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1 Copyright 2017 EKOS Research Associates Understanding the Shifting Meaning of the Middle Class By FRANK GRAVES March 2017

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Page 1: Understanding the Middle Class - Final Report · » Over 40% of working class say they were middle class a decade ago –this fall from relative privilegeis linked to anger, hopelessnessand

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Copyright 2017 EKOS Research Associates

Understanding the Shifting

Meaning of the Middle Class

By FRANK GRAVES

March 2017

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Copyright 2017 EKOS Research Associates

» This report represents a synthesis of public opinion findings from EKOS and others to help understand Canadians’ attitudes regarding what it means to be middle class today.

» This report was prepared for the Privy Council Office, and follows a review of the academic literature which looks at the evolving forces shaping the middle class from an economic and sociological perspective.

» The views expressed in this report are those of EKOS Research Associates, Inc., and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Canada.

Introduction

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» Issues related to the middle class are extremely salient to the public.

» The confusion and disagreement evident among commentators does not reflect the clarity and salience within the public.

» The longer-term literature examining structural forces tends to be closer to the public’s view on the middle class crisis.

» There is broad agreement that the ‘middle class dream’ and shared prosperity are not working in the 21st century.

Executive summary (i)

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» Tepid growth and an acceleration of the concentration of wealth and income at the very top of society are critical factors.

» The evidence is that positive intergenerational mobility is declining, particularly as we move from older to younger Canada.

» Self-defined middle class membership has been declining, but the magnitude of the decline needs to be more clearly understood.

» ‘Middle class’ is now all about the conspicuous absence of security, and no longer defined by progress where skills and effort produce forward movement.

Executive summary (ii)

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» The public are increasingly rejecting neo-liberalism and conditionally receptive to a more active role from the state to come up with a blueprint (and action) to restart middle class progress.

» While self-defined class membership is very positively associated with income and education, there are even more powerful linkages to health and happiness.

» Workplaces are a microcosm of the macro problems discussed above.

» While there is a model associated with prosperity and wellbeing in the workplace, the trajectory for the key ingredients of that model is downward.

Executive summary (iii)

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» A foremost concern evident at both the micro and macro levels is declining emphasis on skills and knowledge.

• Despite a consensus that Canada had to become “smarter,” Canadians are less apt to view higher education or the professions requiring it as priorities.

» Of great concern, it appears that the era of stagnation and rising inequality at the top may have mutated into a rise in populism, nativism, and an “ordered” outlook (also known as an “authoritarian” outlook).

» There is an urgent need to provide an updated empirical platform which refreshes and connects these key areas on a unified database, preferably using U.S.-Canada and (possibly other) cross-national comparisons.

Executive summary (iv)

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Copyright 2017 EKOS Research Associates

1) Summary of Literature Review

2) The Meaning of the Middle Class

3) The End of Progress?

4) Sources of Middle Class Decline

5) Conclusions

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Why values?

» The literature review describes a host of factors contributing to stalled middle class progress.

» Rapidly growing income inequality, stagnating incomes, downward intergenerational mobility and jobs that are unsatisfying and poorly paid all factor in.

» Miles Corak underscores two stories – one positive, one negative - that can be drawn from the literature and the statistics.

» He also notes that rising inequality is associated with declining intergenerational mobility.

» Our research first identified the extent of the End of Progress in 2012. The problem appears to have worsened since then.

Literature review (i)

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Why values?

» There are a few particularly important works to note:

• Darren Acemoglu, Why Nations Fail: Shows what happens when incentive systems fail and institutions become extractive, rather than inclusive.

• Thomas Piketty, Capital in the 21st Century: Uses tax data to show the long term patterns of inequality.

• Robert Gordon, Rise and Fall of American Growth: Points to the end of middle class progress in the 1980s as neoliberal policiestook hold and notes how little the “digital revolution” has revolutionized the economy.

Literature review (ii)

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Copyright 2017 EKOS Research Associates

Why values?

» The Brexit vote and the U.S. election have brought even more focus to the issues of middle and working class angst.

» One of the more pertinent post-U.S. election pieces connects the fall of the white working class from the middle class as a critical and misunderstood force. (1)

» There is a clear connection between the literature and the polling data.

» However, the public views the issues through an even darker lens.

Literature review (iii)

(1) Joan C. Williams, “What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class”,

Harvard Business Review, November 10, 2016. Available online at: goo.gl/vYvGJF

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1) Summary of Literature Review

2) The Meaning of the Middle Class

3) The End of Progress?

