ukrainian emigration to the eu: labour market perspective oleksandra betliy warsaw, june 11, 2013
TRANSCRIPT
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
2Content
• Ukraine: some facts
• Migration profile of Ukraine
• Visa policy
• Ukraine and the EU
• Migration policy
• Experts about future migration of Ukrainians to the EU
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4Ukraine
Population: 45.6 millions as January 1, 2012 51.9 millions as January 1, 1991
Urban population: 69% of totalShare of children (0-14 years): 14% of total in 2012
21% of total in 1991Share of people older than 65: 15% of total in 2012
12% of total in 1991Life expectancy at birth: 71.0 years
including: females 75.9 yearsmales 66.0 years
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5Economic situation Major shock: transformation from centrally planned to
market economy after the collapse of the USSR
2030405060708090
100110120130
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
real GDP employment real wage real productivity
index, 1990 = 100
Source: Ukrstat
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6Unemployment patternsUnemployment patterns
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
300020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Unemployedeconomically activepopulation, thous.persons (ILO)Officially registeredunemployed, thous.persons
Unemployment rate,% of economicallyactive population(ILO), right scale
thousands persons %
Source: Ukrstat
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7Coping mechanisms for householdsCoping mechanisms for households
• Engagement of informal activities• Migration• Risk aversion, including work after retirement, low
job mobility, readiness to work despite wage arrears and forced part-time job, and high employment in public sectors
• Downturn in consumption• Family support and social safety nets• Delayed payments for housing and utility services • Households’ savings• Development of small business• Crime
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8
Migration profile of Ukraine
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9Migration profile of Ukraine
• 1.2 m individuals (3.4% of population in age between 15-70 years old) either worked or looked for a job abroad in the period of January 2010 - June 2012 (results of recent Ukrstat’s survey)– 98.2% of these individuals worked abroad, while the rest
looked for a job– 4.8% and 2.2% of economically active men and women,
respectively, were labour migrants– 2.2% and 6.3% of economically active individuals in urban
and rural areas, respectively, were labour migrants– 64.9% of labour migrants had complete secondary
education. while 15.4% had tertiary education.
• Number of labour migrants reduced:– Share of labour migrants in working labour force reduced
from 5.1% in 2005-2008 to 4.1% in 2010-2012
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10Migration profile of Ukraine Origin of labour migrants
Source: Ukrstat survey
North; 6,7Center; 3,3
South; 8,6
East; 9,8
West; 71,6
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11Migration profile of Ukraine
Source: Ukrstat survey
Russia, 43.2
Poland, 14.3
Italy, 13.2
Czech, 12.9
Spain, 4.5Hungary, 1.9
Portugal, 1.8Other, 8.22010-2012
Russia, 48.1
Poland, 8.0
Italy, 13.4
Czech, 11.9
Spain, 2.7
Hungary, 3.2
Portugal, 2.6Other, 10.1
2007-2008
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12Migration profile of Ukraine :status of migrants
Source: Ukrstat survey
• Many migrants work on seasonal works – circular migration
• Between 2010-2012 one labour migrant made on average 3 trips
• Average length of work – 5 months
• Frequency of home visits depends on the destination country (due to visa regimes)
• High share of illegal migrants
work and residence
permit, 38.7
work permit, 12.8
temporary registration,
23.7
tourist visa, 3.7
without official status, 16.7
undefined status, 4.4
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13Migration profile of Ukraine:destination countries
Source: Ukrstat survey
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Ru
ssia
Pola
nd
Italy
Czec
hRe
publ
ic
Spai
n
Ger
man
y
Hun
gary
Port
ugal
Bela
rus
Oth
erco
untr
ies
Basic or primary education
Completed secondaryeducationBasic high or uncompletedhighComplete high
thousand persons
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14Migration profile of Ukraine:sector of work
Source: Ukrstat survey
8.55.4
51.6
8.1
2.9 2.9 4.3
16.311.3
4.2
45.7
9.1
3.6 4.2 3.6
18.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Ag
ricul
ture
Indu
stry
Cons
truc
tion
Who
lesa
le a
ndre
tail
trad
e
Hot
els
and
Rest
aura
nts
Tran
spor
t and
com
mun
icati
on
Oth
er ty
pes
ofec
onom
icac
tivity
Prov
isio
n of
indi
vidu
alse
rvic
es
2007-2008 2010-2012
% of total number of working migrants
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15Migration profile of Ukraine
Source: Ukrstat survey
