trends in the california wine business jeff bitter allied grape growers november 5, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, but there are threats to our success:
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, but there are threats to our success:• Dependence on Economy
Industry UpdateHeadline: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® Continues
to Improve24 Jun. 2014
According to Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer confidence continues to advance and the index is now at its highest level since January 2008 (87.3). June’s increase was driven primarily by improving current conditions, particularly consumers’ assessment of business conditions. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and jobs were moderately more favorable, while income expectations were a bit mixed. Still, the momentum going forward remains quite positive.” Source:June 2014 Consumer Confidence Survey®
The Conference Board
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, but there are threats to our success:• Dependence on Economy• Foreign competition
Industry Update
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.0
10.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
Imported Wine - Bottled and Bulk(In Millions of Cases)
Bottled Imports Bulk ImportsData obtained via the Gomberg Fredrikson Report
Total-1%
Total+12%
Total+0%
Total+7%
Total+16%
Total-7%
-5%
+27%
+92%
-2%+7% +3% -2%
+3%
-20%+26%
+71%
-25%
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, but there are threats to our success:• Dependence on Economy• Foreign competition• Categorical competition
Beer Trends from CNBC.comCraft beer production was up 9.6 percent in 2013, while overall beer production fell 1.4 percent, according to Technomic's "2014 Special Trends in Adult Beverage Report: State of the Industry" report. And that continued popularity of specialty beers is paving the way for a new crop of beer makers.
"Over the last couple of years, the number of new brewery openings has been at near unprecedented levels," said Bart Watson, Ph.D., staff economist at Brewers Association, a craft beer industry group. "We're seeing breweries open at about a rate of 1.2 per day.“
Craft breweries have a few things working in their favor, perhaps the most important of which is a customer base that's financially well off. Nielsen reports that 58.9 percent of craft beer drinkers have annual incomes of $75,000 or more.
Gomberg Fredrikson Report2013 Annual Wine Industry
Review• Cider shipments increased by
67% last year!• Moscato (the hottest trend in
the wine business) was only up by 5%.
Gomberg Fredrikson Report2013 Annual Wine Industry
ReviewQuote:“New cider brands, new flavors, and the lower alcohol content of hard cider are attracting new consumers, and especially young women…..it seems likely that the upsurge in cider sales has cannibalized sales of entry level wines….”
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, but there are threats to our success:• Dependence on Economy• Foreign competition• Categorical competition• Costs of business and the
scarcity/price of resources
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, but there are threats to our success:• Dependence on Economy• Foreign competition• Categorical competition• Costs of business and the
scarcity/price of resources• Overproduction
California Acreage Trends
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections
No Growth from the 1980s
Growing Demand; Moderate Expansion
Growing Demand, but
Rapid Expansion
Demand Good, but Acreage Peaks;
Oversupply
Acreage stalls;
Oversupply Chronic
Growing Demand; Moderate Expansion
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections
Growing Demand; Moderate Expansion
Growing Demand; Moderate Expansion
California Acreage Trends
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections
Growing Demand;
Rapid Expansion
California Acreage Trends
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections
THIS
CAUSED
California Acreage Trends
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections
THIS
CAUSEDTHIS
California Acreage Trends
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections
Growing Demand;
Rapid Expansion
Are we Entering a Period of
Rapid Expansion?
California Acreage Trends
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections
Growing Demand;
Rapid Expansion
California Acreage Trends
We know this is coming for 2015 & 2016, but is it rapid
expansion?
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections
Only if we continue the recent planting
trend and/or neglect to remove
vines
California Acreage Trends
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections Moderate
Planting Matches the
TrendModerate Planting Defined:
+/-15,000 NET new acres per year
California Acreage Trends
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, and we do have opportunities before us:• There’s more consumption of
wine today than ever in the U.S.
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, and we do have opportunities before us:• There’s more consumption of
wine today than ever in the U.S.• Millennial generation is
significant.
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, and we do have opportunities before us:• There’s more consumption of
wine today than ever in the U.S.• Millennial generation is
significant.• Plenty of supply in the short term.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Est.
2015Est.
2016Est.
2017Est.
California Wine Shipments and Grape Production (for wine only)2009-2013 with estimates and projections thru 2017
Wine Shipments Grapes Crushed for Wine
2013 Wine Shipments estimated by AGG based on data obtained via theThe Gomberg Fredrikson Report, 01/2014
Millionsof Tons
Industry Update
Industry Update
• The California wine industry remains strong, and we do have opportunities before us:• There’s more consumption of
wine today than ever in the U.S.• Millennial generation is
significant.• Plenty of supply in the short term.• Mid/high price segments are on
fire, experiencing very strong growth.
Industry Update
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3.76
3.143.25
3.06
3.70 3.583.34
4.024.25
3.90
4.33
3.673.49
3.67 3.67
Tons(in Millions)
Statewide Grape Crush 2005-2014 Estimate
Other Crush Winegrape Crush
4.093.98
4.704.39
4.10
Industry Update
What about 2014?• Was this the third large crop in a
row?• How did the market develop?