4) Sources of Middle Class Decline

5) Conclusions

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Meaning of “middle class”

» Where being “middle class” once conveyed a sense of upward mobility and progress within and across generations, this has changed.

» We find the definition of “middle class” has shifted to mean security – in old age, in one’s job, in finances overall.

» Having a better life than one’s parents, knowing that your children will do better and affording luxuries are less important.

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74

Being middle class is mostlyabout one’s income

Being middle class is mostly astate of mind

DK/NR

BASE: Canadians; July 16-23, 2014 (n=2,620), MOE +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20

Meaning of “middle class”

Q. The term "middle class" means different things to different people. Some say

that being a member of the middle class is mostly about one's income

levels, while others say it is mostly a state of mind, which includes a sense

of security and progress. Which of these statements comes closest to your

own point of view?

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151095736122

5250

434844

4336

302826

3238

4246475256

686870

Not important (1-2) Somewhat important (3-5) Important (6-7)

Being able to retire with a secure income

Having a secure job

Being financially secure

Knowing that you will be rewarded for hard work and skill

Having an income that is around the middle levels of society

Owning a house

Having enough income to afford a few luxuries

Knowing that your children will be better off financially than you

Having a better life than your parents

Feeling a sense of a community with the average workers and citizens of society

BASE: Canadians; July 16-23, 2014 (n=2,620), MOE +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20

Meaning of “middle class”

Q. How important are the following aspects to your definition of what it means

to be middle class?

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Statistical profile of the middle class

» We conducted an analysis of just who the self-defined middle class are.

» The relationship between self-identified middle class status and income is positive and highly significant (Gamma =.71). This is very important.

» There are a number of clear correlates of middle class membership:

• In addition to the critical income link, there is a powerful connection to education.

• Visible minorities and people with disabilities are less likely to be members but there are little effects by gender and region (apart from Quebec, where more describe themselves as middle class or poor).

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Statistical profile of the middle class (ii)

» There is a fairly strong connection to age with the probability of belonging to middle class dropping as we move from older to younger Canada.

» The results by age support the notion that middle class progress is eroding as the younger generation are less apt to define themselves as middle class.

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3119

203

36

9121110

11

3534

1117

4743

2632

3044

33

2945

6978

4919

5853

5341

50

32

19510

6244

4

Poor Working class Middle class Upper Class

National

<3535-4950-64

65+

<$40K$40-80K

$80-120K$120K+

Vis. Min.Disability

BASE: Canadians; June 30-July 7, 2015 (n=1,067), MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20

Self-rated social class

Q. Would you describe you and your household as poor, working class,

middle class or upper class?

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Copyright 2017 EKOS Research Associates

Change in social class vs. 10 years ago

» When respondents are asked what social class would have described them 10 years ago vs. today, the results lean towards downward mobility.

• 18% say they have moved down in social class vs. 10 years ago, while 13% say they have moved up.

» Over 40% of working class say they were middle class a decade ago – this fall from relative privilege is linked to anger, hopelessness and less healthy and happy lives.

» Notably, the smaller poor class shows the most downward mobility with around 2/3s newly joining the poor.

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Copyright 2017 EKOS Research AssociatesBASE: Canadians; Dec. 15, 2016 – Jan. 19, 2017, n=7,188, MOE +/- 1.2%, 19 times out of 20

Change in self-defined social class vs. 10 years ago

Perceived Social Class 10 years agoHow would you have described you and your household

ten years ago?

Downwardly mobile: 67%

Poor

Working class

Middle class

Upper class Upper class: 48%Middle Class: 50%

Working class: 1%Poor: 1%

Upwardly mobile: 52%

Upper class: 3%Middle Class: 81%Working class: 13%

Poor: 2%Upwardly mobile: 15%

Downwardly mobile: 3%

Upper class: 1%Middle Class: 41%

Working class: 51%Poor: 7% Upwardly mobile: 7%

Downwardly mobile: 42%

Upper class: 0%Middle Class: 34%

Working class: 33%Poor: 28%

Current Social ClassWould you describe you and your household as poor,

working class, middle class or upper class?

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Self-rated social class and health

» There is an extremely strong association between class membership and self-rated health and quality of life.

» The data show that as you move up the class ladder, happiness and health dramatically improve.

