ufe 2009 analysis

UFE 2009 Analysis1

UFE 2009 ANALYSIS

Compiled by Load Forecasting & Analysisfor the PWG Meeting of

August 25, 2010

UFE 2009 Analysis2

UFE Basics

Sources of UFE include:■ Generation Measurement Errors■ Load - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data

- Model Error - Load Profile ID Assignment Error - Theft

■ Losses - Model Error - Loss Code Assignment Error

Negative UFE indicates load/losses are overestimated

UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows:UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)

UFE 2009 Analysis3

UFE Basics

Net Generation for Settlement Interval

Interval Data Energy Usage

Profiled Energy Usage Non-Interval Data

Non-Metered Accounts

Losses:Transmission &

Distribution

UFEGAP - - - - - - >

Net GenerationCompared toLoad Buildup

UFE 2009 Analysis4

SETTLEMENT SCHEDULE

UFE is computed for each 15-minute interval of a settlement run.

Initial Settlement (10 days after the trade day)

Final Settlement(59 days after the trade day)

True-up and Resettlement (6 months to up to several years after the trade day)

The latest resettlement in each interval is used in the analysis for Initial, Final and True-Up.

InitialFinalTrue-Up

Settlement

(if necessary)Resettlement

UFE 2009 Analysis5

LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK Day 2009Initial Settlement

SR01

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

Per

cen

t

MW

H

Interval

July 13, 2009 - Initial Settlement

ERCOT Load

Percent UFE

UFE

Daily avg percent UFE = 1.14

UFE 2009 Analysis6SR02

LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK Day 2009Final Settlement

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

Per

cen

t

MW

H

Interval

July 13, 2009 - Final Settlement

UFE


ERCOT Load

Percent UFE

UFE 2009 Analysis7SR03

LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK Day 2009True Up Settlement

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

Per

cen

t

MW

H

Interval

July 13, 2009 - True Up Settlement

UFE

ERCOT Load

Percent UFE


UFE 2009 Analysis8

UFE MWh by Month in 2009Initial Settlement

SR04

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MW

h

Net UFE ABS UFE

ABS Annual UFE = 5,423,623 MWh

Net Annual UFE = 1,163,502

UFE 2009 Analysis9

UFE Cost by Month in 2009 Initial Settlement

SR05

-15,000,000

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000


Do

lla

rs

UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)

ABS Annual UFE Cost = $187,694,834Net Annual UFE Cost = $47,804,618

UFE 2009 Analysis10

UFE MWh by Month in 2009Final Settlement

SR06

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000


MW

h

Net UFE ABS UFE



UFE 2009 Analysis11

UFE Cost by Month in 2009 Final Settlement

SR07

-15,000,000

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000


Do

lla

rs


ABS Annual UFE Cost = $149,139,315

Net Annual UFE Cost = $46,413,546

UFE 2009 Analysis12

UFE MWh by Month in 2009 True-Up Settlement

SR09

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000


MW

h

Net UFE ABS UFE



UFE 2009 Analysis13

UFE Cost by Month in 2009 True-Up Settlement

SR09

-15,000,000

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000


Do

llar

s


ABS Annual UFE Cost = $149,282,758

Net Annual UFE Cost = $44,857,873

UFE 2009 Analysis14

ABS UFE MWh by Month in 2009 Initial, Final and True Up Settlements

SR09a

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


MW

h

Initial Final True Up

UFE 2009 Analysis15

ABS UFE Cost by Month in 2009 Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements

SR09b

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000


Do

lla

rs

Initial Final True UpUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)

