unclassified usjfcom/j9 4-dec-15 1 synthetic environment for analysis and simulation (seas) mark...
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Synthetic Environment for Analysis and Simulation (SEAS)
Mark Prevette
SEAS Contractor Operational LeadJ9, Experiment Support Department, Analyst Division
SYColeman
Daniel Snyder
SEAS Contractor Technical LeadJ9, Experiment Engineering Department, M&S Division
Booz I Allen I Hamilton
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Outline
The SEAS Model� Traits� Goals � Sensors� Actions� Behaviors
Synthetic Environment
Relationship to J9 Concepts
SEAS Functionality
Using SEAS� Inputs� Outputs
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About SEAS
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SEAS Agent Constructs
Traits
Goals
Sensors
Actions
Behaviors
Provide the formalism to develop reusable modular computational models
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Traits
Traits capture the characteristics of an agent. E.g.:
� Demographics (ethnicity, gender)
� Behavioral (aggressiveness)
� Physiological (height, immunity to certain virus)
Traits realize diversity in agent populations
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Goals
Goals describe the behavioral motivation of an agent
An agent can have multiple hierarchical goals
An agent might have different courses of action to accomplish a goal
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Sensors
Sensors represent the probes through which an agent retrieves information from the rest of the synthetic world
Sensors are categorized into:
� Messages
� Actions
� Environment
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Actions
Actions represent the interactions of one agent with a synthetic world
Actions can be directed against:
� Self
� Another agent
� A group of agents
� Non-human entities (eg. Infrastructure)
� Conceptual targets (eg. Economy)
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Behaviors
Logic defines the behavior of the agent
Behavior determines the decision that an agent make
Different traits might produce different behavior, ensuring a wide spectrum of decisions in a diverse community of agents
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The 7 Behavior Primitives
Atomic Task
Initiate
Decide
Execute
Update
Terminate
Each atomic task consists of 7 possible behavior primitives.
Initiate and Terminate are required actions.
Search, Decide, Execute, Communicate and Update are optional. However there must be at least one optional action in a workflow entity.
Search
Communicate
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Emergent Behavior
Emergent behavior is the behavior exhibited by a system that is not explicitly coded in its parts, e.g.:
� Birds flying in a formation
� Sands forming a dune
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Agent within a Synthetic Environment
AGENT
ENVIRONMENT
IntelligenceEmotions
Social Group/Organization
BehaviorMobilitySensors Goals
DemographicsTraitsSusceptibility
Intelligence
SavingsGroup
I
D
X
S
E
U
C
T
FinancialLife
FoodWater
PersonEnviron.
Shelter
PrintElectronic
Do NothingSecurity
Basic
Communication
Exposure
RumorTrue
InfectedImmune
Well Being
Communicate
Carrier
I
S
E
D
X
C
U
nitiate
earch
valuate
ecide
E ecute
ommunicate
erminate
Behavior Primitives
T
pdate
HealthLibertySafety
Environment
Applicable Models
Agents can be:
Individuals
Organizations
Institutions
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Must Accommodate Testing New Capabilities
Current method:•White Cell: Subjective Effects Adjudication Cell input to legacy models
Improved method: •Use off-line Simulations to Quantify Non-tangible effects as input to JWARS
Ability to conduct Joint Military Campaigns integrating all elements of national power (DIME)?
