transvision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

109
TransVision review Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com The social angle to technology & transhumanism David Wood @dw2

Upload: deltawisdom

Post on 06-Jul-2015

389 views

Category:

Technology


1 download

DESCRIPTION

Presentation made by David Wood at London Futurists, 6th Dec 2014: "TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism"

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

TransVision review

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

The social angle to technology & transhumanism

David Wood @dw2

Page 2: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 2

https://funnytimes.com/19990203/

Page 3: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 3

Self-directed human evolution?

https://web.archive.org/web/19990117003554/http://www.transcedo.org/

Page 4: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 4

http://www.thenanoage.com/

Self-directed human evolution?

Page 5: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 5

Self-directed human evolution?

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=363390110431587

Page 6: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 6

http://humanityplus.org/philosophy/transhumanist-faq/

Transhumanism is a way of thinking about the future that is based on the premise that the human species in its current form

does not represent the end of our development but rather a comparatively early phase.

What is transhumanism?

Page 7: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 7

http://humanityplus.org/philosophy/transhumanist-faq/

Transhumanism is a way of thinking about the future that is based on the premise that the human species in its current form

does not represent the end of our development but rather a comparatively early phase.

“Transhumanism is a class of philosophies of life that seek the continuation and acceleration of the

evolution of intelligent life beyond its currently human form and human limitations

by means of science and technology, guided by life-promoting principles and values.”

– Max More 1990

What is transhumanism?

Page 8: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 8

4 criticisms of transhumanism 1. Humanity already is in a final (desirable) state

– Humanity is already “created in the image of God” – Secular version: prefer simpler, more sustainable existence

2. Significant human enhancement is too far into the future – Transhumanism is a distraction from more pressing concerns

3. Attempts to enhance humans will likely go badly wrong – People will end up crueller rather than kinder – Or society will end up damaged or diminished in various ways

4. “Transhumanism” as a concept is unnecessarily scary – Prefer “Technology can significantly enhance human happiness” – To “Technology can significant enhance human nature”

Page 9: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

TransVision review

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

The social angle to technology & transhumanism

David Wood @dw2

Page 10: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 10

« Le transhumanisme face à la question sociale »

Paris, 20-22 November 2014

http://transvision2014.org/

Lead Organiser Marc Roux

20+ articles already published or broadcast. Front page of Metro News, articles in Le

Figaro, Les Echos, etc., and France Info radio). 5 film crews were present (for France 2, Arte,

Canal + ...) – documentaries expected

Page 11: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 11

http://www.metronews.fr/info/les-transhumanistes-veulent-sortir-de-l-ombre-avec-le-colloque-transvision/mnks!6IuLt1x9vUpbE/

http://www.01net.com/editorial/634051/natasha-vita-more-un-jour-nous-aurons-un-corps-alternatif/

Page 12: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 12

http://transhumanism.org/tv/tv98/index.htm

Garret Smith, UK talking about cryonics

Nick Bostrom talking about the World Transhumanist Association

Anders Sandberg, Aleph, Sweden: “This is the start of something great”

Weesp, The Netherlands 5-7 July 1998

Lead Organiser Berrie Staring

Page 13: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 13

Stockholm, 5-6 June 1999

http://transhumanism.org/tv/tv99/index.htm

"Who do you want to be tomorrow?"

Lead Organiser Anders Sandberg

Press liaison Waldemar Ingdahl

Page 14: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 14

UCL, London, 15-16 July 2000

http://transhumanism.org/tv/tv2000/index.htm

TransVision is an annual gathering of (mainly) European transhumanists and other people who are interested in how contemporary &

future technological developments could best be used to overcome the

biological limitations of the human condition (including death, disease and unhappiness)

Not just the potential benefits of scientific progress will be discussed, though,

but also the very significant dangers of war or accidents with advanced technologies

Lead Organiser Garret Smith

TransVision MM

Page 15: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 15

TransVision history • Weesp, The Netherlands 5-7 July 1998 • Stockholm, Sweden, 5-6 June 1999 • London, UK, 15-16 July 2000 • Berlin, Germany, 22-24 June 2001 • Yale, New Haven, CT USA, 27-29 June 2003 • Toronto, Canada, 5-8 August 2004 • Caracas, Venezuela, 22-24 July 2005 • Helsinki, Finland, 17-19 August 2006 • Chicago, USA, July 2007 • Milan, Italy, 22-24 October 2010 • Paris, France, 20-22 November 2014

