trends and directions in mobile and wireless · 2009. 2010-2012. 2015-2020. device centric....
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Trends and Directions in Mobile and Wireless
Leif-Olof Wallin
2010 - An Unsettled Mobile Year
EcosystemsPlatform wars
App store competition, and the fight for
developers & content
EcosystemsPlatform wars
App store competition, and the fight for
developers & content
Vendors & operatorsMake or break strategies in 2010 & 2011
Business models evolve
Vendors & operatorsMake or break strategies in 2010 & 2011
Business models evolve
Clouds & ServicesService innovation
Context
New mobile business models, e.g. advertising
Clouds & ServicesService innovation
Context
New mobile business models, e.g. advertising
DevicesSmartphones rule the (developed) world
New devices raise the bar for smartphones
DevicesSmartphones rule the (developed) world
New devices raise the bar for smartphones
Key Issues
1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014?
2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?
Key Issues
1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014?
2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?
Cellular Network Opportunities & Challenges
HSPA LTEPeak theoretical data rates
Downlink Uplink
1Gbps
100 Mbps
10 Mbps
1 Mbps
100 Kbps
LTE-A
4 bn
3 bn
2 bn
1 bn
02010 2011 2012 2013
GSM
WCDMA & HSPA
CDMA & EV-DOLTE
Cellular subscribers by technology
• Clear technical roadmap to 4G, but many paths to get there• Data demand is exploding, providing the capacity is possible but expensive• Network performance has become a competitive issue• Several generations of network will co-exist in most regions
Smartphones Will Dominate Mature Market Mobility
JapanWEU
LATAM
NA
MEAEEU
APAC
2010 2011 2012 20130%
50%
100%
Device Shipments 2010 - 2013 Smartphones as %ge handsets shipped
2010 2011 2012 2013
0.5 bn
1.0 bn
1.5 bn
2.0 bn
2.5 bn
Basic phonesBasic phones
Enhanced phonesEnhanced phones 11
SmartphonesSmartphones 11
Mobile PCsMobile PCs
(1) Cellular MIDs are included in both the smartphone and enhanced phone categories
Handset Platforms No-one Can Afford to Slip Up
50%
0%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013
Mobile Platform Market Share Symbian holds the lead, dominated by Nokia despite open source
Android gains share and appears on more devices such as netbooks, e- books and non-phone MIDs
iPhone shipments grow but share changes little as the market expands
RIM loses share to more consumer- oriented platforms & ecosystems
Windows Mobile. Complex microsoft strategy, includes WM7, WM6.x, Pink.
Maemo / Meego replaces Symbian in high-end Nokia devices
Others including Linux, webOS, LIMO remain niche platforms
Mobile Device Trends 2010 - 2013
TransportableTransportable
PortablePortable
PocketablePocketable
PersonalPersonal
ImplantedImplanted
Form factors Features / Technology
• More device types in addition to laptops & smartphones
• Viability of non- pocketable MIDs, the new 0.5 Kg wasteland?
• 8” to 10” screen is the minimum for Windows 7
• Trend towards thinner devices
• GPS in > 90% and WiFi in > 70% smartphones shipped in 2013
• OLED screens allow thinner devices and better battery life
• E-compass complements GPS in high-end devices
• More multi-touch on PCs (Windows 7) and handsets
• Growing interest in wireless charging and novel power sources
• Under 2% of all handsets will support WiMax by 2013
Flexibility
Portability
Mobile Technologies On Your Radar Screen
Bluetooth 3
Bluetooth LE
Mobile Web
LTE
App Stores
Touch interfaces
ContextNear Field Wireless
Location awareness &
augmented reality
M2M & embedded
wireless
Advanced mobile UIs
Pico projectors
Mobile HTML 5 Widgets
2010 - 20122011 - 2015 2011 - 2015
Multicore handsets
Flexible displays
Wireless broadband
802.11n
Platform independent mobile AD
Agents
The Emergence of Contextual Mobility
2009 2010-2012 2015-2020
Device centricPresence, PIM
Device centricLocation, Identity, Simple behavior and habits, Location-aware social networks Simple proactive alerts
People centricSensors, bio sensors Adjacent devices and people, Complex anticipatory behavior, Complex federated services, Contextual social networking
Pre-context Simple single-vendor systems and walled gardens
Open systems and federations
Key Issues
1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014?
2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?
Mobile Collaboration 2010-2012
Communication
CoordinationCommunities
Social Interaction
Voice
Messaging such as SMS, mobile e-mail,
MMS
Mobile PIM
Shared information
Mobile portals
Mobile social
networking
Informal voice, messaging etc.
Image and video
sharing
Mobile presence and IM
Moblogs
Location tracking
Interest sharing
Video
Mobile microblogging
Shared documents & portals
Mobile social networking
Collaboration
“Bring Your Own” Mobility Employee-Owned Mobile Devices
No idea of the scope of the
issue
Ban them
Tolerance and policies
Formalise employee ownership
• Risks & unknown benefits
• Survey in US, UK and Germany: 43% orgs. banned employee-owned PCs.
