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Agenda Member Presentation – 23 October 2014 1 TOPIC PRESENTER UniSuper Advice Adam McCarthy Senior Private Client Adviser Investment Update John Pearce Chief Investment Officer Questions

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Page 1: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Agenda

Member Presentation – 23 October 2014 1

TOPIC PRESENTER

UniSuper Advice Adam McCarthy

Senior Private Client Adviser

Investment Update John Pearce

Chief Investment Officer

Questions

Page 2: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation

28 October, 2014

Adam McCarthy

Senior Private Client Adviser

Page 3: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Disclaimer

The information contained within this presentation is intended to provide general advice only. It has been prepared without taking into account

your objectives, financial situation or personal needs. Prior to making any investment decisions, you should speak with a financial adviser to

consider whether this information is appropriate for your needs, objectives and circumstances.

You should obtain a copy of the relevant product disclosure statement (PDS) prior to making a decision regarding any investment in any

financial product.

UniSuper defined benefits (including defined benefit pensions) are not guaranteed and are subject to the risk that the pool of assets supporting

them may not be sufficient to meet all of UniSuper’s defined benefit obligations. In the event of prolonged underfunding, clause 34 of UniSuper’s

trust deed provides a mechanism for defined benefits to be reduced on a fair and equitable basis. A clause 34 monitoring period was recently

concluded and it was resolved to reduce the defined benefit formula from 1 January 2015 by changing the way Benefit Salary is determined as it

applies to service on and after 1 January 2015. This change does not affect defined benefits or pensions that become payable before 1 January

2015. There are three further clause 34 monitoring periods in place, concluding on 30 June 2015, 30 June 2016 and 30 June 2017.

This information is current as at July 2014 and is based on our understanding of legislation at that date.

Information relating to the 2014/15 Federal Budget is based on our understanding of the proposals. The information provided in this presentation

in relation to these announcements is subject to change and certain proposals may not become effective until they are enacted by Parliament.

You should not rely on this information and it should be verified prior to making any decision

The information contained in this presentation is not legal, taxation or accounting advice. Professional advice should be obtained before making

any decisions. Whilst care has been taken in the preparation of this information, the accuracy or completeness of the information is not

guaranteed.

This presentation was prepared and issued by UniSuper Management Pty Ltd ABN 91 006 961 799,

AFSL No: 235907, which is also the administrator of, and wholly owned by, the UniSuper Superannuation fund

(ABN 91 385 943 850). UniSuper Limited (ABN 54 006 027 121) is the trustee of the fund. If you would like to contact us please do so on 1800

331 685 or alternatively send us an email to [email protected]

3

Page 4: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

UniSuper’s awards – super & pensions

SuperRatings, a superannuation research company,

has awarded UniSuper a Platinum rating for its

Accumulation products and Flexi Pension product.

SuperRatings Infinity Recognised is awarded to super

funds that clearly demonstrate excellent sustainable

business practices and responsible investment

principles. Go to www.superratings.com.au for details

of its rating criteria. SuperRatings does not issue, sell,

guarantee or underwrite this product

Chant West, has awarded UniSuper a 5 Apples rating

for its Accumulation products and Flexi Pension

product. Further information about the rating

methodology used by Chant West, see

www.chantwest.com.au

4

Page 5: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Agenda

5

Deeming Changes

Transition to Retirement (TTR) Pensions

Superannuation Splitting

Superannuation Re-Contribution

UniSuper Advice

Page 6: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Deeming Changes

6

Page 7: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Annual Pension deemed

Annual Pension less deduction

amount

Centrelink Deeming Changes

On 1 January 2015, changes will be made to the assessment of

account-based Pensions for Centrelink income test purposes

7

Account-based Pension

Commencement Date

Assessment of pension income

under Centrelink’s Income Test

Before 1 January 2015

1 January 2015 onwards

Page 8: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Example

Margaret, age 65 and single, commences an

account based pension with $500,000 drawing an

income stream of $35,000 p.a.

8

Account-based Pension

Commencement Date

Assessment of pension income

under Centrelink’s Income Test

Before 1 January 2015 $11,873

($35,000 – ($500,000/21.62))

1 January 2015 onwards $16,780

(48,000 x 2%) + ($452,000 x 3.5%)

Additional amount assessed $4,907

Annual Pension less deduction

amount

Annual Pension deemed

Page 9: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Example

Margaret, age 65 and single, commences an

account based pension with $500,000 drawing an

income stream of $35,000 p.a.