Extropy events, California, 1994-2005

Humanity+ conferences, Worldwide, ongoing

Singularity Summits, Worldwide, ongoing

http://www.extropy.org/events.htm http://transhumanismi.org/tv06/

Page 16: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

TransVision review

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

The social angle to technology & transhumanism

David Wood @dw2

Page 17: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 17

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2473980/data-storage-solutions/143723-Storage-now-and-then.html slide 2

128MB 128GB

Page 18: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 18

http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/

$100M in 2001

$10k in 2011

$10M in 2007

Halving each 2 yrs

Halving each 5 months!

Page 19: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 19

Changes in the last 10 years

2004

2014 5 times faster

5 times cheaper

5 times smaller

Smartphones

Page 20: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 20

“In 10 years over 40% of the Fortune 500

will no longer be here”

Babson Olin School of Business Advertisement, Fast Company April 2011, page 121

Page 21: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 21

“The average lifespan of a company listed in the Standard & Poor 500

index of leading US companies has decreased from 67 years in the 1920s

to just 15 years today”

http://som.yale.edu/richard-n-foster http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16611040

In 8 years time, “more than 3/4 of the S&P 500 will be companies that

we have not heard of yet”

– Richard Foster, Yale

Page 22: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 22

Opportunities

Threats

The set of

possible futures

Foresight…

… is hard

Page 23: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 23

Rate of pace of change

increasing

Foresight…

… getting harder

Complex convergence

of technologies and

convergence of risks

Opportunities

Threats

So we need to get better at it!

Making credible futures vivid

Page 24: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 24

B N

C I

NBIC Convergence

Page 25: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 25

Atoms Genes

Bits Neurons

Bio-Tech

Nano-Tech

Cogno-Tech

ICT

Software

Hardware

Biology Physical

S^ ? “Singularity”

Page 26: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 26

4 AI + Human Intelligence

1

3 2

4 great convergences

Page 27: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 27

Convergence: AI & human intelligence

http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/Tech/2010/0617/How-a-computer-program-became-classical-music-s-hot-new-composer

http://www.allmusic.com/album/bach-by-design-computer-composed-music-mw0001354257/credits

Page 29: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 29

Convergence: AI & human intelligence

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/what-is-watson.html http://singularityhub.com/2011/03/09/paging-dr-watson-ai-jeopardy-champion-could-become-physicians-assistant/

• Understand content of medical records

• Understand research publications

• Able to discern new patterns

• Able to suggest experiments

• Explain hypotheses to humans

• Able to modify theories, and learn

Page 30: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 30

Convergence: AI & human intelligence

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/what-is-watson.html http://singularityhub.com/2011/03/09/paging-dr-watson-ai-jeopardy-champion-could-become-physicians-assistant/

Medical Science Cognitive Science

• Understand content of medical records

• Understand research publications

• Able to discern new patterns

• Able to suggest experiments

• Explain hypotheses to humans

• Able to modify theories, and learn

Page 31: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 31

Technological unemployment

http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/05/khosla-explains-his-robots-replacing-doctors-comment-and-goes-on-the-hunt-for-data-scientists/

“By 2025, 80% of the functions doctors do will be done much

better and much more cheaply by machines & algorithms”

– Vinod Khosla

“80% of doctors will be replaced by technology”

Page 32: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 32

Deep machine learning

Hybrid intelligence

4 AI + Human Intelligence

Human + Machine

1

3 2

4 great convergences

Page 34: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 34

“Already lets you run up to 40 km/h”

http://www.bionicboot.com/

“Bionic boots”

Wearable robots

Page 35: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 35

“Robotic suit gives shipyard workers super strength”

Daewoo Shipbuilding

Boosts raw lifting ability Workers manipulate heavy items more precisely

Suit takes most of the weight So the user is effectively handling light objects

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329803.900-robotic-suit-gives-shipyard-workers-super-strength.html

Wearable robots

Suit weights 28 kg Made from carbon, aluminium alloy, and steel

The suit supports itself Engineered to follow the wearer’s movements

Page 36: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 36

http://www.mc10inc.com/

“When Wearable Tech Saves Your Life, You Won’t Take It Off”

Digital tattoos

“Epidermal electronics”

The size of just 2 postage stamps

http://www.fastcompany.com/3033417/when-wearable-tech-saves-your-life-you-wont-take-it-off

Page 37: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 37

https://dangerousthings.com/

“Unlock doors with a wave of your hand: house, car…”

“Lock or unlock your PC / smartphone…”

“Store Bitcoins….”