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Professionals,technical staff
Employees intrade andservices
Skilledagricultural
workers
Skilled workerswith
instruments
Skilled workerswith industrial
machines
Simplestprofessions
Labour migrants, 2010-2012 Employed, 2011
% of total
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16Migration profile of Ukraine:skills mismatch
• Ukrainian labour market is characterized by high skills mismatch. More than 50% of employed are formally overqualified for their jobs
• On domestic market there is a oversupply of white-collar workers, and a deficit of blue-collar skilled employees
• There is an evidence of occupational downshifting (‘brain waste’) among Ukrainian migrants
• As a result, depleted human capital and lower productivity (if these migrants return to Ukrainian labour market)
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17Migration profile of Ukraine
Total Women Men Urban Rural
Number of labour migrants, thous. persons 1161 403.2 757.7 529.0 631.9
Including, %
Equivalent occupation 28.7 10.9 38.1 32.8 25.2
Different from qualification 23.7 28.0 21.4 29.0 19.2
With lower qualification 5.2 5.3 5.1 8.3 2.5
With higher qualification 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.3
At work, which does not require qualification 39.5 53.0 32.3 26.6 50.2
Not defined 0.3 - 0.7 0.4 0.6
Source: Ukrstat survey
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18Migration profile of Ukraine:push factors
• In the beginning of 90s personal (including ethnic) motives for migration dominated, while later migration became labour-driven
• Major reasons for labour migration:– Low employment opportunities– Low earnings– Unstable earnings (wage arrears, administrative leaves,
etc.)– (At a lower degree) lack of protection of human rights
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19Migration profile of Ukraine
Average wage in Ukraine in 2010-2012:
USD 329 Total, thous. pers.
Distribution of earning in USD, %
Average monthly earnings,
USD,2010-12
<250
251500
5011000
1001-
2000
>2000
Number of labour migrants that reported earnings 1002 4.4 21.8 43.1 24.8 5.9 930
Russia 407.7 2.6 24.8 46.2 23.0 3.4 874
Poland 151.4 14.9 40.4 38.4 5.4 0.9 560
Italy 146.6 4.4 11.5 47.1 27.4 9.8 1056
Czech Republic 131.6 2.7 6.0 41.5 44.3 5.4 1137
Spain 43.5 - 19.8 49.4 26.7 3.9 943
Germany 27.8 - - 25.5 25.5 48.9 1798
Hungary 19.6 - - 70.9 29.1 - 969
Portugal 18.6 - 10.8 53.8 31.2 4.3 1019
Belarus 17.9 8.4 70.9 20.7 - - 432
Other 37.7 - 20.2 16.7 46.7 16.2 1306
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20Migration profile of Ukraine
• Impact of migration:– Worsened demographic situation: near 1.1 m persons
emigrated – reduction of working-age population. Besides, migration often means delay in childbirth
– Labour market impact:• Brain drain and brain waste• Likely reduces labour market pressure
– Often improves welfare of households through remittances• Remittances are mostly spent on everyday
consumption, purchase of durables• 12% of migrant households spend remittances on
education– Increase pressure to social security and health care
systems as temporary migrants don’t contribute to the system, but demand services after return
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22Visa policy
• Ukraine is encircled with substantial and non-symmetrical visa barriers
• Visa barriers restrict migration flows (however, likely only to a limited extent)
• Citizens of Ukraine can travel visa-free to 43 countries of the world , mostly to CIS countries and the countries that intend to attract tourists
• Visa policy of foreign countries towards citizens of Ukraine is not always open and transparent
• According to a research by Ukrainian think-tanks, visa practices of the consulates of the EU member states may be divided into four groups: «friendly», «neutral», «contrasting» and «problematic»
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23Visa policy
«Contrasting» (ambivalent)visa practice
Germany, France, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Slovenia,
Portugal, the Netherlands «Problematic»
visa practice
«Neutral» visa practice
Latvia, Lithuania, Spain, Sweden,
Austria, Denmark
«Friendly» visa practice
Italy, Czech Republic, Great
Britain
Hungary, Poland,
Slovakia, Estonia
EUvisa
practicein Ukraine
Source: Europe without barriers, Independent Monitoring Findings 2012
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25Ukraine and the EU
• In November 2010 Ukraine received the Action Plan on Visa Liberalization from the EU. The second block of elements of the Action plan is “Illegal Migration, Including Readmission”, which among others envisages following measures:– Adoption of a National Migration Management Strategy for
effective implementation of the legal framework for migration policy and an Action Plan;
– Establishment of a mechanism for the monitoring of migration flows, defining a regularly updated migration profile for Ukraine.
