united states to mexico natural gas exports congress 2015

A Fact-Led Commercial Evaluation Of Mexico’s Potential As A Natural Gas Market For US Producers And Midstream Companies

Evaluating Commercial Opportunities For US Natural Gas Exports And Condensate Exchange To MexicoQuantifying Mexican Demand For US Natural Gas From The CFE And Large-Scale Industrial Users Of GasUnderstanding Key Regulatory And Infrastructure Drivers

A HOLISTIC VIEW ON MEXICO’S POTENTIAL FOR US NATURAL GAS, CRUDE AND CONDENSATE:

October 28-29, 2015 | Texas

Gathering Market Intelligence On US-To-Mexico’s Natural Gas Exports Scenario From Expert American And Mexican Stakeholders

M Follow us @UnconventOilGas

www.us-to-mexico-natural-gas-exports.com

Register By FridaySeptember 4, 2015

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• ENTIRELY FOCUSED ON MEXICO’S POTENTIAL: This is the only congress entirely focused on prospective opportunities in Mexico for US natural gas producers, midstream companies and traders, presenting analysis case studies and forecasts from both sides of the border

• BUYERS WILL MEET SUPPLIERS: The agenda will present a dual vision covering key aspects from both the sellers (US producers, midstream companies and traders) and buyers (CFE, independent industrial companies from the automotive and petrochemical sectors, as well as Mexican midstream companies and traders) point of view

• PRESENCE FROM KEY REGULATORY BODIES: The congress will count on the presence of key agents within the Mexican natural gas market regulatory framework: CFE (Electricity Federal Commission) and CENAGAS (recently created public organization currently managing PEMEX’s former natural gas transport assets)

• CRUDE AND CONDENSATE EXCHANGE: The congress will not only focus on natural gas market opportunities for US producers and midstream companies, but also crude and condensate exchange

• RISK ASSESSMENT PERSPECTIVES: An entire day will be dedicated to assessing the risk of venturing into the natural gas market in Mexico from various standpoints: politic, safety and security, competition derived from national natural gas production, as well as LNG imports

• INVESTMENT POTENTIAL: The agenda will also present an overview of the investment potential for international entities within the Mexican natural gas infrastructure and logistics sector, providing potential international investors with accurate insights on the market

Jim Tramuto Vice President - Government & Regulatory Strategies Southwestern Energy

David Madero Director General CENAGAS - National Center for Natural Gas Control

Guillermo Zuñiga Commissioner CRE - Energy Regulatory Commission

Raúl Millares Director of Energy Alfa Energía & Newpek

Drew Ward Director - Business Development Kinder Morgan

Langtry Meyer Chief Operating Officer Texas LNG

Arturo Vivar Chief Executive Officer Monterra Energy

Brandon Blaylock Chief Investment Officer FONDO EXI: Mexico Infrastructure Partners

Organized By:

KEY MARKET VARIABLES TO BE ASSESSED:

• MEXICO’S NATURAL GAS DEMAND

OUTLOOK: Ascertaining key public

and industrial sectors driving demand

in Mexico to determine which

Mexican entities and industries are

potential buyers

• CFE: Explaining CFE’s plans to

upgrade the power generation plants

system in Mexico to identify natural gas

demand hubs over time

• CRE: Presenting the latest regulatory

updates from CRE and how these will

impact the Mexican market for US

natural gas exports

• CENAGAS AND THE ENERGY

MARKET OPENING: Understanding

the role of CENAGAS as a mechanism

for limiting the energy monopoly to

guarantee open access to the market

• NATURAL GAS PIPELINE

INFRASTRUCTURE: Evaluating

Mexico’s natural gas pipeline

infrastructure requirements to determine

the capacity, location and gas quality

requirements of planned natural

gas pipelines

• RISK ASSESSMENT

PERSPECTIVES: Evaluating the

potential risk of exporting natural gas

to Mexico from a political, economic,

LNG competition and safety and

security standpoint

• CRUDE AND CONDENSATE

EXCHANGE DEMAND AND LEGAL

ASPECTS: Examining Mexico’s

appetite for imported light crude and

condensate and current US restrictions

on exports to determine opportunities

for crude and condensate exchange

Register By FridaySeptember 4, 2015

SAVE $400

www.us-to-mexico-natural-gas-exports.com (1) 800 721 3915 [email protected]

With a growing demand from its electrical and large-scale industrial sectors, Mexico is set to become a vital market for US natural gas exports.

