uk foresight - a view from 2005

UK Foresight History - Feb 2005

Institute of Innovation Research

(Towards) A Brief History of UK Foresight

Ian Miles

PREST/IoIR

University of Manchester



This talk

• Is work in progress (though a paper is in press, in IJFIP)

• Examines the Foresight Programme and Foresight more widely

• Argues that UK Foresight was initially highly influenced by the innovation studies community – but suggests that this influence is now much more patchy.

• Comes from someone who has been involved in some of the activities, and cannot claim a completely uninterested perspective.



Where is UK Foresight?http://www.foresight.gov.uk



A site with Rich Content – on specific technology areas



But this is “focused” Foresight marks a major change

• Where is broadbrush “foundational” Technology Foresight - overall scanning and strategy advice on technological challenges and opportunities?

• Where is the effort to map and monitor Foresight in general?



The Official History

• Three cycles of UK Foresight: 1994-99, 2000-02, 2002-

• Much documentation on website, but some material now regarded as obsolete.



UK Foresight Programme – prehistory

• Prehistory of concerns about national innovation system , attention to Foresight in other NIS (esp. Japan: Irvine/Martin)

• SPRU had played key role in developing innovation studies, with early analysis of NIS flowing from earlier work on the “British disease” – work that had moved from the margins to a more centre stage position (good topic for research)

• SPRU had also been the main scholarly centre for futures work, with its STAFF programme and successor studies. Loose coupling of analyses, esp through Freeman work on technological revolutions and institutional structures

• Had seeded both approaches widely – thus establishing base in innovation studies community worldwide for longer-range thinking:



UK Foresight Programme – “First Cycle”

• Several 1990s efforts to determine critical technologies (involving SPRU, PREST and consultancies): this approach has been pursued in US and France, in particular.

• 1993 White Paper: improve connection between science base & wealth creation + quality of life. Foresight a major instrument.

• Specific goals: to inform priorities (planning) & promote “Foresight culture” of forward and longer term thinking “beyond the business plan” (futures, networking)

• Already quite a mature, well-conceptualised intervention. And organisationaly well located:



Organisational FlowPrime

Minister

Cabinet Office

Office of Science and Technology

Ben Martin on Steering Committee: undertook review of other Programmes;

PREST undertook much methodological work (delphi, other surveys, panel training…)

This links to innovation studies



Initial stages of First Cycle

Pre-foresightSteering

committeeCo-nomination

15 panels prepared

Pre-foresightSteering

committeeCo-nomination

15 panels prepared

Main stage•Key issues & trends

•Scenarios•Wide consultation

•Delphi survey•Regional workshops

•Panel reports•Steering Committee

report - priorities

Main stage•Key issues & trends

•Scenarios•Wide consultation

•Delphi survey•Regional workshops

•Panel reports•Steering Committee

report - priorities


Institute of Innovation Research Original Foresight Panels (94-98)

ANRIE Agriculture, Horticulture & Forestry *(split)

Defence & Aerospace Financial Services Health & Life Sciences Leisure & Learning Manufacturing, Production

& Business Processes

Marine **(new)

Natural Resources & Environment *(split)

Chemicals Construction Energy Food & Drink Materials Retail & Distribution Transport

Mix of technology

and “demand”

Missing sectors?

Analysis of Cross-

sectoral links (e.g.

food chain)

IT, Electronics & Communications * (merged)



Defining constituencies of expertise and stakeholders

Generating lists of Delphi topics Undertaking consultations Preparing own views as to R&D (and

other) priorities in interim and final reports

Forwarding their proposals in follow-up work.

Structure placed Panels at the core



One Priority: Priorities!Key

priority areas

Key priority

areas

Inter-mediate

areas

Inter-mediate

areas

Emerging areas

Emerging areas

Feasibility Feasibility

Att

ract

iven

ess

Att

ract

iven

ess



Foresight implementation

• Dissemination by Panels through media, workshops, professional & trade associations– 600 events, 130,000 reports distributed– 1998 Delphi on website - high usage

• Foresight Challenge funding initiative to support key priorities – e.g. Institute of Applied Catalysis. LINK programme.

• 54% of Research Council spend aligned with priorities of which £300 million new initiatives

• Other government departments acting on own areas, and Panels champion this: Transport, Construction, Defence, etc; and better co-ordination between departments

• Foresight was element in gaining major increase for science funding in Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review


Institute of Innovation ResearchRetrospect on First Cycle Successes

– huge level of voluntary participation– widespread support, political commitment sustained– broad priorities accepted– networking seen as beneficial– “Foresight” more widely accepted as tool– taken as model by many other countries

Problems– insufficient time - esp for USE of Delphi - some frustration– insufficient technical support, communication problems, lack of

coordination and resource pooling between panels, poor comms between panel members and non-members

– tendency to “technical fix” solutions - even though many social constraints & issues identified