• Limits risk, but no benefit
• Security issues of uncontrolled devices• Stipends and taxation issues• Who provides support?• How to encourage standards?• Is there a business case? If so what?• Who should not buy their own devices?• Controlled choice and managed diversity,
e.g. “platform”, “appliance” and “concierge”• Corporate cellular contracts on employee-
owned devices• Potential benefits: economic + employee
satisfaction
Ignorance
Prevention
Permission
Exploitation
Make Employee-Owned Devices Safe(r)
Thin-client architectures
HTML, Ajax architecture
Citrix-like solutions
Applications as a service
Portable personality
Network access control
Security as a service
Virtualization
Trust the user
Non-PCNetwork
Applications
PC
More LessPotential for addressing security challenges
A New Enterprise Mobile Landscape Will Emerge From Consumer Vendors
Mobile ecosystem and app. storeOwns social networking
Communications services (such as voice, IM, video, e-mail)Emerging market mobile services
Mobile consumer cloud services and context
Social network with mobile extension APIs
Applications & media, MobileMe, conferencing
Growing Ovi services and app store
Enterprise collaboration, UC, OneApp e-mail/IM
Android/Chrome platform, Web services, Wave
Strong Moderate WeakStrong Moderate Weak
E-mail, IM, widget gallery, mobile search
M2M & Intelligent Machines Unlock New Business Opportunities
Leading Applications 2010
Future Opportunities
Service & Contract Options
• Convert products into services• Information stream products, e.g. e-books• Smart connected products• “Green” products
• AMR & “smart grid”• Security / surveillance• Automotive• Vending & POS• Remote monitoring • Track & trace, geo-fencing • Other, e.g. signage
• Service providers include:
- M2M specialists, e.g. Wyless - Network operators, e.g. Orange, AT&T - Alliances
• Contract options include: - In-country (the majority) - Multinational for small data volumes - Bundled into consumer electronics price
What value will each customer platform deliver?
What value will each customer platform deliver?
Value Based Mobile Business Strategy
What are your business goals & metrics?
Who are the customers?
Where are the customers, what’s their context?
What are your business goals & metrics?
Who are the customers?
Where are the customers, what’s their context?
What will be the most profitable platform & technology mix? e.g. native vs mobile web vs SMS vs other
What will be the most profitable platform & technology mix? e.g. native vs mobile web vs SMS vs other
Which devices and habits do your customers have? Which devices and habits do your customers have?
Non-smartphones 75%RIM 10%iPhone 6%Other smartphones 4%Android 3%Microsoft 2% (illustration, not representative of any specific customer set)
Non-smartphones 75%RIM 10%iPhone 6%Other smartphones 4%Android 3%Microsoft 2% (illustration, not representative of any specific customer set)
The Increasingly Complex Mobile AD Portfolio
Messaging tools & services e.g. Sybase365, Mblox
Messaging tools & services e.g. Sybase365, Mblox
Native tools e.g. Apple, Microsoft Native tools e.g. Apple, Microsoft
Dynamic web adaptation e.g. Infogin, Netbiscuits Dynamic web adaptation e.g. Infogin, Netbiscuits
Native tools + middleware e.g. Microsoft, RIM
Native tools + middleware e.g. Microsoft, RIM
Cross platform tools e.g. Qt, Appcelerator, Java Cross platform tools e.g. Qt, Appcelerator, Java
Classic MEAP tools e.g. Antenna, Syclo, Sybase, Spring
Classic MEAP tools e.g. Antenna, Syclo, Sybase, Spring
HTML5 and pre-HTML5 tools e.g. Gears
HTML5 and pre-HTML5 tools e.g. Gears
Web oriented rich application tools e.g. Air, Flash, Silverlight
Web oriented rich application tools e.g. Air, Flash, Silverlight
Supporting tools, e.g. MDM
Supporting tools, e.g. MDM
HTML & widget tools e.g. Dreamweaver HTML & widget tools e.g. Dreamweaver
MEAPMEAP WebWeb
MCAPMCAP Packaged mobile app. toolsPackaged mobile app. tools
e.g. Blue dot, Cognito, Vaultus, ...
e.g. Appbreeder, Appcelerator, BuildAnApp, Modomodo, Rhomobile.....
Niche tools and emerging business models such as hosted AD Niche tools and emerging business models such as hosted AD
Business Imperative Action Plan Today
• Expect that every worker IT supports will become more mobile
• Define strategies to secure employee-owned devices and appliance mode devices which have access to corporate information
During the Next 12 Months• Mobile communication, collaboration and social networking will become a
corporate need and a vendor battleground. Define a strategy
• New devices and app. stores will drive an explosion in consumer mobile applications on all platforms, some of these will enter the enterprise
• Explore platform-independent application development tools to provide some insulation from the platform wars
• Select B2C mobile strategies and technologies based on customer value, not platform hype
Long Term• Pilot tools and applications that exploit context
Related Research • Mobile Architectures, 2009 Through 2012: A Trend Toward Thin
Nick Jones and Bill Clark, (G00166465)• Gartner’s View of Enterprise Mobility
Leif-Olof Wallin, (G00149888)• What the CIO Needs to Know About Mobile-App Stores and
Ecosystems Nick Jones, (G00169623)
• Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies, 2009 Various authors, (G00169659)
• Toolkit: Mobile and Remote Working is a Key Initiative for Leaders in Infrastructure and Operations Leif-Olof Wallin, Robin Simpson, (G00164971)
• How to Score, Compare and Prioritise Mobile Projects Based on Business Value Robin Simpson, Audrey Apfel, (G00162247)