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Understanding the Dutch tourism market Norway

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Page 1: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Understanding the Dutch tourism market Norway

Page 2: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Index

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Norway

NBTC-NIPO Research

Auteur Ad Schalekamp

Mimir & Innovative Opplevelser

| © NBTC-NIPO Research

1. The Dutch Holiday market in 2010 p. 4

2. Outbound holiday market p. 9

3. Distribution of the holiday market p. 15

4. The Dutch holiday market tomorrow p. 19

5. Developments on the supply side p. 36

6. Holidays in the future? What does the consumer want? p. 39

7. Forecast key indicators p. 44

8. Holidays in Scandinavia p. 47

9. Dutch visitors profile in Scandinavia p. 61

10.Market potention p. 64

11.Suppliers in the Netherlands of holidays to Norway p. 67

Page 3: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

NBTC-NIPO Research (NNR)

Joint venture between TNS NIPO and NBTC (Dutch Tourist board)

USP: combined and in depth knowledge of the tourism market, market research and marketing

Market Research Bureau specialised on the Dutch Travel and leisure market

Established in 2001

Three market monitors:

• Continuous Holiday Survey (CVO)

• Continuous Leisure survey (CVTO)

• Continuous Business Travel Survey (CZO)

We also carry out numerous ad hoc surveys about country images and branding, feasibility studies, segmentation studies etc.

Understanding the Dutch tourism market >

3

Page 4: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

The Dutch Holiday market in 2010

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 5: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Methodology

TNS NIPObase

Since 1980

4 measurements a year, each reviewing the past 3 months

n = 6.500, representative for the Dutch population as a whole

short and long holidays

• Each stay away from home for relaxation or pleasure with at least one overnight stay. Staying with family, friends or acquaintances abroad is also considered as a holiday.

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch Holiday market in 2010

5

Page 6: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

In 30 years, the holiday participation degreased with 11 percentage points.

The average number of holidays undertaken by Dutch, doubled in 2010 compared to 1980

Holiday participation Holiday frequency

* Trend break in 2002 Source: CVO

* Trend break in 2002 Source: CVO

1,842,00

2,432,58 2,57

2,77 2,84

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005* 2010*

70% 68%

75%77% 79% 81% 81%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005* 2010*

Participation and frequency

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch Holiday market in 2010

6

Page 7: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

For the last 30 years, the amount of outbound holidays increased more than the amount of domestic holidays

Since 1980, the biggest grow in holidays is seen in the short and medium range holidays

Holiday destination Holiday duration

NB

x mln. vakanties

x mln. vakanties

NB

11,4 11,1

14,6

16,3 16,717,3 17,7

7,8 7,5

10,8

12,3

13,9

17,1

18,4

0,51,2 1,6

2,22,8

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005* 2010*

Binnenland Buitenland (incl. ICA) Buiten Europa

6,55,8

9,1

10,711,6

12,212,9

4,7 4,7

6,9

7,98,4

10,711,2

8,0 8,1

9,410,1

10,611,5

12,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005* 2010*

Kort (2-4 dagen) Middellang (5-8 dagen) Lang (9+ dagen)domestic outbound (including intercontinental

* Trend break in 2002 Source: CVO

outbound – outside of Europe

x mln. holidays

x mln. holidays

* Trend break in 2002 Source: CVO

short (1-4 days)

medium range (5-8 days)

long (9+ days)

Destination and duration

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch Holiday market in 2010

7

Page 8: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Holiday spend

13,0

10,4

2,6

13,8

11,1

2,7

15,3

12,6

2,7

15,1

12,3

2,8

15,0

12,2

2,8

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

totaal buitenland binnenland

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

x miljard eurox billion Euro

total outbound domestic

Holiday spend decreased in 2010

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch Holiday market in 2010

8

Page 9: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Outbound holiday market

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 10: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Development outbound holiday market

Holiday participation riced in 2010. Number of holidays stayed the same level and holiday spend increased

