trends in motorcycle fleet

‘WORKSHOP ON MOTORCYCLING SAFETY’

Trends in Motorcycles Fleet Trends in Motorcycles Fleet Trends in Motorcycles Fleet Trends in Motorcycles Fleet WorldwideWorldwide

Lillehammer June 10, 2008


ContentContent

The Global Two Wheeler IndustryThe Global Two Wheeler IndustryThe Global Two Wheeler IndustryThe Global Two Wheeler Industry

•• Fleet Fleet

•• Production Production

•• Sales Sales

•• Trends in Some RegionsTrends in Some RegionsTrends in Some Regions Trends in Some Regions

The Reasons for GrowthThe Reasons for Growth

22


Fleet: current motorcycle fleet Fleet: current motorcycle fleet

Africa

Middle East1%

Africa1%

North America2%

Latin America5%

Europe14%

Current Parc = 313 million%

Asia = 77%

E rope 14%

Asia77%

Europe = 14%

Latin America = 5%

North America = 2%

Africa = 1%

Middle East = 1%

33

Source: SIAM Estimates


Fleet: motorcycle fleet in AsiaFleet: motorcycle fleet in Asia

120

ons

China India Japan Taiwan

80

100Mill

io China India Japan TaiwanThailand Vietnam Indonesia Rest of Asia

60

80

20

40

-

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

44Source: Honda World Motorcycle Facts & Figures 2007 & SIAM Estimates


Fleet: motorcycles & per capita GDP 2006Fleet: motorcycles & per capita GDP 2006y p py p p

Taiwan550

650

Thailand350

450

000

pers

ons

Malaysia

Vietnam

Indonesia

Italy

Japan150

250

2W p

er '0

GermanySpain Switzerland

USFrance

China

India ColombiaBrazil

-50

50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

55

-50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Per Capita GDP (in '000 $)


Production: top 10 countriesProduction: top 10 countries

Key PlayersKey Players Production (in millions)Production (in millions)All figures in millions for 2006

ChinaChina 20.5420.54

IndiaIndia 8.388.38IndonesiaIndonesia 4.464.46JapanJapan 1.771.77TaiwanTaiwan 1 411 41TaiwanTaiwan 1.411.41BrazilBrazil 1.411.41ThailandThailand 1.331.33VietnamVietnam 0.790.79ItalyItaly 0.700.70MalaysiaMalaysia 0 430 43 41 22

66

MalaysiaMalaysia 0.430.43 41.22


Production: comparison of top players Production: comparison of top players

25Production in million and 10-year average growth rate

20

251996 2001 20068.7%

15

n m

illio

n

11 0% 17.2%

-2.7%

10

in 11.0%

12.1%

-3.7%

4.0%5

4.0% -0.15%

77

0China India Indonesia Japan Brazil Thailand Italy Taiwan

Source: Honda’s 2007 World Motorcycle Facts & Figures


Sales: regional motorcycle trends Sales: regional motorcycle trends

3436

ions

North America Europe Asia Middle East Oceania Africa

262830

32Mill

i

16182022

24

81012

1416

024

68

88Source: SIAM Estimates

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Sales: the main market segments Sales: the main market segments

Types and use vary with markets:Types and use vary with markets:Types and use vary with markets:Types and use vary with markets:•• Developed Countries: Developed Countries:

l i hi ll i hi lleisure vehicle leisure vehicle higher cc motorcycleshigher cc motorcycles

E i & D l i C t iE i & D l i C t i•• Emerging & Developing Countries: Emerging & Developing Countries: means of mobility means of mobility l & di t l & tl & di t l & tlow & medium cc motorcycles & scooterslow & medium cc motorcycles & scooters

99


Sales: trends in US market Sales: trends in US market

1,000

1,200

orcy

cle

200

400

600

800

ated

New

Mot

oSa

les

(000

)

0

200

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2004

Estim

a

30% 30% 30% 30% 28%

15% 16% 15% 17% 21%

60%70%

80%90%

100%

nit S

ales

Touring

Custom

Performance

26% 30% 32% 30% 24%

15% 14% 11% 15% 17%

10%

20%30%

40%50%

% o

f New

Un

Standard

Dual Sport

Scooter

Di t Bik

1010Source: Motorcycle Industry Council (MIC)

0%1996 2000 2002 2004 2006

Dirt Bike


Factors influencing US marketFactors influencing US market

Motorcycles are a “discretional income good” in the USAMotorcycles are a discretional income good in the USA.

Economic growth boosts sales.

B b B th l t l ti (40 60)Baby Boomers are the largest population group (40-60).Have income and time to ride motorcycles, the “born-againbikers”bikers .

Motorcycling is now more accepted as a mode of transport.

Increase in the number of female riders from 2% in 1990 to10% in 2005.