In the wake of the passing of the Energy Reform, Mexico’s electrical sector is undergoing a profound transformation as the CFE (Federal Electricity Commission, the state-owned power utility) has announced a plan to transform the country’s power generation infrastructure from carbon to combined cycle natural gas plants.

Coincidentally, a surge in pipeline construction across the Texas-Mexico border is underway in line with projections estimating that the flow of United States natural gas to Mexico will have doubled by the end of 2020.

And demand and United States exports have been growing constantly: exports of natural gas from new and expanded cross-border pipelines has nearly tripled from 2010 to 2015.

But what are the reasons behind such a dramatic increase in natural gas demand in Mexico? Will this demand be sustainable over time? And what are the regulatory, economic and logistical implications for suppliers?

These are all key questions operators and midstream companies looking at Mexico as a potential market need to answer in order to understand the scope of commercial opportunities in the Southern neighbor.

The United States To Mexico Natural Gas Exports Congress 2015 will gather key stakeholders to present a fact-led commercial evaluation of Mexico’s potential as a natural gas market for US producers and midstream companies by analyzing the risks associated from various standpoints: economic, political and logistical.

Taking place in Houston on October 28-29, the congress will present a perfect platform for American suppliers and Mexican buyers to meet and strengthen commercial bonds. The agenda will not only be looking at natural gas, but also crude and condensate exchange opportunities and the impact of United States-to-Mexico LNG exports on this thriving market.

JW Marriott Houston

5150 Westheimer Road, Houston, Texas, 77056, USA

Tel: +1-713-961-1500

Web: www.marriott.co.uk

VENUE INFORMATION:

CLARIFYING MEXICAN DEMAND OUTLOOK, REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS AND REQUIRED INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS

Day 1Wednesday October 28, 2015

Day One will analyze current estimations on natural gas and condensate demand in Mexico as well as the new regulatory landscape for natural gas distribution in Mexico and the planned infrastructure developments to ascertain market opportunities for US E&Ps, midstream and engineering companies and traders.

8.50 Chair’s Opening Remarks

KEYNOTE ADDRESS: MEXICO’S DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS9.00 Understanding The Scope Of Mexican Natural Gas Demand To Determine The Scale Of Potential US Exports To Mexico

• Identifying key public and industrial sectors driving demand in Mexico to ascertain which Mexican entities and industries are potential buyers

• Analyzing Mexico’s GDP growth, market dynamics and demographics to estimate whether Mexican demand will sustain in time

• Quantifying aggregated natural gas demand in Mexico to estimate how much imported US natural gas is required to meet local demand

• Assessing expansion plans of manufacturing industries in the North of Mexico to estimate growth trends for Mexican industrial demand of natural gas in the next ten to fifteen years

Juan Marcelo Parizot Murillo, Sub-Director Gas, PEMEX Mexico9.30 Question & Answer Session

KEYNOTE ADDRESS: CRE PERSPECTIVES ON US NATURAL GAS EXPORTS9.40 Understanding Mexican Regulatory Environment To Determine The Scale Of Potential US Natural Gas Exports To Mexico

• Analyzing Mexico’s GDP growth, market dynamics and demographics to estimate whether Mexican demand will sustain in time

• Explaining how the energy structure was established for CRE and the establishment of the legislation to align with the new markets in the sector

• Identifying the major link between the development of natural gas and the country’s general economic welfare

• Understanding the role of independent economic regulator to stand and watch over the energy industry and verify no monopoly is created

