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© 2018 IJRAR July 2018, Volume 5, Issue 3 www.ijrar.org (E-ISSN 2348-1269, P- ISSN 2349-5138)

IJRAR1903022 International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews (IJRAR) www.ijrar.org 161

Trends and Patterns of Population Growth in

Pakistan

Muhammad Basit1, Dr. Safdar Ali Shirazi

2, Saba Khan Khurshid

3 Abid Ali

4

1Subject Specialist of Geography, Government Higher Secondary School Gujrat, Dist. Muzaffargarh – Pakistan

2 Associate professor Department of Geography, University of Panjab, Lahore-Pakistan.

3M. Phil Scholar, Department of Sociology, Lahore Leads University -Pakistan

4Subject Specialist of Geography, Government Higher Secondary School Shehar sultan, Dist. Muzaffargarh – Pakistan

Abstract

An increasing trend of Population growth at high rate in Pakistan is creating an alarming situation. From the 1951 Pakistan’s

population growth rate was 1.8%, in the1961 the 2nd

census of Pakistan the growth rate was 2.4%. In 1972, 3rd

census was

conducted in Pakistan; growth rate of population was 3.7%.This is the highest growth rate in the history of Pakistan. The

interesting aspect of the 1972 census is that it was the highest growth rate after separation of East Pakistan. The situation for the

stakeholders was eye opening. After this in 1981 the 4th

census was conducted and growth rate was 3.1, securing 2nd

position in

history, bit low than 1972. There is Gap of conducting census after seventeen years in 1998 having growth rate of 2.7%. In 2017

growth rate of Pakistan is 2.40%. Concluding these entire censuses that Pakistan has no control measures to reduce the explosive

growth rate of Pakistan. It should be very necessary to make laws and implement them. The objective of this study is to show

emerging explosive trends and patterns of population growth in Pakistan.

Keywords: Trends and patterns, population growth, Pakistan, census 2017

1. INTRODUCTION

According to the world revision 2017, population of world is nearly 7.6 billion in 2017.Of which the 60 % is living in Asia, 17 %

is living in Africa, 10% in Europe, 9% in Latin America, and 6% in North America and Oceania.The only two Asian countries

have 37% of the total population of world, China and India (UN, 2017). Population growth is to be considered in some special

area, for a particular time. The growth of population may be positive or negative, due to natural increase or decrease. Growth of

population can be measured in percentage or in absolute numbers (Gosh, 1984). Population growth is calculated by adding the

natural increase to net migration (Khan, 2015). Rapid growth is the main factor for increase in the population to move for

sustainable income, especially the migration for livelihood to urban areas is more concerning in developing countries(Pardhan,

2004). Rapid population growth is expected in Africa till 21stcentury. Population of Africa had the fastest growing region in the

world. Increasing growth rate 2.6 % annually in Africa, from 2010 to 2015, it is expected to decrease in 1.8% 2045-2050, and

continue to fall 0.66 in 2095-2100(U.N, 2017). The south Asia regions including eight countries are exposed to serious problem

of population growth. At mid 2013 South-Asia contained an estimated population 1702.8m, nearly one quarter of an estimated

world population of 7137.0 m. Containing this huge population the region has most populous country India and the country

having least population Maldives. The trend and pattern of the population growth in South -Asia remains unchanged (Dashwarma

G.L., 2018).The issue is much concerning about growth of population and economy, as Malthus, that population has negative

impact on economy, reduction in natural resources, increase gap in poverty and inequality (Bloom & Canning.,2006). The most

populated cities in developing world are facing many problems such as basic needs, health, education, homes and infrastructure.

In South-Asia during the period of 1970-2015, countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh have two aspects, one is

of small and medium size cities which have positive impacts on economy, on the other hand is the large agglomerations have

negative impacts (Deb. S., 2017).