9

Account-based Pension

Commencement Date

Assessment of pension income

under Centrelink’s Income Test

Before 1 January 2015 $11,873

($35,000 – ($500,000/21.62))

1 January 2015 onwards $16,780

(48,000 x 2%) + ($452,000 x 3.5%)

Additional amount assessed $4,907

Page 10: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Commonwealth Seniors Health Card

The Commonwealth Seniors Health card is available to self-funded retirees.

Eligibility is based on adjusted taxable income (ATI)*

single ATI less than $51,500 p.a.

couples ATI less than $82,400 p.a.

The card provides concessions for:

Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and other medical services

From 1 January 2015 untaxed superannuation income to be included in the

eligibility assessment

1 January 2015 deeming rules will apply

10

*ATI = taxable income + foreign income + net investment losses + reportable super contributions + reportable fringe benefits

Page 11: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Transition to Retirement (TTR) Pensions

11

Page 12: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

What is transition to Retirement (TTR)?

12

The drawing of a concessionally taxed income stream from your

superannuation savings while still working

Fully Taxable Salary

Rollover Superannuation Account

TTR Pension Account

Income Stream

• Age 55-59 (concessionally taxed)

• Age 60+ (tax-free)

Page 13: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

The drawing of a concessionally taxed income stream from your

superannuation savings while still working

Earnings taxed at 15%

Tax free investment earnings

Transition gradually into retirement

Reduce working hours without reducing level of income

May free up additional income to fast-track debt repayment

Combined with salary sacrificing:

- Creates potential tax savings

- May boost retirement savings

Earnings tax-free

Why a TTR Pension?

13

Page 14: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Superannuation Splitting

14

Page 15: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Superannuation Splitting

15

A great way to boost a spouse’s superannuation savings

Allows the transfer of concessional (before-tax) contributions into

a partner’s superannuation account including:

- Salary sacrifice contributions

- Employer (superannuation guarantee) contributions

- Deductible contributions (e.g. for self employed)

Receiving spouse must be under their preservation age (55 –

60) or between their preservation age & 65 and not retired

Conditions apply: see Super contribution splitting with your

spouse fact sheet at www.unisuper.com.au for full details

Page 16: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Superannuation Re-Contribution

16

Page 17: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

A superannuation re-contribution

17

The withdrawal from a superannuation account re-contributed back as an

after-tax (non-concessional) contribution

Reduces the taxable component and increases tax-free component

By reducing the Taxable component, subsequent tax applied to this

component may be minimised and potentially beneficial where a:

- Lump sum death benefit is payable to a non tax dependant

- Reversionary pension is taxable

Superannuation

Account

Bank Account

Withdrawal

Re-contributed

Page 18: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

UniSuper Advice

18

Page 19: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Why UniSuper Advice?

19

Fee for service

All advisers are salaried

All commissions are rebated to the client

Advice Fee can be debited directly from a member’s Flexi

Pension or accumulation account, so long as the advice relates to

superannuation and or superannuation related retirement

planning

UniSuper Advice is a Financial Planning Association (FPA)

Professional Practice

Page 20: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Why UniSuper Advice?

20

95% of UniSuper Comprehensive Advisers have the

internationally recognised CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER

(CFP®) certification

Call UniSuper Advice today on 1300 331 685 for a

complimentary initial assessment on the level of advice

that might suit you

CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® and are certification marks owned outside the U.S. by Financial Planning Standards Board Ltd. Financial Planning Association of Australia Limited is the marks licensing authority for the CFP Marks in Australia, through agreement with FPSB.

Page 21: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

How we add value

21

Scenario – Couple, turning 60, DDB/Accumulation members, retiring in 5

years time. Looking to maximise wealth leading up to retirement.

Advice – Salary sacrifice, TtR pensions, Investment strategy, and Estate

planning.

Results

- $ 7,724 pa tax savings from salary sacrifice

- $ 4,547 pa tax savings via TtR pensions

- $12,271 pa total benefit

- Estate planning certainty and tailored investment approach (what price?)

……………………………..Advice Fee = $3,300 (100% deductible from the Fund)

Page 22: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014

Any questions?

22

Page 23: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Investments Update

John Pearce

Chief Investment Officer

Member Presentation 23 October 2014

Page 24: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

We will be commenting on market trends and historical returns.

Past events are not an indicator of future events.