Embedded RFIDs

Page 38: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 38

Deep machine learning

Hybrid intelligence

Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…

Cyborgs

4 AI + Human Intelligence

Human + Machine Software + Biology

1

3 2

4 great convergences

Page 39: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 39

Rob Carlson, Feb 2014: www.synthesis.cc

Price per Base of DNA Sequencing

(Reading) & Synthesis

(Writing)

Convergence: Software and biology

Page 40: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 40

Convergence: Software and biology

http://www.economist.com/node/16163154

“And man made life”

Designer babies

Re-designed adults

Regenerative medicine

Stem cell therapies

Rejuveneering

Page 41: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 41

Physical + Virtual

Deep machine learning

Hybrid intelligence

Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…

Cyborgs

4 AI + Human Intelligence

Human + Machine Software + Biology

Synthetic biology

Genetic engineering

1

3 2

4 great convergences

Page 44: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 44

Physical + Virtual

VR & AR

MOOCs, cryptocurrency…

Deep machine learning

Hybrid intelligence

Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…

Cyborgs

4 AI + Human Intelligence

Human + Machine Software + Biology

Synthetic biology

Genetic engineering

1

3 2

Page 45: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 45

Accelerating technology

Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence

Extra health Extra longevity

Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Robot employment

Extra opportunities Existential risks

Benefits individuals

Threatens society

Positive

feedback

Page 46: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 46

Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence

Extra health Extra longevity

Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Robot employment

Extra opportunities Existential risks

Benefits individuals

Threatens society

Issue: Progress to personal enhancements is far from inevitable

Answer: Agreed! It will require a great deal of innovation & diligence

Issue: All transhumanists think the Singularity is inevitable (in 2045?)

Answer: No we don’t! Timing is open

Discussion

Issue: Progress is bound to falter Answer: Unlikely (unless society

collapses) – tech engine powerful Idea: Let’s stop tech progress

Answer: Unlikely! Huge impetus

Page 47: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 47

Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence

Extra health Extra longevity

Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Robot employment

Extra opportunities Existential risks

Benefits individuals

Threatens society

If we allow individuals to enhance themselves

through smart R&D and free enterprise – without government interference –

the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product

Alongside smart R&D and the power of free enterprise, we also need

wise regulation and smart governance

1

2

And perhaps new social systems

Two contrasting

views possible

1 Techno-libertarian 2 Techno-progressive

Page 48: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 48

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/360347

The most important problem we are facing

now, today… is

Robert Shiller, Nobel prize winner for Economics,

14 October 2013

rising inequality

Page 49: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 49

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/theres-been-class-warfare-for-the-last-20-years-and-my-class-has-won/2011/03/03/gIQApaFbAL_blog.html

There’s been class warfare going on for the last 20 years, and my class has won. We’re the ones that have gotten our tax rates reduced dramatically

Warren Buffett, Investor, “Sage of Omaha”,

2011

Top 400 taxpayers Average income Tax rate

1992 $40M 29%

2010 $227M 21%

Page 51: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 51

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequality-story-in-six-charts

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/pdf/F0.I.1.pdf

http://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-

2012.pdf

Thomas Piketty

Page 52: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 52

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21631129-it-001-who-are-really-getting-ahead-america-forget-1

“The really, really rich get much, much richer”

“The 16,000 families making up the richest 0.01%, with an average net worth of $371M, now control 11.2% of total wealth—back to the 1916 share, which is the highest on record”

Page 55: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 55

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-billionaire-wealth-inequality/25132471.html

“Russia Has Highest Level Of Wealth Inequality” A new report on global wealth has determined that Russia now has the highest level of wealth inequality in the world -- with the exception of a few small Caribbean nations where billionaires have taken up residency.