» By corollary, downward mobility is associated with worse health and happiness.

» This suggests a myriad of critical policy implications.

» Given health and happiness connections this is not simply a matter of economic security; there are profound connections to social policy issues as well.

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5

6

11

35

14

26

34

39

79

68

55

26

Poor (1-2) Fair (3) Good (4-5)

Poor

Upper class

Working class

Middle class

BASE: Canadians; Dec. 15, 2016 – Jan. 19, 2017, n=7,188, MOE +/- 1.2%, 19 times out of 20

Personal health rating by social class

Q. How would you rate your health?

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4

8

19

38

9

13

21

30

87

79

60

32

Dissatisfied (1-4) Neither (5-6) Satisfied (7-10)

Poor

Upper class

Working class

Middle class

BASE: Canadians; Dec. 15, 2016 – Jan. 19, 2017, n=7,188, MOE +/- 1.2%, 19 times out of 20

Life satisfaction by social class

Q. How satisfied are you with your life as a whole right now?

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1) Summary of Literature Review

2) The Meaning of the Middle Class

3) The End of Progress?

4) Sources of Middle Class Decline

5) Conclusions

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Why values?

» In 2005, we first noted that progress was not unfolding as it had in the last half of the 20th

century.

• Since then, this problem has gotten worse, not better.

End of progress?

» Economy has morphed and middle class bargain broken.

» Economic outlook is very bleak, darker for the future.

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Why values?

» Younger generations are much more likely to be falling backward and see an even steeper decline in future.

» Among those younger than 45, downward intergenerational mobility is three times higher than it is among seniors.

» The dominant priority for the public is to create a longer term blueprint to restore middle class progress.

» The core driver of both ‘Brexit’ and the U.S. presidential election outcome was economic stagnation and class resentment.

End of progress?

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56

69

24

15

16

12

Q. Overall, which of the following choices do you believe best describes Canada’s middle class?

BASE (right): Canadians; July 16-23, 2014 (n=2,620), MOE +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20

Shrinking

Pessimistic

Growing

Optimistic

(1-3)

(1-3) (5-7)

(5-7)Stayingthe same (4)

Neither (4)

5

86

8Disagree (1-3)Neither (4)Agree (5-7)DK/NR

Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement:

“A growing and optimistic middle class is an essential component of

societal progress”

Proposition 1: IF a healthy society and a strong economy require a growing,

optimistic middle class

Proposition 2: AND IF the middle class is neither growing nor optimistic

Implication: THEN societal health and economic progress will be in peril if these negative conditions persist

BASE (left): December 7-10, 2015 (n=1,811), MOE +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20

Why values?A troubling syllogism?

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Worse (1-3) The Same (4) Better (5-7)

5 31 33 32

BASE: Canadians; December 8-11, 2016, n=1,228, MOE +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20

Medium-term financial outlook

Q. Thinking ahead over the FIVE YEARS or so, do you think your personal

financial situation will be better or worse than it is today?

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Worse off About the same Better off

5 36 26 33

BASE: Canadians; December 8-11, 2016, n=2,433, MOE +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20

Changes in quality of life over last 25 years

Q. Thinking about your overall quality of life, would you say that you are

better off, worse off, or about the same as the previous generation was

25 years ago?

We find very similar results when testing “Standard of Living” as we do with “Quality of Life.”

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52

59

61

30

28

28

18

13

10

Worse off About the same Better offBASE: Canadians; December 8-11, 2016, n=2,433, MOE +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20

» Fears are highest when turned to the future.

» The grey outlook on the present turns almost black as the public ponder the fate of future generations.

» It appears that we have at least temporarily reached the end of progress, the defining achievement of liberal capitalism.

2014

2005

Generational outlook & social class

2016

Q. Thinking about your overall quality of life do you think the next generation will be better off, worse off, or about the same as you are 25 years from now?

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74

The middle class is shrinkingand falling backward

The middle class is doingreally well

DK/NR

BASE: Canadians; July 16-23, 2014 (n=2,620), MOE +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20

Perceived state of Canada’s middle class

Q. Some say that the middle class is shrinking and falling backward and that

restoring middle class progress is the critical challenge of our time. Others

say the middle class is doing really well and that this notion of middle class

crisis has been manufactured by policy wonks and it really isn't an issue at

all. Which statement comes closer to your point of view?