Population growth plays an imperative role in the development. It pressurizes the economy of country at local, regional and global

level. The increasing growth level of population equally has pressure on education, poverty, infrastructure and health. In Pakistan

it is declining persistently. In 2015 it was 1.92%, in 2016 it was 1.89 and in 2017 it was 1.86 %( GOP, 2017).Population growth

has mainly negative impacts on the environment. It is very necessary to control the population explosion. Theories are always out

there but without a practical approach (Ehrlich & Holdren., 2011).

Population is increasing in developed countries at an alarming level, approximately 2% in every year is increasing and this ratio

of an alarming growth shows that population will be doubled in 35 years in developing countries (Samuel & Donaldson.,

1986).There are countries which are controlling their population by family planning and some natural methods, but some

countries, where all these efforts are useless such as Tunisia, Algeria, Bangladesh, Uganda and Pakistan (Bongaarts. J. et al,

.2012).

2.1. Impact of Population Growth A study is conducted to grasp the impacts of population growth on economy, population growth as independent variable and

economic growth is taken as dependent variable. Results show that the population growth has pessimistic impacts on the growth



of economy. Creating many problematic situations such as, unemployment, poverty, health, education and many other basic

necessities of life. The study further suggests controlling the rapid population growth, and on the other hand the study also

suggests about the loopholes of Pakistani government (Ahmad & khalil, 2016). Another study is conducted in Pakistan to know

the impacts of population in Pakistan suggested that rapid population growth creates negative impacts on the economy (Afzal .M.,

2009).A study is conducted on population growth in developing countries ;forty three countries are used as data sample. Finding

the results the least square method is used for analysis. Per capita income is used as dependent variable and population growth as

independent variable. The study concludes that population growth has negative impacts on per capita income in developing

countries (Dao, 2012).

The rapid increase of population in Pakistan is a cause of concern. In future it will portray a formidable threat to the public and

the stakeholders. Due to the advanced technology hybrid varieties are fulfilling the human nutrition. Industries of every type are

expanding to meet the basic needs of overpopulation. But no one is thinking about the rapid inclusion of population growth

(Akbar.K.F. 1992). The main contribution in the population growth is high fertility rate. Demographers try to manage the

phenomena but in 1960s 6 to 7 births were per women. During 1970s and 1980s four different types of surveys were conducted to

more accurate fertility rate. Estimates were about 5.6 per women in population demographic and health survey and 6.8 in 1988 in

population demographic survey (Sathar.Z.A, 2001).

3. Objectives

I. The prime objective of the study is to overview the patterns and trends of population growth in Pakistan from 1951 to

2017.

II. The census of 1998 to 2017 are discussed in detail to overview the trends of population growth at the provinces

III. The trends of population growth in rural and urban areas are discussed 1998-2017.

IV. The current study further suggests some control measures, how to overcome this trend of population growth with

special reference to Pakistan.

4. MATERIALS and METHODS

The study is totally based on the secondary data. Some data is collected through literature review and remaining is from the

census 1951 to 2017.Quantitaive data is to use for support to qualitative data.

4.1. World Population

The projected population of world and regions through medium vibrant projections are showing that population in all regions;

especially in Africa is growing more rapid than any other region of the world. But the region Europe is showing that the declining

trend of population growth.

Figure 1: Population of world and Regions

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, population division (2017).World

Population Prospects: The2017 Revision, New York: United Nations.

World Africa Asia Europe

Latin America and

Caribbean

North Americ

a

Oceania

2050(population in millions) 9772 2528 5257 716 780 435 57



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

POPULATION OF WORLD AND REGIONS



Table 1: Population Growth rate of Pakistan of Pakistan from 1951-2017

Source: Population census of Pakistan, 1998-2017

4.2. Population Growth in Pakistan

Table 1 is showing that population of Pakistan is growing at explosive rate. After partition in 1951 there was 1st census in 1951,

the Growth rate was 1.8%, in 1961 the growth rate was 2.4%, and in1972 the growth rate was very explosive in the history of

Pakistan. While on the 4th

census in 1981 was 3.1% with some minor declination, but was very explosive .After this a census after

seventeen years was conducted in 1998, having population growth 2.7% and the last census is conducted in 2017, in which the

growth rate remains unchanged at 2.40%.These results are horrifying for a country like a Pakistan, as policy makers have no

interest with population bomb.