Institute of Innovation ResearchA Transformed Website

TF

CPCP sectoral thematic, Many Task Forces

The Second Cycle



Second Cycle Structure

Sou

rce:

OS

T, B

lue

prin

t fo

r th

e N

ext

R

ou

nd o

f Fo

resi

ght,

SECTORAL

PANELS

THEMATIC

PANELSKNOWLEDGE

POOL

ASSOCIATE PROGRAMMES



Information Discussion GroupsInformation Discussion Groups

USERS and CONTRIBUTORSPanels, Government Departments

Associate Programmes, Other Participants

USERS and CONTRIBUTORSPanels, Government Departments

Associate Programmes, Other Participants

Search for ideas Find others withand analysis, etc. shared goals

Add strategies, Put your ideasvisions, trends, etc. to the test

The Knowledge Pool



Other key elements

• Thematic panels cutting across issues and bringing in social dimension– Ageing population– Crime prevention– Manufacturing 2020

• All panels to consider Education, Skills and Training

and Sustainable Development • Task forces to stimulate further inter-panel working• Associate programmes to harness enthusiasm of other

communities with foresight interest• Senior executives chairing several panels to reach

beyond science & technology community

•No Delphi



Retrospect on Second Cycle

• Cut short - internal high level review initiated• Some reports publicly criticised in Parliament by

responsible Minister – variable quality• Problems with Knowledge Pool - low interactivity• Short Steering Group report – pamphlet without

priorities exercise • Impact and profile less than First Cycle Website streamlined, much documentation

removed (key reports remain, but not always easy to locate)


Institute of Innovation ResearchSecond Cycle Problems

• Still awaiting rigorous evaluation • New methodological framework, plus staff and consultant

changes, reduced any capitalisation or learning from 1st cycle

• Institutionalised panels - reduced access to vision, less individual commitment of members and chairs, and increased lobbying content

• Lack of core methodology - reduced rigour of approach, scope for integration

• “Ownership” problems for OST of the wide range of social/political issues - disarticulated from OST concerns?



Research Councils

Innov-ationGroup

Direct

or G

ener

al o

f

Resea

rch

Counc

ils

2001 Organisational Flow

Cabinet Office

Performance & Innovation

Unit

Prime Minister

Office of Science and Technology

Department of Trade and Industry

Chief Scientific Advisor



Third Cycle• Aim “to increase UK exploitation of science”, inform but not direct

public and private research funders• LINK not driven by Foresight priorities, though remains “a useful

and responsive mechanism”• Move from broad set of standing panels to rolling programme of

projects...• Brainstorming of “visionaries” to develop initial shortlist of projects• Projects organised in different ways, but based on initial seminar,

literature and horizon scanning, in-house and external support, use of futures techniques to avoid extrapolation, limited (at best) role of panels.

• Delivery target: overview, vision of what success will look like, recommendations for action, networks that are willing and able to take recommendations forward


Institute of Innovation Research Third Cycle Foresight

• OST Foresight Programme restructured in 2002• No longer covers the whole range of technologies, nor tries to

encompass all Foresight• Aim “to increase UK exploitation of science”, inform but not direct

public and private research funders• LINK cannot be driven by Foresight priorities, though should be seen as

useful and responsive mechanism• Replacing broad set of standing panels with fluid rolling programme of

projects, organised in different ways...• Brainstorming of “visionaries” to develop initial shortlist of projects• Projects based on initial seminar, literature and horizon scanning, in-

house and external support with use of futures techniques to avoid extrapolation

• Delivery target: overview, vision of what success will look like, recommendations for action, networks keen to take recommendations forward

• Now focusing on five areas:



A Technology Strategyto increase innovation

“3.22. … bringing business, Government, and the research and knowledge transfer communities together to identify the most important emerging, potentially disruptive technologies on the basis of their potential economic, social and environmental benefits for the UK. … to develop collaborative, application-based solutions to technology development, drawing on the resources and instruments available to all parties. Business has told us that a strategic approach in this area is of high importance …

3.23. ,,, developing a Technology Strategy that will identify technology priorities. The Strategy will be used to stimulate an industry based technology programme. ,,, to influence a much wider set of Government policies as well as the behaviour of business and other participants in the innovation system (e.g. RDAs and DAs).

3.24. The Technology Strategy will be business-led, market focussed and need a high level of stakeholder input. …

…3.28. Of the countries we have reviewed, several operate some form of

strategic selection of technologies and research themes. The models used by the Finnish technology agency ,,, and by Japan appear closest to our proposal…. “



Technology Strategy/ Technology Foresight

3.25. A high level Technology Strategy Board will ensure the technology priorities are market focussed and will advise on the broad allocation of resources to them. The Board will also act as a high level forum for interaction between business, Government and other stakeholders. Innovation works best when there is a clear market and business pull and we will focus the Technology Strategy on this basis. The main criteria for prioritising the Technology Strategy themes will be:

• the degree to which technologies will have an impact on sectors that are a major UK strength (eg pharmaceuticals and aerospace) or have high growth potential;

• the degree to which a particular technology will have an impact on a number of sectors;• strength of the UK SET base relative to other countries;• potential economic, social, quality of life and environmental benefits and scope for cross-

government collaboration (e.g. healthcare, energy);• potential for spill-over benefits and whether there is an underpinning market failure; and• the degree to which there is scope for effective action by Government or others.3.26. The … Technology Strategy … has the potential to become a key information source,

including technology road maps, for all participants in the innovation system, strengthening co-ordination and improving effectiveness at all levels….

