Translating Science into Long-term Delta Policy

Ellen HanakPublic Policy Institute of CaliforniaCALFED Science Conference, 2008

Some thoughts based on the PPIC-UC Davis Delta reports

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Comparing Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Engineers:Jay Lund, UC Davis

William Fleenor, UC DavisEconomists:

Ellen Hanak, PPICRichard Howitt, UC Davis

Biologists:Peter Moyle, UC Davis

William Bennett, UC DavisGeologist:

Jeffrey Mount, UC Davis

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Outline

Setting objectives

Useful tools and approaches

Linking science and policy: some examples

Next steps and questions

Goal: inform policy discussions with independent analysis

As non-stakeholders, free to take an unconstrained look at Delta conditions, policy optionsIf no questions are automatically off the table, how to ensure relevance?– Interdisciplinary perspectives– Stakeholder consultations (scoping device)– Policy and technical reviews– Quick turn-around (necessary in this case)

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Toolkit for mobilizing insights with a quick turn-around

Syntheses of existing science– Esp. in biological, geophysical sciences

Available quantitative modeling tools– Hydrodynamics (WAM)– Economics of alternatives (CALVIN, SWAP)

Expert surveys– Fish responses to water management– Drinking water quality– Legal and regulatory issues

Decision analysis – Insights despite uncertainty

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Water quality management and the Clean Water Act

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Sea level rise (ft)

Biology: greater variability better for desirable speciesHydrodynamics: future Delta farming compromised by sea level rise, weak leveesLegal/regulatory: can CWA enforcement accommodate greater variability sooner?

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Sacramento River at Emmaton

San Joaquin River at Jersey Point

Days exceeding irrigation standards (%)

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Clifton Court Forebay

Delta levees and liability

Geophysics: high failure probabilities for many leveesEconomics: not all islands worth savingHydrodynamics: not all islands needed for water qualityLegal/regulatory: thorny questions about liability, state and federal roles

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Habitat conservation plans and the Endangered Species Act

Biology: fish prospects best with no exports, but still high risks of species lossLegal/regulatory:– Hard to disentangle

exports from other harmful factors

– HCPs allow multi-species focus, but ESA risks shutting down projects with single species loss

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Next steps

Adaptation potential of future Delta economyMore hydrodynamics, operations analysis:– Implications of

island floodingKey operational question for PC:– Minimum

environmental flow requirements

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Unresolved questions about approach

Are there limits to an arm’s length approach?– Challenge to make use of “maverick”

enterprises (sometimes ends up in the policy “spin zone”)

Can this type of work be done within agencies?– Need something more directed than NSF-

type program (CALFED model)– But with freedom to come up with

inconvenient answers

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