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International comparison

Vietnam 91%

China 88%

Ethiopia 84%

Nigeria 84%

India 74%

Burkina Faso 71%

Chile 67%

Peru 65%

Senegal 64%

Brazil 61%

Ghana 56%

Argentina 55%

Uganda 52%

Indonesia 51%

Israel 51%

Pakistan 51%

Philippines 51%

Russia 48%

Ukraine 48%

South Africa 47%

Kenya 43%

South Korea 43%

Mexico 41%

Turkey 40%

Venezuela 36%

Germany 34%

Poland 34%

Tanzania 33%

Jordan 32%

U.S.A. 32%

Palestine 31%

Spain 31%

Malaysia 30%

Canada 27%Australia 26%

U.K. 25%

Lebanon 24%

Japan 18%

Italy 15%

France 14%

Country Country2015 2015

% saying better off

Q. When children today grow up, will they be

better off financially than their parents?

Source: Pew Research Center, Global Indicators Database (2015)Available online at: goo.gl/iPGgza

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1) Summary of Literature Review

2) The Meaning of the Middle Class

3) The End of Progress?

4) Sources of Middle Class Decline

5) Conclusions

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Why has middle class progress stalled? (i)

1. Incentive systems are broken; rising inequality• For example: superstar economy, burgeoning executive

compensation, huge shift of portion of the economy going to wages versus rent on capital.

2. Public sphere and taxation in decline• As inequality at the top has risen in all OECD countries,

taxation has declined, as has the size of the state.

3. The corrosive economic impacts of the post-9/11 security ethic• Closing of the Canadian (Western) mind?

• The gap between the growth in the first decade of NAFTA and the second decade is enormous ($1 trillion+)

• September 11th bifurcates these two periods, as does the emergence of a ‘security ethic’.

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Why has middle class progress stalled? (ii)

4. Eroding workplaces• Graham Lowe & Frank Graves (2016)(2)

5. Innovation not generating the advances of past innovations• See Robert Gordon (2016)(3)

• See Robert Reich (2015)(4)

(2) Lowe, Graham S., and Frank Graves, “Redesigning Work: a Blueprint for Canada's Future Well-Being and Prosperity”,Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2016.

(3) Gordon, Robert J., “The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War”, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2016.

(4) Reich, Robert B., “Saving Capitalism for the Many, not the Few”, New York, NY: Knopf, 2015.

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6

4

7

3

2

2

12

22

11

13

3

5

57

45

48

46

38

25

25

29

34

39

57

69

DK/NR Not important (1-2) Somewhat important (3-5) Important (6-7)

Excessive concentration of wealth at the top

Wage and income stagnation

Diminished role of government in providing universal social programs

Sharp decline in corporate and individual tax rates

Decreased unionization

Rising success of “other” economies such as China and India

BASE: Those who say middle class has declined/stagnated; July 16-23, 2014 (n=2,191), MOE +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20

Causes of middle class stagnation/decline

Q. How important are each of the following factors in causing the

stagnation or decline of Canada’s middle class?

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Source: Piketty, Thomas, and Arthur Goldhammer. Capital in the twenty-first century. CambridgeMassachusetts: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2014. Print.

Income inequality in Anglo-Saxon countries

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Copyright 2017 EKOS Research AssociatesBASE: Canadians; July 8-14, 2016, n=1,003, MOE +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20

16

2557

2Agree (5-7)

Neither (4)

Disagree (1-3)

DK/NR

Consequences of inequality

Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement:

“If the current patterns of stagnation among all except those at the

very top continue, I would not be surprised to see the emergence of

violent class conflicts”

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2

3

4

2

3

73

21

17

12

10

8

15

9

9

10

17

61

71

77

77

DK/NR Disagree (1-3) Neither agree nor disagree (4) Agree (5-7)

When no one but the super rich are moving forward, it robs the economy of the incentives which drive middle

class progress

Inequality today is not simply the gap between rich and poor, but more about the growing gap between the very

rich and everyone else

I think that almost all economic growth or progress over the past twenty years has ended up in the hands of the

upper one per cent

If the difficulties of younger citizens continue to worsen, I wouldn’t be surprised to see very serious conflicts between younger and older generations in the near

future

Income inequality is not an important public issue

BASE: Canadians; July 16-23, 2014 (n=2,620), MOE +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20

Attitudes towards inequality

Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statements:

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Why values?

» Governments and taxation in decline as economy stagnates and inequality accelerates.

