turkcell first quarter of 2010...2010/05/05 · - superonline: 62% revenue growth - inteltek:...
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TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010TURKCELL May 6, 2010
Notice
This presentation may contain statements that arep yforward looking. These statements are based oncurrent expectations and assumptions that are subjectto risks and uncertainties which may cause actualresults to differ materially due to factors discussed inff y fthis presentation, in our press release, in the RiskFactors section of Turkcell’s most recent Form 20‐F orin other reports and filings with the US Securities andExchange Commission. We undertake no duty toExchange Commission. We undertake no duty toupdate or revise any forward looking statements,whether as a result of new information, future eventsor otherwise.
Please note that all financial data areconsolidated whereas non‐financial data areunconsolidated unless otherwise specifiedunconsolidated unless otherwise specified.
2
Agenda
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BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Turkcell Group: Improved top line growth
Turkcell GroupTurkcell Group
• Revenues grew by 6.9% YoY- Turkcell Turkey: 7.6% revenue growth mainly due to increased data usage , M U d i
(TRY1 m Consolidated)
Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Revenue 2 103 2 261 2 249 6 9% (0 5%) MoU and interconnect revenues (increased by 44.5%)
- Superonline: 62% revenue growth- Inteltek: revenue decline by TRY 30m
Revenue 2,103 2,261 2,249 6.9% (0.5%)
EBITDA2 774 682 711 (8.1%) 4.3%
due to lower commission rate• 5.2 pp EBITDA margin decline YoY
- 4.9 pp decline due to higher interconnection costs (TRY119 m
EBITDA
Margin236.8% 30.2% 31.6% (5.2 pp) 1.4 pp
interconnection costs (TRY119 m increase)
• Net income impacted by TRY 42m provision due to Authority’s recent
Net Income 563 253 418 (25.8%) 65.2%
Avg. TRY / 1.6407 1,4863 1.5109 (7.9%) 1.7%
1 TRY figures in this slide are based on IFRS TRY figures2 EBITDA is a non‐GAAP financial measure.
administrative finesUS$ rate 1.6407 1,4863 1.5109 (7.9%) 1.7%
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Turkcell Turkey: Maintained leadership, confident for the future…
Market Overview
Decreasing penetration
Q1 2010: Market Trends
Mobile Line PenetrationDecreasing penetration• Decreasing multiple SIM card usage
Value focus• Price adjustments and tariff redesigns
90% 88% 88% 87% 84%
19% 17% 17% 15% 14%
Penetration
Multiple SIM Card Usage
• Increasing ARPU compared to 2009 levels• More focus on profitability and postpaid
Fast growing mobile internetM bil i 3G & i l d
19% 17% 17% 15% 14%g
Subscriber Share
• Mobile internet, 3G & smart terminals and new service offers
Communication• Heavy advertisement activities
56% 57% 56% 56% 56%
44% 43% 44% 44% 44%
Turkcell
Others
• Heavy advertisement activities
Youth focus• Tariff launches & redesigns and communication
Regulatory developments63% 61% 60% 60% 60%
Revenue Share
% 43% % % %
Regulatory developments• Mobile termination rate drop by 52%• Retail price‐cap for voice drop by 38%• Shift from unit to TRY based system for prepaid
37% 39% 40% 40% 40%
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
Turkcell
Others
Source: Market shares, penetration and multiple simcard usage are based on our best estimations, operators’ and ICTA announcements.
