TRIP GENERATIONTRIP GENERATION

The Conventional “Four Step” Modelling ProcessThe Conventional “Four Step” Modelling Process Hutchinson, 1973Hutchinson, 1973

• Shall I travel somewhere?– The Trip Generation Step

• Where shall I go?– The Trip Distribution Step

• Which mode of transport shall I use?– The Modal Choice Step

• Which route shall I take?– The Traffic Assignment Step

4 Tipe Pergerakan

• Eksternal Eksternal, zona asal dan tujuan berada diluar daerah kajian;

• Internal Internal, salah satu zona asa atau tujuan berada diluar daerah kajian;

• Internal Internal, zona asal dan tujuan berada didalam daerah kajian;

• Intrazona, zona asal dan tujuan berada didalam satu zona tertentu.

Model Bangkitan PergerakanModel Bangkitan Pergerakan

• Tujuan menghasilkan model hubungan yang mengaitkan parameter fungsi lahan dengan jumlah pergerakan yang menuju dan meninggalkan suatu zona

• Zona asal dan tujuan pergerakan biasanya dikenal dengan istilah TRIP END

• Menggunakan data berbasis zona untuk memodelkan besarnya pergerakan yang terjadi.

TRIP-END DEFINITIONSTRIP-END DEFINITIONS[Tamin, Ofyar Z, 2000][Tamin, Ofyar Z, 2000]

TRIP-END DEFINITIONSTRIP-END DEFINITIONS[Papacostas & Prevedouros, 1993][Papacostas & Prevedouros, 1993]

NON RESIDENTIAL

RESIDENTIAL

RESIDENTIAL

Food Mart

NON RESIDENTIAL

Zone j Zone i

Two trip ends; one originand one destination, or two productions

Two trip ends; one originand one destination,

or two attractions

Klasifikasi Pergerakan Berdasarkan:

1. Tujuan• Kerja, sekolah, belanja, rekreasi

2. Waktu• Pagi, siang, dan sore hari

3. Karakteristik Individu• Tingkat pendapatan, pemilikan kendaraan,

ukuran dan struktur rumah tangga

Faktor yang Mempengaruhi:

1. Bangkitan Pergerakan untuk Manusia• Pendapatan, pemilikan kendaraan, ukuran &

struktur rumah tangga, nilai lahan, kepadatan penduduk, aksesibilitas.

2. Tarikan Pergerakan untuk Manusia• Luas lantai kegiatan, jumlah lapangan

pekerjaan, aksesibilitas.3. Bangkitan dan Tarikan Pergerakan untuk

Barang• Jumlah lapangan pekerjaan, jumlah tempat

pemasaran, luas lahan industri.

Alur Pemodelan Regresi:

The selected explanatory variables:

1. Must be linearly related to the dependent variable,

2. Must be highly correlated with the dependent variable,

3. Must not be highly correlated between themselves,

4. Must lend themselves to relatively easy projection.

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

REGRESSION

SimpleY = a + bX

MultipleY = a + b1X1 + … + bnXn

LinearY = a + bX

Non-LinearY = a + bx + cx2

Y = aXb

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

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Regression ModelsRegression Models::

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Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Regression ModelsRegression Models::

Pearson Correlation Matrix:Pearson Correlation Matrix:

Y X1 X2 X3 X4

Y 1,00 0,32 0,92 0,95 0,62

X1 1,00 0,25 0,19 0,03

X2 1,00 0,99 0,29

X3 1,00 0,33

X4 1,00

Alternative Regression Models:Alternative Regression Models:

1. Y = a0 + a2X2

2. Y = b0 + b3X3

3. Y = c0 + c4X4

4. Y = d0 + d2X2 + d4X4

5. Y = e0 + e3X3 + e4X4

TRIP-RATE Analysis TRIP-RATE Analysis [Papacostas & Prevedouros, 1993][Papacostas & Prevedouros, 1993]

Trip-rate analysis refers to several models

that are based on the determination of the

average trip production or trip attraction

rates associated with the important trip

generators within the region.