• Legitimacy crisis?

» Declining support for trickle-down economics and neo-Liberal economic model government has been espousing since 1980s/1990s.

» Right now, the public are onside with an activist government that will renew the public sphere and create shared economic progress.

Role of government & public institutions

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6966

6159

62

57 5754

3134

3941

38

43 4346

25

35

45

55

65

75

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Smaller government Larger government

Why values?

BASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20

Preferred size of government

Q. Generally speaking, which of the following would you say that you favour: 1) a larger

government with higher taxes and more services; or 2) a smaller government with

lower taxes and fewer services?

Note: Figures adjusted to exclude those who skipped the question.

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12

13

18

27

46

47

55

41

42

40

27

32

DK/NR Smaller government Larger government

Poor

Upper class

Working class

Middle class

BASE: Canadians; Dec. 15, 2016 – Jan. 19, 2017, n=7,188, MOE +/- 1.2%, 19 times out of 20

Role of government by self-defined social class

Q. Generally speaking, which of the following would you say that you favour?

1. A larger government with higher taxes and more services

2. A smaller government with lower taxes and fewer services

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202830

434648484851525456

63676869

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Home and community care

Arts and heritage activities and institutions

Reducing post-secondary tuition

Renewing urban infrastructure

Targeted tax relief for the middle class

Funding to help businesses dev. products/services

Paying down the debt

Early childhood development

Investments to make progress on climate change

Workplace training

Improving living conditions for indigenous peoples

Across-the-board tax cuts

Loans to attract and retain high tech. businesses

Childcare

New military purchases

Combating terrorist threats such as ISIS

BASE: Canadians; Dec. 15, 2016 – Jan. 19, 2017, n=7,188, MOE +/- 1.2%, 19 times out of 20

Preferred areas of investment

Q. Suppose you were Prime Minister for a day and you had to choose how to invest one

billion dollars over the next 10 years. Which of the following investments would be in

the best interest of the public?*

*Presented in series of paired choices. Figures represent how often each item was selected over the other items tested.

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» At the turn of the 20th century, we saw unbridled enthusiasm for trade and globalization.

» Since then, however, a variety issues has led to more guarded views on globalization and trade:

• Economic stagnation and anxiety about the future

• Geopolitical tensions and security concerns

• Aging

» Hardening attitudes to presence of visible minorities, softening support for trade liberalization, and declining support for foreign direct investment support thesis that we are closing – not opening – as a society.(5)

Closing of the Canadian mind?

(5) Frank Graves, “Understanding the New Public Outlook on the Economy and Middle-Class Decline”,SPP Research Papers, University of Calgary, February 2016. Available online at: goo.gl/D3MEMI

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» Economic anxiety and fears of a vanishing middle class way of life were key themes in the recent U.S. election.

» In the view of many, these concerns “activated” an “ordered” outlook during the campaign. (6)

• The “ordered” outlook is characterised by the desire for swift and decisive action, as well as retribution against those seen as the cause of the problems. (7)

» The precedence of economic factors is evident in the result: there was twice as much economic output in Clinton-won states than in Trump-won states (Brookings institution).

» It is not so much economic determinism as a complex, mutual interaction across economic and cultural factors.

Have economic anxieties given rise to an “ordered” outlook?

(6) The rise of American Authoritarianism, http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism(7) Fear and Hope: Understanding the National Mood, http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2016/07/fear-and-hope-understanding-the-national-mood/

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6

80

132

Disagree (1-3)

Neither (4)

Agree (5-7)

DK/NR

BASE: Canadians; December 7-10, 2015 (n=1,811), MOE +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20

Perceived need for new blueprint

Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following

statement:

Canada needs a clearer plan or blueprint to restore a growing

and optimistic middle class

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Why values?

» Workplace values, morale, and quality of working life have all declined

» Confidence in skills has declined as workplace training has declined

» What works for older workers isn’t working for younger workers

» In the midst of this malaise, workers are hunkering down, which evades solutions

Rethinking workplaces

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Why values?

» Troubling increase in ‘precarious’ work.

» Men earning less / Wage stagnation.

» Stress problems much more common.

» Workers less likely to see value in their work/engage in training and innovation.

» Claims about increased labour market instability may be exaggerated.

• A stable 60% of workers have switched careers (meaning 40% have stayed in the same line of work).