subscribers Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
6
Reasonable profitability levels can be achieved in the market
30%
40%
50%
A m
argin(%
)
2nd and 3rd
IndonesiaJapan
SwitzerlandBelgium
Singapore
SpainF
NetherlandsMexico
10%
20%
30%
verage
EBITDA
Turkey
2nd and 3rd operators* in other countries operate at reasonable EBITDA
i l l
ColombiaDenmark
GreeceFranceSweden
0%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Aav
Average subscriber market share (%)
ymargin levels
Unlimited &flat rate offers
MTR cut by 52%38% Reduction in price cap
MTR cut by 33%
20% Reduction in price cap
MNP started
MTR cut by 28%
37% 38%43%
33%38% 35% 36%
31% 33%
20%24% 25%
15%
Turkcell
Vodafone
Avea
EBITDA Margin (%) trend in Turkish Mobile Market**
20% 20% 20%
4% 4%
5% 3% 3%
15%7%
3% 2% 1%
6%
7 **Source: EBITDA figures are based on our best estimations, market estimates, operators’ and ICTA announcements
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
*In terms of subscriber market shares. Source: BofaML Global Wireless Matrix 1Q10; Data as of 2009
Turkcell Turkey: Strong ARPU thru solid MoU and mobile data usage
153 6 153 3
Subscribers (m) • Achieved sustainable
usage growth:
P iti ff t f35.4 36.4 34.3
Total MoU (minutes)
43.3%
7.8 9.4 9.3
107.0
153.6 153.3 ‐ Positive effect of attractive campaigns and tariffs
28 6Q109 Q409 Q110
28.6 26.0 24.9
41.4 39.0 40.4
ARPU (TRY)• Blended ARPU improved
YoY despite MTR decrease:
Q109 Q409 Q110
21%10.6 11.5 11.6
17.1 18.6 19.4
decrease:
‐ Positive effects of attractive tariffs and campaigns
27% 2 %
Prepaid Postpaid
21%
79%
Q109 Q409 Q110Postpaid Prepaid Blended
‐ Positive contribution of mobile data and services revenues
27%
73%
27%
73%
Prepaid Postpaid Postpaid Prepaid Blended
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Turkcell Turkey: Strategy in place for solid growth in data revenues…
Mobile data and services revenues as a proportion of total revenues (%)
Increase smartphone penetration“Encouraging growth in smartphone 19.0%sales in the market (YTDFeb09: 3%; YTDFeb10: 14%*) where Turkcell led the market with approx. 70% market share”
16.3%17.1%
19.0%
15.7%16.3%
18.4%
Accelerate mobile internet adoption“Number of monthly average Q109 4Q09 Q110
Mobile data revenues (TRY m)
Number of monthly average mobile data users increased to approx. 7 million through handsets and PCs”
Q109 4Q09 Q110Turkcell Turkey Consolidated
Lead the market thru mobile services 54.3
81.292.1
69.6%
“12 applications to maintain customer loyalty”
Q109 Q409 Q110
CompassMusic
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Q109 Q409 Q110Mobile TV Turkcell Travel
*Source: Gfk research report, market share as of the end of 2009
Superonline: Improving contribution thru excellent growth
• Maintained positive EBITDA in Q1 2010TRY m Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Financial Highlights
p
• Increasing contribution to Turkcell Group via decreasing dependency to incumbent: Share in Turkcell’s transmission is 33% as of
Revenue 43.9 74.9 71.2 62.2% (4.9%)
EBITDA (7.7) 5.7 5.9 176.6% 3.5%
31 March 2010
• Fiber optic network reached over 10K km as of the end of Q1 2010. On track for
EBITDA Margin %
(17.5%) 7.6% 8.3% 25.8pp 0.7pp
Capex 22.9 125.6 74.4 224.9% (40.8%)as of the end of Q1 2010. On track for achieving 23K km fiber optic network by end of the year
• Extending fiber selectively into urban
Increasing share in Turkcell’s transmission need
128149 154 153
33% Extending fiber selectively into urban areas:- Superonline reached 5 cities and expect
to reach 8 ‐11 cities in 20106891
107 128
13% 20%24%
30%33%
• Estimated capex for 2010 will be approx. TRY500m (~$340m)
6 10 26
68
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110Mobil Data MBU (Mb/User)Turkcell MoU
10
Turkcell MoUSuperonline's share in Turkcell's transmission requirements
Life:) Ukraine Fintur
International Operations: Improved contribution to Turkcell Group
Financial Highlights
Life:) Ukraine“New strategy to drive profitability”
Fintur“increased contribution”
Financial Highlights g g
$ m Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)$ m Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Revenue 79.1 92.8 83.0 4.9% (10.6%)