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 +/-

holiday participation 58.3% 59.8% 61.6% 60.5% 61.7% +2%

number of holidays (x million) 16.8 17.6 18.5 18.4 18.4 0%

holiday spend (x billion euro) 10.4 11.1 12.6 12.3 12.2 -1%

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Outbound holiday market

10

Page 11: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Holiday destination (1)

Neighbour countries Germany, France and Belgium most popular by Dutch

536

616

782

803

1.009

1.168

1.545

1.572

1.996

2.854

3.233

0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000

Scandinavia

Greece

Great-Britain

Turkey

Italy

Austria

Intercontinental

Spain

Belgium

France

Germany

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

amount of holidays x 1,000

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Outbound holiday market

11

Page 12: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Holiday destination (2)

Amount of Intercontinental and Mediterranean Sea holidays increased in 2010

1.545

4.993

11.891

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

Intercontinental Mediterranean Sea area Rest of Europe

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

amount of holidays x 1,000

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Outbound holiday market

12

Page 13: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Transport

The number of holidays by airplane increased in 2010 by 5% and the number of outbound holidays by car decreased by 1%

10.034

6.272

660 770 694

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

car airplane train bus other

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

amount of holidays x 1,000

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Outbound holiday market

13

Page 14: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Accommodation

In 2010 less outbound holidays in apartments and holiday parks. More outbound holidays in hotels and at family and friends places

254

543

742

857

857

992

1.063

1.591

1.805

2.003

7.210

0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000

camper

pension / B&B

mobile home

private home

separate holiday house

tent

caravan

family / friends

holiday park

apartment

hotel / motel

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

amount of holidays x 1,000

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Outbound holiday market

14

Page 15: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Distribution of the holiday market

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 16: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Organization

Number of package- and tailor-made holidays decreased by 3% in 2010. More holidays with organized transport and organized accommodation via travel organization

6.002

2.166

11.031

7.632

4.591

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

package- and

tailor-made

holidays

organized

transport

accommodation

via travel

organization

accommodation

booked directly

no

arrangements

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

amount of holidays x 1,000

Basis: all touristic holidays

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Distribution of the holiday market

16

Page 17: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Booking of holiday (1)

69% of the pre-arranges holidays booked via internet

4854 57 61

69

2825 23

2116

16 14 14 13 112 2 2 1 18 7 6 6 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

%

other

in writing

agency

telephone

internet

Base: all pre-arranges holidays

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Distribution of the holiday market

17

Page 18: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Booking of holiday (2)

18.5 million of the pre-arranged holidays booked via internet

11.805

13.78314.980

16.266

18.509

6.935 6.479 6.105 5.5424.3384.007 3.601 3.720 3.497 2.903

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

internet telephone agency

Base: all pre-arranges holidays

holidays x 1,000

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Distribution of the holiday market

18

Page 19: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 20: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

The market environment model

Climate

change / sustainability Holiday

supply

Demand for

holidays

Demographics

Social Cultural

Geopolitical

Economy

Technology

Social Cultural

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

20

Page 21: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

The market environment model - Economy

Climate

change / sustainability Holiday

supply

Demand for

holidays

Demographics

Social Cultural

Geopolitical

Economy

Technology

Social Cultural

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

21

Page 22: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Source: CBS & NBTC-NIPO Research, CVO

Relationship between economy & holidays

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

Economic growth Purchasing power

Number of holidays Holiday spend

CVO trend break

Index, 1997 = 100

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

22

Page 23: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Effects of crisis on holiday market

Number of holidays stabilising, spend falling slightly

Consumer looking for „value for money‟

• Some examples:

• Growth for Turkey and Egypt in 2010 (all-inclusive/costs are clear in advance)

• Increase in short hotel breaks (lot of offers because of lagging business demand)

• Rise of auction sites

More delayed booking behaviour

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

23

Page 24: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Dutch less crisis-sensitive than rest of EU Proportion of the population who are modifying their travel behaviour as a result of the economic crisis