This is not advice and does not take into account your circumstances.

Before making decisions about your superannuation, read our PDS (available on our website) and consider your own circumstances and whether to seek financial advice.

24

Page 25: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Agenda

1. Global economy; doing ok but big regional differences

2. Key risks to rising markets

3. Another era of “Financial Repression”

4. UniSuper and Westfield; our “interesting” relationship

5. To annuitize or not to annuitize?

6. Option Performance

Page 26: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

World GDP Growth Real GDP since December 2007

Global growth has been running at around trend since the GFC, with strong emerging economies offsetting weak advanced economies

26

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

World GDP Long Run average

World GDP growth

ann % ch

Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

Global Adv EM

Index (Dec 07 = 100)

Page 27: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Equity markets vs. GDP Equity markets since pre-GFC peak

In general, share markets have recovered in line with GDP although disparities exist; Emerging market equities (and Australia) have lagged despite relatively stronger economies

27

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

World GDP World Equities

Equity Markets vs GDP

Index (Oct 07 = 100)

Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13

World Advanced Emerging Australia

Index (Oct 07 = 100)

Page 28: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

China slowing; short term negative but medium term positive

Over-valuation; Equities are about fair value relative to history, but

cheap relative to bonds

Fed Tightening?

Geo-Political?

28

Key risks to a rising market

Page 29: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

0

1

2

3

4

5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Federal funds target rate

29

The US Federal Reserve assures us that higher rates are a considerable time off. But ...

Rates can stay low

“for a considerable

period” Fed Dec ‘03

statement

%

Page 30: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Source: Macquarie Research, FactSet, May 2014. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

30

Equity returns have usually been positive in the year after the first hike as it takes time to slow the economy

Page 31: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

31

S&P 500 index around military invasions and conflicts (1973-1983)

Source: Bloomberg. April 2014. Equity index represents price returns. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Page 32: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

32

S&P 500 index around military invasions and conflicts (1991 - today)

Source: Bloomberg. April 2014. Equity index represents price returns. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Note: it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Page 33: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

War zone countries as a percentage of total world:

Population 11.7%

Oil production 9.0%

Foreign direct investment 3.8%

GDP 3.0%

Trade 2.6%

Gross capital formation 2.4%

Corporate profits 0.8%

Equity market capitalisation 0.7%

Interbank claims 0.5%

Portfolio investment inflows 0.4%

33 Sources: IMF, United Nations, BP, MSCI, Bloomberg, BIS, World Bank, WTO, JP Morgan

Page 34: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Return in excess of inflation has been achieved despite massive market

dislocations created by wars, natural disasters and asset bubbles

34

Australian share market returns over the last century

DECADE ENDING DECADE RETURN % P.A. AFTER INFLATION

1910 11.7

1920 3.1

1930 17.2

1940 9.7

1950 4.0

1960 9.0

1970 10.4

1980 -6.6

1990 9.2

2000 8.2

2010 5.9

Average 7.4

* Calculated from Credit Suisse Investment Returns Source Book, MSCI and ABS data. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Page 35: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Another era of financial repression

Page 36: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

36

Another age of debt

Source: “The Liquidation of Government Debt”, Reinhart and Sbrancia, 2011

Ad

va

nce

d e

co

no

mie

s

Gro

ss d

eb

t a

s %

of G

DP

WWI and Depression debts

WWI debts Second Great Contraction

Page 37: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Default

Works, but is messy

Austerity

Doesn’t actually work

Inflation (Financial Repression)

Inflating revenues faster than interest costs actually works, but

there are winners and losers

37

Dealing with debt

Page 38: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Nominal interest rates are capped below the rate of inflation i.e.

negative real interest rates

Encourages investment required for economic growth and capital

formation

Facilitates deleveraging as nominal income grows faster than debt

38

Financial repression

Page 39: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

G7 plus Switzerland and Spain lowest since 1855

US base rates lowest since 1790

UK base rates lowest since 1694

Netherlands base lowest since 1517

“never before was so little paid to so many…” Adapted by Churchill

39

Page 40: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

40

The great repression

Developed countries with negative 2-year bond yields

Ireland

Belgium

Germany

Denmark

Switzerland

Finland

France

Netherlands

Austria

Page 41: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

41

The great repression

In 2007, 23 out of 25 developed countries had 10-year yields above 3%. Today …

Portugal

New Zealand

Greece

Iceland

Australia

Page 42: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Consider the experience of a retail investor in a very large ($130

