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Transformer Report Ed5 2017

Power and Distribution Transformer

Market Report

Chapter Summaries

Table of Contents

Sample Pages

Edition 5

February 2017

StatPlan Energy Research

Transformer Report Chapter Summaries

2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Chapter 1 - THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET

Total demand for power and distribution transformers in 2016 is summarised with cagr in GVA and the

value in $ in real and nominal terms.

Chapter 2 – NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET

Analysis of demand and transformer stock by category; GSU, power transformers and distribution

transformers. Detailed shipment data for distribution transformers in the US is only available for the years

2009 by transformer type. Market drivers and utility investment are outlined. The manufacturing industry

is analysed in detail by transformer category; LPT, power, medium power transformers, liquid and dry type

MV transformers, LV dry type. Purchase influences and delivery channels are analysed. Efficiency are

outlined.

Chapter 3 - EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS

The European market for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex factory cost, for

generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country.

Regional overview of the European utility system is provided, with details of utilizes and network structure,

including voltage analysis. Efficiency measures are outlined. The changing network landscape of

Distributed Power and Smart Transformers are outlined. Over the last five years, the EU power sector has

been hit by a “perfect storm” of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors that have led to overcapacity

and low prices. MPS and market drivers are analysed. As a result, the region’s large publicly traded utilities

have, on average, lost half of their market capitalisation since 2008, destroying around EUR 500 billion of

shareholder value. Tis is outlined and analysed in detail focusing on the major utilizes affected. The

chapter contains detailed marketing sections for the major countries in Europe: France, Germany, Italy,

Spain, United Kingdom and Turkey, analysis of manufacturing facilities, especially the global leaders; ABB,

Siemens, Alstom, Schneider, Legrand.

Chapter 4 - CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET

The CIS market for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator

transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. The

chapter contains a separate report on the major CIS country, Russia.

Chapter 5 - MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS

The Middle Eastern and African markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory

cost, for generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every

country.


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Chapter 6 - ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS

The Asia Pacific markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for

generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country.

Separate detailed sections are included for China, India, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Japanese manufacturing

with its high overseas component is analysed. An interesting analysis is provided of investment as a % of

GDP, which shows clearly the dominance of the Asian countries and MENA with implications for markets.

Chapter 7 - LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS

The LAC markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator

transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. The two

largest market, Brazil and Mexico are analysed individually.

Chapter 8 - TRANSFORMER DEMAND AT EX-FACTORY AND INSTALLED COST

There are basically three levels at which the cost of equipment can be quoted; the ex-factory cost, the

retail price, the installed cost, and a fourth, capital expenditure (capex). This is analysed and a table of

mark-ups provided.

Chapter 9 - TRANSFORMER DEMAND IN MVA CAPACITY

Demand in in MVA capacity for the base year 2016, forecast annually to 2021 by region and 153 countries,

analysed within regions. by type - Generator Transformer, Power Transformer, Distribution Transformer.

Chapter 10 - UTILITY, GSU & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED

CAPACITY, NUMBERS AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT

A detail set of tables of Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity

(MVA), numbers of units and kVA/unit for distribution transformers, by country and ownership, World,

2016.

Chapter 11 - NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT

In the T&D industry, power and distribution transformers are one of the major components of equipment,

in addition to switchgear, cables and other items of equipment. Transformers are needed at all stages in

an electrical supply system when the voltage level changes, either up or down and the transport of power

goes through several stages between generation and final delivery to the consumer. These stages vary

according to the design of the system. The chapter outlines the various stages of the power networks in

detail and identifies where he different types of transformers are positioned, flagging regional differences

in practice.

Chapter 12 - THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050

Global installed transformer capacity has risen every year throughout the last and current centuries, from

22 GVA in 1900 to 45,188 GVA in 2016. The growth has been linear and it will continue as such until 2050.

At face value the steady rise in installed capacity suggests that annual demand for power and distribution

transformers will rise steadily every year on a linear path, but this is not the case. It was such an assumption


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as this which led to unsustainable surpluses of production capacity in the electro-technical industry in the

1990s and the demise of many hitherto respected and successful companies. Over 200 transformer

factories were closed between 1970 and 2000. Figures plot installed transformer capacity and annual

demand based on replacement cycles of 40 years for power transformers and 30 years for distribution

transformers. The long-term demand cycle of new and renewal does not equate to short term

expenditure. At present, if replacement had been carried out as needed demand would be going down.

