trend course lesson 3: subscription trend case study

SUBSCRIPTION/// TREND CASE STUDY ///

www.semiosearch.lt/trainingPART 3 of TREND TRAINING COURSE

TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK

INNOVATION LANDSCAPE

MACRO-DIMENSIONS

FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL

Innovation landscape encompasses business and organizational innovations that can appear in the form of start-ups, new features, models of operations or value creation

the dimensions that have influence on our everyday lives: culture, lifestyle, consumption, environment, governance, organization, technology, community, demographics or education

behaviors and needsbeliefs and values

the underlying ideological system/s where every phenomenon is marked by evaluation

the expression of the underlying ideological system – through stories, conversations, actions, choices and needs

SUBSCRIPTIONMODELS

-content-

-sampling and curation-

-product supply-

MODELS

The oldest form of subscriptions – content.

Now this is not only news media, but also books,

music, video games and video content.

Subscription for a consumable or short-life product that needs to be replenished pretty often

Subscription as a curated range of products or

samples distributed to subscribers

-content-

-sampling and curation-

-product supply-

MODELS

The oldest form of subscriptions – content.

Now this is not only news media, but also books,

music, video games and video content.

Subscription for a consumable or short-life product that needs to be replenished pretty often

Subscription as a curated range of products or

samples distributed to subscribers

-product as service-

With most software providers moving onto subscription models,

other unrelated categories will also turn their

offerings into service

SOFTWARE SERVICES

CONTENT SERVICES

OTHERCATEGORIES

The default state of the subscription model

The mainstream thinking behind new application and

software development

Traditional categories entering the subscription

business

AREAS OF APPLICATION

SOFTWARE SERVICES

CONTENT SERVICES

OTHERCATEGORIES

The default state of the subscription model

The mainstream thinking behind new application and

software development

Traditional categories entering the subscription

business

AREAS OF APPLICATION

This is the area where interesting things are happening and one that

is worth exploring further

PRODUCT AS A SERVICE

-INNOVATION AREA #1 -

https://www.birchbox.com/

https://barkbox.com/

https://clubw.com/

Some of the categories (like food and healthy living) are becoming more sophisticated with subscription service coming as a means to achieving specific goals, i.e. losing weight.

HYBRID SERVICE

https://www.dietchef.co.uk/

The subscription services are expanding even to the categories that were once considered infrequent purchase destinations. The product is de-emphasized – combination of products is stressed.

TRADITIONAL CATEGORIES, NEW WAYS OF DELIVERY

SUBSCRIPTIONAS CURATION

-INNOVATION AREA #2-

https://one.mistobox.com/

https://clubw.com/

https://www.carnivoreclub.co/

The subscription services rely on the ability of the provider to select, try out, suggest and deliver new and exciting products. Trust in the curator results in a business result.

SERVICE SUCCESS EQUALS CURATORS REPUTATION

SUBSCRIBED PERSONALIZATION

-INNOVATION AREA #3 -

http://www.teabox.com http://justtherightbook.com/ https://www.bombfell.com/

The other emergent factor for subscription model is the level and accuracy of personalization. The main pay-off for the consumer is „the number of new things I can discover that will adhere to my taste and preferences“.

SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE IS ABOUT ME

CHANGES IN OUR EVERYDAY LIVES

-cheap delivery infrastructure

-internet usage

-cloud services

Deliveries and logistics have evolved in giant leaps – everything can be delivered to most places within realistic time-scales and without breaking a sweat. Delivery infrastructure becomes available even to small business owners.

Internet and mobile usage is peaking, the scale of e-service is increasing even in countries where the number of internet user has already reached it peak. DATA is the most essential metric.

We are relying more and more on cloud services and they are becoming both the storage points and service/application points for most of the things we do.

RELATEDTRENDS

NOMADIC LIFESTYLES

DECLUTTERED LIVING

We tend to surround ourselves with abundance of stuff and things. But eventually they pile-up, require additional attention and slow us down. The declutter trend is about simplifying our lives by getting rid of the unnecessary and unessential things; it manifests itself in interior design, consumption and organizational habits and ideologies.

