turkcell first quarter of 2010...2010/05/05  · - superonline: 62% revenue growth - inteltek:...

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TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010 TURKCELL May 6, 2010

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Page 1: TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010...2010/05/05  · - Superonline: 62% revenue growth - Inteltek: revenue decline by TRY 30m 2,103 261 249 6 .9% (0 5%) EBITDA2 774 682 711 (8.1%) 4.3%

TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010TURKCELL May 6, 2010

Page 2: TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010...2010/05/05  · - Superonline: 62% revenue growth - Inteltek: revenue decline by TRY 30m 2,103 261 249 6 .9% (0 5%) EBITDA2 774 682 711 (8.1%) 4.3%

Notice

This presentation may contain statements that arep yforward looking. These statements are based oncurrent expectations and assumptions that are subjectto risks and uncertainties which may cause actualresults to differ materially due to factors discussed inff y fthis presentation, in our press release, in the RiskFactors section of Turkcell’s most recent Form 20‐F orin other reports and filings with the US Securities andExchange Commission. We undertake no duty toExchange Commission. We undertake no duty toupdate or revise any forward looking statements,whether as a result of new information, future eventsor otherwise.

Please note that all financial data areconsolidated whereas non‐financial data areunconsolidated unless otherwise specifiedunconsolidated unless otherwise specified.

2

Page 3: TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010...2010/05/05  · - Superonline: 62% revenue growth - Inteltek: revenue decline by TRY 30m 2,103 261 249 6 .9% (0 5%) EBITDA2 774 682 711 (8.1%) 4.3%

Agenda

3

Page 4: TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010...2010/05/05  · - Superonline: 62% revenue growth - Inteltek: revenue decline by TRY 30m 2,103 261 249 6 .9% (0 5%) EBITDA2 774 682 711 (8.1%) 4.3%

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

Page 5: TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010...2010/05/05  · - Superonline: 62% revenue growth - Inteltek: revenue decline by TRY 30m 2,103 261 249 6 .9% (0 5%) EBITDA2 774 682 711 (8.1%) 4.3%

Turkcell Group: Improved top line growth

Turkcell GroupTurkcell Group

• Revenues grew by 6.9% YoY- Turkcell Turkey: 7.6% revenue growth mainly due to increased data usage , M U d i

(TRY1 m Consolidated)

Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Revenue 2 103 2 261 2 249 6 9% (0 5%) MoU and interconnect revenues (increased by 44.5%)

- Superonline: 62% revenue growth- Inteltek: revenue decline by TRY 30m 

Revenue 2,103 2,261 2,249 6.9% (0.5%)

EBITDA2 774 682 711 (8.1%) 4.3%

due to lower commission rate• 5.2 pp EBITDA margin decline YoY

- 4.9 pp decline due to higher interconnection costs (TRY119 m

EBITDA 

Margin236.8% 30.2% 31.6% (5.2 pp) 1.4 pp

interconnection costs (TRY119 m increase)

• Net income impacted by TRY 42m provision due to Authority’s recent

Net Income 563 253 418 (25.8%) 65.2%

Avg. TRY / 1.6407 1,4863 1.5109 (7.9%) 1.7%

1  TRY  figures in this slide are based on IFRS TRY figures2  EBITDA is a non‐GAAP financial measure. 

administrative finesUS$ rate 1.6407 1,4863 1.5109 (7.9%) 1.7%

5

Page 6: TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010...2010/05/05  · - Superonline: 62% revenue growth - Inteltek: revenue decline by TRY 30m 2,103 261 249 6 .9% (0 5%) EBITDA2 774 682 711 (8.1%) 4.3%

Turkcell Turkey: Maintained leadership, confident for the future…

Market Overview

Decreasing penetration

Q1 2010: Market Trends

Mobile Line PenetrationDecreasing penetration• Decreasing multiple SIM card usage

Value focus• Price adjustments and tariff redesigns

90% 88% 88% 87% 84%

19% 17% 17% 15% 14%

Penetration

Multiple SIM Card Usage

• Increasing ARPU compared to 2009 levels• More focus on profitability  and postpaid