Figure 2: Trend of Population Growth in Pakistan province since 1951-2017


33.7442.88

65.384.25

131.58

207.77

1.8 2.4 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.40 0 0 0 0 00

50

100

150

200

250

1951 1961 1972 1981 1998 2017

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

CENSUS YEAR

Trend Of Population Growth 1951-2017

Total population (in millions) Average Annual Growth Rate

Linear (Total population (in millions))

Census

Year

Total

population

(in

millions)

Average

Annual

Growth

Rate

Rating of

Growth

Rate

1951 33.74 1.8 Rapid

1961 42.88 2.4 Explosive

1972 65.30 3.7 Explosive

1981 84.25 3.1 Explosive

1998 131.58 2.7 Explosive

2017 207.77 2.40 Explosive



Table 2: Level of Population Growth of Pakistan province wise including Islamabad and F.A.T.A

Region Total

Population

(in

millions)

1998-

2017

Average

Growth

Rate

K.P. K 30.52 2.89

F.A.T. A 5.01 2.41

Punjab 110.01 2.13

Sindh 47.88 2.41

Baluchistan 12.34 3.37

Islamabad 20.06 4.91

Source: Population census of Pakistan, 1998-2017.

4.3. Level of population Growth in 1998-2017

Level of population growth in Pakistan at province level is very alarming. The growth rate in capital is at apex 4.91,from 1998 to

2017,2nd

is Baluchistan 3.37,3rd

is kpk 2.89,4th

is F.A.T.A 2.41,5TH

is Sindh and 6th

is Punjab having growth rate 2.13.The ratio

between the provinces ,F.A.T.A and Islamabad is thought provoking for Pakistan.

Figure 3: Showing the patterns and trends of population growth in Pakistan province wise including F.AT.A and Islamabad since

1998-2017


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

TO

TA

L P

OP

UL

AT

ION

REGIONS

Patterns and Trends of Population Growth in Pakistan Province wise including

F.A.T.A and Islamabad Since 1998-2017

Total Population 1998-2017



Table 3: Population Growth rate Rural and Urban of Pakistan from 1998-2017

Region Urban

Population

(in millions)

19982017Average

Urban Annual

Growth

Rural

population

(in millions)

1998-2017

Rural average

Population

Growth

K.P. K 5.72 2.96 24.79 2.87

F.A.T. A 0.14 2.70 4.85 2.41

Punjab 40.38 2.74 69.62 1.81

Sindh 24.91 2.46 22.97 2.36

Baluchistan 3.40 3.49 8.94 3.33

Islamabad 1.01 3.48 0.99 6.95


Figure 4: Urban and Rural Population growth in Pakistan province wise including F.AT.A and Islamabad, 1998-2017


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

K.P. K F.A.T. A Punjab Sindh Baluchistan Islamabad

Rural and Urban Population Growth in pakistan, 1998-2017

Urban Population (in millions) 19982017Average Urban Annual Growth

Rural population (in millions) 1998-2017 Rural average Population Growth



Figure 5: Trend of population Growth in KPK form 1998-2017


Table 4: Rural and Urban Population Growth of KPK from 1998-2017


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Banu D.I. KHAN Hazara Kohat Mardan Peshawar Malakand

POPULA

TION

REGIONS

Patterns andTrends of Population Growth from 1998-2017 in K.P.K

Total population in 1998 Total population in 2017 1998-2017

Region Urban

Population

(in

millions)

1998-2017

Average Urban

Annual Growth

Rural

populatio

n (in

millions)

1998-2017 Rural

average Population

Growth

Banu 0.13 2.06 1.90 3.07

D.I. KHAN 0.40 2.53 1.60 3.50

Hazara 0.56 3.34 4.76 2.10

Kohat 0.42 2.94 1.79 2.79

Mardan 0.71 2.18 3.28 2.60

Peshawar 2.57 3.25 4.82 3.47

Malakand 0.89 2.96 6.61 3.03



Figure 6: Rural and Urban population Growth in KPK form 1998-2017


Figure 7: Showing the patterns and trends of population growth in F.AT.A, 1998-2017