UFE 2009 Analysis16

STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009

SR10

MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV

2002 31,980 30,107 19,209 55,703 7,437

2003 32,489 30,824 19,282 59,992 7,546

2004 32,909 31,162 20,231 58,528 7,448

2005 34,155 31,901 20,482 60,272 8,452

2006 34,884 32,707 21,223 62,430 8,508

2007 35,008 33,324 21,701 62,250 7,470

2008 35,304 33,423 19,574 62,266 8,091

2009 35,192 33,070 21,343 63,518 8,694

2002 32,002 30,116 19,211 56,233 7,467

2003 32,517 30,850 19,292 59,996 7,562

2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531 7,445

2005 34,161 31,911 20,486 60,270 8,454

2006 34,899 32,716 21,225 62,434 8,502

2007 35,016 33,332 21,715 62,265 7,471

2008 35,313 33,431 19,579 62,269 8,091

2009 35,199 33,079 21,351 63,534 8,695

2002 32,052 30,142 19,266 56,248 7,479

2003 32,532 30,865 19,310 60,095 7,571

2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531 7,445

2005 34,162 31,912 20,490 60,274 8,453

2006 34,902 32,722 21,225 62,434 8,502

2007 35,016 33,330 21,712 62,265 7,471

2008 35,314 33,433 19,579 62,269 8,091

2009 35,200 33,079 21,351 63,534 8,696

INITIAL

FINAL

TRUE-UP

ERCOT LOAD (MW)

ERCOT LOAD (MW)

ERCOT LOAD (MW)

UFE 2009 Analysis17


SR11a


2002 -2,176 -2,228 -6,969 5,673 1,572

2003 -314 -400 -3,906 3,798 1,003

2004 67 -9 -4,558 4,559 792

2005 75 45 -5,537 3,538 881

2006 110 69 -2,957 4,543 877

2007 338 305 -4,000 6,666 900

2008 101 120 -10,954 4,511 1,375

2009 133 145 -3,603 5,589 782

2002 -1,624 -1,598 -5,954 3,427 1,147

2003 -6 -119 -3,172 3,728 891

2004 130 56 -3,929 4,302 721

2005 118 77 -4,199 3,163 750

2006 257 220 -2,288 3,351 707

2007 337 305 -3,068 3,972 644

2008 189 164 -4,593 4,479 901

2009 158 147 -2,802 5,103 621

2002 -456 -553 -3,371 3,803 898

2003 192 72 -2,886 4,065 857

2004 153 83 -3,879 4,299 719

2005 124 82 -4,155 3,190 750

2006 263 225 -2,296 3,332 706

2007 333 300 -3,076 3,975 643

2008 179 161 -4,853 4,513 919

2009 154 142 -2,797 5,128 621

UFE (MW)

UFE (MW)

INITIAL

FINAL

TRUE-UP

UFE (MW)

UFE 2009 Analysis18


SR11b


2002 2,321 2,257 0 6,969 1,348

2003 857 759 0 3,906 607

2004 606 472 0 4,559 515

2005 649 491 0 5,537 600

2006 673 528 0 4,543 574

2007 723 562 0 6,666 633

2008 918 644 0 10,954 1,029

2009 619 513 0 5,589 496

2002 1,696 1,601 0 5,954 1,038

2003 707 599 0 3,728 542

2004 550 414 0 4,302 484

2005 567 426 0 4,199 505

2006 574 449 0 3,351 486

2007 560 445 0 3,972 463

2008 673 491 0 4,593 628

2009 491 389 0 5,103 411

2002 838 771 0 3,803 559

2003 672 528 0 4,065 565

2004 551 413 0 4,299 487

2005 568 427 0 4,155 505

2006 574 450 0 3,332 488

2007 558 443 0 3,975 462

2008 683 497 0 4,853 640

2009 490 388 0 5,128 412

|UFE| (MW)

|UFE| (MW)

TRUE-UP

FINAL

|UFE| (MW)