However, replacement has been delayed for years, especially in the transmission sector and short term

market is increasing. The long- term demand cycle is a tool for long-term planning, while the short-term

expenditure projections are for immediate sales and marketing purposes.

Chapter 13 - TRANSFORMER: GENERATOR CAPACITY RATIOS - MVA: MW

The ratio of transformer capacity to generating capacity is a useful statistic because generating capacity is

comprehensively recorded whereas transformer capacity is less well documented. This enables us not only

to confirm snapshots of transformation capacity at any point in time but also to plot long term trends and

demand cycles for transformers based on the historical data for generating capacity. Power transformers

have along service lives, often 40 years or more, with some still in service aged 60-80 years and even a few

100 years old. It is therefore essential to plot long term installed capacity. There are variations between

countries, which are the result of different network designs and voltage classes.

Chapter 14 - SMART TRANSFORMERS

Challenges such as the aging power grid, increasing energy demands, spiraling cost of generating electricity and its cost on the environment all point toward the need for a grid that can produce and distribute energy more efficiently and reliably. The smart grid is being developed to deal with these problems. Transformers serve as a hub for collection and distribution of energy and are a key component of a successful transition to a smart grid. The smart grid concept ties together all aspects of the power system, from the plug in the wall at a house or office to a factory, to the distribution system, to power plants of all kinds. For the smart grid to work efficiently, there will be a need for smart transformers. As part of the distribution network, there are millions of transformers in the world; unfortunately, very few have any intelligence or communication capabilities that meet advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) standards or are parts of an advanced sensor infrastructure (ASI) network.

Chapter 15 - N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT

Redundancy is a crucial consideration in infrastructure design and has major implications for market size

calculations. The following factors are reviewed; the impact of network failure, transformer failure,

industrial reliability, network reliability, N-1 and the networks, contingency planning for network failure

and electricity distribution.

Chapter 16 - PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES

In recent years, the prices of electrotechnical products have been volatile due to variations in many factors

which affect them. Price trends are reviewed with commentary on PPI - Producer Price Index, industry

trends, production capacity, and the manufacturing input cost composition.


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Chapter 17 - THE POINT OF CONNECTION, CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION AND VOLTAGE

The generating mixture is changing and two aspects will impact on the transformer stock; increases in

distributed power and in renewables. The non-hydro renewable capacity consists mainly of wind power and

solar PV, which have grown rapidly in the last two decades. They will affect transformers because the power

generated enters the grid at different points and at different voltages.

Chapter 18 - ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS

Losses in transmission and distribution networks constitute the single biggest loss in any electricity system.

Approximately 70% of the losses in electricity networks occur in the distribution network with conductor

accounting for 42% of these losses and transformers about 30%. Transformers operate 24 hours/day, 365

days per year and have very long lifetimes, typically 40-50 years for power transformers and around 30

years for distribution transformers. Energy consumption during its service life is the dominant factor in

their life-cycle assessment environmental impact. The increased use of electronic equipment can lead to

increased harmonic currents and higher losses in transformers. Transformers are already efficient pieces

of equipment, with efficiency in the range of 95 to 99 The issue is discussed and details of mandatory

efficiency standards around the world supplied.

Chapter 19 - TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Manufacturers of larger power transformers are easier to identify and their production capacity is either

published or can be estimated. Most countries have numbers of small local producers of distribution

transformers which are sold to local distribution utilities and are poorly documented. Some large countries

have a lot of these companies, notably China, India, Europe and the United States. China, Europe and the

United States have large numbers of distribution utilities, India fewer. The chapter surveys the global

situation with detailed reports for the major countries.

Chapter 20 - LOGISTICS

Power transformers, especially GSU and quad boosters, are among the largest and heaviest pieces of

equipment that must be transported, sometimes over long distances. Because of their size and the small

numbers in service there are only a few manufacturers of the largest units in the world, thereby

necessitating long and complex logistics. This is increasingly mentioned by vendors as a major cost and a

consideration in locating manufacturing sites. It is not our purpose to provide a detailed survey of logistics

in this report but to give a flavour of what is an increasingly important issue of the complexities of delivery

of large, heavy equipment.