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Banu D.I. KHAN Hazara Kohat Mardan Peshawar Malakand

Rural and Urban population Growth of KPK, 1998-2017

Urban Population (in millions) 1998-2017 Average Urban Annual Growth


012345678

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

REGION

Patterns and Trends of population Growth in F.A.T.A from 1998-2017

Total population in 1998 Total population in 2017

1998-2017 Linear (1998-2017)



Table 5: Rural and Urban Population Growth of F.A.T.A from 1998-2017


Region Urban

Population

(in

millions)

1998-

2017

Average

Urban

Annual

Growth

Rural

population

(in

millions)

1998-2017

Rural

average

Population

Growth

Khyber

Agency

0.09 3.12 0.88 3.15

Kurram

Agency

0.03 2.47 0.57 1.67

Mohmand

Agency

- - 0.48 1.77

Waziristan

Agency

0.04 -1.63 0.53 2.21

Orakzai

Agency

- - 0.25 0.64

Waziristan

Agency

- - 0.67 2.43

Bajjaur

agency

- - 1.09 4.23

F.R.D.I.

Khan

- - 0.068 3.01

F.R. Kohat - - 0.11 1.55

F.R. Lucky

Murawat

- - 0.026 7.22

F.R.

Peshawar

- - 0.064 0.97

F.R. Tank - - 0.027 1.54



Figure 8: Urban and Rural population growth in F.AT.A, 1998-2017


4.4. Level of Growth in F.A.T.A

In F.A.T.A, the growth rate of population is also an increasing trend. Only the North Waziristan agency has low urban growth

than rural, due to the operation of army against militant groups. This is the only area in Pakistan that has negative growth rate.

Figure9: Trend of population growth in Punjab, 1998-2017


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Urban and Rural Trend of Population Growth in F.A.T.A 1998-2017



0

5

10

15

20

25

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

REGIONS

Trend of Population Growth in Punjab From, 1998-2017

Total population in 1998 Total population in 2017 1998-2017 Linear (1998-2017)



Table 6: Rural and Urban Population Growth of Punjab from 1998-2017

Region Urban

Population

(in millions)

1998-

2017

Average

Urban

Annual

Growth

Rural

population

(in millions)

1998-2017

Rural average

Population

Growth

Rawalpindi 6.00 2.22 10.00 2.13

Sargodha 2.00 2.05 6.14 1.90

Gujranwala 5.90 2.27 10.21 1.58

Lahore 13.46 3.77 5.93 0.53

Sahiwal 5.22 2.14 8.95 1.57

Bahawalpur 2.82 2.48 8.63 2.06

D.G. Khan 1.90 2.01 2.01 1.97

Faisalabad 5.22 2.40 2.40 1.65

Multan 3.39 2.95 2.95 2.78


Figure 10: Urban and Rural population growth in Punjab, 1998-2017


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Rawalpindi Sargodha Gujranwala Lahore Sahiwal Bahawalpur D.G. Khan Faisalabad Multan

Urban and Rural population Growth In Punjab,1998-2017





Figure 11: Trend of population growth in Sindh, 1998-2017


Table 7: Urban and Rural Population Growth of Sindh from 1998-2017

Region Urban

Population

(in millions)

1998-

2017Average

Urban Annual

Growth

Rural

population

(in millions)

1998-2017

Rural

average

Population

Growth

Larkana 1.95 2.55 4.23 1.83

Sukkur 1.19 2.48 2.25 2.54

Hyderabad 3.88 2.59 6.70 2.19

Karachi 14.91 2.43 1.14 5.56

Mirpur khas 0.80 2.53 3.42 2.64

Shaheed

Benazir Abad

1.45 2.23 3.82 2.15


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Larkana Sukkur Hyderabad Karachi Mirpur khas Shaheed Benazir Abad

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

REGIONS

Trend of Population Growth in Sindh,1998-2017


1998-2017 Linear (1998-2017)