The annual global wealth study published by the financial services group Credit Suisse says a mere 110 Russian citizens now control 35% of the total household wealth across the vast country.

By comparison, billionaires worldwide account for just 1-2% of total wealth.

The report says Russia has one billionaire for every $11 billion in wealth while, across the rest of the world, there is one billionaire for every $170 billion.

Page 56: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 56

Positive

feedback

cycle

The three inequality questions

1. Is inequality really a problem? – Or is it just a perceived problem?

2. Is powerful new technology likely to make inequality worse? – For example, via adverse positive feedback cycles? – What kind of scenarios are credible for the future?

3. What can be done to avoid escalating inequality? – Roles of politics, philosophy, and (yes) technology?

Page 57: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 57

The problems with inequality

1. Is inequality really a problem? – Or is it just a perceived problem?

A. A more unequal society is worse for everyone B. Equality of opportunity is declining too

– “The disappearing middle class”

C. A more unequal society is more explosive – And technology risks making it even more explosive

Positive

feedback

cycle

Page 58: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 58

http://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/resources/our-publications/spirit-level-slides

http://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/aug/14/the-spirit-level-equality-thinktanks

Page 59: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 59

Page 60: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 60

Page 61: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 61

Page 62: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 62

Page 63: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 63

Page 64: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 64

Page 65: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 65

Page 66: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 66

Page 67: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 67

Page 68: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 68

Page 69: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 69

Page 71: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 71

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/04/the-best-speech-obama-has-given-on-the-economy/

…I believe this is the defining challenge of our time

4 December 2013

A dangerous and growing inequality… has jeopardized middle-class America’s basic bargain:

– that if you work hard, you have a chance to get ahead

While we don’t promise equal outcomes, we have strived to deliver equal opportunity – the idea that success doesn’t depend on being born into wealth or privilege, it depends on effort and merit.

Page 73: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 73

Page 76: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 76

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/04/the-best-speech-obama-has-given-on-the-economy/

4 December 2013

The problem is that alongside increased inequality, we’ve seen diminished levels of upward mobility in

recent years. A child born in the top 20% has about a 2-in-3 chance

of staying at or near the top. A child born into the bottom 20% has a less than 1-in-

20 shot at making it to the top. He’s 10 times likelier to stay where he is.

Page 77: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 77 The problem isn’t that we have inequality. Some inequality is intrinsic to any high-functioning capitalist economy. The problem is that inequality is at historically high levels and getting worse every day… Unless our policies change dramatically, the middle class will disappear, and we will be back to late 18th-century France. Before the revolution. And so I have a message for my fellow filthy rich, for all of us who live in our gated bubble worlds: Wake up, people. It won’t last. If we don’t do something to fix the glaring inequities in this economy, the pitchforks are going to come for us. No society can sustain this kind of rising inequality. In fact, there is no example in human history where wealth accumulated like this and the pitchforks didn’t eventually come out. You show me a highly unequal society, and I will show you a police state. Or an uprising.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html

Nick Hanauer

Page 78: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 78

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2541541/Google-hiring-security-guards-protect-work-buses-San-Francisco-following-protests-tech-workers-driving-city-rents.html

Page 79: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 79

Locking in advantage: 5 factors 1. Capital growth exceeds economic growth (r > g: Piketty)

– More money -> investment -> even more money

2. Education – More money -> better education -> better career -> more money

3. “Winner takes all” – Better skills -> disproportionately higher reward

Page 80: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 80

Purchased by Facebook in April 2012

With 13 employees And 100 million registered users

For approx $1 billion in cash and stock

Launched in October 2010 Sociable

Usable

Winner takes a larger reward Compare Kodak

1997 valuation $30B 86,000 employees

2,000x productivity?!

Page 81: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 81

Purchased by Facebook in April 2012

With 13 employees And 100 million registered users

For approx $1 billion in cash and stock

Launched in October 2010

Winner takes a larger reward Compare Kodak

1997 valuation $30B 86,000 employees

2,000x productivity?!

Created seven billionaires!

Each with a net worth ten times greater than George

Eastman!