We are leading nomadic lifestyles in terms of where we live, where we work and where we

socialize. These places are no longer tied together and we are not stuck with them for such

long periods of time as we used to be.

BEHAVIOR AND NEEDS

-organizational needs

-innovation needs

-discovery needs

people are constantly short on time, so it is only natural that they require brands and businesses to help with the following aspects: save time, develop good habits and help organize everyday life.

we get bored quickly - discovering new things keeps us engaged. It is also about things that matter specifically to us.

people evaluate brands and businesses by how much those brands and businesses are able to improve, innovate and move forward. We pay more attention to things that evolve and quickly forget the ones that don’t.

-organizational needs-innovation needs-discovery needs

THE MATCHIt is evident that most of the subscription services serve basic

consumer needs – there is a direct match between the offerings and underlying consumer needs.

-service-curation and

personalization

VALUES AND BELIEFS

ATTITUDE TOWARDS CONSUMPTION

PRODUCT AS EXPERIENCE

PRODUCT AS OWNERSHIP

product that holds symbolic value and has value in itself and in prolonged ownership. The tie that we have with it is important.

product is disposable and continuous – only this

continuity helps to establish a particular experience

-singular -maintained-claimed and owned

-continuous-disposable-experiential

if products have always had symbolic value, only subscription services will

truly be a part of a lifestyle status

VALUE MODEL #1

subscription model is a promise of an everlasting

improvement

VALUE MODEL #2

THE FUTURE OF THE SUBSCRIPTION MODEL

the proliferation of subscription services

the saturationof subscriptionservices

CRITICAL MOMENTSIN TREND DEVELOPMENT

subscription services becoming acceptably mainstream


THE PRODUCT-SERVICE SYNTHESIS

This phase means that even categories that have no relation to traditional subscription categories

will move into the same model, e. g. think of restaurants, barber shops, education services offering subscription model for their product


LONG-TAIL SUBSCRIPTIONS

MASS BRANDSUBSCRIPTIONS

Even though subscription services have been about long-tail subscriptions (products and services that cater for niche needs and audiences), big brands are going to move there as well to

leverage their existing touch-points, brand presence and infrastructure





Transition from mainstream to saturation is going to pick up a few innovations as well –

and this is mostly going to be about evolution of subscription formats

ON THE WAY




1.MICRO-SUBSCRIPTIONSSubscriptions will move into micro-

subscription field – just like MEDIA OUTLETS are asking you to pay 1 $ per week to view the site without ads. This will spread with

small subscription services emerging everywhere and even accompanying

traditional paid products as an additional value tier.

2. SMART SUBSCRIPTIONSSubscription services will gather more and more data about the consumer – but this

time around this data will have to be used for direct consumer’s benefit: better product development, better selection and range.

This evolutionary factor will determine dead-end services and the ones that are worth

long-term investment.




This is where it will get the most interesting as people will start noticing that they have

too many subscriptions at the same time and they are starting to weigh down on their finances. This is going to be the sobering

moment for the whole subscription industry. It is also going to be a serious incentive for

further developments

BREAK-DOWN POINT




1. FLEXIBLE SUBSCRIPTIONSThe providers will have to realize that in

order to get their customers back they need to provide simple options for suspending and

activating accounts.

2. SUBSCRIPTION SHARINGFinancial situation will finally spawn this

monster – by sharing we will be able to get the most out of joint accounts and spend less

on everything.

3. MINDFUL SUBSCRIBINGAt some point we will start looking over our

shoulder and wondering whether actually owning something wasn’t such a bad idea

after all and how to get rid of this constant access to everything.

FLEXIBLE SUBSCRIPTIONSThe providers will have to realize that in

order to get their customers back they need to provide simple options for suspending and

activating accounts.

SUBSCRIPTION SHARINGFinancial situation will finally spawn this

monster – by sharing we will be able to get the most out of joint accounts and spend less

on everything.

MINDFUL SUBSCRIBINGAt some point we will start looking over our

shoulder and wondering whether actually owning something wasn’t such a bad idea

after all and how to get rid of this constant access to everything.

These trends will disrupt the subscription market and place value on traditional buying and owning (again)

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trend course lesson 3: subscription trend case study

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