Source: IPK International, 2010

59%

58%

54%

49%

39%

37%

36%

35%

35%

34%

31%

25%

24%

23%

19%

17%

16%

14%

10%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Hungary

Italy

Spain

Great Britain

Russia

France

Belgium

Europe

Slovakia

Czech Republic

Poland

Austria

Germany

Sweden

Netherlands

Finland

Switzerland

Norway

Denmark

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

24

Page 25: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

The market environment model - Demographics

Climate

change / sustainability Holiday

supply

Demand for

holidays

Demographics

Social Cultural

Geopolitical

Economy

Technology

Social Cultural

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

25

Page 26: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Stagnation of population growth

The Dutch population will increase from 16.5 million in 2010 to 17 million in 2020, while, in terms of percentage, overall population growth will decrease (due to emigration, declining birth rate, growth primarily among non-Western ethnic minorities)

14,9

15,4

15,9

16,3

16,5

16,8

17,0

17,2

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

14,5

15,0

15,5

16,0

16,5

17,0

17,5

bevolking NL % groei

NL bevolking (x 1 miljoen) % groei van de bevolking

Source: CBS Dutch population % growth

% population growth Dutch population (x 1 million)

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

26

Page 27: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Changes in the Dutch population

Age 2010 2020 +/-

0-12 2,519 (15%) 2,358 (14%) -6.4%

13-17 989 (6%) 977 (6%) -1.2%

18-24 1,419 (9%) 1,457 (9%) 2.7%

25-34 1,987 (12%) 2,128 (13%) 7.1%

35-44 2,471 (15%) 1,990 (12%) -19.5%

45-54 2,462 (15%) 2,410 (14%) -2.1%

55-64 2,151 (13%) 2,336 (14%) 8.6%

> 65 2,538 (15%) 3,360 (20%) 32.4%

Total 16,536 (100%) 17,014 (100%) 2.9%

Source: CBS

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

27

Page 28: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Changes in household composition

More singles:

• From 2.6 million in 2010 to 3 million in 2020 (+14%)

Household dilution:

• Postponement and abandonment of future child-bearing, more divorces, fewer large families

• Growth in total number of households from 7.35 million in 2010 to 7.86 million in 2020 (+6.9%)

Mixed families:

• More divorces leads to more mixed (patchwork) families

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

28

Page 29: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

The market environment model – Social Cultural

Climate

change / sustainability Holiday

supply

Demand for

holidays

Demographics

Geopolitical

Economy

Technology

Social Cultural

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

29

Page 30: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Authentic, conscious, honest and sustainable

From „experience to enrichment‟‟

• The quest for material happiness is replaced by the quest for immaterial values

• Enjoyment remains important!

Return to origins, not global but local

• Becoming aware of one‟s own „roots‟

• Antithesis of globalisation

• „Like-a-local‟

• Authentic experiences

• „Local Cocooning‟ (as a result of the crisis people‟s appreciation for their own living environment is enhanced)

Living more consciously, slow living

• Working to live rather than living to work

Cradle-to-cradle

• Sustainable and honest consumption and living

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

30

Page 31: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Compression of time

Busy, busy, busy

• Full agendas, planned appointments, set holiday periods, “being lived”

Dealing with time as efficiently as possible

• So there is time left for the things that are „really‟ important

• Quality rather than quantity

Digitalisation

• Many things can be arranged faster via the internet than before

• The “new way of working” (see the box at the end of this chapter)

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

31

Page 32: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Individualisation, tribalisation and segregation

Less social cohesion

• More individual desires and needs

Segregation in terms of politics, ethnicity and religion as well as education and income

• The occurence of divides against certain groups

• Rivalry rather than solidarity

Identification with likeminded people

• Solidarity with people you know, with whom you can identify, your „tribe‟

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

32

Page 33: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Networkeconomies and -communities

Rise of communities and networks

• Digital networks, both for private use (Hyves, Facebook) as well as for business use (LinkedIn)

Flexible way of socialising

• Strengthens social contacts with the existing offline network, weaker ties with the periperhal network.

