Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented to

1212thth TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX2009, Houston, TX

presented by

Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel BeaganCambridge Systematics, Inc.

May 18, 2009

Climate Change in Travel Demand Models

Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

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Presentation Outline

I - What is climate change

II - Impacts on transportation and land use

III - Policies and measures to mitigate climate change

IV - Incorporate climate change in travel demand models

Credit: Rose Fyson, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

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I - What is Climate Change

Credit: Ninita Machava, Pedro Livinga,Vasco Macuácua,Rebeca Gomes,Rebeca Mavuia.Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

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A Definition

Changes in the atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols, in solar radiation and in land surface properties

Radiative forcing

Increases in global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane and N2O due to human activities

The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change

Methane and N2O are primarily due to agriculture

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The Earth’s Greenhouse Effect

Source : The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation

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GHGs and Temperature Trends

Source : Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis, IPCC

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Global and Continental Temperature Change

Source : Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis, IPCC

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United States Temperature Change

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II - Impacts on Transportation and Land Use

Credit: Students at Charupeeth School of Fine Art, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

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Impact of Climate Change on Transportation

Climate ChangeClimate ChangeAnd VariabilityAnd Variability

• Temperature changeTemperature change• Precipitation changePrecipitation change• Accelerated sea Accelerated sea level riselevel rise• Increased storm Increased storm surge and intensitysurge and intensity

TransportationTransportationDecision MakingDecision Making

• Systematic planningSystematic planningand investmentand investment• Project developmentProject development• OperationsOperations• MaintenanceMaintenance• System AssessmentSystem Assessment

TransportationTransportationImpactsImpacts

• LocationLocation• System DesignSystem Design• Emergency mgmt.Emergency mgmt.• Investment LevelsInvestment Levels

Source : Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, FHWA

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Impacts on Land Use and Transportation

Water Scarcity

Insurance restrictions

Increases in very hot days and heat waves

Increases in Arctic temperatures

Rising sea levels

Increases in intense precipitation events

Increases in hurricane intensity

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Operational Impacts

Rising sea levels

• Operational Impact : More frequent interruptions to coastal and low-lying roadway travel and rail service due to storm surges and more severe storm surges, requiring evacuation and/or changes in development patterns

Increases in intense precipitation events

• Operational Impact : Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptions and increased flooding of evacuation routes

More frequent strong hurricanes

• Operational Impact : More frequent and potentially more extensive emergency evacuations and more debris on roads and rail lines

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III - Policies and Measures to Mitigate Climate Change

Credit: Ashley Cecil, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

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Policy Recommendations

Incorporate climate change into long term capital improvement plans, facility designs, maintenance practices, operations, and emergency response plans

Better investment analyses and design approaches to B/C effects of making infrastructure more robust

Better coordination and communication between various agencies

Include needs of transportation decision makers in climate change research

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Policy Recommendations

Better integration of transportation with emergency response and evacuation plans

Knowledge sharing of best practices across various institutions to address impacts of climate change

Incentives to mitigate climate change impacts

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Policy Recommendations

Include climate change as a factor in the development of Include climate change as a factor in the development of public-sector, long-range transportation plans; eliminate public-sector, long-range transportation plans; eliminate any perception that such plans should be limited to 20–30 any perception that such plans should be limited to 20–30 years; and require collaboration in plan development with years; and require collaboration in plan development with agencies responsible for land use, environmental agencies responsible for land use, environmental protection, and natural resource management to foster protection, and natural resource management to foster more integrated transportation–land use decision makingmore integrated transportation–land use decision making

Source : TRB Special Report 290 : Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation

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Mitigation Analysis

Models should provide insights into changes in travel behavior due to measures taken to mitigate climate change

The models should be able to answer questions such as

• Impacts of carbon taxes on travel behavior

• Impacts of congestion pricing

• Impacts of changes in transit service

• Impacts of changes to land use

Models should support mitigation policy options

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IV - Incorporate Climate change in Travel Demand Models

Credit: Gukzik Lau, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

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The Modeling Process

Land UseLand Use

Traffic Traffic AssignmentAssignment

Trip GenerationTrip Generation

Trip DistributionTrip Distribution

Mode ChoiceMode Choice

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Climate Change in Demand Models

Climate ChangeClimate ChangeScenarioScenario

5 to 9 F 5 to 9 F increaseincrease

Map USGC geography Map USGC geography to model geographyto model geography

Measure CC scenario Measure CC scenario impacts on impacts on

sociodemographic, sociodemographic, physical and transportationphysical and transportation

characteristicscharacteristics

Incorporate Incorporate into TD modelinto TD model

processprocess

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Land Use Models

Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in• Current land useCurrent land use

• Zoning plansZoning plans• Environmental Environmental and regulatoryand regulatory

ConstraintsConstraints• DevelopableDevelopable

areasareas

Land Use ModelsLand Use Models

Variability inVariability in• Households/TAZHouseholds/TAZ• Employment/TAZEmployment/TAZ

• Attraction Attraction LocationsLocations

Model changesModel changes •Reduction in Reduction in control totalscontrol totals• Increase in Increase in

transportation transportation costscosts

• Loss of Loss of employmentemployment

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Trip Generation Models

Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in• Households/TAZHouseholds/TAZ• Employment/TAZEmployment/TAZ

• Special Special generatorsgenerators

Trip GenerationTrip Generation ModelsModels Variability inVariability in

• Trip Ps and AsTrip Ps and As

Model ChangesModel Changes •Reduction in tripReduction in trip

rates rates • Increase in Increase in residential residential

density density

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Trip Distribution Models

Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in• Trip Ps and AsTrip Ps and As

• SkimsSkims• Trip LengthsTrip Lengths

Trip DistributionTrip Distribution ModelsModels Variability inVariability in

• Trip OD pairsTrip OD pairs

Model ChangesModel Changes • Changes in Changes in

friction factors friction factors • Network Network availability availability

• Access Availability Access Availability

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Mode Choice Models

Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in

• Vehicle AvailabilityVehicle Availability• SkimsSkims

• Destination Destination access access

• Land use changesLand use changes

Mode ChoiceMode Choice ModelsModels

Variability inVariability in• Mode SharesMode Shares

• Mode OD pairsMode OD pairs

Model ChangesModel Changes • More joint trips More joint trips

• Increases in vehicleIncreases in vehicleoperating costsoperating costs• More transit More transit

crowding crowding

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Assignment Models

Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in• Mode OD pairsMode OD pairs

• SkimsSkims• Network availability Network availability

AssignmentAssignment ModelsModels

Variability inVariability in• VMT, VHTVMT, VHT

• Congested speedsCongested speedsand timesand times

• total vehicles ontotal vehicles onNetworkNetwork

• GHG estimationGHG estimationModel ChangesModel Changes

• Restricted capacity Restricted capacity • Speed restrictionsSpeed restrictions• increased transit increased transit

networksnetworks

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Summary

Transportation planners and modelers need to be at the climate change table

The impacts of climate change should be included in development or testing of alternatives during the LRTP cycle

The process proposed here offers a relatively simple way to include climate change in travel demand models

The model should provide insights into changes in travel behavior due to climate change mitigation strategies

Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented to

1212thth TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX2009, Houston, TX

presented by

Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel BeaganCambridge Systematics, Inc.

May 18, 2009

Climate Change in Travel Demand Models

Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International