uniapravi was founded on 1964, and it is an international ... congress 2013/2... · 3 household and...
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Of. Central Bajada Balta 169, 4º Piso, Lima 18, Perú Casilla Postal 18-1366
Teléfonos: (51-1) 444-6605/444-6611/444-6975, Fax: (51-1) 444-6600
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.uniapravi.org
UNIAPRAVI was founded on 1964, and it is an international private institution, non profit organisation
which is part of the advisory Committe of the Economic ans Social Council of the United Nations.
It has over 200 members of 27 countries in the American Continent
Population in Latin America
118,6
67,6
28,4 28,017,3 15,0 11,1 8,2
2,0
194,9
113,7
46,140,9
30,0 29,8
17,4 15,03,6
Brasil México Colombia Argentina Perú Venezuela Chile Ecuador Panamá
1980 2011
Population in Selected Countries 1980-2011* (million people)
•The population in Latin America has grown 1.7 times in 30 years
- FMI – World Economic Outlook –
1.6 V
1.7 V
1.6 V 1.5 V 1.7 V 2.0 V 1.6 V 1.8 V 1.8 V
2
MÉXICO 2012
3
Household and Housing growth in
Latin America 2010 to 2020
During the present decade the number of new households will
increase by nearly 50 million - and they will demand over 40
million new houses in the middle and large cities
4
The major challange is to plan, finance and develop over 20 million
houses in the largest 35 cities in Latin America until the year 2020
This will require investments in Infrastructure, housing and
mortgages in the size of 1,3 trillion USD
Housing in Latin America’s Largest Cities
2010 to 2020
Strategic Goals 2020
1. Public and Private coordination that promotes the
creation of long term institutions
2. Develop a stronger real estate market and a deeper
financial system in order to reach 4% of GNP
3. Use the Housing sector as a driving force in economic
development
4. Promote the development of competitive cities with
urban desing, that create wealth, employment and
sustainable growth.
Challenges in Creating
New Houses and Cities
Land
Urban Development
Infrastructure
Construction
Mortgages
6
The value chain of the housing sector considers the
following key elemets that integrate supply and
demand Land
Legal framework and urban planning
City infrastructure and utilities
Housing development
Demand creation
Subsidies and savings
Mortgage financing and funding
1,800,000
Land Infrastructure Construction
Savings
& subsidies
Mortgage
finance
3,500,000
2013 2015
2017 2019 2021
Permits
Housing Process as a Pipeline
Units
Units
Developing the Supply
Supply elements
1. Urban development - formal and Informal improvement of present conditions
2. Urban planning for new communities
3. Financing the municipal services and utilities
4. Government sponsored entities and development banks
5. Public and private policies and coordination
6. Capital investment
Land Infrestructure Savings
& subsidies
Mortgage
finance Permits
Construction
Fuente: Softec
Unidades Valor Total
Distribution of Latin America´s Housing Inventory
Media 100m2
( 55,000 -100,000 USD)
Entry Subsidised 45m2
(10 -20,000 USD)
Social 50m2
(20 -55,000 USD)
Residencial 200m2
(100-200,000 USD)
35% of the housing stock represents
75% of the value of houses
0
%
100%
60%
40%
20%
80%
150 million
Ban
ks
M
ort
ga
ge
an
d S
&L
Residencial Plus 350m2
(> 200,000 USD)
Rural 30m2
7,200 trillion USD
Urban development: formal vs informal
Disorder in the use of land and development
Use of land in high risk areas and
without the proper legal ownership
Explosive migration to the cities
Disorder in the
development of formal
vs informal solutions
Before After
Projects that regenerate inner Cities
Before After
Mexico 1990 -2010
• In the last 20 years Mexico’s housing stock grew by 15 million
houses, from 21 million to 36 million dwellings
• Eight million houses were produced by the industrial process and
seven million in a disordered way
• The challenge is to reduce the informal production that has
limitations in terms of legal ownership, municipal services and
capital formation
Distribution of Mexico´s Housing Inventory
Urban planning
• In the last ten years, innitiatives for better land and city
organization have been developed
• The organization of urban development has been more
on a project by project basis
• This has improved the conditions of the housing
developments because
– It is legal and complies with local requirements
– It creates wealth for the families
– It can be financed
– It has a lower negative impact on resources and
promotes sustainability and ecological measures
14
Public and Private Policies
• In the Latin American region, a key element for better urban
development is the formulation of public and private long term
policies.