Fast growing mobile internetM bil i 3G & i l d

19% 17% 17% 15% 14%g

Subscriber Share

• Mobile internet, 3G &  smart terminals and new service offers

Communication• Heavy advertisement activities

56% 57% 56% 56% 56%

44% 43% 44% 44% 44%

Turkcell

Others

• Heavy advertisement activities

Youth focus• Tariff launches & redesigns and communication

Regulatory developments63% 61% 60% 60% 60%

Revenue Share

% 43% % % %

Regulatory  developments• Mobile termination rate drop by 52%• Retail price‐cap for voice drop by 38%• Shift from unit to TRY based system for prepaid 

37% 39% 40% 40% 40%

Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110

Turkcell

Others

Source: Market shares, penetration and multiple simcard usage are based on our best estimations, operators’ and ICTA announcements.

subscribers Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110

6

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Reasonable profitability levels can be achieved in the market

30%

40%

50%

A m

argin(%

)

2nd and 3rd

IndonesiaJapan

SwitzerlandBelgium

Singapore

SpainF

NetherlandsMexico

10%

20%

30%

verage

EBITDA

Turkey

2nd and 3rd operators* in other countries operate at reasonable EBITDA 

i l l

ColombiaDenmark

GreeceFranceSweden

0%

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Aav

Average subscriber market share (%)

ymargin levels

Unlimited &flat rate offers

MTR cut by 52%38% Reduction in price cap

MTR cut by 33%

20% Reduction in price cap

MNP started

MTR cut by 28%

37% 38%43%

33%38% 35% 36%

31% 33%

20%24% 25%

15%

Turkcell

Vodafone

Avea

EBITDA Margin  (%) trend in Turkish Mobile Market**

20% 20% 20%

4% 4%

5% 3% 3%

15%7%

3% 2% 1%

6%

7 **Source: EBITDA figures are based on our best estimations, market estimates, operators’ and ICTA announcements

Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110

*In terms of subscriber market shares. Source: BofaML Global Wireless Matrix 1Q10; Data as of 2009

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Turkcell Turkey: Strong ARPU thru solid MoU and mobile data usage

153 6 153 3

Subscribers (m) • Achieved sustainable 

usage growth:

P iti ff t f35.4 36.4 34.3 

Total MoU (minutes) 

43.3% 

7.8   9.4    9.3   

107.0   

153.6    153.3    ‐ Positive effect of  attractive campaigns and tariffs

28 6Q109 Q409 Q110

28.6    26.0    24.9   

41.4 39.0 40.4

ARPU (TRY)• Blended ARPU improved 

YoY despite MTR decrease:

Q109 Q409 Q110

21%10.6 11.5 11.6

17.1 18.6 19.4

decrease:

‐ Positive effects of attractive tariffs and campaigns

27% 2 %

Prepaid Postpaid

21%

79%

Q109 Q409 Q110Postpaid Prepaid Blended

‐ Positive contribution of mobile data and services revenues

27%

73%

27%

73%

Prepaid Postpaid Postpaid Prepaid Blended

8

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Turkcell Turkey: Strategy in place for solid growth in data revenues…

Mobile data and services revenues as a proportion of total revenues (%)

Increase smartphone penetration“Encouraging growth in smartphone  19.0%sales in the market (YTDFeb09: 3%; YTDFeb10: 14%*) where Turkcell led the market with approx. 70% market share”

16.3%17.1%

19.0%

15.7%16.3%

18.4%

Accelerate mobile internet adoption“Number of monthly average Q109 4Q09 Q110

Mobile data revenues (TRY m)

Number of monthly average mobile data users increased to approx. 7 million through handsets and PCs”

Q109 4Q09 Q110Turkcell Turkey Consolidated

Lead the market        thru mobile services 54.3

81.292.1

69.6% 

“12 applications to maintain customer loyalty”

Q109 Q409 Q110

CompassMusic

9

Q109 Q409 Q110Mobile TV Turkcell Travel

*Source: Gfk research report, market share as of the end of 2009

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Superonline: Improving contribution thru excellent growth 

• Maintained positive EBITDA in Q1 2010TRY m  Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Financial Highlights

p

• Increasing contribution to Turkcell Group via decreasing dependency to incumbent: Share in Turkcell’s transmission is 33% as of 

