Understanding and Utilizing

Today’s Real Estate Data

MATTDollinger

Why Matt?

KCM Divided into Three Sections

Existing Home Sales

S&P Case Shiller 10/2013

NAR 10/2013

100 = Historically Healthy Level

Pending Home Sales

Regional Home Prices (year-over-year)

FHFA 2013 2Q HPI Report

State Home Prices (year-over-year)

FHFA 2013 2Q HPI Report

“The emerging slowdown in home purchases appears to

be largely seasonal.”

Thomas PopikResearch Director for the

HousingPulse survey

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

NAR 10/2013

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

NAR 10/2013

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

S&P Case Shiller 10/2013

Year-over-Year Change in Prices

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.

“Asking home prices give us the first look at where home sale prices are headed, and they point to a

slowdown. After rising rapidly in the first half of 2013, asking prices in two thirds of the largest metros are cooling. In fact, asking prices are falling – not just

rising more slowly – in 11 of the 100 largest metros, the most markets to see prices slip in six months.”

Jed Kolko Trulia’s Chief Economist

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.

“The rapid price gains of the last year cannot be sustained and we expect the pace to decline substantially…A slower pace is a

positive for housing demand and will help to keep affordability from further eroding.”

Moody’s Analytics

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.

“If home values continued to rise as they have, relatively unchecked, we would almost certainly

be headed into another bubble cycle, and nobody wants that…This moderation should

help consumers feel more at ease in their decisions to buy and sell, and will help keep the

market balanced.”

Stan HumphriesChief Economist for Zillow

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.

"I define a bubble as a time when people have extravagant expectations, and the expectations

are driving home price increases. We don't have the mindset of earlier this century…

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years."

Robert ShillerNobel Prize Winning Economist

ta·perˈtāpər/Verb – to diminish or reduce

30 Year Fixed Rate

Freddie Mac 10/2013

Rate Movement

Increase in mortgage rates

building up to Fed announcement

Decrease in mortgage rates since Fed announcement

Fed announces not to taper bond purchases

“The MBA believes rates will keep pushing upward, going…

well above 5%.”

HousingWire 10/2013

Mortgage Rate Projections

Analyst Projected Rate 4Q 2014

Fannie Mae 5.0% National Assoc of Realtors 5.4% Freddie Mac 5.1% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.0%

6.00 $ 2,158 $ 2,218 $ 2,278 $ 2,338 $ 2,398

5.75 $ 2,100 $ 2,160 $ 2,218 $ 2,276 $ 2,334

5.50 $ 2,044 $ 2,100 $ 2,158 $ 2,214 $ 2,272

5.25 $ 1,988 $ 2,044 $ 2,098 $ 2,154 $ 2,208

5.00 $ 1,932 $ 1,986 $ 2,040 $ 2,094 $ 2,148

4.75 $ 1,878 $ 1,930 $ 1,982 $ 2,034 $ 2,086

4.50 $ 1,824 $ 1,874 $ 1,926 $ 1,976 $ 2,026

$ 360,000 $ 370,000 $ 380,000 $ 390,000 $ 400,000

-10% -7.5% -5% -2.5%

BuyerBuyer’’s Purchasing Powers Purchasing PowerR

AT

E

Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage HistoryJanuary 2012 – November 2013

Federal Reserve 11/2013

RETURN ON INVESTMENTJanuary 2000 – November 2013

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

Home Price Expectation

Survey

A nationwide panel of over one hundred

economists, real estate experts and

investment & market strategists.

Average Annual Appreciation

Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

Home Price Expectation Survey

Projected Percentage Increase

Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

Cumulative Appreciation by 2018

Thinking about moving up to Thinking about moving up to the home of your dreams?the home of your dreams?

Comparison – Next Year Current Home Move-up Home

Current Price $240,000 $360,000Future Price (+5%) $252,000 $378,000Future Gain $12,000 $18,000

Total Gain $6,000

The Move-Up SellerThe Move-Up Seller

Price Rate P&I

Today 360,000 4.5 1,824.07

End of Year 378,000 5 2029.19

Monthly Savings $205.12$205.12

The Move-Up SellerThe Move-Up Seller

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.“You can have brilliant ideas,

but if you can't get them across, your ideas won't get you

anywhere.”

Lee Iacocca

3.6%

7.9%

4.2%5.1%

Average Annual APPRECIATION

-5.9%

Pre-BUBBLE BUBBLE RECOVERYTO DATE

PROJECTEDNOW to 2018

BUST

Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

PROJECTED Percentage Appreciation

Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018

23.7%

40.1%

28%

16.8%Pre-BubbleTrend

Bulls All Projections

Bears

$175K

$215K

By FSBO By AGENT

*The ‘typical’ price is actually the average price in the survey. However, studies have shown that people are

more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.

Typical Sold Price*FSBO vs. Agent

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.

“In my opinion, Keeping Current Matters is THE easiest, most

reliable and comprehensive source for national real estate data today.”

Understanding and Utilizing

Today’s Real Estate Data