Chapter 21 – ELECTRIFICATION

The impact of increased electrification on future markets is described with its advantages in terms of

electrical goods and aspirations, which vary according to the sophistication of the electrical market in a

country. Factors driving the increase in numbers of electrical connections are assessed with tables of

electrification levels for every country, from 1950 to 2050.

METHODOLOGY

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Transformer Report

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 15

The power transformer market ........................................................................................................... 15

United States ....................................................................................................................................... 16

Europe .................................................................................................................................................. 17

CIS ........................................................................................................................................................ 19

Middle East and Africa ......................................................................................................................... 19

Asia Pacific ........................................................................................................................................... 19

China .................................................................................................................................................... 20

Japan .................................................................................................................................................... 21

India ..................................................................................................................................................... 21

Korea .................................................................................................................................................... 22

Taiwan .................................................................................................................................................. 22

LAC ....................................................................................................................................................... 22

Long term demand cycle ..................................................................................................................... 23

Transformer: generator capacity ratios - MVA - MW .......................................................................... 23

Channels to market .............................................................................................................................. 24

Transformer types ............................................................................................................................... 24

Efficiency transformers ........................................................................................................................ 25

Smart transformers .............................................................................................................................. 25

Trends in the generation mix ............................................................................................................... 26

Manufacturing capacity, global and by region .................................................................................... 26

Price trend ........................................................................................................................................... 27

Redundancy ......................................................................................................................................... 27

Logistics ................................................................................................................................................ 28

Electrification ....................................................................................................................................... 28

1. THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET ................................................................. 29

2. NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET ...................................................................................... 32

MARKET REVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 32

Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 33

Composition of demand ...................................................................................................................... 34

The utility market in the United States ................................................................................................ 35

Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 35

Utility investment ................................................................................................................................ 36

Manufacturing industry review - facilities ........................................................................................... 37

Power transformers ............................................................................................................................. 37

USA plant ............................................................................................................................................. 38

NAFTA suppliers in Canada and Mexico .............................................................................................. 38

Large power transformers (LPT) .......................................................................................................... 38

Medium power transformers .............................................................................................................. 41

Distribution transformers .................................................................................................................... 41

MV distribution transformer ............................................................................................................... 41

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Liquid immersed .................................................................................................................................. 41

Dry type ................................................................................................................................................ 41

LV distribution transformers ................................................................................................................ 42

Dry type ................................................................................................................................................ 42

Purchase considerations and delivery channels .................................................................................. 42

National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) ...................................................................... 43

CEE- Consortium for Energy Efficiency ................................................................................................. 43

MEPS standards ................................................................................................................................... 43

3. EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS ................................................................................................. 45

REGIONAL MARKET .................................................................................................................................. 45

Regional overview of the European utility system .............................................................................. 48

Transformer voltages in the utility network and industry ................................................................... 49

High efficiency transformers ................................................................................................................ 50

A changing network landscape - Distributed Power – smart transformers ........................................ 50

European utility crisis ........................................................................................................................... 51

Market Drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 53

MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 54

European manufacturing industry review ........................................................................................... 54

FRANCE .................................................................................................................................................... 56


Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 56

Market leaders – Alstom, Schneider, development in France ............................................................. 56

GERMANY................................................................................................................................................. 58


Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 58

Market leader - Siemens ...................................................................................................................... 59

German utility crisis ............................................................................................................................. 59

Transformer manufacturers................................................................................................................. 60

ITALY......................................................................................................................................................... 61


Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 61


SPAIN ........................................................................................................................................................ 62


Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 62


UNITED KINGDOM ................................................................................................................................... 63


Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 63


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Table of Contents

TURKEY .................................................................................................................................................... 64


Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 65

Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................ 65

4. CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET ................................................................................................................ 66

RUSSIA ..................................................................................................................................................... 66


Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 66


5. MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS ........................................................................ 68

6. ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS .............................................................................................. 71

REGIONAL OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 71

Investment as a % of GDP .................................................................................................................... 74

CHINA ....................................................................................................................................................... 76


Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 77

MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 78

Manufacturing industry review ........................................................................................................... 78

JAPAN ....................................................................................................................................................... 80


Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 81

MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 81


Overseas production............................................................................................................................ 83