INITIAL

UFE 2009 Analysis19


SR12a


2002 -7.0 -7.1 -24.1 16.8 5.1

2003 -1.3 -1.3 -12.7 9.4 3.2

2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9 2.4

2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3 2.6

2006 0.2 0.2 -8.8 11.1 2.5

2007 0.9 0.9 -14.6 14.4 2.5

2008 0.1 0.3 -36.9 11.8 4.3

2009 0.3 0.4 -12.4 15.4 2.3

2002 -5.3 -5.2 -20.6 9.5 3.8

2003 -0.2 -0.4 -10.3 9.4 2.7

2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1 2.1

2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3 2.2

2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.2 2.0

2007 0.9 0.9 -11.2 13.2 1.8

2008 0.5 0.5 -11.1 10.2 2.5

2009 0.4 0.4 -8.0 14.0 1.8

2002 -1.7 -1.8 -14.8 10.5 2.9

2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.9 2.5

2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1 2.1

2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2 2.2

2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.1 2.0

2007 0.9 0.9 -11.3 13.2 1.8

2008 0.4 0.5 -11.8 10.1 2.6

2009 0.4 0.4 -7.9 14.1 1.8

INITIAL

FINAL

TRUE-UP

UFE as PERCENT of LOAD



UFE 2009 Analysis20


SR12b


2002 7.5 7.2 0.0 24.1 4.4

2003 2.8 2.4 0.0 12.7 2.0

2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9 1.5

2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9 1.7

2006 1.9 1.6 0.0 11.1 1.6

2007 2.1 1.7 0.0 14.6 1.7

2008 2.7 1.9 0.0 36.9 3.4

2009 1.8 1.5 0.0 15.4 1.4

2002 5.6 5.2 0.0 20.6 3.5

2003 2.2 1.9 0.0 10.3 1.6

2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4

2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7 1.4

2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.2 1.3

2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3

2008 1.9 1.4 0.0 11.1 1.7

2009 1.4 1.1 0.0 14.0 1.2

2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8 1.9

2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.9 1.5

2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4

2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6 1.4

2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.1 1.3

2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3

2008 2.0 1.4 0.0 11.8 1.8

2009 1.4 1.1 0.0 14.1 1.2

INITIAL

FINAL

TRUE-UP

|UFE as PERCENT of Load|



UFE 2009 Analysis21


SR13a


2002

2003 356 -1,785 -88,773 511,652 17,737

2004 2,279 -57 -76,418 200,563 11,501

2005 4,224 386 -183,607 730,583 24,830

2006 4,131 596 -164,012 524,472 19,452

2007 6,522 3,033 -148,380 971,848 26,131

2008 6,266 1,120 -414,016 2,284,016 59,287

2009 1,364 752 -483,379 948,809 17,139

2002 -2,067 -1,841 -23,686 580,173 21,632

2003 2,663 -635 -132,426 824,621 22,931

2004 2,694 442 -92,510 164,969 10,532

2005 4,738 722 -220,201 596,968 21,409

2006 5,329 1,983 -118,425 452,539 16,076

2007 5,993 3,111 -115,711 649,964 20,154

2008 4,051 1,577 -1,624,294 1,687,088 40,720

2009 1,325 789 -411,979 899,806 14,822

2002 -1,777 -2,287 -121,635 933,143 13,866

2003 4,993 496 -86,677 904,970 24,964

2004 2,923 632 -92,408 168,849 10,577

2005 4,970 776 -212,732 603,737 21,679

2006 5,379 2,020 -116,067 455,747 16,094

2007 5,939 3,062 -115,201 645,980 20,101

2008 3,908 1,544 -1,748,888 1,692,783 42,155

2009 1,280 758 -422,098 892,565 15,035

INITIAL

FINAL

TRUE-UP

Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.

UFE Cost ($)

UFE Cost ($)

UFE Cost ($)

UFE 2009 Analysis22


SR13b


2002

2003 8,804 5,560 0 511,652 15,401

2004 6,887 4,055 0 200,563 9,489

2005 12,447 6,177 0 730,583 21,895

2006 9,886 5,543 0 524,472 17,254

2007 10,847 6,229 0 971,848 24,651

2008 15,831 7,876 0 2,284,016 57,477

2009 5,357 2,976 0 948,809 16,338

2002 5,664 3,579 0 580,173 20,978

2003 8,596 4,699 0 824,621 21,425

2004 6,297 3,630 0 164,969 8,862

2005 10,923 5,345 0 596,968 19,012

2006 8,615 4,670 0 452,539 14,582

2007 8,517 4,977 0 649,964 19,224

2008 11,799 6,100 0 1,687,088 39,183

2009 4,256 2,253 0 899,806 14,259

2002 5,251 3,780 0 933,143 12,955

2003 8,695 4,137 0 904,970 23,928

2004 6,329 3,605 0 168,849 8,964

2005 11,016 5,338 0 603,737 19,321

2006 8,620 4,688 0 455,747 14,617

2007 8,487 4,970 0 645,980 19,164

2008 11,949 6,160 0 1,748,888 40,615

2009 4,260 2,246 0 892,565 14,475

TRUE-UP


INITIAL

FINAL

|UFE Cost| ($)

|UFE Cost| ($)

|UFE Cost| ($)