• Identifying key public and industrial sectors driving demand in Mexico to ascertain which Mexican entities and industries are potential buyers

Guillermo Zuñiga, Commissioner, CRE - Energy Regulatory Commission10.10 Question & Answer Session

10.20 Morning Refreshments In The Exhibition Showcase Area

MEXICO’S REGULATORY FRAMEWORKEvaluating Mexico’s Current Regulations To Comprehend The Extent To Which Mexico’s Energy Sector Has Shifted From A

Monopoly To A Free Market

CENAGAS AND THE ENERGY MARKET OPENING

10.50 Understanding The Role Of CENAGAS As A Mechanism For Limiting The Energy Monopoly To Guarantee Open Access To The Market

• Analyzing how PEMEX’s former natural gas pipeline assets are being transferred to CENAGAS to limit PEMEX’s monopoly

• Assessing the steps towards the full implementation to CENAGAS to accelerate natural gas pipeline tenders

• Detailing CENAGAS’ schedule for implementing the natural gas pipeline network in Mexico to identify opportunities for business for US midstream companies

• Examining Mexico’s former centralized energy planning system to streamline opportunities for improvement for CENAGAS’ newly implemented regulations

• Understanding the role of CENAGAS as the entity responsible for managing Mexico’s surplus of natural gas pipelines

David Madero, Director General, CENAGAS11.20 Question & Answer Session

HEARING FROM MEXICAN BUYERS OF GASIdentifying Mexico’s Natural Gas Buyers To Fully Understand The Country’s Market Potential As A US Natural Gas Importer

CFE

11.30 Explaining CFE’s Plans To Upgrade The Power Generation Plants System In Mexico To Identify Natural

Gas Demand Hubs Over Time

• Examining CFE’s plans to transform Mexico’s electricity generation system from fuel-power generation plants to combined cycle power generation plants to factor associated demand volumes in the country

• Hearing about the CFE’s strategy to renovate Mexico’s power generation plants to understand which projects are being prioritized over time

• Evaluating CFE’s affordability price cut-offs to anticipate pricing agreements relative for future agreements relative to market conditions

• Discussing lessons learn from recent CFE tenders to understand how these will impact future tenders

• Assessing the changes on the CFE’s regulatory framework derived from the Energy Reform to understand current requirements for long-term natural gas projects associated with power generation plants

12.00 Question & Answer Session

12.10 Lunch In The Exhibition Showcase Area

NATURAL GAS: MEXICAN INDUSTRIAL BUYERS PANEL

1.10 Natural Gas Buyers In Mexico’s Automotive And Petrochemical Sectors Collectively Gauge The Scope Of Mexico’s Industrial Demand

• Quantifying aggregated industrial demand for natural gas to assess how much imported US natural gas is required to meet industrial buyers’ current needs

• Learning about expansion plans for automotive and petrochemical macro manufacturing sites to factor in increased need of natural gas in future industrial demand forecasts and identify its full potential

• Detailing pricing sensitivities amongst Mexico’s major industrial sectors relative to market conditions to identify maximum price points for exporting US natural gas

• Examining logistical requirements for industrial macro plants to strategize gas pipeline developments accordingly

Panelist: Raul Millares, Director of Energy, Alfa Energía & NewpekPanelist : Adrian Duhalt, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, UDLAP & Nonresident Scholar at James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

US NATURAL GAS DEMAND IN MEXICO: A PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY’S PERSPECTIVE1.50 Discussing Internal Natural Gas Demand And Expansion Plans From A Leading Petrochemical Mexican Company To Understand How US Natural Gas Demand From Key Mexican Industrial Sectors Will Grow Over Time

• Outlining Alfa Energia & Newpek’s growth plans focusing on new natural gas usage-heavy assets to present a case describing key drivers behind Mexico’s large-scale industrial demand of US natural gas

• Defining potential areas of collaboration between Mexican industrials and US natural gas producers and midstream companies

• Analyzing current pricing structure for natural gas to identify lucrative opportunities for Mexican industrials