Page 82: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 82

Purchased by Facebook in Feb 2014

With 55 employees And 420 million active users

For approx $19 billion in cash & stock

Launched in March 2009 Sociable

Usable

Winner takes a larger reward

Page 83: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 83

“Winner takes all”: The Second Machine Age Gold medal >> Silver medal 1. The digitization of more and more

information, goods, and services 2. The vast improvements in

telecommunications and transport – The best products can be used in every

market

3. The increased importance of networks and standards – New capabilities and new ideas can be

combined and recombined more quickly

http://www.secondmachineage.com/

Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, MIT

Page 84: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 84

http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/531726/technology-and-inequality/

Steve Jurvetson Managing Director, Draper Fisher Jurvetson

Venture Capitalist investor in Hotmail Boards: SpaceX, Synthetic Genomics, Tesla Motors

“It just seems so obvious to me [that] technology is accelerating the rich-poor gap…”

“The elephant in the room, stomping around, banging off the walls”

Page 85: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 85

Locking in advantage: 5 factors 1. Capital growth exceeds economic growth (r > g: Piketty)

– More money -> investment -> even more money

2. Education – More money -> better education -> better career -> more money

3. “Winner takes all” – Better skills -> disproportionately higher reward

4. Technology to enhance your health (body power) – Fitter -> work more effectively -> better rewards

5. Technology to enhance your intelligence (brain power) – Smarter -> work more effectively -> better rewards – “Limitless”

Page 86: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 86

Accelerating technology

Reduces prices

Increases inequality

Positive

feedback

Creates practical abundance

Page 89: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 89

128MB 128GB

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2473980/data-storage-solutions/143723-Storage-now-and-then.html slide 2

Page 98: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 98

Examples of rate of change

Source: “Exponential Organizations”

Technology Average cost for equivalent functionality Scale

3D printing $40,000 (2007) to $100 (2014) 400x in 7 years

Industrial robots $500,000 (2008) to $22,000 (2013) 23x in 5 years

Drones $100,000 (2007) to $700 (2013) 142x in 6 years

Solar energy $30 per kWh (1984) to $0.16 per kWh (2014) 200x in 20 years

3D LIDAR Sensors $20,000 (2009) to $79 (2014) 250x in 5 years

DNA genome seq $10,000,000 (2007) to $1,000 (2014) 10,000x in 7 years

BCI neuro devices $4,000 (2006) to $90 (2011) 44x in 5 years

Full body med scan $10,000 (2000) to $500 (2014) 20x in 14 years

http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-organizations-h

Page 99: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 99

Accelerating technology

Reduces prices

Increases inequality

Positive

feedback

Creates practical abundance

Enables fabulous

new functionality

Initially still at exorbitant prices

Page 100: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 100

Four future scenarios 1. Inequality accepted – through “practical abundance” despite inequality

– Majority of people will become comparatively poorer, but goods will reduce in expense – People remain relatively happy and acquiescent – Even though the 1% have more abundance than everyone else – People may spend lots of time in virtual worlds and soap operas

2. Inequality exploded: Pitchforks, revolution, and worse – Some important goods will only be affordable by the super-rich – Specialised healthcare? Rejuvenation technology? – “Practical abundance” is not enough – Growing societal tensions -> risk of explosions, pitchforks, horrific terrorism, WMD

3. Inequality controlled: Transhumanism for the 1% – New tech will make some humans super-intelligent (brain-enhanced) & super-powerful – Much bigger & faster differentiation than existing educational benefits – That new ruling class will be able to suppress all dissent: super-effective police state

4. Inequality vanquished: Transhumanism for all – Determined social pressure to ensure access to new technologies by everyone – Don’t leave social evolution up to the forces of “free market liberalism” – Improve on social organisation, just like we believe we can improve on bio-evolution

Page 101: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 101

Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence

Extra health Extra longevity

Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Robot employment

Extra opportunities Existential risks

Benefits individuals

Threatens society

If we allow individuals to enhance themselves

through smart R&D and free enterprise – without government interference –

the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product

Alongside smart R&D and the power of free enterprise, we also need

wise regulation and smart governance

1

2

And perhaps new social systems

Two contrasting

views possible

1 Techno-libertarian 2 Techno-progressive

Page 102: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 102 What can be done to avoid escalating inequality?