Revenue  43.9 74.9 71.2 62.2% (4.9%)

EBITDA  (7.7) 5.7 5.9 176.6% 3.5%

31 March 2010 

• Fiber optic network reached over 10K km as of the end of Q1 2010. On track for

EBITDA Margin %

(17.5%) 7.6% 8.3% 25.8pp 0.7pp

Capex 22.9 125.6 74.4 224.9% (40.8%)as of the end of Q1 2010. On track for achieving 23K km fiber optic network by end of the year 

• Extending fiber selectively into urban

Increasing share in Turkcell’s transmission need

128149  154  153 

33% Extending fiber selectively into urban areas:- Superonline reached 5 cities and expect 

to reach 8 ‐11 cities in 20106891

107 128 

13% 20%24%

30%33%

• Estimated capex for 2010 will be approx. TRY500m (~$340m)

6  10 26 

68 

Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110Mobil Data MBU (Mb/User)Turkcell MoU

10

Turkcell MoUSuperonline's share in Turkcell's transmission requirements

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Life:) Ukraine Fintur

International Operations: Improved contribution to Turkcell Group 

Financial Highlights

Life:) Ukraine“New strategy to drive profitability”

Fintur“increased contribution”

Financial Highlights g g

$ m  Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)$ m  Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Revenue  79.1 92.8 83.0 4.9% (10.6%)

g g

Revenue  372.8 420.1 378.4 1.5% (9.9%)

Net IncomeContribution

18.1 32.6 36.6 102.2% 12.3%

EBITDA  3.6 6.9 5.8 61.1% (15.9%)

EBITDA M i %

4.6% 7.4% 7.0% 2.4pp (0.4pp)

• Revenue growth in local currency: 8.9% YoY

• 11.9 million registered customers with

• Fintur maintained its market positions as of 31 March 2010:

ContributionMargin %pp ( pp)

11.9 million registered customers with approx. 23% market share as of 31 March 2010

• New strategy: More focus on customer 

- Added approx. 0.5m net subscribers

- Total subscribers reached 14.1 million

• Fintur’s contribution to net income increased gyvalue, innovation and profitable growth- Tariff redesigns, focus on profitability per 

subscriber and cost cutting measures

Hi h fi bili d i 2010

by 102% mainly due to  improved performance of Kazakhstan and foreignexchange rate impact

- Higher profitability expected in 2010

11

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Turkcell Group: Action Plan in 2010

Guidance (Revised)

• Redesigned all offers while ensuring the optimum balance between revenue growth and customer expectationke

y

Guidance (Revised)• Advertise strongly Turkcell advantages• Grow postpaid base and improve ARPU • Ensure healthy growth in MoU• Focus on new mobile services & internetkc

ell  Turk

2010 Target

Superonline

• Focus on new mobile services & internet• Continue to improve cost efficiencyTu

rk

Moderategrowth

Moderategrowth

Revenue

EBITDASuperonline

• Focus on growth in fixed broadband‐ Capitalize on Turkcell synergies‐ Expand fiber network roll‐out

CAPEX TRY2.4bn (~$1.5bn)TRY2.4bn (~$1.5bn)

Expand fiber network roll out‐ Drive convergence & total telco solutions

International Operations

• Focus on EBITDA and profitable growtharies Turkcell Turkey:     TRY1.0bn (~$0.65bn)

Superonline:          TRY0.5bn (~$0.34bn)Int’l Subsidiaries: TRY0 6 bn (~$0 4bn)

Turkcell Turkey:     TRY1.0bn (~$0.65bn)Superonline:          TRY0.5bn (~$0.34bn)Int’l Subsidiaries: TRY0 6 bn (~$0 4bn)• Focus on EBITDA and profitable growth 

‐ Focus on customer segmentation‐ Push technology and mobile internet

Subsidia Int l Subsidiaries:  TRY0.6 bn ( $0.4bn)Int l Subsidiaries:  TRY0.6 bn ( $0.4bn)

12

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FINANCIAL REVIEW

NOTICE:Please note that all financial data are consolidated whereas non-financial data are unconsolidated unless otherwise specified.EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please refer to the press release for the reconciliation of EBITDA to net cash from operating activities.All non financial data are unconsolidated prepared in accordance with IFRS and expressed in US$ and/or TRYAll non-financial data are unconsolidated, prepared in accordance with IFRS and expressed in US$ and/or TRY.The figures used in this presentation are rounded while percentage changes are calculated based on the figures disclosed in the Q1 2010 resultannouncement press release.