g g
Revenue 372.8 420.1 378.4 1.5% (9.9%)
Net IncomeContribution
18.1 32.6 36.6 102.2% 12.3%
EBITDA 3.6 6.9 5.8 61.1% (15.9%)
EBITDA M i %
4.6% 7.4% 7.0% 2.4pp (0.4pp)
• Revenue growth in local currency: 8.9% YoY
• 11.9 million registered customers with
• Fintur maintained its market positions as of 31 March 2010:
ContributionMargin %pp ( pp)
11.9 million registered customers with approx. 23% market share as of 31 March 2010
• New strategy: More focus on customer
- Added approx. 0.5m net subscribers
- Total subscribers reached 14.1 million
• Fintur’s contribution to net income increased gyvalue, innovation and profitable growth- Tariff redesigns, focus on profitability per
subscriber and cost cutting measures
Hi h fi bili d i 2010
by 102% mainly due to improved performance of Kazakhstan and foreignexchange rate impact
- Higher profitability expected in 2010
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Turkcell Group: Action Plan in 2010
Guidance (Revised)
• Redesigned all offers while ensuring the optimum balance between revenue growth and customer expectationke
y
Guidance (Revised)• Advertise strongly Turkcell advantages• Grow postpaid base and improve ARPU • Ensure healthy growth in MoU• Focus on new mobile services & internetkc
ell Turk
2010 Target
Superonline
• Focus on new mobile services & internet• Continue to improve cost efficiencyTu
rk
Moderategrowth
Moderategrowth
Revenue
EBITDASuperonline
• Focus on growth in fixed broadband‐ Capitalize on Turkcell synergies‐ Expand fiber network roll‐out
CAPEX TRY2.4bn (~$1.5bn)TRY2.4bn (~$1.5bn)
Expand fiber network roll out‐ Drive convergence & total telco solutions
International Operations
• Focus on EBITDA and profitable growtharies Turkcell Turkey: TRY1.0bn (~$0.65bn)
Superonline: TRY0.5bn (~$0.34bn)Int’l Subsidiaries: TRY0 6 bn (~$0 4bn)
Turkcell Turkey: TRY1.0bn (~$0.65bn)Superonline: TRY0.5bn (~$0.34bn)Int’l Subsidiaries: TRY0 6 bn (~$0 4bn)• Focus on EBITDA and profitable growth
‐ Focus on customer segmentation‐ Push technology and mobile internet
Subsidia Int l Subsidiaries: TRY0.6 bn ( $0.4bn)Int l Subsidiaries: TRY0.6 bn ( $0.4bn)
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FINANCIAL REVIEW
NOTICE:Please note that all financial data are consolidated whereas non-financial data are unconsolidated unless otherwise specified.EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please refer to the press release for the reconciliation of EBITDA to net cash from operating activities.All non financial data are unconsolidated prepared in accordance with IFRS and expressed in US$ and/or TRYAll non-financial data are unconsolidated, prepared in accordance with IFRS and expressed in US$ and/or TRY.The figures used in this presentation are rounded while percentage changes are calculated based on the figures disclosed in the Q1 2010 resultannouncement press release.
Turkcell Group achieved 6.9% revenue growth YoY
2,24978
5 (25) 3
Δ in Turkcell Turkey: ∑ TRY 143mQ110 vs Q109YoY: 6.9%
2,10317
68
78
Revenue Q109 Δ in Outgoing Δ in Incoming Δ in Mobiled t & i
Δ in Roaming Δ in Others Δ in S b idi i
Revenue Q110data&services Subsidiaries
(17) 5
Δ in Turkcell Turkey: ∑ TRY 19mQ110 vs Q409QoQ: (0.5%)
2,2612,249
(31) 20
42 5(31)
Revenue Q409 Δ in Outgoing Δ in Incoming Δ in Mobile Δ in Roaming Δ in Others Δ in Revenue Q110
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Revenue Q409 Δ in Outgoing Δ in Incoming Δ in Mobiledata&services
Δ in Roaming Δ in Others Δ in Subsidiaries
Revenue Q110
(*): Incoming presents interconnect revenues.
EBITDA margin YoY
36.8%
Δ in Direct cost ofRevenues*= ∑ (5.5%)
Δ in G&A Expenses= ∑ (0.8%)
Q110 vs Q109YoY: (5.2pp)
31.6%(4.9 pp) (0.6 pp) (0.6 pp) (0.2 pp)
1.1 pp
EBITDA Q109 Δ in Inter costs Δ in Others Δ in Bad debt Δ in Others Δ in Selling & EBITDA Q110EBITDA Q109 Δ in Inter. costs Δ in Others Δ in Bad debt exp.
Δ in Others Δ in Selling & Marketing exp.
EBITDA Q110
0 9
Δ in Direct cost ofRevenues*= ∑ 0.6%
Δ in G&A Expenses= ∑ (0.1%)Q110 vs Q409
QoQ: 1.4pp
30.2%31.6%
0.3 pp0.3 pp 0.0 pp (0.1 pp)
0.9 pp
EBITDA 4Q09 Δ in Inter. costs Δ in Others Δ in Bad debt Δ in Others Δ in Selling & EBITDA Q110exp. Marketing exp.