• Intertwining of the offline and online networks (supplements existing contacts)

• The network is not static, befriending and “unfriending”

But there is a desire for stronger family ties

• Albeit not always in the traditional form

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

33

Page 34: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

What is the effect on the holiday market?

Authentic, conscious, honest and sustainable:

Need for authentic experiences, journeys and travels

Travelling is an important part of the contemporary lifestyle

Compression of time:

Using holiday time as efficiently as possible

Arranging and looking many things up in advance

More short trips, long weekends

Reducing travel time through faster means of transportation or going on holiday closer to home

Individualisation, tribalisation and segregation:

Individual grouptravel is in demand

Travelling with likeminded people, for example thematic travels

Large differences in type of travels and accompanying budget, demand for both low and high budget travels, certain destinations for certain groups

Networkeconomies and communities:

Making use of holiday advice posted on networksites

Tips and ideas from your own network, approaching locals for information about the holiday destination

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

34

Page 35: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

The market environment model Economic growth and purchasing power

Consumer confidence

Unemployment

Stagnation in population growth

Ageing population

Change in composition of households

Appeal of destinations changing

Adaptation and mitigation measures

Change of lifestyle

Developments relating to social media and mobile internet

Transport developments

Authentic, aware, genuine and sustainable

Time compression (busy, busy, busy!)

Individualisation, tribalisation and segregation

Terrorism (threat)

Shift in global power

Unstable regions as a result of crises in the world

-

Climate

change / sustainability Holiday

supply

Demand for

holidays

Demographics

Social Cultural

Geopolitical

Economy

Technology

Social Cultural

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > The Dutch holiday market tomorrow

35

Page 36: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Developments on the supply side

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 37: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Supply developments More air routes, but cost of flying will increase in longer term

More attractive offering from high speed rail (more frequent and faster)

Increase in hotel capacity in the Netherlands and abroad

Growth of holiday parks / concepts abroad

Consumer can book direct with each link in the chain

Developments in the area of e-commerce and CRM mean that consumers are being presented more and more often with an offering which is relevant to them

Rise of new and innovative distribution concepts such as auction and deal sites stimulating holiday buying behaviour

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Developments on the supply side

37

Page 38: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Distribution developments

Further consolidation of tour operators and travel agencies

Tour operator sector: several large parties based on cost leadership, but also genuine specialists / middle segment is suffering

Consumers can book holidays anywhere / increasing importance of strong brands

Number of travel agencies will decline further (1,000 in the future?)/ function of travel agency is changing from profit centre to service centre (visibility, local reflection, entertainment)

Optimum combination of clicks and bricks is important (in those places where D-Reizen opens a shop, online sales increase)

Live chat / human sales specialists in online channels / instils confidence and creates possibilities for up-selling

Hotelier Airline

Tour operator

Travel agent

Consumer

I

N

T

E

G

R

A

T

I

O

N

The changing business column

Source: From travel agent to travel retailer, Travel Conference, Bangkok, October 2006

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Developments on the supply side

38

Page 39: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Holidays in the future? What does the

consumer want?

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 40: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Source: Toekomstonderzoek 2010

Holidays in the future: what does the consumer want?

“Imagine that you will have more money to spend over the coming years. On what category will you particularly spend more money?”

28%

24%

12%

7%

9%

7%

3%

3%

8%

28%

28%

12%

7%

8%

7%

2%

3%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Holidays/travel

Home/living

Leisure activities

Clothes

Car

Multimedia

Food & drink

Various

Don‟t know

2010 2007

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in the future? What does the consumer want?

40

Page 41: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Source: Toekomstonderzoek 2010

Holidays in the future: what does the consumer want?

“Looking ahead to the next 5 years, would you like to go on holiday more often, the same amount, less often or not at all over the coming years?”

42%

48%

3%

6%

3%

47%

45%

3%

4%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

More often

Same amount

Less often

Not at all

Don‟t know

2010

2007

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in the future? What does the consumer want?

41

Page 42: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Source: Toekomstonderzoek 2010

Holidays in the future: what does the consumer want?