TRIP-RATE Analysis TRIP-RATE Analysis [Tamin, Ofyar Z, 2000][Tamin, Ofyar Z, 2000]

Masuk Keluar Total Masuk Keluar Total Masuk Keluar Total

7:00 0.73 0.27 1.00 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00

8:00 0.26 0.16 0.42 0.08 0.04 0.12 0.41 0.23 0.64

9:00 0.25 0.18 0.43 0.55 0.15 0.70 0.46 0.35 0.81

10:00 0.22 0.16 0.38 0.80 0.42 1.22 0.41 0.26 0.67

11:00 0.23 0.22 0.45 0.78 0.65 1.43 0.30 0.27 0.57

12:00 0.19 0.23 0.42 0.60 0.56 1.16 0.24 0.27 0.51

13:00 0.23 0.19 0.42 0.65 0.59 1.24 0.34 0.33 0.67

14:00 0.17 0.17 0.34 0.57 0.70 1.27 0.32 0.37 0.69

15:00 0.19 0.18 0.37 0.61 0.68 1.29 0.31 0.45 0.76

16:00 0.20 0.51 0.71 0.50 0.95 1.45 0.29 0.32 0.61

17:00 0.10 0.34 0.44 0.45 0.58 1.03 0.29 0.31 0.60

18:00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.32 0.71

19:00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.32 0.68

Perkantoran (smp/100m2) Pertokoan (smp/100m2) Hotel (smp/100m2)Waktu

TRIP-RATE Analysis TRIP-RATE Analysis [Tamin, Ofyar Z, 2000][Tamin, Ofyar Z, 2000]

Masuk Keluar Masuk Keluar Masuk Keluar Masuk Keluar

7:00 308 114 12 6 0 0 321 120 201

8:00 110 68 24 12 66 37 200 117 284

9:00 106 76 166 45 75 57 347 178 453

10:00 93 68 242 127 66 42 401 237 617

11:00 97 93 236 197 49 44 382 333 666

12:00 80 97 182 169 39 44 301 310 657

13:00 97 80 197 178 55 53 349 312 694

14:00 72 72 172 212 52 60 296 344 646

15:00 80 76 185 206 50 73 315 355 606

16:00 85 215 151 287 47 52 283 555 334

17:00 42 144 136 175 47 50 225 369 190

18:00 0 0 0 0 63 52 63 52 201

19:00 0 0 0 0 58 52 58 52 207

WaktuTotal

ParkirPerkantoran Pertokoan Hotel

Perkantoran 42.250m2 , Pertokoan 30.250m2 , Hotel 16.200m2

TRIP-RATE Analysis TRIP-RATE Analysis [Tamin, Ofyar Z, 2000][Tamin, Ofyar Z, 2000]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00

Waktu

Jum

lah

Ken

dar

aan

(S

MP

)

Masuk Keluar Parkir

Cross-Classification ModelsCross-Classification Models[Papacostas & Prevedouros, 1993][Papacostas & Prevedouros, 1993]

Cross-classification (or category analysis)

models may be thought of as extensions

of the simple trip-rate models.

Although they can be calibrated as area-

or zone-based models, in trip-generation

studies they are almost exclusively used

as disaggregate models.

Number of Trips per Household Size by Auto Ownership obtained from Regional Study

HH Trips HH Trips HH Trips

1 1,200 2,520 2,560 6,144 54 130

2 874 2,098 3,456 9,676 5,921 20,165

3+ 421 1,137 2,589 8,026 8,642 33,704

Auto Ownership

Ho

use

ho

ld S

ize 2+10

Trip Rates obtained from previous Matrix

0 1 2+

1 2.10 2.40 2.41

2 2.40 2.80 3.41

3+ 2.70 3.10 3.90 Ho

use

ho

ld S

ize Auto Ownership

Forecast Number of Household in Study Zone by Auto Ownership and Household Size

0 1 2+

1 25 125 3

2 32 175 254

3+ 10 89 512

Auto OwnershipH

ou

seh

old

Siz

e

Forecast Number of Trips in Zone determined by multiplying Trip Rates by number of

Households in category

0 1 2+

1 53 300 7

2 77 490 865

3+ 27 276 1,997

4,091

Auto Ownership

Ho

use

ho

ld S

ize

TRIP GENERATIONTRIP GENERATION