Figure 11: Urban and Rural population growth in Sindh, 1998-2017


Figure 12: Trend of population Growth in Baluchistan, 1998-2017


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Larkana Sukkur Hyderabad Karachi Mirpur khas Shaheed Benazir Abad

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

REGIONS

Urban and Rural growth of Sindh,1998-2017



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Kalat Makran Nasir Abd Quetta Sibi Zhob

Trend of Population Growth in Balochistan From 1998-2017


1998-2017 Linear (1998-2017)



Table 8: Urban and Rural Population Growth of Baluchistan from 1998-2017

Region Urban

Population

1998-

2017

Urban

Average

Annual

Growth

Rural

population

1998-2017

Rural

average

Population

Growth

Kalat 0.76 3.69 1.74 2.65

Makran 0.54 4.25 0.94 2.54

Nasir Abad 0.30 3.55 1.28 2.32

Quetta 1.35 3.35 2.81 5.66

Sibi 0.22 2.90 0.81 2.58

Zhob 0.20 2.46 1.34 2.70


Figure 12: Urban and Rural population growth in Baluchistan, 1998-2017


5. CONCLUSION

Population of Pakistan is increasing day by day. Due to this alarming increase of population, Pakistan is facing lots of problems.

Pakistan is facing environmental hazard, mismanagement, gender inequality, poverty, unemployment and climatic issues, to list a

few. In 1951 the growth rate of population was 1.8%, which was very unusually rapid. This was the 1st census of Pakistan after

partition. In 1961 the growth rate of population was 2.4% .The3rd

census was conducted in 1972 and growth rate of Pakistan was

3.7%, which was ever high in the history of Pakistan. The curiosity of this census was much sensitive as the 3.7% growth rate was

highest after the separation of East and West Pakistan. In 1981 the growth rate was bit low 3.1% as compare to 3.7% in 1972.

Then due to political instability, there was a gap of seventeen years, and census was conducted in 1998, having growth rate of

2.7%.The next census, and the latest, was conducted in 2017, in which the growth rate remain high 2.40% comparatively low than

1998 census.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Kalat Makran Nasir Abd Quetta Sibi

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

Zhob

Rural and Urban Population Growth in Balochistan From 1998-2017

Urban Population 1998-2017 Urban Average Annual Growth

Rural population 1998-2017 Rural average Population Growth



The trend of population growth in Pakistan is imbalanced since inception of Pakistan. The fluctuated trend of growth rate

throughout the history of Pakistan is showing that the policy makers have no concern about this population explosion. With this

rapid growth of population the environmental, climatic, social, economical, educational, infrastructural, health, finance and much

more issues are generating due to this threshold of population. Population growth is the only leading problem of Pakistan. This is

global, regional and local phenomena, which is affecting every aspect of life. Pakistan recently is facing the 3rd

most drought

affected country in the world, the reason is the pattern of water consumption and wastage of water. So, to save the water, control

the population is wise for nation.

There are some suggestions about to control the population growth in Pakistan, as Pakistan is 6th

most populous country in the

world. To control population growth government should follow the policies of china. Although china has some negative impact

on economy of its long-lasting policies, but should adopt it for half century. Stakeholders and the policymakers should make laws

and strictly implement on the each and every type of society. In Pakistan it is very necessary to control the population by family

planning. Family planning can boost the economy of Pakistan somehow. There should make possibilities of seminars on the

elderly marriages, this may be very beneficial. Strict laws should be implementing on the Nikha before eighteen years marriage.

Special training should be compulsory for the newly married couple about family planning. In every type of education there

should be a compulsory topics related to problems after early marriage. The religious scholars, stakeholders in a religious country

like Pakistan, have to use their influence in society by convincing them. The main duty of the researchers has to pay their

attention not only local but international level to present their work and find out other ways to control the population growth rate.

6. REFERENCES

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and economics.5 (3), 162-176.

[3]Akbar.K.F. (992), „Family planning and Islam: “A review” in Hamdard Islamic vol. xvii.No:03.

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[18]www.fianace.gov.pk>12_pk

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