understanding the digital consumer of tomorrow · understanding the digital consumer of tomorrow...
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Understanding the Digital Consumer of Tomorrow
Danielle Levitas, Group Vice President Consumer, Clients, Broadband & New Media
@dlevitas
Global Consumers of 2013 Increasingly comfortable/dependent upon technology
Disengaged functionalists declining to sub-15% of market
Devices/household >15
8% of B2C ecommerce via mobile
$15B of digital advertising via mobile
$105B spent on online media
$870B spent on devices*
*PC, tablet, phone, TV, console, printer, camera, video camera, set-tops, DVD/BD, eReaders, DMAs
More Mobile & More Connected
Source: IDC ConsumerScape 360º 2010, 2011, 2012, n value varies, minimum 14,842
% of Smartphone Users Using Internet on Phone Daily
Online Activities Via Platform Global Consumers, Personal Use
Source: IDC ConsumerScape 360º 2012. PC n=46,308; Tablet n=10,267; Smartphone n=28,648
Competitive World of Clients: Global Computing Devices Market 2003
IDC Tracker Data Map. Copyright 2012 IDC. Size of markets and vendor shares represented by total area.
SMART PHONE DESKTOP
Other
Other
PORTABLE
Other
DESKTOP
Other
PORTABLE
Other
SMARTPHONE
Competitive World of Clients: Global Computing Devices Market 2007
IDC Tracker Data Map. Copyright 2012 IDC. Size of markets and vendor shares represented by total area.
Other
DESKTOP
Other
PORTABLE
Other
SMARTPHONE
Other
TABLET
Competitive World of Clients: Global Computing Devices Market 2011
IDC Tracker Data Map. Copyright 2012 IDC. Size of markets and vendor shares represented by total area.
Device Ownership Is High, Diverse and Climbing: Means Even More Options
Consumers of 2016
Generation and more so life stage drive what we use
Devices/household >20
12% of B2C ecommerce via mobile
$31B of digital advertising via mobile
$201B spent on digital media
$1.1T spent on devices*
*PC, tablet, phone, TV, console, printer, camera, video camera, set-tops, DVD/BD, eReaders, DMAs
Looking Out to 2016 and Beyond
It’s all about UI / UX • Ease of Use, Multiscreen, Cloud
Voice, Gesture, Motion, Eye, etc. • Sensors • Contextual Inferences • Data & Analytics
Intuitive Computing • Sensing/Perceptual/Ambient • Personalized
Conclusions & Essential Guidance
Consumer IT growing / increasingly diverse
Technology … need to have
More devices / form factors / content / monetization
Deliver simplified, personalized experiences
Role of sensors / cloud / analytics
From Mobile Phone to Superphone to Mobile Computer
Ramon Llamas Research Manager, Mobile Phones
@idcrllamas
Agenda
Trends and Developments for 2013 and 2016 • Pivotal Year for Linux • Amazon and Microsoft to Launch Smartphones • Near Field Communications • Cameraphone 2.0 • Device Subsidy: A Thing of the Past? • Smartphone as Mobile Computer
Essential Guidance
2013 Pivotal Year for Linux
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Windows Symbian Linux iOS BlackBerry Android
IDC Smartphone Forecast by OS, 2012 – 2016 (M)
Source: IDC, January 2013
Changing Linux Landscape 2016
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Linux (Current) Linux (Aggressive) Linux (Moderate) Linux (Conservative)
Linux Forecast Scenarios
Amazon, Microsoft to Launch Smartphones Why it makes sense • Smartphone fits Amazon business model • Installed base of 150 million users • Plenty of digital content Lingering questions
• How to sell and support it? • The Amazon and Amazon Kindle applications work just fine
Why it makes sense • Microsoft gains control • Taking a page from Google/Android strategy • This is not a contingency plan.
Lingering questions • What happens to OEM relationships?
• What does MSFT bring uniquely to the table others don’t? •Which segments to court?
2016 • Unless a unique experience, Amazon will be a small player
2016 • Microsoft will rely on OEMs to drive volumes
NFC Needs Reason to Exist 2013 • NFC takes driven by P2P exchange • Limitations from fragmentation • Education, momentum missing
2016 • Carrot vs stick to drive NFC • Multiple usage cases • As popular as camera phones • NFC needs Apple
Camera Phone 2.0 2013 • Augmented reality • Smart photos • Changeable views • Archived data
2016 • Camera as motion sensor • Smarter photos
Device Subsidy: A Thing of the Past? 2013 • T-Mobile takes bold/risky step • Potential for revenue, subscriber decline • Balance against voice/data plans
2016 • Subsidies will still be around • How far down can service price go?
Smartphone as Mobile Computer 2013 • Processors
• 2 GHz • Multi-core
• Bigger, richer displays • 400 ppi • 6” the new limit
• Input • Touch • Type • Voice
• Output • On-screen • Haptic feedback • Voice
• Sensors • GPS • Gyroscope • Accelerometer
• Social Aware • Location • Others
2016 • Processors
• 4 GHz? • How many cores?