billion) US cash fund

The fund primarily invests in short-dated US government obligations

$10,000 invested on 1 July 2008 would have grown to $10,193

by 30 June 2014

The inflation adjusted value of the original $10,000 is $10,881 over the

same period

The investor has lost more than 6% of their purchasing power

This is akin to the government borrowing $100 in 2008 and repaying

$94.00 in 2014

It is a wealth transfer from saver to borrower

42

Financial Repression in action

Page 43: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Dec

-19

81

Dec

-19

82

Dec

-19

83

Dec

-19

84

Dec

-19

85

Dec

-19

86

Dec

-19

87

Dec

-19

88

Dec

-19

89

Dec

-19

90

Dec

-19

91

Dec

-19

92

Dec

-19

93

Dec

-19

94

Dec

-19

95

Dec

-19

96

Dec

-19

97

Dec

-19

98

Dec

-19

99

Dec

-20

00

Dec

-20

01

Dec

-20

02

Dec

-20

03

Dec

-20

04

Dec

-20

05

Dec

-20

06

Dec

-20

07

Dec

-20

08

Dec

-20

09

Dec

-20

10

Dec

-20

11

Dec

-20

12

Dec

-20

13

Consumer Price Inflation (Year-on-year)

Retail Bank 3mth term deposit rate

43

Australia’s milder version of repression

Source: RBA, Bloomberg

GST

Introduced

Page 44: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

A long time

Most countries have barely made headway in reducing their debt

burdens. Demographics are putting further strain on the fiscal

outlooks

If history is any guide, financial repression episodes can persist for

many years or decades. In the post war years to 1980 in Australia:

» 81% of the time real interest rates were lower than 2%

» 48% of the time real rates were negative

Post-war 10-year US government yields stayed below 4% until the

early 1960s

44

How long can it last?

Page 45: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

To annuitize or not to annuitize?

Page 46: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

An annuity is a financial product that provides a regular sum of

money for a pre-determined length of time

They can starting either immediately or in the future (deferred)

Lifetime annuities are (not surprisingly!) paid until the death of the

policyholder(s)

46

Lifetime annuity

Page 47: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Reasons typically given:

We are said to have an “equity” culture (manifesting in the

popularity of flexi-pensions)

Annuities are not compulsory/incentivised as in many other

countries

Members don’t like the lack of flexibility and access

Some may see the aged pension as effectively providing annuity

protection

Or is it simply the case that they are too expensive?

47

Why aren’t lifetime annuities popular in Australia?

Page 48: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Initial income from these three investment strategies

48

Comparing an annuity purchased in 1985 relative to a share or property portfolio

Average dividend yield was 4.5% net or 5.7% gross of franking credits

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f in

itia

l ca

pit

al p

aid

ea

ch y

ea

r

Purchasing an Annuity in 1985 relative to buying a share or property portfolio

Dividend stream from equities Rental stream from property Proceeds from an annuity commencing in 1985

The annuity pays around $9 in the first year

The property portfolio generated a rental income of $7.50 in 1985

The share portfolio generated a dividend (gross of franking) of $5

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Page 49: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

The annuity perfectly matches inflation and life expectancy

49

Comparing an annuity purchased in 1985 relative to a share or property portfolio

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

init

ial

cap

ita

l p

aid

ea

ch

ye

ar

Purchasing an Annuity in 1985 relative to buying a share or property portfolio

Dividend stream from equities Rental stream from property Proceeds from an annuity commencing in 1985

Paid until death of the annuitant

The initial annuity value was calculated using the IM80 life tables, with assumptions relating to mortality improvement. The investment return

assumption was set to 13.2% and an inflation assumption of 6% was used. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Page 50: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Dividend Return from Australian shares (ASX 100 Industrials)

50

Instead of buying an annuity one could… …invest in a portfolio of shares

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

init

ial

cap

ita

l p

aid

ea

ch y

ea

r

Purchasing an Annuity in 1985 relative to buying a share or property portfolio

Series1 Rental stream from property Proceeds from an annuity commencing in 1985

Dividends have grown by around 6% p.a. since 1985

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f in

itia

l ca

pit

al p

aid

ea

ch y

ea

r

Purchasing an Annuity in 1985 relative to buying a share or property portfolio

Dividend stream from equities Rental stream from property Proceeds from an annuity commencing in 1985