• Future visa liberalisation will make it easier for Ukrainians to travel to the EU countries and is expected to benefit Ukrainians
• In 2011 the National Action Plan on Visa Liberalization was approved
• The EU has high concerns to visa liberalization due to migration threats and large financial revenues from Consular fees
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26Ukraine and the EU• Facilitation of movement of persons is also a separate
article in the Association Agreement• In March 2012 Ukraine and the EU initialed the
Association Agreement, which envisages DCFTA. It might be signed in November 2013 if Ukraine fulfills requirements
• The AA envisages somewhat higher labour mobility– The Parties shall take gradual steps towards a visa-free regime in
due course provided that the conditions for well-managed and secure mobility, set out in the two-phase Action Plan on Visa Liberalization presented at the EU-Ukraine Summit of 22 November 2010, are in place.
• Ukraine is likely to benefit from the AA in terms of higher welfare
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28Migration policy• Ukraine’s migration regulatory framework improved recently:
– The Concept of Migration Policy of Ukraine was endorsed by the Presidential Decree
– The Government approved Resolution “On Creation of a Single National Database of Migration Flows Management”
– The State Migration Service was created in 2011 (however, it still criticized for low institutional capacities)
• Without wide vision and deep understanding of the migration situation in the country, migration legislation will not be effective
• Protection of rights of Ukrainian migrants remains inadequate • Effective system for collecting, processing and analyzing the
statistic and institutional data on migration of Ukrainians abroad is absent
• As labour migration is high, Ukrainian migration policy should make it legitimate and ensure protection (social and of human rights) of labour migrants as well as envisage policies for reintegration of returnees into society
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29Migration policy• Two government bodies are responsible for development and
implementation of migration policy in Ukraine• The State Migration Service of Ukraine (SMSU), which is
subordinated to the Ministry of Internal Affairs– responsible for registration of residents and non-residents
(including refugees), citizenship issues handling, combating illegal migration and elaboration of migration policy
• The Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine.– responsible for labour migration regulation– Ukraine is a party to 13 bilateral agreements on employment
and social protection of migrant workers (with Baltic States, Bulgaria, Spain, Libya, the Czech Republic, Mongolia, Portugal, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Czech Republic)
– The implementation of existing agreements on social protection is difficult due to lack of implementation mechanisms, financial resources and qualified personnel → the level of social protection of Ukraine’s labour migrants is very low
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30
Experts about future migration of Ukrainians to the EU
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31Future migration of Ukrainians to the EU
• The emigration flows might increase if economic and political uncertainty in Ukraine surges– Recently, the emigration mood of Ukrainians has expanded
• More young people consider opportunities to receive education abroad. As degrees received abroad are not directly transferable (the nostrifikation is required), this creates additional pressure for such individuals to look for a job abroad
• Visa regime with the EU is perceived to be a barrier for tourism rather than for work abroad
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32Future migration of Ukrainians to the EU: visa liberalisation impact
• Experts (as revealed by several studies and interviews) predominantly do not expect significant increase in migration of Ukrainians to the EU after visa liberalization
• In particular, migration potential is limited – near 6% of Ukrainians intended to leave the country for more than half a year (3.7% defined the Schengen Area as their desired destination). Only 1.5% planned labour migration or permanent residency
• Number of legal migrants might increase due to legalisation of currently illegal migrants
• We can expect an jump in migration due to family reunion of formerly illegal migrants However, further research is needed to reveal more
thoroughly the impact of visa liberalisation on migration flows from Ukraine
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33Literature (selected)
• Coupe Tom. Vakhitova Hanna. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Ukraine, ENPI, February 15, 2013
• Documents Security and Migration Policy: Assessments and Recommendations of the International Working Groups for Ukraine, Policy Paper, Europe Without Barriers, 2011
• Implementation of Action Plan on Visa Liberalisation: a Case of Ukraine, Independent Monitoring Findings, Policy Paper, Europe Without Barriers, 2012
• Kipen V., Avksentyeva M., Migration Potential of Ukraine in the Context of Visa Regime with the EU
• Petrova Iryna. Social Impacts of Eurointegration of Ukraine: Labour Market. October 2012 (in Ukrainian)
• Poznyak Oleksiy. Social Impacts of Eurointegration of Ukraine: Migration. October 2012 (in Ukrainian)
• The EU Visa Policy in Ukraine: Independent Monitoring Findings 2012, Monitoring paper, Europe Without Barriers, 2012
• Ukraine: Extended Migration Profile, EC, 2011• Ukrstat presentations on the results of Migration survey - 2012, May 2013
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