INDIA ........................................................................................................................................................ 83


Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 84

MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 85


KOREA ...................................................................................................................................................... 87


Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 87


TAIWAN ................................................................................................................................................... 88


Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 89


7. LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS ............................................................................................................. 90

BRAZIL ...................................................................................................................................................... 92


Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 92


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MEXICO .................................................................................................................................................... 93


Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 94

MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 94


8. TRANSFORMER DEMAND AT EX-FACTORY AND INSTALLED COST ...................................................... 96

GLOBAL DEMAND ................................................................................................................................ 96

NORTH AMERICA ................................................................................................................................. 96

EUROPE AND CIS .................................................................................................................................. 97

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ................................................................................................................... 98

ASIA PACIFIC ......................................................................................................................................... 98

LAC ....................................................................................................................................................... 99

9. TRANSFORMER DEMAND IN MVA CAPACITY .................................................................................... 100

GLOBAL DEMAND .................................................................................................................................. 100

NORTH AMERICA ................................................................................................................................... 100

EUROPE AND CIS .................................................................................................................................... 101

MIDDLE EAST.......................................................................................................................................... 104

AFRICA .................................................................................................................................................... 105

ASIA PACIFIC ........................................................................................................................................... 107

LAC ......................................................................................................................................................... 110

10. UTILITY, GSU & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED CAPACITY,

AND NUMBER AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT ............................... 112

11. NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT ............................................................................................... 123

THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS ......................................................................................................... 123

Stage 1 ................................................................................................................................................ 123

Stage 2 ................................................................................................................................................ 123

Stage 3 ................................................................................................................................................ 123

Stage 4 ................................................................................................................................................ 123

Network Configurations for distribution - Radial, Loop and Network systems ................................. 124

INDUSTRY ........................................................................................................................................... 125

Review of regional utility network practices ..................................................................................... 125

The link from medium voltage to low voltage ................................................................................... 125

North America .................................................................................................................................... 126

Japan .................................................................................................................................................. 127

Europe ................................................................................................................................................ 127

Types of transformer ......................................................................................................................... 128

Liquid dielectric transformers ............................................................................................................ 129

Dry type transformers ........................................................................................................................ 129

Gas filled transformers....................................................................................................................... 130

Evolution of power transformers by size and capacity ...................................................................... 130

Ownership of power and distribution transformers .......................................................................... 131

Ownership of GSU transformers ........................................................................................................ 131

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12. THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050 ............................................................................... 133

INSTALLED CAPACITY ............................................................................................................................. 133

INSTALLED CAPACITY VERSUS DEMAND ................................................................................................ 133

The China Factor ................................................................................................................................ 136

13. TRANSFORMER: GENERATOR CAPACITY RATIOS - MVA: MW ....................................................... 139

14. SMART TRANSFORMERS ................................................................................................................ 145

15. N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT ............................................... 148

Network failure .................................................................................................................................. 148

Transformer failure ............................................................................................................................ 148

Transformer age ................................................................................................................................. 148

Tap changer ........................................................................................................................................ 149

Windings ............................................................................................................................................ 149

Core .................................................................................................................................................... 149

Tank .................................................................................................................................................... 149

Solid insulation ................................................................................................................................... 149

Cooler ................................................................................................................................................. 149

Oil insulation ...................................................................................................................................... 149

Bushings ............................................................................................................................................. 150

Industrial reliability ............................................................................................................................ 150

Network reliability ............................................................................................................................. 151

N-1 and the networks ........................................................................................................................ 151

Electricity distribution ........................................................................................................................ 152

Electricity transmission ...................................................................................................................... 152

Massive size of a power transformer ................................................................................................. 153

Transformer/generator ratios and redundancy ................................................................................ 154

Generation ......................................................................................................................................... 154

Transmission ...................................................................................................................................... 154

Distribution ........................................................................................................................................ 154

16. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES .................................................... 155

PPI - Producer Price Index .................................................................................................................. 155

USA ..................................................................................................................................................... 155

EU ....................................................................................................................................................... 156

China .................................................................................................................................................. 157

Japan .................................................................................................................................................. 157

Korea .................................................................................................................................................. 158

Demand for transformers - market and industry trends ................................................................... 158

Production capacity ........................................................................................................................... 158

Production capacity of raw materials ................................................................................................ 158