Raul Millares, Director of Energy, Alfa Energía & Newpek2.20 Question & Answer Session

MEXICO´S ENERGY REFORMS AND COMPETITIVENESS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR

2.30 Assessing How Market And Regulatory Changes In Mexico’s Energy Sector Can Foster Greater Competitiveness In The Automotive Industry: Examining Two Fundamental Paths

• Determining how to foster production of natural gas-based petrochemical inputs to encourage production of plastic resins that the automotive and auto parts industries demand

• Answering key questions: What exactly has discouraged increases in polyethylene/ polypropylene production in Mexico? Why has Mexico failed to integrate its petrochemical industry with related manufacturing activities?

• What investments in natural gas infrastructure need to be made and how to lower electricity prices

• Cultivating production of plastics in order to make Mexico’s automotive industry even more competitive

Adrian Duhalt, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, UDLAP & Nonresident Scholar at James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University3.00 Question & Answer Session


NATURAL GAS PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE IN MEXICOEvaluating Mexico’s Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure

Requirements To Determine The Capacity, Location And Gas Quality Requirements Of Planned Natural Gas Pipelines

TIMEFRAMES AND LOCATION

3.10 Examining Plans For Natural Gas Pipeline Developments In Mexico To Determine Estimated Completion Dates, Location And Proximity To Power Generation Plants And Large Manufacturing Sites

• Clarifying natural gas infrastructure plans and how can these be financed to guarantee growth in US natural gas imports

• Comparing completion dates for natural gas pipeline projects with those of planned power generation plants to establish an accurate development timeframe

• Evaluating the location and construction plans of scheduled gas pipeline projects to determine how long it will take to get these pipelines in service

• Examining current cross-border natural gas pipeline plans to determine their receipt and delivery points

Arturo Vivar, Chief Executive Officer, Monterra Energy3.50 Question & Answer Session

4.00 Afternoon Refreshments In The Exhibition Showcase Area

CAPACITY AND GRADING GAS QUALITY DISCUSSION

4.30 Assessing Planned Cross-Border Natural Gas Pipeline Projects To Clarify Its Capacity And Gas Quality Specificities

• Evaluating planned natural gas pipelines development plans to determine available and collection capacities

• Determining maximum capacity of approved cross-border natural gas pipelines to understand the supply levels that will be foreseeably introduced in Mexico

• Clarifying gas quality specificities for planned natural gas pipelines to identify required nitrogen and dryness levels

Panelist: Drew Ward, Director - Business Development, Kinder MorganPanelist: Arturo Vivar, Chief Executive Officer, Monterra Energy

INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CRUDE AND CONDENSATE EXCHANGE

Assessing Refineries And Crude Transport Infrastructure In Mexico To Ascertain Costs And Logistic Limitations For Crude

And Condensate Exchange

PRICE FORECASTS

5.10 Analyzing Natural Gas And Crude Price Forecasts To Estimate The Impact Of Potential Variations In Commodity Prices On Mexican Demand

• Correlating future variations in natural gas prices with Mexican demand shifts to assess market risks associated with pricing

• Clarifying whether natural gas from different US source plays is tied to the Henry Hub index to estimate final market price relative to time

• Understanding logistical cost breakdowns better to reassess Mexico’s market potential as a natural gas and crude importer

• Forecasting transport costs and tariffs to US natural gas to Mexico to assess how these will impact import prices

Robert Gamez, Vice President Operations, RP Partners Oil & Gas5.40 Question & Answer Session

TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS FOR CRUDE EXCHANGE

5.50 Evaluating Current Transportation And Logistics For Crude Exchange To Ascertain Feasibility And Costs

• Examining shipping, rail and trucking as transportation options to determine which option drives logistics cost down per barrel

• Comparing shipping, rail and trucking for crude exchange to determine the most optimum transportation option relative to where refineries are located

• Assessing rail as a transportation option for crude exchange to determine loading and unloading capabilities in Mexican rail infrastructure