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Turkcell Group achieved 6.9% revenue growth YoY

2,24978

5 (25) 3

Δ in Turkcell Turkey: ∑ TRY 143mQ110 vs Q109YoY: 6.9%

2,10317

68

78

Revenue Q109 Δ in Outgoing Δ in Incoming Δ in  Mobiled t & i

Δ in Roaming Δ in Others Δ in S b idi i

Revenue Q110data&services Subsidiaries

(17) 5

Δ in Turkcell Turkey: ∑ TRY 19mQ110 vs Q409QoQ: (0.5%)

2,2612,249

(31) 20

42 5(31)

Revenue Q409 Δ in Outgoing Δ in Incoming Δ in Mobile Δ in Roaming Δ in Others Δ in Revenue Q110

14

Revenue Q409 Δ in Outgoing Δ in Incoming Δ in  Mobiledata&services

Δ in Roaming Δ in Others Δ in Subsidiaries

Revenue Q110

(*): Incoming presents interconnect revenues.

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EBITDA margin YoY

36.8%

Δ in Direct cost ofRevenues*= ∑ (5.5%)

Δ in G&A Expenses= ∑ (0.8%)

Q110 vs Q109YoY: (5.2pp)

31.6%(4.9 pp) (0.6 pp) (0.6 pp) (0.2 pp)

1.1 pp

EBITDA Q109 Δ in Inter costs Δ in Others Δ in Bad debt Δ in Others Δ in Selling & EBITDA Q110EBITDA Q109 Δ in Inter. costs Δ in Others Δ in Bad debt exp.

Δ in Others Δ in Selling & Marketing exp.

EBITDA Q110

0 9

Δ in Direct cost ofRevenues*= ∑ 0.6%

Δ in G&A Expenses= ∑ (0.1%)Q110 vs Q409

QoQ: 1.4pp

30.2%31.6%

0.3 pp0.3 pp 0.0 pp (0.1 pp)

0.9 pp

EBITDA 4Q09 Δ in Inter. costs Δ in Others Δ in Bad debt  Δ in Others Δ in Selling &  EBITDA Q110exp. Marketing exp.

15*Depreciation and amortization expenses are not included

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Net Income YoY

563

418(124)

% of Revenues

26.8% 18.6%

418(124)(25) 31

(87)(11)

70

Δ in EBITDA (62)

Δ i D i i (62) Δ in Minority 32

Net income  Q109

Δ in EBIT Δ in Interest I /E

Δ in Equity in N t I /L

Δ in FX G i /L

Δ in Other I /E

Δ in Taxation Net income  Q110

Δ in Depreciation (62) Δ in Minority 32

Δ in Legal provisions (42)

30 155

(10)

Q109 Inc./Exp. Net Inc./Loss Gain/Loss Inc./Exp. Q110

% of Revenues

11.2% 18.6%

253

41854

30 7(72)

155

Δ in EBITDA 29

Δ in Minority 23

Goodwill Impairment 92

Net income  Q409

Δ in EBIT Δ in Interest I /E

Δ in Equity in N t I /L

Δ in FX G i /L

Δ in Other I /E

Δ in Taxation Net income  Q110

Δ in Depreciation 25

Goodwill Impairment 92

Other 40

Q409 Inc./Exp. Net Inc./Loss Gain/Loss Inc./Exp. Q110

16

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Balance sheet position

TRY m Q109 Q409 Q110

Cash & Cash  4,799 4,661 4,381

Cash Flow as at 31 March 2010

Equivalents 

Total Assets  12,917 14,034 14,193

Total Debt  (1,311) (2,277) (2,298)

711 (367)

81 (705)