“Would you like to take more short holidays or more long holidays?”

23%

47%

27%

1%

1%

24%

47%

28%

1%

0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

More long

More short

More long and short

Other

Don‟t know

2010

2007

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in the future? What does the consumer want?

42

Page 43: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Standard package holiday‟s popularity declining “I think that in the future I will increasingly put together my holiday myself instead of choosing a standard package.”

Source: Toekomstonderzoek NBTC-NIPO Research, 2007 and 2010

12%

35%

28%

12%

5%

8%

12%

40%

27%

11%

5%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Agree strongly

Agree

Neutral

Disagree

Disagree strongly

Don‟t know

2010 2007

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in the future? What does the consumer want?

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Forecast key indicators

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 45: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Holiday key indicators

2008 2009 2010 2015 2020

Population size* (x mln) 15.5 mln 15.6 mln 15.6 mln 15.8 mln 16.1 mln

Holiday participation 81.6% 81.3% 81.5% 81.7% 82.5%

Holiday frequency 2.84 2.88 2.84 2.87 3.0

Holiday volume (x mln) 35.9 mln 36.4 mln 36.1 mln 37.0 mln 40.0 mln

- Of which short (2-7 days) 18.8 mln 19.7 mln 19.4 mln 20.0 mln 22.5 mln

- Of which long (8+ days) 17.1 mln 16.6 mln. 16.8 mln. 17.0 mln 17.5 mln

*Persons of Dutch nationality in private households, Source: CBS

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Forecast key indicators

45

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Growth forecast all holiday types 2020

2015 and 2016 - 2020 (in quantities and percentages) Growth forecast by type of holiday 2010 -

6,801

1,535

3,768

1,025

4,328

1,929

5,229

6,800

1,690

4,160

1,000

4,780

1,930

4,970

6,970

1,870

5,060

950

5,820

2,030

4,610

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

Holiday park ICA Short hotel Winter sports City trips Sun/fly Med. Camping

2010 2015 2020

Source: Toekomstonderzoek NBTC-NIPO Research

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Forecast key indicators

46

Page 47: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Holidays in Scandinavia

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 48: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Estimated number of holidays to Scandinavia in 2010

142,000 Dutch people visited Norway in 2010

142,000

37,000

155,000

0,000

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Norway Sweden Finland

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

48

Page 49: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Holiday season

Nearly half of holidays to Norway in June and July

18% 21%

39%30%

14%

23%

21%

24%

46%

35%

28%27%

23% 20%12%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Norway Sweden Finland Rest outbound

October - February March - MayJune - July August - September

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

49

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Length of stay

Norway is a country for long holidays

15%

31%21%

35%

85%

69%79%

65%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Norway Sweden Finland Rest outbound

Short holidays (2-7 days) Long holidays (more than 1 week)

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

50

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Transport

Car important as means of transport to Norway. Coach relatively often used

47%

54%

12%

54%

4%

1%

30%

33%

71%

34%

2%

2%

4%

5%9%6%

1% 1%7%

1%

2%

1%

9%

1%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Norway Sweden Finland Rest outbound

Other

Boat

Coach

Train

Airplane

Camper

Car

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

51

Page 52: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Accommodation

Use of accommodation comparable to Sweden except for holiday homes

19% 21%

34%

13%

25% 21%

34%

40%

4%2%

4%

11%

12%

16%

9%

7%

3%

5%

7%

5%

4%

5%

5%

6%

2%

10%

3%

2%

2%17%

14%

2%5%

13%

17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Norway Sweden Finland Rest outbound