Influencing policy by, e.g. signalling technologies where action might be needed to strengthen the supply of technical skills; … where particular attention to regulatory issues may be justified … generating a higher level of awareness of IP issues … informing negotiation of EU Framework programmes; and … the development of standards and measurement …


Institute of Innovation Research Broader Foresight

• As well as a move to identify critical technologies and resource these…

• … there are continuing efforts, particularly from the Strategy Unit, to stimulate and interrelate long-term strategy-related activities across government.


Institute of Innovation Research Strategy Unit

http://www.strategy.gov.uk/output/page696.asp


Institute of Innovation Research Stimulus for Strategy


Institute of Innovation Research Centrifugal Forces

• Thus there are moves to provide a general strategic overview of technologies – remains to see how the key technologies approach will interconnect with OST Foresight

• There are efforts to articulate strategy across government…

• .. But a great deal is underway in various parts of national and regional government across the UK, and its hard to gain an overview



Horizon-Scanning and Roadmapping

• “Horizon-Scanning” has become widely used in many government departments instead of “Foresight”

• Other terms have also made their mark – “roadmapping”, “long-term strategy”.

• Differences in nuance and detail of approach – but common to see use of workshops plus desk research. (Eg Bioscience and NonFood Crops)

• Much action around climate change, food, agriculture, rural economy, etc. Reflects recent crises. Thus DEFRA is a major actor, and probably ahead of other parts of national government.


Institute of Innovation ResearchDEFRA – Horizon scanning



Horizon-Scanning for Emergencies



Other parts of government are also active – e.g. a call for research:

http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_science/documents/page/dft_science_025626.hcsp


Institute of Innovation Research A Space Roadmap

Foremost developer of

Leading-Edge Solutions

Leading Users of Space

Services

Using Space for

World Class

Science

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

http://www.bnsc.gov.uk/index.cfm?fast=spacestrategy



Many government-funded projects outside of government agencies

Research Councils involved in various ways

Research Councils involved in various ways



http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e384/

landscapes.htm

Foresight and related work is underway at many sites,

with CLIMATE CHANGE one

of the main foci

Landscape Futures Visualised


Institute of Innovation ResearchAnd, finally, much regional work…


Institute of Innovation Research Critical Technologies

At: http://www.dti.gov.uk/innovationreport/



OST's Centre of Excellence in Horizon Scanning:

OST's Centre of Excellence in Horizon Scanning - conceived as part of the government's 10-year investment framework for science and innovation - has now begun its operations.. Current activities include pilot projects with a number of client departments, to scope the nature of demand and the practicalities of delivery. The fundamental purpose of Horizon Scanning is to scan systematically for potential future threats, trends, and opportunities. Investigation of 'science' issues will encompass all analytical evidence streams, including economics and social sciences. This comprehensive approach will also inform and provide context for future public engagement priorities.

ActivitiesThe Centre expects to have three main strands of activity • A regular cross-departmental strategic horizon scan to underpin departmental horizon scanning and to inform cross-departmental priorities• Project work with departments• Provision of tools and support to spread good practice in departmental horizon scanning

The Centre will comprise a small team, with significant outsourcing. CSAC (Committee of Chief Scientific Advisors) has agreed to form a subgroup to oversee the development of the programme and to ensure that it adds value to departments‘ own work. This will be chaired by Howard Dalton (Defra).

Horizon Scanning Timings• March 2005: Best practice offer fully launched (defined and tested)• December 2005: findings of the first strategic horizon scanning exercise available. There will also be various key engagement events and smaller deliverables from the start of next financial year.


Institute of Innovation Research Conclusions

• Foresight of all kinds is underway in many locations in the UK: there are some coordination efforts, but the field is vast and very diverse (are there quality control problems? Pet methods?)

• There are now many academics, consultants, and others active in the area.

• Technology Foresight is underway in several government departments, in addition to the main Foresight programme. Again, there is some fragmentation, and the effect of a key technology focus coming from Technology Strategy (for innovation) is unpredictable.

• But if Foresight is to do with bringing together opportunities and needs, then we can expect further interesting developments.



End of Presentation

uk foresight - a view from 2005

Technology

departments foresight

round of foresight

beneficial foresight

foresight culture

monitor foresight

focused foresight

cycles of uk foresight

original foresight panels94