transforming energy systems toward sustainable climate · nakicenovic 2013 #10 from 7 bn people, 3...
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Nebojša NakićenovićInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
ALPS International Symposium on:
RITE, Tokyo, Japan – 27 February, 2013
Transforming Energy Systems Toward Sustainable Climate
Major Challenges of Anthropocene
The industrial revolution led to unprecedented
levels of affluence and production, but also
inequity;
The unintended consequences demonstrate
significant impacts on our social and natural
environments transcending planetary boundaries.
Overcoming formidable global challenges requires
scientific foundations for understanding, formulating
effective response strategies and the multi-lateral
cooperation for action plans forward.
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making?
YSSP 20122
Primary Education+
Secondary Education+
Global Educational Attainment
Source: Lutz et al. (2007)
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Diffusion of Democracy
Source: Modelski & Perry, 2002; 2010
Participatory
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Diffusion of Democracy
Slavery Abolishment
Source: Naki & Rogner, 2012; Modelski & Perry, 2002; 2010
Participatory
Abolishment
1863
United States
of America
1906
China
1948
UN Declaration
of Human Rights
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES
B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization
World
Source: Grubler, 2007
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES
B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization
World, UK, BRICs
Source: Grubler, 2007
UK
BRICs
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Data: NASA 1880-2010
Earth is Warming
Global warming predicted(Sawyer, Nature 1972,
Broecker, Science 1975)
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140IPCC Category I
GEA - Efficiency
Global CO2 Emissions - (ATR) NoCCS, NoNuc
Peak by 2020
reductions of 35-75% by 2050
almost zero or negative in the long term
Global Carbon Emissions
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
2013 #10Nakicenovic
From 7 bn people, 3 bn cook with solid fuels
and 1.5 bn lack access to electricity
Efficiency and decarbonization bring multiple
benefits for health, security, climate change
Financing requirements are huge, but
achievable with right and sustained policies
Global Energy Challenges
2013 #11Nakicenovic
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
GEA, 2012
2013 #12NakicenovicUN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goals
● Universal Access to Modern Energy
● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
2013 #13Nakicenovic
Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density
13
2013 #14Nakicenovic Source: Hasni, 2011
Energy and Water from Deserts
2013 #15Nakicenovic
Estimated shale gas resource
14,803 TCF ≈ 15,600 EJ
2013 #16Nakicenovic
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Percentage of
tot
al pop
ula
tion
wit
h electricity access
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
USA
Mexico
Brazil
India
South Africa
China
Percentage of rur
al pop
ula
tion
wit
h electricity access
Electrification
Source: Pachauri et al, 2012
2013 #17Nakicenovic
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Percentage of
tot
al pop
ula
tion
wit
h electricity access
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
USA
Mexico
Brazil
India
South Africa
China
Baseline
Baseline
SE4All
SE4All
Sub-Saharan Africa
South AsiaUSA Rural
Percentage of rur
al pop
ula
tion
wit
h electricity access
Electrification
Source: Pachauri et al, 2012
2013 #18Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mikrochip
Kommerzielle
Luftfahrt
Fernseher
Vakuumröhre
Ottomotor
Elektrischer
MotorDampf-
maschine
Nuklear-
energie
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary Energy
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
2013 #19Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
~55% renewables by 2030
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Einsparungen
Andere E
Nuklear
Gas
Öl
Kohle
Biomasse
Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
2013 #20Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
~55% renewables by 2030
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Nuclear phase-out (policy)
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Einsparungen
Andere E
Nuklear
Gas
Öl
Kohle
Biomasse
Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
2013 #21Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Global Primary Energy
lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
2013 #22Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Limited Intermittent REN
Limited Bioenergy
Bio-CCS – “negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCS
Coal-CCS
Global Primary Energy
lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
2013 #23Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ
0
20
40
60
80
100Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
~50% renewables by 2030
Global Primary Energy
Sub-Saharan Africa
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
2013 #24Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary Energy
China
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ
0
50
100
150
200
250Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
~50% efficiency and decline of coal by 2030
#25
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Global Primärenergie
Energie Einsparungen (Effizienz,
Umwandlung und Verhalten)
~50% Verbesserung bis 2030
~50% EE bis 2030
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
2013 #26Nakicenovic
Merit-Order in Germany
2013 #27Nakicenovic
Policy Integration at the Urban Scale
Simulated energy use, urban settlement of 20,000, using the SimCity Model
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
#28
Drivers of Transformationslearning from the past
Vision – better future, normative perspectives
Abolition of slavery, Democracy, European Union
Crisis – “Gales of Creative Destruction”
The Great Depression, Structural adjustment programmers,
financial market reforms after 2008
Technology – Rapid innovation diffusion
Substitution of carriages by cars, IT-revolution
Knowledge – research-driven, precautionary
principle
Protection of the ozone layers, climate change mitigation
Jean-Jacques Rousseau
Social contract: “Man is born free,and everywherehe is in chains”
Legitimacy of
BAU eroding
Vision:
Sustainable
Future
→ Growing number of actors of change:
• green businesses
• cities
• civil society
• science
• IGOs (UNIDO etc.)
Sustainability Transformation
“Doing More with Less” within Boundaries
Time
Tra
ns
form
ati
on
Dif
fus
ion
Source: WBGU, 2011
→ Increasing problem perception
→ Policy regimes
→ Values and norms