UFE 2009 Analysis23


SR14a


2002

2003 -1.0 -1.0 -11.4 9.4 3.1

2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9 2.4

2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3 2.6

2006 0.2 0.2 -8.8 11.1 2.5

2007 0.9 0.9 -14.6 14.4 2.5

2008 0.2 0.3 -36.1 11.8 4.2

2009 0.3 0.4 -12.4 15.4 2.3

2002 -2.2 -2.1 -9.4 3.0 2.6

2003 -0.1 -0.3 -8.7 9.4 2.6

2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1 2.1

2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3 2.2

2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.2 2.0

2007 0.9 0.9 -11.2 13.2 1.8

2008 0.5 0.5 -11.1 10.2 2.5

2009 0.4 0.4 -8.0 14.0 1.8

2002 -1.6 -1.8 -14.8 10.5 2.9

2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.5 2.5

2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1 2.1

2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2 2.2

2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.1 2.0

2007 0.9 0.9 -11.3 13.2 1.8

2008 0.4 0.5 -11.8 10.1 2.6

2009 0.4 0.4 -7.9 14.1 1.8

UFE Cost as % of Total Cost

INITIAL

FINAL



TRUE-UP


UFE 2009 Analysis24


SR14b


2002

2003 2.6 2.3 0.0 11.4 1.9

2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9 1.5

2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9 1.7

2006 1.9 1.6 0.0 11.1 1.6

2007 2.1 1.7 0.0 14.6 1.7

2008 2.7 1.8 0.0 36.1 3.2

2009 1.8 1.5 0.0 15.4 1.4

2002 2.7 2.2 0.0 9.4 2.1

2003 2.1 1.9 0.0 9.4 1.5

2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4

2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7 1.4

2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.2 1.3

2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3

2008 1.9 1.4 0.0 11.1 1.7

2009 1.4 1.1 0.0 14.0 1.2

2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8 1.9

2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.5 1.5

2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4

2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6 1.4

2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.1 1.3

2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3

2008 2.0 1.4 0.0 11.8 1.7

2009 1.4 1.1 0.0 14.1 1.2

|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost



TRUE-UP


INITIAL

FINAL

UFE 2009 Analysis25UFD01

Distribution of UFE MW Initial, Final, and True Up - 2009

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0P

erce

nt

of

Inte

rval

s w

ith

UF

E V

alu

es

UFE (MW)

Initial Final True Up

UFE 2009 Analysis26

Distribution of UFE as Percent of Load - 2009

UFD03

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

Lo

ad

UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

Initial Final True-Up

UFE 2009 Analysis27

COMPARISON OF 2007 TO 2009

To provide a frame of reference, some 2009 values are compared to 2007 values. The 2008 values were not used in these comparisons due to major impacts on UFE related to Hurricane Ike.

UFE 2009 Analysis

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Pe

rce

nt o

f In

terv

als

wit

h U

FE

Va

lue

s

UFE (MW)

UFE 2007 UFE 2009Initial Settlement

28

Distribution of UFE MW 2007 vs. 2009 - Initial Settlement

UFD04

UFE 2009 Analysis

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Pe

rce

nt o

f In

terv

als

wit

h U

FE

Va

lue

s

UFE (MW)

UFE 2007 UFE 2009Final Settlement

29

Distribution of UFE MW 2007 vs. 2009 - Final Settlement

UFD05

UFE 2009 Analysis

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Pe

rce

nt o

f In

terv

als

wit

h U

FE

Va

lue

s

UFE (MW)

UFE 2007 UFE 2009True Up Settlement

30

Distribution of UFE MW 2007 vs. 2009 – True Up Settlement

UFD06

UFE 2009 Analysis

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

UF

E P

erc

en

t o

f L

oa

d


UFE 2007 UFE 2009Initial Settlement

31

Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2007 vs 2009 – Initial Settlement

UFD07

UFE 2009 Analysis

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

UF

E P

erc

en

t o

f L

oa

d


UFE 2007 UFE 2009Final Settlement

32

Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2007 vs 2009 – Final Settlement

UFD09

UFE 2009 Analysis

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

UF

E P

erc

en

t o

f L

oa

d


UFE 2007 UFE 2009True Up Settlement

33

Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2007 vs 2009 – True Up Settlement

UFD09

UFE 2009 Analysis34

UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2009Initial Settlement plus95% Confidence Intervals

CIP01

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

ER

CO

T L

oad

Day of the WeekMedian 5th Percentile 95th Percentile

Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat

UFE 2009 Analysis35CIP02

UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2009Final Settlement plus95% Confidence Intervals

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

ER

CO

T L

oad

Day of the Week

Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile



UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2009True-Up Settlement plus95% Confidence Intervals

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

ER

CO

T L

oad

Day of the Week

Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile



UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2009Comparison of Medians for Initial & Final

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

UF

E P

erce

nt o

f E

RC

OT

Lo

ad

Day of the Week

Initial Final

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.