• Displays • 2nd display • Flexible display
• Input • Voice • Touch, Type less • Responsive screen
• Output • Voice • Pico-projection
• Sensors • Camera • Temperature
• Social Aware • Context • Suggestion
Market ready for a major shake-up Platform landscape is changing, so are major players Adjust strategy accordingly
Subsidies not going away T-Mobile’s bold step will require education, evangelization Pricing pressure to increase. Race to the bottom?
Smartphones getting smarter User experience has to be seamless and intuitive Paradigm shift from user->phone to phone->user
Essential Guidance
The Rapid Evolution of the Tablet & Its Impact on Personal Computing
Tom Mainelli Research Director, Tablets
@tommainelli
Agenda
2013: The Multi Device Era • Market Shift to Smaller Tablets • Windows 8 Launch Revisited • PC Market Reboot
2016: Looking Ahead • Smarter Devices and Smarter Content • Evolution of Device Interaction • Business Model Upheaval
Essential Guidance
Market Landscape: Multi-Device Era
0.0
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0.4
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0.8
1.0
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1.4
1.6
USA WW
Source: IDC 2012 Tablet MCS N=400 USA and 1,954 WW Tablet owners
• US tablet owners have an average of 6 devices (plus the tablet) • WW the average is about 5
How many of each of the following devices do you own, even if not in regular use?
A Big Market for Small Tablets
Not just smaller, but better? • Easier to hold and carry
Perfect screen size • Not too big & not too small
Primarily for consumption? • Depends on the user
New app opportunities • Standard iPad apps often fall short
WW Tablet Screen Size Forecast (Shipments in Millions)
28
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100
150
200
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300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
>8 inches < 8 inches
Global Tablet OS Forecast (Shipments in Millions)
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50
100
150
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300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Android iOS Windows Others
Global Tablets + PCs Forecast (Shipments in Millions)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
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800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Tablets Notebooks Desktops
Windows Launch Revisited
Decision to launch Win8 & WinRT hindered both • Focus on Win8; don’t get hung up on Surface
Modern UI/Desktop confuses • Let the consumer choose a primary
Focus on touch hurts the larger PC market • Non-touch seen as broken; non-starter on desktops
Misplaced emphasis on convertibles • Neither a great tablet nor a great notebook
PC Market Reboot
Offer touch alternatives Unify devices Think commercial Listen to customers Make great notebooks and desktops
Looking Ahead to 2016
Smart Devices, Smarter Content Move Beyond Sync
• NFC & Location Aware • Ubiquitous Connectivity
True MultiScreen • Effortless Handoffs • Parallel Usage
Layered Content • Device Aware • User Aware
Business Model Upheaval
PoS Model Wanes • Device management • Lifetime services • Secondary markets
Platform dominance • Limited platform owners • Partnerships key
Vendor Consolidation
Essential Guidance Tablet Market Is Still Young
• Size shift signals opportunities PC Market Isn’t Dead
• But it needs a reboot Device Awareness
• Better experiences Business Models Shifting
• POS days are waning
Mobile and Connected Platforms 2013/2016 What Moves the Needle for Apps, Services, and Platform Economics
John Jackson Research Vice President, Mobile & Connected Platforms
@hellojackson
Dev’s Priorities Are Clear in 2013
The Web Itself as the 3rd Ecosystem
Not quite yet….
The “3rd Ecosystem” Un-Question
Platform-Centric Value Creation
Apple and Google’s strategies share MSP characteristics But the OS is a control point, but not the platform
Side 1 Side N
Platform
Consumer
3rd pty apps, svcs,
content
Search “Graph”
Advertisers, brands, etc.
Business Models and Agendas
Platforms and Graphs Dominate Value Creation
Side 1
Side N
Platform
The (Vertical) Future is Here…
Foundations are in place now
Value creation relatively more important than volume
Amazon’s disruptive potential is particularly significant
This is a battle for control points
Google’s latest
Nexus 4 smartphone (LG)
Nexus 7 and 10 tablets
Microsoft Surface tablet
Amazon Kindle Fire HD
Innovation Heat Map for 2013
Intuitive Computing Cross-Platform
Experiences Anything Payment
Oriented Enterprise “Pure” HTML 5 LTE + OTT + Shared
Data + P2P
Platform Centers of Gravity 2013
Apple defends and extends • Despite the maturation of its formula
Amazon becomes more assertive (this is code for
probably develops a smartphone)
Samsung’s decisions are pivotal
Faltering start for Windows Phone/Windows 8 • MSFT will have to react
Essential Guidance for 2013
The end of product-centric competition
Developers’ priorities remain largely static as with “platform share”
“Vertical” future takes shape
HTML 5 disappoints as a standalone environment
Essential Guidance for 2016
Fundamentally new supply-side alignments
Still with a small number of entities controlling economics of app and service distribution
There may be room for “Switzerland” – style plays
The “graph graph”?
Thanks, and Contact Information
John Jackson [email protected] +1 508 935 4255 Twitter: @hellojackson
Q&A Panel
Moderator: Bob O’Donnell, VP, Clients & Displays
Panelist: Danielle Levitas, Group VP, Consumer, Clients, Broadband & New Media
Panelist: Ramon Llamas, Research Manager, Phones
Panelist: Tom Mainelli, Research Director, Tablets
Panelist: John Jackson, Research VP, Mobile Applications & Platforms
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