Other

Mobile home

Caravan

Tent

Holiday home/ -bungalow not on a

park

Holiday home/ -bungalow on a

park

Apartment

Hotel/ motel

Holiday home of family/ friends/

privatly owned

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

52

Page 53: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Type of Holiday

10%

28%

13%

26%

6%

3%

16%

15%

20%

1%

15%

24%

25%

3%

0%

6%

7%

7%

10%

1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Winter sports

Touring

Visit family,

friends, relatives

Holiday aimed at

nature

Water-related

holiday

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Rest outbound

Norway very strong in nature and touring holidays

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

53

Page 54: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Attractions visited

70%

41%

54%

15%

53%

33%

59%

21%

53%

28%

44%

7%

32%

21%

50%

28%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Nature area

Museum

Interesting

buildings

Beach

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Rest outbound

Besides nature, also musea are often visited by the Dutch during holidays in Norway

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

54

Page 55: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Activities undertaken Walking and mountain climbing very popular actvities among the Dutch in Norway

53%

77%

38%

22%

13%

70%

69%

51%

31%

4%

80%

61%

36%

19%

4%

74%

60%

50%

43%

2%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Dining

Walking/hiking

Fun shopping

Swimming

Climbing

mountains

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Rest outbound

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

55

Page 56: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Booking the trip: organised or self arranged?

Many trips to Norway organised via TO or TA, but also many off chance trips

30%

45%

35%

21%

43%

11%

22%

14%

6%

24%

5%

12%

3%

18%

22%26%

3%

12%

30%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Norway Sweden Finland Rest outbound

No arrangements

Accomodation booked

directly

Accomodation via travel

organisations

Organised transport

Package tours and tailor

made trips

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

56

Page 57: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Booking the trip: via which intermediary? Touroperator and travel agents important channel for bookings of Norway-holidays

40%

19%

27% 32%

21%

6%

10%

16%

20%

26%11%

12%13%

26%

33%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Norway Sweden Finland Rest outbound

Direct booking with

accomodation

Direct booking with

transport company

Travel agent

Direct booking with tour

operator

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

57

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Booking the trip: way of booking

In comparison low share of internetbookings for Norway-holidays

56%

69%

60%65%

13% 14%11% 13%

32%

17%14%

19%

1% 0% 0% 1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Norway Sweden Finland Rest outbound

Via internet By phone At the desk In writing

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

58

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Period between booking and departure

Bookings for Norway-holidays are often made long before departure

4%

13%

10%

8%

11%

18%

23%

14%

12%

10%

9%

12%

15%

20%

18%

19%

40%

34%

27%

26%

12%

12%

11%

11%

6%

3%

2%

10% 1%

1%

2%

3%

3%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Rest outbound

1 week or shorter 2 to 3 weeks Approx. 1 month

Approx. 2 months 3 to 5 months Approx. 6 months

Between 6 months and 1 year More than 1 year Don't know

Average

Number of days:

105 days

84 days

81 days

98 days

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

59

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Expenditure

Spendings PPPH on holidays to Norway nearly twice as high as for holidays to the rest of the world

2008 - 2010 Number of holidays

(x 1,000)

Total expenditure Spendings per

person per holiday

Norway 493 € 555 million € 1,126

Sweden 428 € 280 million € 655

Finland 134 € 188 million € 1,405

Rest outbound 53559 € 35.69 billion € 664

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Holidays in Scandinavia

60

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Dutch visitors profile in Scandinavia

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 62: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Age & Social Class

28%

31%

40%

25%

38%

43%

38%

37%

19%

9%

13%

16%

16%

16%

9%

22%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Rest outbound

A B-above B-under C/D

12%

3%

5%

9%

17%

12%

22%

18%

13%

11%

8%

18% 17%

9%

20%

5%5%

12%

18%

16%

19%

5%

11%

13%

6%

8%

12%

16%

18%17%

11%

14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0-12 years

old

13-17 years

old

18-24 years

old

25-34 years

old

35-44 years

old

45-54 years

old

55-64 years

old

65 or older

Norway Sweden Finland Rest abroad

Visitors of Norway a little ‘upmarket’

and relatively older

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Dutch visitors profile in Scandinavia

62

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Household situation & Place of residence

Older couples (Empty Nesters) strongly represented among

Dutch visitors of Norway

14%

15%

40%

18%

38%

32%

29%

30%

11%

15%

8%

8%

21%

22%

13%

20%

16%

17%

10%

24%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Rest abroad

Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague Rest of Western Holland