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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Rental Return from Australian unlisted property

51

Instead of buying an annuity one could… …invest in a portfolio of unlisted property

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

init

ial

ca

pit

al

pa

id e

ach

ye

ar

Purchasing an Annuity in 1985 relative to buying a share or property portfolio

Dividend stream from equities Series2 Proceeds from an annuity commencing in 1985

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f in

itia

l ca

pit

al p

aid

ea

ch y

ea

r

Purchasing an Annuity in 1985 relative to buying a share or property portfolio

Dividend stream from equities Rental stream from property Proceeds from an annuity commencing in 1985

Rental income has grown by around 3% p.a. since 1985

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

init

ial

ca

pit

al

pa

id e

ach

ye

ar

Purchasing an Annuity in 1985 relative to buying a share or property portfolio

Dividend stream from equities Rental stream from property Proceeds from an annuity commencing in 1985

52

What would have happened from 1985?

Purchasing an annuity in 1985 relative to buying a share or property portfolio

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The collapse in bond yields significantly increases the cost of

annuities

UniSuper’s Commercial Rates Indexed Pension currently provide a

65 year old $58,128* p.a. for a $1.27 million investment

53

Lifetime annuity

ASFA June 2014 Retirement Standard for a couple’s comfortable lifestyle http://www.superannuation.asn.au/resources/retirement-standard

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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YEAR ANNUITY

ASX 100 INDUSTRIAL

EQUITY PORTFOLIO

UNLISTED DIRECT PROPERTY

PORTFOLIO

RATE OF INCREASE

PRICE INFLATION ($M)

DIVIDEND GROWTH RATES

($M)

RENTAL GROWTH RATES ($M)

1985 0.7 0.9 0.8

1994 0.8 1.1 0.7

2004 1.0 1.0 0.8

2014 1.3 0.9 0.8

54

Comparison of capital levels required to finance $58,128 p.a.*

Now more expensive than relying on dividends from an equity portfolio But note that dividends can (and often do) fall in value

Annuity values were calculated using the IM80 life tables, with assumptions relating to mortality improvement. The investment return assumption was set to the long bond yield and inflation

assumption was based on break even inflation expectations at the time (but approximated in 1985 due to a lack of historical data)

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Value of portfolio on death

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Millio

ns

Years after retirement

share portfolio growing at 6% p.a.

share portfolio growing at 3% p.a.

share portfolio growing at 0% p.a.

Value of annuity with a 10 year guarantee

55

What happens on death of the retiree?

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The main benefit of Annuities is that they perfectly match one’s lifespan and hedge

the annuitant from the risk of rising price inflation

However, as a consequence of the GFC, in the era of “financial repression”, bond

yields have been driven to historically low levels

The consequence of a fall in bond yields (and increasing life expectancy) is that

annuities are now very expensive relative to other assets; for example

» A share portfolio of Industrial stocks now delivers an initial dividend yield of

6.5%, which is higher than the total return that a 65 year old can obtain from a

life annuity with inflation protection

» The current income yield on the Australian listed property sector 4.6% (which is

about the same as total return for annuities)

However, capital values of shares and property can fluctuate, sometimes

dramatically; the appropriateness of any investment strategy depends on one’s risk

tolerance.

56

Summary

Page 57: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

57

Yield oriented investment options

Low risk High risk

Page 58: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Option Objectives

Provide income yield greater than ASX300 (currently 4.5% for 2014)

» note that franking credits can increase income yield by an additional 1.5%

Provide capital growth potential

Suitable for

Investors who want equity exposure with a preference for blue-chip, high yielding

equities, as distinct from general equity market exposure which includes higher

risk/higher growth companies

Investors able to benefit from franking credits (i.e. superannuation funds)

Risks

Volatility associated with equity markets, which can result in large fluctuations in

capital values

Investment time horizon has to be long term (i.e. five years or longer)

58

In search of yield Australian Equity Income Option

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Australian Equity Income vs. ASX300 (Cumulative Returns)

In search of yield Australian Equity Income Option

59

STOCK NAME PORTFOLIO WEIGHT (%)

DIV YIELD

(NET %)

DIV YIELD

(GROSS %)

