treasurer’s national press club address 11 may 2005
TRANSCRIPT
Treasurer’s National Press Club Address
11 May 2005
Underlying cash balance
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Ou
tco
me
s
Est
ima
tes
Pro
ject
ion
s
Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP
Budget balances in OECD and Australia
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
OECD Australia
Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP
Net debt and net interest payments
0
5
10
15
20
1980-81 1984-85 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Net debt (LHS) Net interest payments (RHS)
Est
ima
tes
Ou
tco
me
s
Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP
$5.7 billion of interest savings
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1996-97
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Hospitals& schools
Assistanceto families
with children
Assistanceto families
with children
Hospitals& schools
Public debt interest
2005-06
Public debtinterest
$billion $billion
Future Fund
0
40
80
120
160
2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20
0
40
80
120
160
Target for Future Fund Assets Unfunded Liability
$billion $billion
Unemployment rate
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12Per cent Per cent
Fo
reca
sts
Inflation
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Target band
Per cent Per cent
Fo
reca
sts
2004-05 Tax scale
Income range($)
Tax rate%
0 – 6,000 0
6,001 – 21,600 17
21,601 – 58,000 30
58,001 – 70,000 42
70,000 + 47
2005-06 Tax scale
Income range($)
Tax rate%
0 – 6,000 0
6,001 – 21,600 15
21,601 – 63,000 30
63,001 – 95,000 42
95,001 + 47
2006-07 Tax scale
Income range($)
Tax rate%
0 – 6,000 0
6,001 – 21,600 15
21,601 – 70,000 30
70,001 – 125,000 42
125,001 + 47
Personal income tax scales
Tax savings by income level
0
5
10
15
20
10,000 30,000 50,000 70,000 90,000 110,000 130,000 150,000
05001,000
1,5002,0002,5003,0003,500
4,0004,5005,000
Tax savings - $ per year (RHS) Tax savings - percentage reduction (LHS)
Taxpayer's annual income ($)
Tax cut per year (% of tax paid) Tax cut per year ($)
Increasing Australia’s international competitiveness
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Slo
vak
Re
p
De
nm
ark
Ire
lan
d
Be
lgiu
m
Hu
ng
ary
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Au
stra
lia NZ
Ice
lan
d
Ne
the
rlan
ds
Ge
rma
ny
UK
Sw
ed
en
Me
xico
Cze
ch R
ep
Fin
lan
d
Au
stra
lia
Gre
ece
Ca
na
da
Au
stria
No
rwa
y
Sp
ain
Ita
ly
Fra
nce
Po
lan
d
Sw
itze
rlan
d
Ko
rea
Jap
an
Po
rtu
ga
l
US
A
Tu
rke
y
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Australia (1 July 2006)Australia (now)
Top threshold, multiple of the average production wage (bars) Top rate, per cent (dots)
Top rate
Top threshold
Personal tax cuts over time
0
10
20
30
40
50
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Income ($'000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
TNTS tax cuts 2003-04 tax cuts 2004-05 tax cuts 2005-06 tax cuts 2006-07 tax cuts
Per cent reduction Per cent reduction
Income support recipients
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Newstart Allowance
Payment recipients ('000s)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Parenting Payment (Single)
Disability Support Pension
Payment recipients ('000s)
Elements of Welfare to Work reform
Employer Demand Obligations
Services
Payments
Compliance
Spending to help people into work
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800$million $million
Child care places
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1996 2006 2008
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Family day care Outside school hours care
Places Places