Production capacity of manufactured equipment ............................................................................. 159

Manufacturing input cost composition ............................................................................................. 159

Composition of manufacturing inputs ............................................................................................... 159

Input costs - raw materials................................................................................................................. 160

Metal consumption ............................................................................................................................ 160

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Table of Contents

Steel ................................................................................................................................................... 160

Electrical Steel .................................................................................................................................... 160

The electrical steel market ................................................................................................................. 162

Electrical steel producers ................................................................................................................... 163

Copper and Aluminium ...................................................................................................................... 163

Copper ................................................................................................................................................ 164

Aluminium .......................................................................................................................................... 164

Transformer oil .................................................................................................................................. 165

Input costs – labour ........................................................................................................................... 166

Input costs – energy ........................................................................................................................... 168

17. THE POINT OF CONNECTION, CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION AND VOLTAGE ........... 169

Trends in the generation mix ............................................................................................................. 169

The impact of generation developments on transformation technology ......................................... 169

Decentralised power .......................................................................................................................... 172

Czech Republic ................................................................................................................................... 173

Germany ............................................................................................................................................. 174

Italy .................................................................................................................................................... 175

Spain ................................................................................................................................................... 176

18. ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS ....................................................... 178

MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards) ............................................................................ 179

United States ...................................................................................................................................... 179

Canada ............................................................................................................................................... 179

Mexico ................................................................................................................................................ 179

European Union ................................................................................................................................. 179

Australia ............................................................................................................................................. 180

Japan .................................................................................................................................................. 180

China .................................................................................................................................................. 180

India ................................................................................................................................................... 180

Korea .................................................................................................................................................. 180

Development of a new technology - amorphous core transformers ................................................ 181

The market for AMTs ......................................................................................................................... 182

Amorphous metal ribbon manufacturers .......................................................................................... 182

Japan .................................................................................................................................................. 182

China .................................................................................................................................................. 183

India ................................................................................................................................................... 183

Taiwan ................................................................................................................................................ 184

Other .................................................................................................................................................. 184

HTS –high temperature superconductor transformers ..................................................................... 184

19. TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY ....................................................................................... 185

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, GLOBAL AND BY REGION ................................................................... 185

North America (United States, Canada) ............................................................................................. 186

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Transformer Report

Mexico ................................................................................................................................................ 186

Latin America (excluding Mexico) ...................................................................................................... 187

China .................................................................................................................................................. 187

India ................................................................................................................................................... 189

Korea .................................................................................................................................................. 190

Europe ................................................................................................................................................ 190

CIS ...................................................................................................................................................... 190

Africa .................................................................................................................................................. 191

Global balance of production capacity and demand ......................................................................... 191

20. LOGISTICS ....................................................................................................................................... 192

Rail transport ..................................................................................................................................... 192

Road transport ................................................................................................................................... 194

Alternative solutions .......................................................................................................................... 197

21. ELECTRIFICATION ........................................................................................................................... 198

Regional growth characteristics ......................................................................................................... 202

Sub-Saharan Africa ............................................................................................................................. 202

Asia ..................................................................................................................................................... 202

MENA ................................................................................................................................................. 203

Latin America ..................................................................................................................................... 203

Europe ................................................................................................................................................ 203

CIS ...................................................................................................................................................... 203

North America .................................................................................................................................... 203

The impact of electrification on the electrical supply industry ......................................................... 203

22. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................. 205

Short term demand forecast.............................................................................................................. 205

Long term demand cycle .................................................................................................................... 205

Demand cycles and the market ......................................................................................................... 206

StatPlan Energy Databases ................................................................................................................ 206

Transformation capacity .................................................................................................................... 207

Transformer Report Sample Pages

13

1. THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER

MARKET

Total demand for power and distribution transformers in 2016 is estimated at XXXX, rising by a cagr of

XXX% to XXXX GVA in 2020. The value in 2016 is $ XX billion, increasing in nominal values by a cagr of XXX%

to $XXX billion in 2020.

Growth in real terms will be fastest in the Middle East at XXX% cagr, Asia Pacific with XXX% and Sub-

Saharan Africa with XXX%. North America will grow at a cagr of XXX% and Europe XXX%. The lowest growth

rates will be in ……………….. In 2016 power transformer sales will amount to XXXX GVA and distribution

transformers XXXX GVA, totaling XXXX GVA.