UFE 2009 Analysis38

Seasonal Comparison - Spring 2009UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load

SEA01

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

ER

CO

T L

oad

(M

W)

UF

E P

erc

en

t o

f E

RC

OT

Lo

ad

Day of the Week

Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses



UFE 2009 Analysis39

Seasonal Comparison - Summer 2009UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load

SEA02

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

ER

CO

T L

oad

(M

W)

UF

E P

erce

nt o

f E

RC

OT

Lo

ad

Day of the Week




UFE 2009 Analysis40

Seasonal Comparison - Fall 2009UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load

SEA03

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

ER

CO

T L

oad

(M

W)

UF

E P

erce

nt o

f E

RC

OT

Lo

ad

Day of the Week




UFE 2009 Analysis41

Seasonal Comparison - Winter 2009UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load

SEA04

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

ER

CO

T L

oad

(M

W)

UF

E P

erc

en

t o

f E

RC

OT

Lo

ad

Day of the Week




UFE 2009 Analysis42SEA05

Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Initial SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2009

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

Lo

ad

Day of the Week

Spring Summer Fall Winter



Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Final SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2009

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

Lo

ad

Day of the Week




Seasonal Comparison of Medians – True UpUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2009

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

Lo

ad

Day of the Week



UFE 2009 Analysis45

Sum of Dollars from Positive UFEacross the Week in 2009

UCT02

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Do

llars

Day of the Week


UFE 2009 Analysis46

Sum of Dollars from Negative UFEacross the Week in 2009

UCT03

-600,000

-500,000

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week


UFE 2009 Analysis47UCT04

Sum of Dollars from Absolute Value of UFE across the Week in 2009

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Do

llar

s

Day of the Week


UFE 2009 Analysis48

Sum of Dollars from Net UFE across the Week in 2009

UCT05

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week



SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2009Positive and Negative UFE

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Spring: March 1 - April 30

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Summer: May 1 - September 30

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Fall: October 1 - November 30

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Winter: December 1 - February 28

UFE 2009 Analysis50

SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2009Positive and Negative UFE

UCT07

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)




SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2009Positive and Negative UFE

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Summer: May 1 - September 30


SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2009Positive and Negative UFE

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Fall: October 1 - November 30


SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2009Positive and Negative UFE

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Winter: December 1 - February 28


SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE

-500,000

-250,000

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)



-500,000

-250,000

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

Do

llar

s

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)


Summer: May 1 - Sept 30

-500,000

-250,000

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)


Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30

-500,000

-250,000

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)


Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28

UFE 2009 Analysis55

SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE

UCT12

-500,000

-250,000

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)




SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE

-500,000

-250,000

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

Do

llar

s

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)




SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE

-500,000

-250,000

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)




SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2009 Absolute Value and Net UFE

-500,000

-250,000

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)



UFE 2009 Analysis59

Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2009Positive and Negative UFE

UCT16

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)



-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week




-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week




-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week





Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2009Positive and Negative UFE

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week





Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2009Positive and Negative UFE

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week





Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2009Positive and Negative UFE

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week





Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2009Positive and Negative UFE

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week




UFE 2009 Analysis64

Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2009 Absolute Value and Net UFE

UCT21

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Do

llar

s

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)



-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)



-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)



-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)




Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Do

llar

s

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)




Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)




Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2009 Absolute Value and Net UFE

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)




Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Do

lla

rs

Day of the Week

ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)



UFE 2009 Analysis69

2009 values were compared to 2007 values. The 2008 values were not used due to Hurricane Ike related impacts on UFE.

No extreme weather events occurred in 2009.

Advanced meters were first used in settlements beginning late 2009.

Mean and median UFE (MW) and UFE as Percent of Load declined from 2007 values.

Mean and median UFE Cost ($) and UFE Cost as Percent of Total Cost declined from 2007 values.

Standard deviation values are trending lower.

UFE 2009 Analysis Observations

ufe 2009 analysis

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