uk energy policy and market reform - meti€¦ · –background on uk energy policy –recent...
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UK energy policyand market reform
Dr Robert Gross
DirectorCentre for Energy Policy and Technology
Imperial College London
Energy Futures Lab
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World‐class scholarship, education and research
Number 8 in Times Higher word ranking 2015
Four faculties: science, engineering, medicine and business
15,900 students9,100 undergraduates
3,400 taught postgraduates3,400 research postgraduates
from 126 countries3,800 academic & research staff
3,100 support staff£970M annual turnover
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Energy Futures Lab
Sustainable Power: includes research on marine energy; bioenergy; PV and solar thermal; fuel cells; nuclear; wind energy
Policy and Innovation: includes research on energy policy impacts; inventive mechanisms; energy service innovation; energy resource mix assessment
Cities and Transport: includes research on electric and hybrid vehicles; transport use modelling; future fuels; more electric ships and aircraft.
Energy Infrastructure: includes research on smart grids; energy storage; multiple energy vectors; energy efficiency
Clean Fossil Fuels: includes research on carbon capture and storage; down-well processing; sustainable gas
The Energy Futures Lab is a university-wide institute that promotes cross-disciplinary research and education in energy. Approximately 200 academics and 700 researchers work in energy related topics with an annual spend of around £40M from industry and public sources. It runs an MSc in Sustainable Energy Futures
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Overview of presentation
– Background on UK Energy Policy– Recent policy changes – Electricity Market Reform– Power system investment since liberalisation– Changes to the UK power mix– The capacity mechanism– Renewables prices– Future issues for policy and markets
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Policy in the UK power sector – 2 minute history
• 1900s – private competitive – tending to monopoly
• 1950s to 90s – nationalised industry – economies of scale
• 1990s – competition, liberalisation – dash for gas
• 2000s – climate change programme and Renewables Obligation, plus EU Renewables Directive
• 2010 – Electricity market reform creates capacity market and contract for difference feed in tariff
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The evolution of the market1989-present
Pre 1989State owned CEGB and regional electricity companies
Dispatch optimised on merit order –lowest marginal cost runs first
Power mix mainly coal (80%) and nuclear (20%)
Some hydroSome oilNo other RE
1989/90Electricity Act:Liberalisation & start of PrivatisationThe “Pool” central buyer and two main companies (running coal)
National Grid dispatches according to bid prices
Some hydroSome oilNo other RE
1990-2000Gradual opening ofcompetition in supply
Investment by new entrants and regional electricity cosLeads to the dash for gas
Nuclear part privatised
Creation of Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation (NFFO) –designed to support nuclear but open to renewables
First wind farms constructed (1991)
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The evolution of the market, 1989-present2001NETA: New Electricity Trading Arrangements
bilateral trading England and Wales
Creation of Renewables Obligation (RO) – tradable certificates plus target on suppliers
Growth in wind and landfill gas plus some small hydro
2005 - 2014BETTA: British Electricity Transmission & Trading Arrangements
Various changes to rules for bilateral trading + Scotland
Many changes to workings and ambition of RO – egbanding
Creation of micro-gen FiT
Huge expansion of wind, then offshore wind and solar
2014Electricity Market Reform
bilateral trading + capacity markets + CfDs
Opens support/subsidy to new nuclear
Emission performance standard
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Energy Act 2013Electricity market reform
Grubb and Newbery, 2018, UK Electricity market reform and the energy transition; emerging lessons MIT CEEPR Working paper
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The changing electricity mix – from coal to gas …to renewables
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-energy-in-brief
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UK operational power plants
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/energy-futures-lab/policy/briefing-papers/paper-1/
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The dash for gas CCGT capacity, 1990 onwards
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-energy-in-brief
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Renewables now supply over 25% of power
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Share of gen
eration
Biomass Hydro Wind Solar
www.electricinsights.co.uk
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The death of coal?
www.electricinsights.co.uk
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2011 – 2017 CO2 emission down from 510 g to 240 g /kWh
0
100
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Carbon
intensity
(g/kWh)
Min–Max Range Average
www.electricinsights.co.uk
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Capacity market outcomes
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/energy-futures-lab/policy/briefing-papers/paper-1/
£0
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2016 (TA) 2017 (T‐1 and TA) 2018 (T‐4) 2019 (T‐4) 2020 (T‐4)
Capa
city pric
e (£ per kW)
Derated
cap
acity
(GW)
Hydro
DSR
Interconnectors
Storage
Fossil peaking
CHP
Coal / biomass
Nuclear
Gas CCGT
Cost per kW
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Auctions drive down wind and solar prices
Grubb and Newbery, 2018, UK Electricity market reform and the energy transition; emerging lessons, MIT CEEPR Working paper
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Historical 2020 2025 2030
Comparing historical and projected build rates CAPEX (£m)Source: Ofgem 2009, E&Y 2009, DECC 2012, NG 2013,
CCC 2013, LSE 2012, TCE 2012 – see www.ukerc.ac.uk/uncertainty
The investment challenge
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Lessons from the UK• ‘Dash for gas’ mainly driven by wholesale rather than capacity market
• Carbon price plus regulation drives coal to gas switching
• Capacity market creates surprises – smaller peaking plant not CCGT
• Auctions drive renewables price reductions
• ‘Subsidy free’ renewables possible but long term contracts still needed to access
low cost capital
• 25% renewables integration with minimal system costs
• The future – RE contributes to balancing, flexibility from interconnection and
conventional plant, storage for frequency, increased role for demand side
• Future uncertainty: What role for new nuclear? What is needed for new CCGT?
• Can we make new demands (cars, heat) flexible? Interconnection/Brexit?