• The role of the Government is very important. It creates the conditions
for new developments and city planning
• The introduction/development of infrastructure – water, sewage, roads
and electricity – remains under goverment control
There have been interesting initiatives in Brazil and Mexico:
– Ministries that integrate housing, infrastructure and land use
– Advisory boards with members from the federal goverment, local
autorities, private sector and experts
– Long term vision and economic development as the key driving
force
19
1. ESTRUCTURA ORGANIZACIONAL MINISTERIO DE LAS CIUDADES
SECRETARIA
NACIONAL DE
HABITACIÓN
SECRETARIA NACIONAL
DE PROGRAMAS
URBANOS
MINISTRO
SECRETARIA NACIONAL
DE TRANSPORTE Y
MOVILIDAD URBANA
CONSEJO DE LAS CIUDADES
SECRETARIA NACIONAL
DE PROGRAMAS
URBANOS
SECRETARIA
NACIONAL DE
HABITACIÓN
SECRETARIA NACIONAL
DE PROGRAMAS
URBANOS
SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
SANEAMENTO AMBIENTAL
SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
HABITACIÓN SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
PROGRAMAS URBANOS
CBTU
TRENSURB
DENATRAN
GABINETE
CBTU
TRENSURB
CBTU
TRENSURB
CONSEJO DE LAS CIUDADES
CBTU
TRENSURB
GABINETE
CONSEJO DE LAS CIUDADES
CBTU
TRENSURB
GABINETE
CONSEJO DE LAS CIUDADES
CBTU
TRENSURB
DENATRAN SERETARIA EXECUTIVA
GABINETE
CONSEJO DE LAS CIUDADES
CONTRAN
CBTU
TRENSURB
SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
HABITACIÓN SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
PROGRAMAS URBANOS
SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
SANEAMENTO AMBIENTAL
SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
HABITACIÓN SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
PROGRAMAS URBANOS
SECRETARIA
NACIONAL DE
HABITACIÓN
SECRETARIA NACIONAL
DE PROGRAMAS
URBANOS
SEDATU
URBAN AND REGIONAL
INFREASTRUCTURE
CONSEJO DE LAS CIUDADES
SECRETARIA NACIONAL
DE PROGRAMAS
URBANOS
SECRETARIA
NACIONAL DE
HABITACIÓN
SECRETARIA NACIONAL
DE PROGRAMAS
URBANOS
SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
SANEAMENTO AMBIENTAL
SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
HABITACIÓN SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
PROGRAMAS URBANOS
CONSEJO DE LAS CIUDADES CONSEJO DE LAS CIUDADES CONSEJO DE LAS CIUDADES
COMISION
INTERSECRETARIAL
CONSEJO DE NACIONAL DE
VIVIENDA
SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
HABITACIÓN SECRETARIA NACIONAL DE
PROGRAMAS URBANOS
URBAN AND LAND
REGULATIONS HOUSING LAND REGISTRY
J Yarza Wien 2013
Challenges in Creating
new Houses and cities Demand
Formal vs Not Formal
Income
Mortgage availability
21
The Demand for Housing
1. Increasing the disposable income
2. Subsidies
3. Savings
4. Mortgage market development
Demand elements
Land Infrastructure Savings
& subsidies
Mortgage
finance Permits
Construction
Economic Outlook
2.294
1.662
716
472374 302 300
127 51
FMI – World Economic Outlook
17.516 17.222
14.610 14.09712.568
11.76910.249 10.062
8.492
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
GNP 2011 (Billions USD – PPP) GNP per capita 2011 (USD – PPP)
•The economic outlook is positive and the economy is expected to continue to grow in the
future throughout Latin America
•There has been a continiuous growth in consumption and wealth
23
Employment
Asobancaria Colombia 2012 24
76% 70% 70% 70% 66% 66%
60% 56% 54%
48% 47% 47% 44% 43% 42% 38% 32%
24% 30% 30% 31% 34% 34%
40% 44% 46% 52% 53% 53% 56% 57% 58% 62%
68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% Informalidad % Formalidad
Urban Employment in Latinamerica
MÉXICO 2012
J Yarza Vienna 2013
25
Middle Class formation
• Throughout the region there has been an increase in the formation of
middle class families
• These families have used their homes as a source of capital formation
• In the next ten years we will see an upward mobility of the families in
Latin America
Income Distribution in Brasil
Income Distribution in Mexico
Relationship of the Banking assets to GNP
Fontes: Global Property Guide, Bancos Centrais
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Mexico Brasil Chile Colombia España India UK USA
11% 6%19%
5%
45%
3%
73%86%
25%
47%63%
32%
110%
35%
150%
210%
Cartera Bancaria e Hipotecaria
Cartera Hipotecaria /PIB Cartera Bancaria/PIB
The banking system in Latin America has the potential to grow;
in the next decade, it might achieve a size comparable to
European countries.
Rates and Payments
27
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
8,00%
10,00%
12,00%
Mexico Brasil Chile Colombia Perú
Delinquency Rate %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Mexico Brasil Chile Colombia Perú
Inflation and Mortgage Rates
Tasa H
tasa CT
INPC
• Interest rates are at a low point in this moment, allowing families to enhance
their buying capacity at a reasonable monthly payment
• Delinquency rates are relatively low, considering the effects of the crisis and
the growth of the mortgage portfolio
J Yarza Wien 2013
Challenges in Creating
New Houses and Cities Forecast for 2013
Conclusions
Best Practices
29
Mortgage Finance Fundamentals Expected to GROW in 2013
We expect the 2013 mortgage market activity level to be larger than last year’s
level for a number of reasons, including:
1. Interest rates are forecasted to remain at current low levels during the next
12 months;
2. Low cap rates are expected and moderate levels of price increases
3. Housing sales are expected to remain healthy in metro areas with solid
forecasted fundamentals
4.The moderate funding for construction loans will influence below-average
construction starts;
5. The expectation of continued improvement in job growth.
30
2012 Economic recovery Housing as a key driving force Subsidies Housing sector 2% of GNP
2015 Housing as social & economic driving force Shared vision of the housing sector Mortgage sector as key element Urban planning Housing sector 3% of GNP
2020 Integration of the real estate markets Development of housing, mortgage and stock markets Competitive cities Green agenda Housing sector 4% of GNP
• Housing for Latin America
• 50 millon houses
• 1.3 Trillion USD
Strategic Vision 2010-2025
Competitive
cities and
regional
economics
Public &
private
coordination
Urban
planning for
housing and
cities
Develop
mortgage and
financial
system
Wealth
creation and
social
mobility
Reduce
poverty and
targeted
subsidies
Conclusions
There are six strategic lines that need to be pursued