CBA 9.0 5.2 7.5

TELSTRA 8.9 5.5 7.8

WESTPAC 8.8 5.6 8.0

TRANSURBAN 8.4 4.5 4.9

ANZ 8.1 5.5 7.9

WOODSIDE 6.3 6.0 8.6

NAB 6.0 6.0 8.6

WOOLWORTHS 5.2 4.0 5.7

IAG 5.2 6.3 9.0

WESFARMERS 5.1 4.7 6.7

Top 10 Holdings

Source: Net and Gross dividend yields sourced from Goldman Sachs 1year forward yield data

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

Apr2012

Jul2012

Oct2012

Jan2013

Apr2013

Jul2013

Oct2013

Jan2014

Apr2014

Jul2014

Ind

ex V

alu

e

Aust Equity Income (After Tax and Fees)

ASX 300 (After tax and Fees)

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Woolworths Share Price vs. Dividend per Share

60

Example of a key AEI holding: Woolworths Consistent earnings and dividends – what GFC?

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Div

iden

d P

er S

har

e

Shar

e P

rice

FY End DPS Price

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61

CBA shares

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

($) ($)

Dividend Per Share (RHS) Share Price (LHS)

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Option performance

Page 63: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

63

Funding status of the 100 largest US corporate DB plans

Source: Milliman Pension Funding Index, 2014

-5%

15%

35%

55%

75%

95%

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1/1

1/2

009

1/0

1/2

01

0

1/0

3/2

010

1/0

5/2

010

1/0

7/2

010

1/0

9/2

010

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011

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011

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011

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012

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012

1/1

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01

2

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013

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013

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013

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013

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014

Cum

ula

tive sto

ck m

ark

et re

turn

Solv

ency o

f th

e D

efined B

enefit pla

ns

Funding status of the 100 largests corporate DB PLANS

100 Largest US Corporate DB Plans US Stock Market

Page 64: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

64

Funding status of the 100 largest US corporate DB plans

-5%

15%

35%

55%

75%

95%

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1/1

1/2

009

1/0

1/2

010

1/0

3/2

010

1/0

5/2

010

1/0

7/2

010

1/0

9/2

010

1/1

1/2

010

1/0

1/2

011

1/0

3/2

011

1/0

5/2

011

1/0

7/2

011

1/0

9/2

01

1

1/1

1/2

011

1/0

1/2

012

1/0

3/2

012

1/0

5/2

012

1/0

7/2

012

1/0

9/2

012

1/1

1/2

012

1/0

1/2

013

1/0

3/2

013

1/0

5/2

013

1/0

7/2

013

1/0

9/2

013

1/1

1/2

013

1/0

1/2

014

1/0

3/2

014

Cu

mu

lative

sto

ck m

ark

et re

turn

So

lve

ncy o

f th

e D

efin

ed

Be

ne

fit p

lan

s

Funding status of the 100 largests corporate DB PLANS

100 Largest US Corporate DB Plans US Stock Market Australian Stock Market

Page 65: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

65

Funding status of the 100 largest corporate DB plans

-5%

15%

35%

55%

75%

95%

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1/1

1/2

009

1/0

1/2

010

1/0

3/2

010

1/0

5/2

010

1/0

7/2

010

1/0

9/2

010

1/1

1/2

010

1/0

1/2

011

1/0

3/2

011

1/0

5/2

011

1/0

7/2

011

1/0

9/2

011

1/1

1/2

011

1/0

1/2

012

1/0

3/2

012

1/0

5/2

012

1/0

7/2

012

1/0

9/2

012

1/1

1/2

012

1/0

1/2

013

1/0

3/2

013

1/0

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013

1/0

7/2

013

1/0

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013

1/1

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1/0

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1/0

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Cum

ula

tive sto

ck m

ark

et re

turn

Solv

ency o

f th

e D

efined B

enefit pla

ns

Funding status of the 100 largests corporate DB PLANS

100 Largest US Corporate DB Plans UniSuper's DBD US Stock Market Australian Stock Market

Page 66: UniSuper 101 An introduction/media/files/slide... · 10/23/2014  · Member Presentation – 28 October, 2014 Disclaimer The information contained within this presentation is intended

Relative performance to 30 September 2014

Option 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years

High Growth Q1 Q2 Q1 Q1

Growth Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

Balanced Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

Conservative Balanced Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

Capital Stable Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

Cash Q2 Q2 Q2 Q1

Australian Shares Q1 Q1 Q2 n.a

International Shares Q1 Q1 Q1 n.a

66 Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Rankings relate to our pension (not accumulation) options based on the

Super Ratings survey for the period ended 30 September 2014 as published on 21 October 2014.