Economic Vulnerability AssessmentJune 2020 Findings (released on July 24, 2020)

Saher Asad, Javaeria Qureshi, Taimur Shah, and Basit Zafar*

*Asad: Lahore University of Management Sciences, Qureshi: University of Illinois at Chicago, Shah: Centre for Economic Research in Pakistan, Zafar:

University of Michigan.

Attique Ur Rehman, Adjunct Faculty at LUMS, provided excellent research assistance. We would also like to thank the PIs of various projects (PEOP, Social

Compact, Day Laborers) who provided us with samples for this survey.

EVA Sample CompositionTotal Urban Rural

Sample Size Data collection: June 12 - July 7 2,273 65% 34%

Education

Less than Matric 46% 33% 71%

Matric 20% 23% 14%

More than Matric 34% 44% 15%

Unemployment February 8.7% 10.1% 6.2%

Household Composition

Mean number of people living together 6.3 6.1 6.8

With children aged < 18 76% 73% 82%

With adults aged > 60 34.7% 34.2% 35.3%

Living in same location as Feb 98.2% 98.5% 97.9%

● Rural sample comes from poor districts in south Punjab (see last slide for details on sampling)● Urban sample comes from primarily Lahore and Faisalabad

We plan to conduct a new wave of data collection every other month (with a rotating panel structure)

EVA Sample Comparison with the HIES*Punjab Mean Characteristics EVA HIES 18-19

Urban / Rural Split 65% / 34% 33% / 67%

Mean Household Size, Urban 6.1 5.7

Mean Household Size, Rural 6.8 5.8

Mean Household Monthly Income, Urban Rs. 40,732(February)

Rs. 55,189(Urban Punjab)

Mean Household Monthly Income, Rural Rs. 23,351(February)

Rs. 35,429(Rural Punjab)

● Median Urban Income in Feb for EVA (Rs. 31,000) falls in 40-60th percentile of the Punjab Urban HIES data

● Median Rural Income in Feb for EVA (Rs. 20,000) is comparable to the bottom 20th percentile of Punjab Rural HIES data (Rs. 22,535)

*HIES: Household Integrated Economic Survey

Effects on Income and EmploymentProportion of people who: All Urban Rural

Have lost work between Feb and May 20.0% 18.9% 21.4%

Were unemployed in May 28.0% 28.1% 27.2%

Suffered income loss from Feb to May* 54.0% 58.0% 47.0%

Had income < 17,500 in Feb 24.4% 13.7% 42.0%

Had income < 17,500 in May 47.3% 39.6% 60.0%

*Note that income information is available for 52.3% of the sample only.

● More than half of households suffered income losses● Number of households making below the minimum wage for unskilled labor (defined as income

< 17.5k) roughly doubled from February to May

Households Expect Slight Increase in Income from May

Farmers are expecting or have seen a 10% loss on crop revenue compared to previous harvest

Note: calculations with denominator of 0 have been dropped to calculate % changes

Relative to Income Losses, Spending Losses are Muted

● 25% of respondents report a decrease in household spending from Feb to May● Among those who are reporting a net decrease in spending, the median decrease in spending is

20% of Feb spending● Differences in impacts in rural and urban areas Note: Expected spending period includes Eid ul Adha

Widespread Financial Distress

• 45% of households have missed at least one monthly payment, and a similar proportion expect to miss a payment next month

• In rural areas, over half (54%) of households have missed at least one payment

Households are Most Likely to Miss Electricity Payments

A Third of Households Have Borrowed Money

Needed to borrow money in past two months 32.8%

Mean amount borrowed | borrowing Rs. 57,361

Amount borrowed as proportion of Feb income 190%

Of those who borrowed money, 80% did so from family or friends

Higher Food Insecurity in Rural Areas

Among those who were unable to buy food, 90% state they did not have the money to do so, while 32% cite that some items were more expensive than usual.

Half of the Households Made Some Compromise on Food

Household Composition and Changes4.3% of respondents have family members who returned home in the last two months

Financial factors are the main concerns of Households

Income and Health dominate household concerns

Percentage of Respondents

Top concern is income 43%

Top concern is health 15%

List income in top 3 concerns 70%

List health in top 3 concerns 46%

While income is the top concern, health concerns remain salient for half of households

COVID and Lockdown15.0% of respondents know someone afflicted with COVID-19

COVID Precautions

Other Health Outcomes In the past two months…… % of respondents

Missed required vaccines for a child in their Household 13.3%

Have not gone to Dr / hospital even when sick 6.2%

Report a death in their Family 14.3%

Deaths due to COVID-19 (Conditional on having a Death in Family) 6.8%

Felt anxiety, depression, loneliness, or hopelessness in past 7 days 42.9%

● Households forgoing non-COVID19 care, which can be costly in the long-run

● 43 percent of households report mental distress

Widespread Disruption in Education

● A quarter of households with children are unable to continue education● Of those continuing education, transition has not been smooth for 56% of households● Disruption to education is much higher in rural areas

Appendix: Sampling

The samples from the EVA came from three distinct sources:

1. Random Digit Dialing, based on the subscriber base size and allocated phone number prefixes for all telecommunications companies operating in Pakistan under the jurisdiction of the PTA. Only respondents in Punjab are surveyed.

2. Properties in Lahore and Faisalabad

3. A representative sample of households in four districts of rural South Punjab:

a. Muzaffargarh, Lodhran, Bahawalpur, and Bahawalnagar