Northern Holland Eastern Holland

Southern Holland

4%

5%

3%

3%

11%

8%

17%

8%

10%

14%

25%

13%

12%

14%

6%

14%

6%

11%

13%

10%

6%

10%

9%

6%

52%

40%

28%

45%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Rest outbound

Single < 35 years old Single 35+

Family with child(ren) youngest 0-5 years old Family with child(ren) youngest 6-12 years old

Family with child(ren) youngest 13-17 years old Couple, woman < 35 years old

Couple, woman 35+

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Dutch visitors profile in Scandinavia

63

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Market potention

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 65: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Market potention for active and nature holidays (total market)

60

46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

previous 3 years been on active/adventurous holiday previous 3 years been on nature holiday

%

1,245,000 persons have plans to

go on a active/adventurous

holiday in the next 3 years

1,285,000 persons have

plans to go on a nature

holiday in the next 3 years

60% has been

on a active/

adventurous

holiday in the

previous 3 years

46% has been

on a nature

holiday in the

previous 3 years

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Market potention

65

Page 66: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

Profile potential active and nature holidays (total market)

Potential active holiday makers are more than average:

• Between 18 and 34 year of age

• Single (no partner)

• Young couples without children

• Families with children of 13 years and older

• Living in bigger households (4+ members of household)

Potential nature holidaymakers are more than average:

• Older (55+)

• Families with no children at home (empty nesters)

• From the highest social class

• Higher educated (university and higher professional education)

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Market potention

66

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Suppliers in the Netherlands of holidays to Norway

Understanding the Dutch tourism market

Page 68: Understanding the Dutch tourism market'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 Economic growth Purchasing power Number of holidays Holiday spend CVO trend break Index, 1997 = 100 Understanding

All round and bigger car tour operators All round tour operators:

• Arke.nl (owned by TUI)

• Oad

• Neckermann (owned by Thomas cook)

These big Dutch tour operators have a modest standard Norway offer with city trips (Oslo), car roundtrips (holiday homes and hotels), winter sports and fly/coach tours

NB. De Jong Intravakanties is a medium sized tour operator, who offers fly-coach tours and winter sports holidays to Norway.

Bigger Car holiday tour operators:

• Vrij Uit (owned by Thomas Cook)

• Pharos Reizen (owned by the ANWB, Dutch motorist club)

• Kras (owned by TUI)

Pharos and Kras offer accommodations all over Europe. In Norway only in the southern part). Kras offers also a coach tour to the North Cape. Vrij Uit offers only accommodation in Sweden.

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Suppliers in the Netherlands of holidays to Norway

68

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Norway and Scandinavia-specialists Norway and Scandinavia-specialists:

• Norske Turist Services

• Buro Scandinavia

• Norger Reisen

These are destination specialist with an extensive Norway-offer

Specialists in active holidays and group travel:

• Sawadee (owned by TUI London)

• SRC Cultuurvakanties

• Mambo

• Time Out actieve verre reizen

• SNP Natuurreizen (owned by the ANWB, Dutch motorist club)

• Djoser Reizen (offers at the moment only Finland)

• Vaya.nl

• Snow Leopard Adventures

This is a selection of tour operators, specialized on active holidays, mainly walking in natural areas . They offer some tours to Norway. Their tours are mainly in groups up to 20 people.

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Suppliers in the Netherlands of holidays to Norway

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Norway portals in the Netherlands

Norway portals in the Netherlands

• A lot of information is bundled on portals. In the Netherlands we have the following Norway portals:

• www.noorwegenstartpagina.nl

• www.noors.net

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Suppliers in the Netherlands of holidays to Norway

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Contact details

NBTC-NIPO Research

Ad Schalekamp (Director)

Grote Bickerstraat 74

1013 KS Amsterdam

+31 20 5335789

+31 6 53673553

[email protected]

Understanding the Dutch tourism market > Suppliers in the Netherlands of holidays to Norway

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Thank you