• Deepen our awareness of impacts of social factors on alienation and initiative – Sharpen our understanding of which kinds of inequality matter the most (and most need fixing) – Local experimentation (at city, region, or country levels) will make us collectively wiser – Expect a big role for a Basic Income Guarantee, especially as Technological Unemployment grows

• Encourage growth, where appropriate, of “collaborative commons” voluntary sector • Elevate the power of “conscious capitalism” over “crony capitalism” & “vested interests”

– Encourage visions other than just pursuit of greater profit (“man cannot live by bread alone”) – Enable societies to adopt “massive transformational purpose” (MTP – term used by Singularity Univ) – A good MTP could be something like “transhumanism for all”

• Re-invigorate democratic systems – Democracy 2.0 – building on success of e.g. MOOCs – Better use of technology to involve more people at right times in relevant decision-making processes – The blockchain tech (which underlies Bitcoin) can enable DAOs (Distributed Autonomous Orgs)

• Develop smart drugs and other systems that make us all (with our permission) not just smarter and stronger but also kinder and more empathetic – With that new spirit, more people in the “1%” will be moved to champion inclusivity – This is “inner transhumanism” as opposed to just “outer transhumanism”

http://dw2blog.com/2011/04/17/towards-inner-humanity/

Page 103: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 103

Technoprogressive Declaration (1/6) The world is unacceptably unequal and dangerous. Emerging technologies could make things dramatically better or worse. Unfortunately too few people yet understand the dimensions of both the threats and rewards that humanity faces. It is time for technoprogressives, transhumanists and futurists to step up our political engagement and attempt to influence the course of events.

http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/tpdec2014

Page 104: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 104

Technoprogressive Declaration (2/6) Our core commitment is that both technological progress and democracy are required for the ongoing emancipation of humanity from its constraints. Partisans of the promises of the Enlightenment, we have many cousins in other movements for freedom and social justice. We must build solidarity with these movements, even as we intervene to point to the radical possibilities of technologies that they often ignore. With our fellow futurists and transhumanists we must intervene to insist that technologies are well-regulated and made universally accessible in strong and just societies. Technology could exacerbate inequality and catastrophic risks in the coming decades, or, especially if democratized and well-regulated, ensure longer, healthy and more enabled lives for growing numbers of people, and a stronger and more secure civilization.

http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/tpdec2014

Page 105: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 105

Technoprogressive Declaration (3/6) Beginning with our shared commitment to individual self-determination we can build solidarity with • Organizations defending workers and the unemployed, as technology

transforms work and the economy • The movement for reproductive rights, around access to contraception,

abortion, assisted reproduction and genomic choice • The movement for drug law reform around the defense of cognitive liberty • The disability rights movement around access to assistive and curative

technologies • Sexual and gender minorities around the right to bodily self-determination • Digital rights movements around new freedoms and means of expression and

organization.

http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/tpdec2014

Page 106: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 106

Technoprogressive Declaration (4/6) We call for dramatically expanded governmental research into anti-aging therapies, and universal access to those therapies as they are developed in order to make much longer and healthier lives accessible to everybody. We believe that there is no distinction between “therapies” and “enhancement”. The regulation of drugs and devices needs reform to speed their approval.

http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/tpdec2014

Page 107: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 107

Technoprogressive Declaration (5/6) As artificial intelligence, robotics and other technologies increasingly destroy more jobs than they create, and senior citizens live longer, we must join in calling for a radical reform of the economic system.

All persons should be liberated from the necessity of the toil of work.

Every human being should be guaranteed an income, healthcare, and life-long access to education.

http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/tpdec2014

Page 108: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

@dw2

Page 108

Technoprogressive Declaration (6/6) We must join in working for the expansion of rights to all persons, human or not. We must join with movements working to reduce existential risks, educating them about emerging threats they don’t yet take seriously, and proposing ways that emerging technologies can help reduce those risks. Transnational cooperation can meet the man-made and natural threats that we face. It is time for technoprogressives to step forward and work together for a brighter future.

http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/tpdec2014

Page 109: TransVision review: the social angle to technology and transhumanism

TransVision review

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

The social angle to technology & transhumanism

David Wood @dw2