15*Depreciation and amortization expenses are not included
Net Income YoY
563
418(124)
% of Revenues
26.8% 18.6%
418(124)(25) 31
(87)(11)
70
Δ in EBITDA (62)
Δ i D i i (62) Δ in Minority 32
Net income Q109
Δ in EBIT Δ in Interest I /E
Δ in Equity in N t I /L
Δ in FX G i /L
Δ in Other I /E
Δ in Taxation Net income Q110
Δ in Depreciation (62) Δ in Minority 32
Δ in Legal provisions (42)
30 155
(10)
Q109 Inc./Exp. Net Inc./Loss Gain/Loss Inc./Exp. Q110
% of Revenues
11.2% 18.6%
253
41854
30 7(72)
155
Δ in EBITDA 29
Δ in Minority 23
Goodwill Impairment 92
Net income Q409
Δ in EBIT Δ in Interest I /E
Δ in Equity in N t I /L
Δ in FX G i /L
Δ in Other I /E
Δ in Taxation Net income Q110
Δ in Depreciation 25
Goodwill Impairment 92
Other 40
Q409 Inc./Exp. Net Inc./Loss Gain/Loss Inc./Exp. Q110
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Balance sheet position
TRY m Q109 Q409 Q110
Cash & Cash 4,799 4,661 4,381
Cash Flow as at 31 March 2010
Equivalents
Total Assets 12,917 14,034 14,193
Total Debt (1,311) (2,277) (2,298)
711 (367)
81 (705)
Net Cash 3,488 2,384 2,083
Total Equity 8,869 8,878 9,278
Debt/Annualized 39.2% 76.4% 78.8%
4,6614,381
/EBITDA
Equity ratio 68.7% 63.3% 65.4%
• Improved balance sheet efficiency• Improved balance sheet efficiency
– Debt/ annualized EBITDA increased to 78.8%– Consolidated debt of TRY2.3bn mainly relate to our Ukrainian operations (TRY0.9bn) and
Cash at 31‐Dec‐09
EBITDA Capex Financing Other Cash at 31‐Mar‐10
to our Ukrainian operations (TRY0.9bn) and Turkcell Turkey (TRY0.5bn)
• Returning value to our shareholders through TRY859 million dividend distribution
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Summary Income Statement as per CMB1 Financials (TRY million)
(TRY1 m Consolidated) Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Revenue 2,103.4 2,260.6 2,248.9 6.9% (0.5%)
Direct Cost of
Revenues2 (1,029.3) (1,316.1) (1,274.7) 23.8% (3.1%)(1,029.3) (1,316.1) (1,274.7) 23.8% (3.1%)
S&M (391.8) (416.8) (391.7) 0.0% (6.0%)
G&A (98.2) (122.0) (124.4) 26.7% 2.0%(98.2) (122.0) (124.4) 26.7% 2.0%
EBITDA 773.6 681.9 711.3 (8.1%) 4.3%
EBITDA Margin 36 8% 30 2% 31 6% (5 2pp) 1 4ppg 36.8% 30.2% 31.6% (5.2pp) 1.4pp
Net Income 566.1 258.8 419.8 (25.8%) 62.2%
1 Capital Markets Board of Turkey2 Depreciation and amortization is included
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Consolidated Cash Flow ($ million)
Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
( )EBITDA 472.2 459.1 471.1 (0.2%) 2.6%
LESS:
Capex and License (252.0) (401.7) (240.9) (4.4%) (40.0%)p (252.0) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
Turkcell (181.6) (162.1) (118.6) (34.7%) (26.8%)
Ukraine (42.2) (106.8) (27.1) (35.8%) (74.6%)
Investment & MarketableInvestment & Marketable Securities (76.4) (100.0) 27.9 (136.5%) (127.9%)
Net Interest Income/Expense 61.1 30.2 70.7 15.7% 134.1%
Other (617 4) 119.4 (520.2) (15.7%) (535.7%)(617.4) 9. ( ) ( ) ( )
Net Change in Debt (4.1) 346.0 (25.0) 509.8% (107.2%)
Cash Generated (416.6) 453.0 (216.4) (48.1%) (147.8%)
Cash Balance 2 843 2 3 095 5 2 879 1 1 3% (7 0%)Cash Balance 2,843.2 3,095.5 2,879.1 1.3% (7.0%)
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Consolidated Balance Sheet ($ million)
Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Cash & bank 2,843 3,095 2,879 1.3% (7.0%)
CURRENT ASSETS 3,838 4,254 4,186 9.1% (1.6%)
Fixed assets, net 3,326 4,550 4,571 37.4% 0.5%
Other long term assets 488 516 571 17.0% 10.7%
Total Non‐current Assets 3,814 5,067 5,142 34.8% 1.5%
Total Assets 7,652 9,321 9,328 21.9% 0.1%
S/t debt 606 691 673 11.1% (2.6%)
Total Current Liabilities 1,805 2,297 2,039 13.0% (11.2%)
L / t debt 171 821 838 390 1% 2 1%L / t debt 171 821 838 390.1% 2.1%
Total Non‐current Liabilities 593 1,128 1,191 100.8% 5.6%
Minority Interest 61 37 25 (59.0%) (32.4%)
Share Capital 1 636 1 636 1 636 0 0% 0 0%Share Capital 1,636 1,636 1,636 0.0% 0.0%
Total Shareholders' Equity 5,254 5,860 6,073 15.6% 3.6%
Total Equity and Liabilities 7,652 9,321 9,328 21.9% 0.1%
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