Rethinking workplaces

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16 17 2014 14 13

21 20

1417

12 10 12

19

67 6668

76 74 76

5861

46

2117

32

21

11

17

69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7)

21 32 46

Note: Figures adjusted to exclude those who skipped the question.BASE: Canadians; December 8-11, 2016, n=1,209, MOE +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20

Confidence in job skills

Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement:

I am confident that I have the skills and knowledge necessary to move

easily in today’s labour market

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1724

3234

4147474748525556

6666

0 20 40 60 80 100

Increase access to fin. so sm. bus. can commercialize research

Encourage greater use of new technology in traditional sectors

Invest in the research capacity of universities

Encourage young Cdns into fields like science/engineering

Tax incentives for companies to invest in R&D

Simplify regulations to allow companies to be more innovative

Increase funding for R&D at gov’t research facilities

Cut corporate taxes

200167646970484954

28

BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-18, 2016, n=1,622, MOE +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20

*Presented in series of paired choices. Figures represent howoften each item was selected over the other items tested.

Promote Canada to attract more foreign investments

Promote Canada internationally as centre of innovation

Make it easier for skilled immigrants to get prof. certification 253641

Greater commercial use of discoveries from gov’t/uni. research

Invest in the skills development of Canadians

Increase access to post-secondary education

445237

Best way to improve innovation

Q. If you had to decide what was the best way for the Government of Canada

to improve the overall level of innovation in the country, would it be...

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1) Summary of Literature Review

2) The Meaning of the Middle Class

3) The End of Progress?

4) Sources of Middle Class Decline

5) Conclusions

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» Collapse of middle class bargain defining problem of our age.

• Trickle-down economics has been laid bare as a cruel hoax, in the view of many Canadians.

• The public have given the government a strong mandate to pursue a bolder, more ambitious, more progressive federal government.

• Public have largely abandoned the minimal government model.

Conclusions (i)

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» The public are looking for a new blueprint to restore shared prosperity.

• This blueprint must include a plan for restoring optimism about the next generation.

» The end of progress and middle class decline appear to have activated an “ordered” outlook and desire for decisive leadership.

» Closing of the Canadian mind and growing search for ‘order’ may preclude some of the essential solutions.

» The U.S. election outcome and ‘Brexit’ appear to have been driven to a significant extent by economic stagnation and class resentment.

• At the very least, these were defining themes of the winning campaigns in both contests.

Conclusions (ii)

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» While populism and nativism are important influences, they appear to have been engaged by economic stagnation and a magnified sense of external threat.

• These forces are at play in Canada. Over the past decade, we’ve found a growing proportion of Canadians (41% in 2015) feel that of the immigrants coming to Canada “too many” are visible minorities.(8)

• Attitudes like this are a particular concern given the rights to freedom from religious and cultural discrimination embedded in the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

• More definitive testing is needed to confirm and explore these findings.

Conclusions (iii)

(8) Understanding the New Public Outlook on the Economy and Middle Class Decline: How FDI Attitudes are

Caught in a Tentative Closing of the Canadian Mind. https://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/fdi-canada-graves.pdf

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» Workplaces are revealing disturbing declines in morale, skill confidence, and innovation.

• Rising stress and declining work-family balance.

• The problems are more acute for younger workers.

» Sharp decline for federal involvement in education/skills is a problem as Canadians are looking for a smarter, more agile, and value-added economy.

» The dominant view that a smarter Canada would be a more successful Canada has eroded.

Conclusions (iv)

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» While middle class status is tightly connected to income and education, there is an even stronger connection to health and well-being.

» As the movements have clearly been from middle to working and lower class, this suggests a larger problem than simply a stagnant economy.

» A healthy middle class is also a precondition for health and happiness.

Conclusions (v)

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» There are troubling blindspots and there are rapidly shifting perceptions of social class, economic outlook and world view.

» These forces become much clearer in comparative research (e.g., Canada, U.S., U.K.).

» There is little in the way of a single, comprehensive data set of the experiences and attitudes that speak to middle class anxiety.

Suggestions for future research

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» Middle class economic concerns that have given way to an ordered outlook that is poorly understood.

» As the appetite for more active government increases, it remains unclear what the expectations of the federal government are in this new turbulent social context.

Suggestions for future research

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For more information:

FRANK GRAVES

EKOS Research Associates

[email protected]

(613) 235-7215

ekos.comCopyright 2017 EKOS Research Associates