Net Cash 3,488 2,384 2,083

Total Equity  8,869 8,878 9,278

Debt/Annualized 39.2% 76.4% 78.8%

4,6614,381

/EBITDA 

Equity ratio 68.7% 63.3% 65.4%

• Improved balance sheet efficiency• Improved balance sheet efficiency

– Debt/ annualized EBITDA increased to 78.8%– Consolidated debt of TRY2.3bn mainly relate  to our Ukrainian operations (TRY0.9bn) and

Cash at 31‐Dec‐09

EBITDA Capex Financing Other Cash at 31‐Mar‐10

to our Ukrainian operations (TRY0.9bn) and Turkcell Turkey (TRY0.5bn)

• Returning value to our shareholders through TRY859 million dividend distribution

17

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Summary Income Statement as per CMB1 Financials (TRY  million)

(TRY1 m Consolidated) Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Revenue 2,103.4  2,260.6  2,248.9  6.9% (0.5%)

Direct Cost of 

Revenues2    (1,029.3) (1,316.1) (1,274.7) 23.8% (3.1%)(1,029.3) (1,316.1) (1,274.7) 23.8% (3.1%)

S&M   (391.8) (416.8) (391.7) 0.0% (6.0%)

G&A   (98.2) (122.0) (124.4) 26.7% 2.0%(98.2) (122.0) (124.4) 26.7% 2.0%

EBITDA 773.6  681.9  711.3  (8.1%) 4.3%

EBITDA Margin 36 8% 30 2% 31 6% (5 2pp) 1 4ppg 36.8% 30.2% 31.6% (5.2pp) 1.4pp

Net Income 566.1  258.8  419.8  (25.8%) 62.2%

1 Capital Markets Board of Turkey2 Depreciation and amortization is included

19

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Consolidated Cash Flow ($ million)

Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

( )EBITDA 472.2 459.1 471.1 (0.2%) 2.6%

LESS:

Capex and License (252.0) (401.7) (240.9) (4.4%) (40.0%)p (252.0) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Turkcell (181.6) (162.1) (118.6) (34.7%) (26.8%)

Ukraine (42.2) (106.8) (27.1) (35.8%) (74.6%)

Investment & MarketableInvestment & Marketable Securities (76.4) (100.0) 27.9 (136.5%) (127.9%)

Net Interest Income/Expense 61.1 30.2 70.7 15.7% 134.1%

Other (617 4) 119.4 (520.2) (15.7%) (535.7%)(617.4) 9. ( ) ( ) ( )

Net Change in Debt (4.1) 346.0 (25.0) 509.8% (107.2%)

Cash Generated (416.6) 453.0 (216.4) (48.1%) (147.8%)

Cash Balance 2 843 2 3 095 5 2 879 1 1 3% (7 0%)Cash Balance 2,843.2 3,095.5 2,879.1 1.3% (7.0%)

20

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Consolidated Balance Sheet ($ million)

Q109 Q409 Q110 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Cash & bank  2,843  3,095 2,879  1.3% (7.0%)

CURRENT ASSETS   3,838  4,254 4,186 9.1% (1.6%)

Fixed assets, net  3,326  4,550 4,571 37.4% 0.5%

Other long term assets   488  516 571 17.0% 10.7%

Total Non‐current Assets 3,814  5,067 5,142 34.8% 1.5%

Total Assets   7,652  9,321 9,328 21.9% 0.1%

S/t debt   606  691 673 11.1% (2.6%)

Total Current Liabilities  1,805  2,297 2,039 13.0% (11.2%)

L / t debt 171 821 838 390 1% 2 1%L / t debt   171  821 838 390.1% 2.1%

Total Non‐current Liabilities  593  1,128 1,191 100.8% 5.6%

Minority Interest  61  37 25 (59.0%) (32.4%)

Share Capital 1 636 1 636 1 636 0 0% 0 0%Share Capital   1,636  1,636 1,636 0.0% 0.0%

Total Shareholders' Equity  5,254 5,860 6,073 15.6% 3.6%

Total Equity and Liabilities  7,652  9,321 9,328 21.9% 0.1%

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Page 22: TURKCELL First Quarter of 2010...2010/05/05  · - Superonline: 62% revenue growth - Inteltek: revenue decline by TRY 30m 2,103 261 249 6 .9% (0 5%) EBITDA2 774 682 711 (8.1%) 4.3%

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