CurrentAnalytic
Capabilities
ImportantQuestions
Effects Based OperationsImpact of all elements of National Poweron desired, undesired, and unintentional effects
Non-tangible effectsLeadership, training, morale, etc
Complexity and AsymmetryNon-linear effects
•Butterfly effects•Bifurcation
Emergent behavior•Sum more than parts
Requires Continuous Tool Improvement
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Operational Net Assessment
Systems Perspective
Information
Political
Military
Social
Economic
Infrastructure
Key Nodes & Vulnerabilities
Political
Military
Economic
Social
Infrastructure
Information
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An Effects-BasedOperations Approach
ObjectiveDestroy
Global Terrorist Network(s)
Economic(cut off funding)
Diplomatic(build & sustain coalition)
Military(remove Taliban regime)(destroy terrorist cells)
Effects
What has to happen to Red to achieve Blue objectives (no longer able to operate as an adaptive network with
global reach)
Integrated DIME
Actions
Key Nodes & Vulnerabilities
Resources
Information(“not a war on Islam” message)
Changing the Way We Think …Changing the Way We Think …
Actions
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Effects Based Plan (EBP)• Developed by SJFHQ and RCC Staff with JIACG* as advisory element • ONA links DIME Actions to relevant PMESII* Nodes to achieve desired Effects
•Assigns Resources to Actions
Operational Net Assessment (ONA)• Developed by SJFHQ Includes:
• Desired Effects• potential DIME Actions• critical Nodes
• Execute Operations • Conduct Effects Assessment
Relationship Between Pol-Mil
Plan, EBP/O, ONA & Simulation Tools
SEAS Agent-based DImE Campaign• Models ONA Actions on PMESII Nodes
•interactions, synergy, and muting• Quantifies Impacts of DIE Actions
JWARS Simulations Military Campaign
• Models Blue and Red combat• Quantifies Impacts of Mil Actions
DImE COAAnalysis
POL-MIL Plan• Developed by NSC-PCC•Frames crisis response and identifies end-state•Guidance to relevant elements of national power (DIME) to achieve strategic objectives•Provides: Strategic Objectives & Policy Aims
Crisis
*CPG: Coalition Planning Group*JIACG: Joint Inter-Agency Coordination Group*PMESII: political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure
Linked:
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SEAS Features
Individual Organization Institution
Agent Civilian Leader Social Group
Organization Government Institution
Political Political Leader
Political Org Political Institution
Inter-Gov
Institution
Military Terrorist Terrorist Leader
Soldier Terrorist Org
Military Institutions
Economy Multi National Corporations
Banks
Sectors, Regional and Global Macro Economics, Central Banks, IMF, World Bank, WTO
Society Religious Leader Religious Org, NGOs, charitable orgs
Social and Religious Institutions
Information Media personality Media -- print, broadcast, internet (blog)
News wires
Infrastructure Consumption model Multi National Corporations Infrastructure
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SEAS Models
Individual Organization Institution
AgentCivilian Behavior Model
Wellbeing ModelInternational Relationship Model
PoliticalCitizen Organization Subscription Model
Political Leader Model Political Organization Model
CX Government Model
COI Government Model
International Organization Model
Military
Insurgency Model
Global Terrorism Progression Model
Terrorist Leader Model
Combatant Model
WTF Model
Terrorist Organization Model
WTF ModelMilitary Institution Model
WTF Model
Economy Leaders, Influencers, LaborSectoral Models, Multinational Corporations
Economy Model
Society
Social Group Model
Citizen Organization Subscription ModelCitizen Unrest ModelEpidemiological Model
Religious Leader Model
Religious Organization Model
Social Network Model
Charitable Organizations
Humanitarian Organizations
Social and Religious institutions - church, mosques,
Information Citizen Perception ModelRumor Propagation Model
Media Organization Model
Infrastructure Leaders, influencers, labor Multinational Corporations Infrastructure Model
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Synthetic International System
……
AA
IIEE
PP MM
SS II
World
AA
IIEE
PP MM
SS II
Region
AA
IIEE
PP MM
SS II
Country1
AA
IIEE
PP MM
SS II
Province1
AA
IIEE
PP MM
SS II
City1
International System
C1 Government
AA
IIEE
PP MM
SS II
Province2
…
…P1 Governor
P2 Governor
C1 Mayor
AA
IIEE
PP MM
SS II
CountryXAA
IIEE
PP MM
SS II
ProvinceXAA
IIEE
PP MM
SS II
CityX
CX Government PX Governor CX Mayor
Seamless integration of new areas of interest
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GovernmentGovernment
CitizenMake DecisionsMake Decisions
• Stay• Flee• Affiliation to Factions
D I M Eactions
OrganizationsOrganizations LeadersLeaders
APMESIIActions
PMESII Actions
Actions
Node
PMESII Actions
Red
Sp
in
Blu
e S
pin
New
swir
e
Red Spin
Blue Spin
Newswire
Red
Sp
in
Blu
e Sp
in
New
swire
Roads & Bridges
Communication Lines
Health Services
Security
Oil & Gas
Sea Ports
Financial
Public Utilities
Target Action at Specific Nodes
Node
Node Node
Node Node
NodeNode
NodeNode
Status/ Operational
Level
SEAS (agent-based DIME model) Overview
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User Interface: Action Plan
Planner supports complex course of action construction
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Visualization of Effects
The level of achievementof each effect is displayed
for the past 10 days