Transitioning Capabilities between

NASA Research and

NOAA Operations

Stan WilsonIGST-10

Nov 14-16, 2005

(rev 29)

Near TermNear Term

• Transitioning between NASA and NOAA has been identified as a national issue

• Congressional language in the NOAA FY05 budget– “Provide NOAA the capability to transition NASA remote sensed

ocean measurements into operational products for the user community”

– Observations explicitly mentioned: “ocean winds from scatterometers,…sea level…from altimeters, and…ocean color”

• An FY05 Implementation Plan for a $4M R&O Program has been developed and implemented

• Initially funded as a one-year effort, the $4M has been continued in the FY06 budget

Longer Term

• Establish a formal process – a Transition Plan – to facilitate the transitioning specific capabilities* between NASA and NOAA…by the end of the year

• This is one of the Administrator’s priorities for NOAA• This is to be accomplished via a NASA/NOAA Joint

Working Group for R&O led by Chet Koblinsky for NOAA• Progress will ultimately depend on success in the budget

process – the first opportunity is FY08

* The term, capabilities, includes the full range of activities extending from space hardware, calibration & validation, communications, ground data system including archival, timely access to data, assimilation of data into models, and the generation of associated analyses and forecasts

Sea Surface Height

Objective• Transition satellite altimetry from NASA research to NOAA

operations by implementing Jason-3

Status• NASA has provided 14 years of high-quality SSH, with

TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1, but will not continue support beyond Jason-2

Identified Tasks• Justify user requirements for operational SSH – hurricane intensity,

coastal sea level, S/I, climate analyses, global sea level rise...

Overall Issue• Build the case for a Jason-3 new start in FY08 budget with

European partner

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NO.19NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT...THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING...DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Left source: NASA/JAXA TRMM TMI; right: NASA/CNES T/P & Jason-1, USN GFO, and ESA ENVISAT Figures courtesy of Gustavo Goni, NOAA/OAR/AOML

These are the actual data fields used in the SHIPS model at the Tropical Prediction Center to aid in forecasting the intensity of Hurricane Katrina.

The top figure is the Reynolds SST field in degrees C.

The bottom is the estimated Oceanic Heat Content derived from a combination of SST analysis fields, blended Sea Surface Height Anomaly fields from the Jason-1 and GFO altimeters, and a hurricane seasonal oceanic climatology (for June-Nov).

Images courtesy of:Nick Shay, RSMAS/ U of Miami &Michelle Mainelli, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC

Sea Surface Height

Tasks Participants

Assess impact of sea surface height (SSH) in HYCOM on hurricane intensity forecasts

•Mark DeMaria, Colorado State Univ.•Kerry Emanuel, MIT•Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island•Gustavo Goni, AOML•Rick Knabb, NCEP/TPC; JTWC

Assess impact of SSH in HYCOM on coastal forecasting for marine navigation, coastal planning, and resource management

•Fred Toepfer, NCEP•Frank Aikman, NOS/CSDL•Ants Leetmaa, GFDL

Assess impact of SSH on seasonal and interannual forecasting

•Dave Behringer, NCEP/EMC

Demonstrate in-house capability for operational calibration and quality assessment for Jason-2

Laury Miller, NESDIS

Utilize SVW and SSH for improved estimates of surface current field for use by resource managers, hazmat response, and search & rescue

•Gary Lagerloef, Earth & Space Research•Fabrice Bonjean, ESR

Combine SSH and Argo for improved climate analyses and assessments

•Ants Leetmaa, GFDL•Josh Willis, JPL

Define observational requirements for global sea level rise via WCRP-endorsed workshop: Understanding Sea-level Rise and Variability, Paris, June 6-9, 2006

•John Church, CSIRO•Phil Woodworth, PSMSL•Stan Wilson

Surface Vector Winds

Objective• Identify the most appropriate path for NOAA to collect operational surface

vector winds (SVW)Status• NASA QuikSCAT data have been used operationally by NWS for 4 years• Post-QuikSCAT SVW are to be provided by NPOESS/CMIS, but its

performance is predicated on an evaluation of WindSatIdentified Tasks • Ensure timely access by NWS to WindSat SVW to enable user evaluation• Refine QuikSCAT products – rain flag & spatial resolutionOverall Issue• To the extent that CMIS is inadequate, explore options for flight of a follow-

on to QuikSCAT – one option: a NASA C/Ku-band scatterometer with microwave radiometer

Surface Vector Winds

Tasks Participants

Assess operational impact of QuikSCAT and WindSat surface vector winds (SVW) on high-seas wind forecasts

•John LeMarshall, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation•John Derber, NCEP/EMC

Improve accuracy of center-fixing of tropical cyclones and high-seas surface synoptic analyses

•Paul Chang, NESDIS•Joe Sienkiewicz, NCEP/OPC•Rick Knabb, NCEP/TPC

Develop improved operational rain flag for better detection and tracking of tropical & extra-tropical cyclones

•Paul Chang•Steve Frasier, University of Massachusetts

Provide real-time access to WindSat by Weather Forecast Offices

Paul Chang

Provide finer-resolution products – both land-mask and SVW – for use at coastal WFOs

•Paul Chang•Mike Freilich, Oregon State Univ.•David Long, Brigham Young Univ.

Assess operational impact of SVW at WFOs for short-term coastal forecasts – eg, small-craft advisories and frontal passages

•Mike Freilich •Ralph Milliff, Colorado Research Associates•Weather Forecast Offices

Challenges

• $1B over-run in the $5B NPOESS Program• Next generation of GOES is in development• Impact of Moon, Mars & Shuttle programs on

Earth science at NASA