transport - move towards sustainability s. sundar distinguished fellow, teri hudco chair professor,...
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Transport - Move towards sustainability
S. SundarDistinguished Fellow, TERI
HUDCO Chair Professor, TERI University,
5th Feb 2014
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Key trends: Growth in freight traffic
Continuous erosion in the share of Railways in freight movement and increase in share of less fuel efficient road transport
Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport with over 50% of the freight Length of cross-country crude oil pipelines in India : 5889 km(2010) Total product pipelines (including LPG pipelines) - 12 925 km, with a capacity of 72 MT
*Modal share in total freight traffic as of 2007-08, source: RITES Total Transport Study; #Compiled from 11th Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport and RITES Total Transport Study
% Share (NTKM)*
Road = 50.12%
Rail = 36.06%
Coastal shipping = 6.8%
Pipeline = 7.48%
IWT = 0.24%
Airways = 0.02%
Increasing share of road
Increasing share of road
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Key trends: Growth in passenger traffic
Substantial shift from rail to road Rail dominates long-haul Road dominates short-haul
Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport. Almost 90% passengers moved by road in 2010-11
Air based passenger transport has seen a rapid growth in the last decade
% Share (BPKM)*
Road = 86.7%
Rail = 12.9%
Air= 0.4%
*Modal share in total passenger traffic as of 2007-08 compiled from 11 th Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport and Statistical Summary – Indian Railways
Increasing share of road
Increasing share of road
BAU passenger growth trends expected to continue in future
• Rapid increase in passenger Rapid increase in passenger transport demand expectedtransport demand expected
Source: Estimates by TERI (2009)Source: Estimates by TERI (2009)Estimates are in the medium range as compared to many other estimatesEstimates are in the medium range as compared to many other estimates
2010 to 20302010 to 2030 3 times increase 3 times increase
2010 to 20502010 to 2050 7 times increase 7 times increase
70%70%
80%80%• Road sector’s dominance to Road sector’s dominance to
continue in BAUcontinue in BAU
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Current Scenario–Urban Transport
Population growth and rapid urbanization; more and bigger cities
38% of India’s total population to live in cities by 2025 53 million plus cities now; 85 million plus cities by 2025 and 125 by 2050. Most million plus cities are urban sprawls leading to increase in travel demand
Declining share of public transport
Public transport accounts for 30-55% in the four large metropolis
Public transport share in cities having a population of more than 0.8 million was in the range of 60% to 80% in 1994; this has now declined to 35% to 55%
Arrest the decline in public transport and increase its share to 50%
Introduce public transport in second-order cities Promote informal transport
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Non-motorised transport also declining Lack of infrastructure for non-motorized transport and the increasing
trip lengths due to the horizontal expansion of cities have affected pedestrians, cyclists and other non-motorized transport users in cities
Share of NMT, though high in cities, is declining as cities grow Maintain and increase the share of NMT
Mode share in Indian cities
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Rapid motorization
About 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 35 million +cities Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population
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Energy implications
The transport sector accounted for 27% (98 mtoe), next only to industry sector, of the total commercial energy consumed in the country*
The transport sector had the largest share in consumption of diesel (~70%) and petrol (~95%)#
Petrol and diesel constitute 20% and 78%, respectively of the fuel consumed by the transport sector; the remaining 2% consists of CNG, LPG, and electricity
In a BAU scenario, energy consumption is likely to increase by 6 times by 2050; dominated by road transport
Current imports of about 85% of 204 MT of crude oil processed in the country would increase to 90% of 757 mtoe by 2030, compromising India’s energy security
Sources: TERI estimates (2013); #Report of the Expert Group to Advise on Pricing Methodology of Regulated Petroleum Products (2013)
Is the current scenario sustainable?Current scenario:Lack of an integrated policy, targets and strategy to place transport on a low carbon pathFragmented responsibilityLack of inter-modal connectivity and seamless movementPolicies favour the personal automobileCities spend more on infrastructure expansion- creating more space for cars- flyovers, parking lots, expressways, etc.Price distortions and fuel adulteration
Has led to uni-modal growth with excessive dependence on road transport
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Lack of effective emission regulation
– Lack of a formal fuel quality or emissions road map beyond 2010 for new vehicles
– New Auto Fuel Policy Committee set up in 2013 to draw up roadmap up to 2025. The Committee is yet to submit its report
Different standards – one country
One set of standards for air quality across the country Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for
20 cities and rest of the country Many other cities are more polluted than the ones
where better quality fuel is presently supplied Dual standards effectively treat the majority of the
citizens in the country as second class citizens Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities need to
fill inferior quality fuel with consequences
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For New Vehicles
Introduce better quality fuels and emission standards –
EURO IV across the country by 2015, EURO V by 2017 and
EURO VI by 2019
Move from Indian Driving Cycle towards World Harmonised Test Cycles
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And for inuse vehicles
PUC totally unsatisfactory– Poor compliance – Equipment not properly calibrated– Operators not trained– Integrity of testing in doubt
Strengthen existing I&M system for all vehicles, especially for trucks , buses and 3 wheelers
Introduce in-use vehicle management systems based on random COP testing and deterioration factors together with a recall policy
Move to annual re-registration of private vehiclesCurrent regulations require private vehicles to re-register after a
period of 15 years
Formulate a policy for fleet modernization to benefit from better fuels 16
The sustainable approach
Avoid…the need to travel
Shift…to sustainable modes
Improve…systems, technology and fuels
Approach particularly important for urban areas
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Reduce number of trips or at least rate of growth of number of
tripsReduce length of trips
Two key instruments to do this:Integration of land use and transport in new developments and
retrofitting existing developments Use of information technology (IT) as a substitute for physical
mobility – tele-/e-work and flexi-work hours, e-
governance/shopping/education, etc.
Avoid
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ShiftShift from personal vehicles to public transport and non-motorized
modes Prevent shift from NMT and public transport (PT)
Instruments:Encourage and facilitate NMT with appropriate policies and infrastructure
provision Introduce/enhance public transport capacity as appropriateRegulate/rationalise para transit to supplement PTIntroduce in parallel measures to discourage the routine use and ownership of personal vehicles
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Promote efficient and clean vehicles and fuels
Improve traffic flow, driver behavior,road conditions etc Establish robust inspection and maintenance regimes for all
vehicles, with priority for trucks and busesMove towards a world harmonized testing cycle for Type
Approval testingEncourage the use of alternate fuels and accelerate
introduction of e-vehicles and solar chargingIntroduce intelligent transport systems to reduce congestion and
facilitate smooth flow of traffic
Improve
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Issues in governance
ASI interventions call for close collaboration between Centre and States
States have a major role in Avoid and Shift and also in emission control and air quality management
Section 7 of the Air Act empowers a state to prescribe tighter vehicle emission and fuel quality standards- states should examine the need for more stringent standards in heavily polluted cities
Need unified agencies for transport at national, state and urban level
– All matters pertaining to transport should come under a single umbrella
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