• Evaluating SENER’s plans to promote logistical upgrades in Mexico to understand whether there are plans to build crude pipelines in Mexico

Mark E. Luitwieler, Business Development, Flagship Resources6.20 Question & Answer Session

6.30 Chair’s Closing Remarks

6.40 - 7.40 Networking Drinks Reception In Exhibition Showcase Area

Day two will cover risk assessment for natural gas exports to Mexico from several standpoints: political risk, risk derived from competitive gas supplies, safety and security. It will also look at market dynamics and regulations for crude and condensate exchange

8.50 Chair’s Opening Remarks

POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ECONOMIC RISK ASSESSMENT

9.00 Evaluating Mexico’s Socioeconomic Drivers, Legal Security, Political Stability And Future Political Projections From A Risk Assessment Standpoint

• Detailing updates on Mexico’s Energy Reform to assess whether the new regulatory framework guarantees open access to the market and resources

• Analyzing insights on Mexico’s corruption stats to measure the levels of legal security and free competition in the country

• Anticipating US energy policy changes derived from the 2016 election to factor domestic political risk in

Erica Bowman, Vice President of Research and Policy Analysis, America’s Natural Gas Alliance


BURGOS CONVENTIONAL GAS DEVELOPMENT

9.40 Evaluating Development And Production Prospects And Forecasted Cost Structures In The Conventional Section Of The Burgos Basin To Ascertain Whether It Represents A Challenge For Potential US Natural Gas Exports

• Quantifying EUR and expected periodical production rates to understand the scope of natural gas recovery in the Burgos Basin

• Forecasting a cost structure for conventional gas development in the Burgos Basin to determine its economic viability under current gas prices assumptions

• Evaluating logistical characteristics such as transportation and the proximity of gas pipelines

• Examining risks derived from narc cartels, phising and security issues in the state of Tamaulipas

Óscar Roldán Flores, Director General of Statistics and Economic Assessment, CNH (National Hydrocarbons Commision - Government Of Mexico)


10.20 Morning Refreshments In Exhibition Showcase Area

NATIONAL SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT

10.50 Analyzing The Viability Of Exploiting Mexico’s Shale Gas Resources To Understand The Country’s Shale Potential For US Natural Gas Exports

• Clarifying the current cost structure for shale gas operations in the Burgos basin to assess whether current Mexican shale gas development can be economically justified

• Streamlining steps Mexico should take to establish a cost structure for shale gas development as that of the US to determine the feasibility of economically viable shale gas operations in the country

• Examining the geology and volumetrics of Mexico’s shale gas reservoirs to estimate its cumulative production and ultimate recovery figures

• Clarifying where the government stands with regards to shale gas development to understand whether international investment is incentivized

Mario Gabriel Bubedo, Director General, FONDO EXI: Mexico Infrastructure Partners


US NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES - ROUND TABLE

11.30 Analyzing US Natural Gas Supply & Demand Dynamics From Eagle Ford, Permian And Marcellus To Quantify How Much Of That Production Can Be Exported To Mexico

• Correlating Eagle Ford and Permian production rates for the next five years with domestic demand figures to understand whether there is a supply surplus

• Estimating the impact of volatile commodity prices on future US shale gas production rates to determine the impact of price declines on future natural gas supply available for Mexico

• Analyzing whether increased natural gas demand from Mexico and other markets could lead E&Ps to focus on more gas-prone targets

• Evaluating whether rising demand for natural gas from Mexico will impact Eagle Ford gas prices

Jim Tramuto, Vice President - Government & Regulatory Strategies, Southwestern Energy12.00 Lunch In Exhibition Showcase Area

GAS MARKETING: US-TO-MEXICO

1.00 Evaluating Key Market And Logistics Drivers To Move Gas From The US To Mexico And Ensure Open Access To The Market

• Examining supply and demand issues affecting the marketplace

• Detailing known transportation rates and capacity to understand the costs derived from moving gas from the US to Mexico

• Evaluating pricing transparency and pricing hubs to validate economic viability