1111


Sales: trends in the Asian marketSales: trends in the Asian market

16

ons

Japan China India Indonesia

12

14

Mill

i Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Rest of Asia

6

8

10

2

4

6

-

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1212

Source: Honda World Motorcycle Facts & Figures 2007 & SIAM Estimates


Sales: trends in JapanSales: trends in Japan

197819786 million units produced6 million units produced6 million units produced6 million units produced•• Less than 50 cc Less than 50 cc 38%38%•• 51 51 -- 125 cc125 cc 42%42%•• Over 250 ccOver 250 cc 13%13%•• Over 250 ccOver 250 cc 13%13%

199419942.72 million units produced2.72 million units produced

L th 50L th 50 32%32%•• Less than 50 cc Less than 50 cc 32%32%•• 51 51 -- 125 cc125 cc 38%38%•• Over 250 ccOver 250 cc 20%20% Increasing

h f 200620061.7 million units produced1.7 million units produced•• Less than 50 ccLess than 50 cc 17%17%

share of over 250 cc

segment

1313

Less than 50 cc Less than 50 cc 17%17%•• 51 51 -- 125 cc125 cc 8%8%•• Over 250 ccOver 250 cc 59%59%


Factors influencing Japanese marketFactors influencing Japanese market

Mature motorcycle marketMature motorcycle market.

Motorcycle sales have been falling since 1982.

Young population is shrinking (smaller potential market).

Alternative lifestyles emerging, reduced interest in MCs.

However, growth in enthusiast market (> 250 cc).

Like Europe shift from utility (mopeds) to leisure (motorcycles)Like Europe, shift from utility (mopeds) to leisure (motorcycles)

Unlike Europe, congestion has not boosted sales

1414


Sales : trends in China Sales : trends in China

Until 1990 (0.89 million)Until 1990 (0.89 million)i•• ‘Less than 125 cc’ was the main ‘Less than 125 cc’ was the main

segment (85%)segment (85%)45% ‘less than 50 cc’45% ‘less than 50 cc’

• Growing Income levels.45% less than 50 cc45% less than 50 cc

2006 (20.5 million)2006 (20.5 million)•• 50% of market ‘125 cc’50% of market ‘125 cc’

• Increased use of two wheelers.

•• emergence of above 250 cc (1%)emergence of above 250 cc (1%)

25

5

10

15

20

od

uct

ion

in m

illio

n

1515

0

5

1990 1998 2006

Pro

Source: Honda World Motorcycle Facts & Figures 2007 & SIAM Estimates


Sales: trends in IndiaSales: trends in India

Second largest market in the worldSecond largest market in the worldgg5 times the size of Indian passenger car market5 times the size of Indian passenger car marketMainlyMainly motorcyclesmotorcycles..19901990 19961996 20062006

1.4 million units 2.9 million units 8.4 million units 1.4 million units 2.9 million units 8.4 million units

5-year CAGR

Scooter15%

Mopeds6%

Scooters 5%Motorcycles 11%

6%

Motorcycles

1616

Mopeds 4%Motorcycles

79%


Factors influencing Indian marketFactors influencing Indian market

Infrastructure development especially in ruralInfrastructure development especially in ruralInfrastructure development, especially in rural Infrastructure development, especially in rural areas areas Increase in disposable incomeIncrease in disposable incomeIncrease in disposable income Increase in disposable income InnovationInnovation-- development and introduction of new development and introduction of new products new technology etcproducts new technology etcproducts, new technology, etc.products, new technology, etc.Product characteristics like greater utility (in Product characteristics like greater utility (in terms of road space parking space low cost ofterms of road space parking space low cost ofterms of road space, parking space, low cost of terms of road space, parking space, low cost of acquisition, etc.) acquisition, etc.) C t l t ti t (MC/1’000 )C t l t ti t (MC/1’000 )

1717

Current low penetration rate (MC/1’000 pop)Current low penetration rate (MC/1’000 pop)


Reasons for GrowthReasons for Growth

11 EaseEase1.1. EaseEase

2.2. Efficiency / EconomyEfficiency / Economyy yy y

3.3. Employment / EntrepreneurshipEmployment / Entrepreneurship

4.4. EnjoymentEnjoyment

1818


EaseEaseEaseEase

Argentina China Cambodia

Africa

1919

Africa

Mexico

India


EaseEaseEaseEase

2020


Efficiency / EconomyEfficiency / EconomyEfficiency / EconomyEfficiency / Economy

JapanManila Thailand

Uganda Spain

2121

Uganda

India

Spain


Efficiency / EconomyEfficiency / EconomyEfficiency / EconomyEfficiency / Economy

Mexico Uganda Police

2222

china iranAfghanistan


Employment / EntrepreneurshipEmployment / EntrepreneurshipEmployment / EntrepreneurshipEmployment / Entrepreneurship

ParisManila Argentina

MexicoIsrael Thailand

2323

Mexico


Employment / EntrepreneurshipEmployment / Entrepreneurshipp y / p pp y / p p

IndonesiaGhana

Cambodia

China Iran

2424


EnjoymentEnjoymentEnjoymentEnjoyment

Africa Japan

USA Italy

2525

Thank you!Thank you!Thank you!Thank you!

trends in motorcycle fleet

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