trends driving traffic growth in asia · 2015-10-02 · market forecast drivers and considerations...

Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.

The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or

guarantee of performance.

John Schubert Managing Director, Marketing

Boeing Commercial Airplanes September 2015

Trends Driving Traffic Growth In Asia


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Current trends in aviation


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Some at record levels

Passenger traffic

growth +6% in 2014

Load factors ~80%

globally

Utilization +15% as compared

to 2003

Parked fleet

steady at ~3% of in-production

Stable values

and lease rates

$20 billion in airline

profits and growing

Demand Fleet Value




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Boeing’s Market Outlook


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Market forecast drivers and considerations

Fuel price

Airline strategies &

business models

Infrastructure Economic

growth

High speed

rail Environment Airplane

capabilities Market

liberalization

Emerging markets

Current Market Outlook

2014-2033


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2015F

World air travel has grown 5% per year since 1980

RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers

Source: ICAO scheduled traffic

RP

Ks

(tr

illi

on

s)

• 4 recessions

• 2 financial crises

• 2 Gulf wars

• 1 oil shock

• 1 near pandemic (SARS)

• 9/11


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0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops Market fragmentation drives growth

• SOURCE: August OAG

• Index 1994=1.00

Frequency Growth Nonstop Markets

Average Airplane Size

Air Travel Growth

Wo

rld


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2014 to 2034

3.1% World

economy (GDP)

4.9% Airline traffic

(RPK)

4.7% Cargo traffic (RTK)

Number of airline

passengers 4.0%


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Region Airplanes

Airplane deliveries: 38,050 2015 - 2034

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Regional jets 7%

Single- aisle 70%

Small wide-body

13%

Large wide-body

1%

Medium wide-body

9%

2,490

26,730

4,770

540 3,520

New airplane deliveries by region 2015 - 2034

38%

19%

8%

8%

3% 3%

21%

38,050

Asia 14,330

North America 7,890

Europe 7,310

Middle East 3,180

Latin America 3,020

Africa 1,170

C.I.S. 1,150

World Total 38,050


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Region Airplanes

Airplane deliveries: $5.6 trillion 2015 - 2034

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Regional jets 2%

Single- aisle 50%

Small wide-body

22%

Large wide-body

4%

Medium wide-body

22%

$100B

$2,770B

$1,250B

$230B

$1,220B

New airplane values by region 2015 - 2034

39%

19%

13%

6% 3%

3%

17%

$5.6T

Asia $2,200B

North America $940B

Europe $1,050B

Middle East $730B

Latin America $350B

Africa $160B

C.I.S. $140B

World Total $5,570B


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Africa

Annual GDP growth, 2014 – 2034

SOURCE: IHS Economics

1.8

4.3

2.4

2.5

3.1

3.8

3.4

4.5

Asia

Europe

CIS

North America

World

Latin America

Middle East


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0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Within Asia*

Within China

Within North America

Within Europe

Middle East - Asia

Europe - Asia

North Atlantic

Within Latin America

Transpacific

Within/to CIS

North America - Latin America

Europe - Latin America

Africa - Europe

RPKs, billions

*Does NOT include travel within China

3.3%

7.2%

6.6%

4.4%

3.9%

4.9%

5.0%

4.4%

5.1%

3.0%

2.4%

6.2%

6.2% 2014 traffic

Added traffic 2015-2034

Annual growth %

World Traffic

Growth: 4.9%


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675

375 375

150

150

65

60 Growth

Replacement

North America Europe

Latin America

Africa

Russia/ Central Asia

Asia-Pacific

Middle East


Southeast Asia will need 3,750 new airplanes valued at $550 billion


Market value: $550B 2015 - 2034

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Regional jets 2%

Single- aisle 76%

Small wide-body

14%

Large wide-body

1%

Medium wide-body

7%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Regional jets <1%

Single- aisle 56%

Small wide-body

25%

Large wide-body

2%

Medium wide-body

16%

90

2,860

510

40 250

<$5B

$310B

$140B

$10B

$90B

due to rounding, market share may not equal 100%


South Asia will need 1,850 new airplanes valued at $250 billion


Market value: $250B 2015 - 2034

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Regional jets 1%

Single- aisle 82%

Small wide-body

8%

Large wide-body

0%

Medium wide-body

9%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Regional jets <1%

Single- aisle 64%

Small wide-body

16%

Large wide-body

0%

Medium wide-body

20%

20

1,520

140 0

170 <$5B

$160B

$40B

$0B

$50B



Oceania will need 950 new airplanes valued at $140 billion

Airplane deliveries: 950 2015 - 2034

Market value: $140B 2015 - 2034

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Regional jets 1%

Single- aisle 77%

Small wide-body

15%

Large wide-body

1%

Medium wide-body

6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Regional jets <1%

Single- aisle 57%

Small wide-body

21%

Large wide-body

7%

Medium wide-body

14%

10

730

140

10 60

<$5B

$80B

$30B

$10B

$20B





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Future airport implications


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+100M per yr

ATL 95M

LHR 70M


Some SE Asian airport congestion today at peak hours

Hourly 2013 Capacity Estimate

Source: Boeing Internal Research

Annual 2013 Capacity Estimate

SYD*

AKL

BKK

SIN

KUL

CGK

MNL

BNE

SGN

PER

MEL*

DMK

SUB

DPS

SYD*

AKL

SIN

KUL

CGK

MNL

BNE

SGN

PER

MEL*

BKK DMK

SUB

DPS

Sufficient capacity

Crowded ( > 85% of Capacity)

Congested ( > 95% of Capacity)

HKG HKG

* Capped Airport

Current congestion levels


Extensive SE Asian airport congestion over next 20 years

2023 Capacity Forecast 2033 Capacity Forecast

SYD*

AKL

SIN

KUL

CGK

MNL

BNE

SGN

PER

MEL*

BKK DMK

SUB

DPS

SYD*

AKL

SIN

KUL

CGK

MNL

BNE

SGN

PER

MEL*

BKK DMK

SUB

DPS

HKG HKG

* Capped Airport

Source: Boeing Internal Research

Airport annual congestion forecast Sufficient capacity

Crowded ( > 85% of Capacity)

Congested ( > 95% of Capacity)


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Airline potential responses to congestion

Use of secondary airports Pricing as a lever

Maximize alliances Aircraft re-gauging (up and down)


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Airports must focus on operational efficiencies

Airspace Design & Integration Airport – Airline Alignment

Passenger and Cargo Operations Airport – New Generation Aircraft


All commercial aerospace constituents:

Investment and policy imperatives

Investment imperatives

Airspace efficiencies

Airport improvements

Runways and taxiways

Ramp area

Terminals

Roads

Construction of new airports

Policy imperatives

Coordination and

collaboration between

constituents

Community engagement

Joint advocacy efforts towards congestion relief remains critical

trends driving traffic growth in asia · 2015-10-02 · market forecast drivers and considerations...

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