• Assessing relatively standard contracts and language issues to ensure US-to-Mexico gas marketing operating run smoothly

• Discussing how the Mexican market syncs up to the US market, including nom cycles

John Carmody, Manager, Gas Marketing, Williams


PRIVATE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

1.40 Looking At Mexico’s Natural Gas Infrastructure Planned Upgrades To Identify Opportunities For International Investment

• Evaluating Mexico’s current energy regulations to clarify investment requirements

• Examining long-term natural gas demand across Mexico to estimate potential returns for international investors

• Assessing Mexico’s current government policies on energy to determine whether international investments on the sector are incentivized

• Discussing optimum capital options for international investments in Mexico’s natural gas infrastructure sector

Brandon Blaylock, Chief Investment Officer, FONDO EXI: Mexico Infrastructure Partners


2.20 Afternoon Refreshments In Exhibition Showcase Area

US COMMERCIAL SERVICE SUPPORT

2.50 Hearing how the US Commercial Service is supporting US companies exporting natural gas

• Evaluating available resources through the Federal Government to understand the tools and support American natural gas exporters can be offered

• Understanding how US companies can “crack” Mexico through the right partnerships

• Examining growth opportunities in Mexico for American natural gas exporters

Danielle Caltabiano, Global Energy Team Leader, US Commercial Service


RISK ASSESSMENT: LNG EXPORTS TO MEXICOAssessing The Impact Of Lng Exports To Mexico On The

Demand For Us Natural Gas

IMPACT OF LNG EXPORTS TO MEXICO

3.30 Quantifying Mexican Buyer Interest In LNG To Understand Whether LNG Imports Represent A Challenge For Mexico’s Prospective Natural Gas Market

• Analyzing supply and demand dynamics for LNG in Mexico• Determining the country’s maximum capacity limit to

transport, unload and process LNG and derive whether natural gas demand is sufficiently met

• Evaluating the logistics and location of Mexico’s main planned power generation plants and large industrial manufacturing sites to determine whether LNG is an efficient energy option for buyers’ needs

Langtry Meyer, Chief Operating Officer, Texas LNG


CRUDE AND CONDENSATE EXCHANGE: DEMAND AND

LEGAL ASPECTSExamining Mexico’s Appetite For Imported Light Crude And

Condensate And Current Us Restrictions On Exports To Determine Opportunities For Crude And

Condensate Exchange

CRUDE AND CONDENSATE EXCHANGE: MARKET &

LEGAL ASPECTS

4.10 Analyzing Mexico’s Demand For Light Crude And Condensates To Evaluate The Size Of Future Exchange Opportunities

• Defining American demand of heavy oil and Mexican demand of light crude to streamline crude exchange strategies

• Evaluating Mexico’s demand of coke-heavy mine crudes to identify potential exchange opportunities

• Analyzing logistics costs and taxation to determine whether it makes economic sense for US producers to exchange crude with Mexico

• Determining PEMEX’s appetite for Eagle Ford light crude to estimate the size of the potential crude exchange market in Mexico

• Breaking down asphaltene stabilization issues for Eagle Ford light crude to understand whether mixing Eagle Ford light crude with Mexican mine crudes will cause technical problems

• Evaluating exceptions to the US Commerce Department ban on crude exports to determine limitations to crude and exchange limitations

• Evaluating requirements to obtain a BIS approval to allow crude exchange with Mexico

• Forecasting the implications of the 2016 US Presidential Election on the likelihood of crude exports being approved by the US Commerce Department

• Analyzing NAFTA energy regulations to understand whether these allow for Mexico and the United States to exchange crude and condensate


4.5 0 Chair’s Closing Remarks And End Of Conference

Day 2Thursday October 29, 2015

ASSESSING THE ASSOCIATED RISKS OF EXPORTING NATURAL GAS AND LNG FROM THE US TO MEXICO AND EXCHANGING CONDENSATES AND CRUDE TO ESTIMATE EXPECTED RETURNS FOR SUPPLIERS


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