transition to sustainable energy services (transes) · email: [email protected]. sintef...

1SINTEF Energiforskning AS

Transition to Sustainable Transition to Sustainable Energy Energy Services (TRANSES)Services (TRANSES)A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers2004 - 2008

Dr. Bjorn H. BakkenEnergy SystemsSINTEF Energy ResearchTrondheim, Norway

email: [email protected]


TransitionTransition to Sustainable Energy Services (TRANSES) to Sustainable Energy Services (TRANSES)

ObjectivesObjectives

Outline and evaluate likely technology portfolios, deployment paths and policy options to meet future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment

Create an international arena for dissemination of results, dialogue and exchange of ideas in order to gain a swifter transition to sustainable energy services

Provide a toolbox of computational tools, methods and databases for analysis and decision support under uncertainty

PhD education and long-term scientific cooperation between the institutions involved



SponsorsSponsors

Project idea created by Norsk Hydro, The Industry’s Innovation Fund at NTNU and Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU

Current sponsors:Norsk HydroNorske ShellStatoilStatkraft (Norw. State Power Company)Statnett (Norw. Grid Company)Statsbygg (Norw. State Building Operator)Enova (State agency for energy efficiency and renewable energy)...



Scientific partnersScientific partners

The Department of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU

The Department of Electrical Power Engineering, NTNU

The Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, NTNU

SINTEF Energy Research

The Laboratory For Energy and the Environment (LFEE) at MIT

The Department of Energy Technology, Chalmers

Others....?

ChalmersMITNTNU


Transition to Sustainable Energy Services (TRANSES) Transition to Sustainable Energy Services (TRANSES)

PhD StudiesPhD Studies

A number of coordinated PhD studies and possibly PostDoc postitions will be initiated at the different participating institutions. Suggested themes are:

Decision support under uncertaintyEfficient energy use / Building technology The end users role and behaviourEmissions trading and green certificatesHydrogen as future energy carrierCO2 free technologyLife Cycle Assessment...


Samples of TRANSES challengesSamples of TRANSES challenges

1. Clean NordpoolCan market mechanisms be utilized to gain a swifter transition to sustainable energy services?

2. Rational RegulationWhat set of regulations on economic, environmental and other aspects provides the best incentives to industry and consumers?

3. Efficient UtilizationWhat role can new technology play, and in which time perspective?The end-users role, his needs and his behaviour are included in this evaluation

4. Coordinated CarriersHow can different energy carriers and energy technologies be coordinated in the economically and environmentally best way possible?


Power market (EMPS)

Energy system simulator(s)

TRANSES analytical frameworkTRANSES analytical framework

Stakeholder interaction

”Analytical engine”

Supply scenarios(capacities, locations,

technologies etc.)

Demand scenarios(sectors, carriers,

services etc.)

Input database(resources, technologies,

costs, efficiencies, demand drivers etc.)

Assumptions(attributes, strategies,

uncertainties etc.)

MCDM(extraction of results,

trade-off analysis)

Presentationof results

(trade-off plots etc.)

Gas market

Hydrogen market

District heating

Simulation results(system attributes: costs,

prices, local and globalemissions etc.)

Expansion model

(investments)


TRANSES TRANSES –– current activities (first year)current activities (first year)

Identify adequate analytical toolsPreliminary studies with EMPS model and MIT Trade-off New or existing models and methodologies

Input data and assumptionsCurrent system, new resources, technological alternatives, macroeconomic trends etc.

Establishing efficient ways of cooperation between participating institutions

Core activities in Trondheim, Norway

Employing PhD students

Establish stakeholder groupInitial stakeholder meetingsExtend the funding for the project


Scandinavia Scandinavia –– an ideal region for analysisan ideal region for analysis

All major energy resources/technologies presentHydro, nuclear, coal, oil, gas, biomass, wind, …

Limited geographical scopeNorway, Sweden, Finland and DenmarkLimited connections to neighboring countriesTransparency (data availability)

Market and competitionCommon liberalized power market (Nord Pool)Emerging European gas marketEmerging “green certificate” markets

Good region for experimenting with new planning models and methodologies


Electricity Generation Electricity Generation in in NordelNordel 2002 (TWh)2002 (TWh)

DENMARK

SWEDEN

FINLAND

NORWAY

Conv. thermalNuclearHydroWind

65.6 66.0

11.20.6

0.8

129.7

39.8

21.410.6

32.3

4.9


Generation capacity Generation capacity vs. vs. consumptionconsumption1976 1976 -- 20012001

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

TWh/

year

Consumption

Average generation 2002 (119 TWh/year)


Demand uncertaintiesDemand uncertainties

Driving forces for growth in electricity demandSubstitution of oil to electricityIncreased comfort (kWh/m2)Increased activities (m2 and NOK)Domestic changes (m2 per capita)

Uncertainties in demandDevelopment of district heatingDevelopment of natural gasDevelopment of hydrogen etc.


NOU 1998:11NOU 1998:11Electricity demand Electricity demand scenariosscenarios

020406080

100120140160180200

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

TWh/

year

Green BPHeavy C-1Heavy C-2SteadyJourney Up

2002


Energy system analysis at SINTEF Energy ResearchEnergy system analysis at SINTEF Energy Research

Overview of talkOverview of talk

Introduction to SINTEF

Planning of Distribution Systems with Multiple Energy Carriers

TRANSES - Alternatives for the Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe

Multi-area Power Market Simulator EMPS

Utilisation of transmission system capacity

Integration of local energy sources by power electronic converters


MultiMulti--Attribute TAttribute Traderade--Off Analysis (1)Off Analysis (1)TRANSES: Not just another scenario study!

Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Trade-off AnalysisScenario planning approach developed to facilitate dialogue and learning among multi-stakeholder audiences

Graphical presentation of trade-offsLarge Number of Technological Options

Multi-Option StrategiesLarge Number of Uncertainties

Multiple Futures (fuel prices, demand etc.)Large Number of Goal States/Attributes

Multiple Stakeholders, Conflicting Goals

MIT has extensive experience in applying Multi-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis

New England, Switzerland, Shandong (China), ….


MultiMulti--Attribute TAttribute Traderade--Off Analysis (2)Off Analysis (2)

Source: SR Connors, MIT


MultiMulti--Attribute TAttribute Traderade--Off Analysis (3)Off Analysis (3)Features

Helps facilitate stakeholder dialogues Identifies “Good” and “Bad” strategiesIdentifies competing/complementary sets of optionsRecognizes different “Deployment Schedules” of different optionsIdentifies “Robust/Flexible” versus “Optimal” strategies

Supported bySimulation and optimisation tools

E.g. EMPS model, Markal, Prosym, others“Analytical package” still to be determined

Stakeholder workshopsEmphasize stakeholder interaction and dialogue

ChallengesMarket aspect

Decentralised planning, multiple decision makersConsistent representation of investments

Market driven, high risk


Energy products of NorwayEnergy products of Norway20012001

1810

530

118

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Energy products

Ener

gy (T

Wh) Hydropower

GasOil


Energy Energy consumptionconsumption in Norwayin Norway1970 1970 -- 20012001

50

100

150

200

250

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Natural and other gassesOil products

District heating

Electricity

Wood and wasteCoal and coke

TWh

Electricity +2.6% p.a.


Residential electricity consumption Residential electricity consumption inin NorwayNorway (%)(%)

7Other equipment

2Drying

3Washing

4Cooking

8Cooling

11Lighting

24Hot water

41Space heating


Annual increase in generation and consumption Annual increase in generation and consumption 1960 1960 -- 19951995

1990-19951980-19901970-19801960-1970

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

TWh/year

Average increasein generationAverage increasein generation

Average increase in consumptionAverage increase in consumption


Peak demand recordsPeak demand records1990 1990 -- 20022002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Peak

dem

and

(GW

)

Available generation capacity in winter (23 – 24.5 GW)


ExisitingExisiting demand scenariosdemand scenarios

SINTEF 1996Energy +1% p.a.Peak power +1.2% p.a.

NOU 1998:11 ‘Green Brainpower’ +0.8% p.a.‘Climate Road’ +0.2-0.7% p.a.‘Steady Course’ +1.3% p.a.‘Long Journey Up’ +1.5% p.a.

Nordel area: +8% from 2000 to 2010


Supply options (1) Supply options (1)

Hydro power Politically and environmentally controversial

International electricity exchangeEuropean markets?Emissions trading and certificate markets?

Conventional gas powerPolitically and environmentally controversial

Gas power with CO2 removalHigh investments and reduced efficiency

Direct use of gasExpensive infrastructureEnvironmentally controversial


Supply options (2) Supply options (2)

Wind powerHigh potential, but not without problems

District heating with renewable energy sourcesExpensive infrastructure

Biomass and wasteCurrently only heat generationWaste is paid fuel!

HydrogenPromising technologyExpensiveNot an energy source!!


Demand side options (1)Demand side options (1)

Local energy studiesDemand forecastsResource mappingSupply and infrastructure

Local generationUtilize electricity and heat

Heat pumpsAlternative for heating, but increases dependence on electricity

Passive (thermal) solar systems

End-user flexibility / Demand side bidding


Demand side options (2)Demand side options (2)

Power intensive industries 30-35 TWhSelling power “back” to the marketIncreased efficiency (kWh/NOK)

Transport sectorMain source of CO2 in Norway

Building locations

New building codes and techniques Less effect than expectedSlow turnover of buildings


Climate issuesClimate issues

Global, regional (Europe) and national level

Kyoto protocolGHG emissions related to 1990 levelJoint international implementation possible

EU directivesPre-Kyoto GHG permit trading system limited to large thermal power plants

National directives and incentivesPre-Kyoto GHG permit trading system under development

Swedish green certificate market established May 2003Possible development to common Nordic market


Nordel Elspot prices Nordel Elspot prices 1995 1995 -- 2003 2003 WeeklyWeekly averageaverage (NOK/(NOK/MWhMWh))

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Week

NO

K/M

Wh

199519961998200020022003

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