Over the five-year period both power transformers and distribution transformers will achieve capacity

growth of XXX% a year.

The value per MVA will increase by a cagr of XXX% in real terms up to 2020 and $XXX% in nominal terms.

Table 1: Power and distribution transformer demand, MVA and $ in real and nominal values

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 cagr

Value Nominal $ million

Value real $ million

Total MVA

$/MVA nominal

$/MVA real

With surplus production capacity and falling metal prices, transformer prices


14

Transformer stock

There are plentiful statistics about distribution transformers in the United States, including historical tables

which enable us to plot the development of the distribution transformer stock over time in numbers and

capacity and so to chart the development of transformers in size. There is a lack of information for power

transformers.

Table 2: US power and distribution transformer stock, 2016

MVA Number

PTs

DTs

Sources: DOE, various reports, StatPlan estimates

There are over XXXXX generators and XXXXXX power transformers in the United States.

2. EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS

REGIONAL MARKET

The European market for power and distribution transformers in 2016 is estimated at $XXX billion, rising

to $XXX billion in 2021. Real growth of transformer demand in Europe will average XXX% compared with

nominal growth of XXX%. Turkey is the fastest growing market with real growth of XXX% and nominal

growth of XXX%, caused by high inflation. Germany, the UK and France are the fastest growing in the EU

in real terms with XXX%, XXX% and XXX% respectively. All three markets have strong renewables growth,

especially Germany, and investment in transmission to serve the renewables base and to replace aged

infrastructure.

Table 3: Europe, total transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million

All transformers 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 cagr

EUROPE

Albania

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

Croatia

Czech Republic

Denmark


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4. TRANSFORMER DEMAND AT EX-FACTORY AND

INSTALLED COST

There are basically three levels at which the cost of equipment can be quoted; the ex-factory cost, the

retail price, the installed cost, and a fourth, capital expenditure (capex), which includes external costs such

as legal fees, engineering etc. It is important to specify the point in the purchase transaction to which the

cost data applies as there is a wide range between the factory cost and the final installed cost in the

customer’s network, and even wider if comparing ex-factory cost with capex. Manufacturer selling price

plus

markups……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………….

Liquid-immersed power transformers are usually purchased by

……………………………………………………………………………………….

Distribution dry-type transformers are less demanding in their installation process ……………………………………………………………………………………………..

GLOBAL DEMAND

Table 4: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost, World, 2016, $ million

Ex-factory cost $ million Installed cost $ million GSU PT DT Total GSU PT DT Total

World

World exc. China

5. TRANSFORMER DEMAND IN MVA CAPACITY

GLOBAL DMAND

The global transformer market will show high growth from XXXX GVA in 2016 at XXX% over the next five

years to 2020 to XXXX GVA…………………………………………………………………………………………

Table 5: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, MVA, World, 2016-2021

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 cagr

Power and distribution transformers World World exc. China

Power transformers World World exc. China

Distribution transformers World World exc. China


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6. UTILITY, GSU & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND

DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED CAPACITY,

NUMBERS AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION

TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT

Table 6: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by

country and ownership, World, 2016

Power transformer capacity Distribution transformer capacity All trf capacity

GSU GSU Utility Industry Total PTs GSU Utility Industry Total DTs PTs + DTs

≥ 220 kV < 220 kV < 35 kV

MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA

Ed 5 2016 6,484,580

Ed 4 2014

Table 7: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and

ownership, World, 2016

Distribution transformers Average capacity per transformers

Utility Industry Total Utility Industry Total

Number Number Number kVA/trf kVA/trf kVA/trf

Ed 5 2016

Ed 4 2014

Table 8: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by

country and ownership, North America, 2016

Power transformer capacity Distribution transformer capacity All trf capacity

GSU GSU Utility Industry Total PTs GSU Utility Industry Total DTs PTs + DTs

≥ 220 kV < 220 kV < 35 kV MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA

USA

Canada

North America

Table 9: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and

ownership North America, 2016

Distribution transformers Average capacity per transformers

Utility Industry Total Utility Industry Total

Number Number Number kVA/trf kVA/trf kVA/trf

USA

Canada

North America


17

7. THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050

INSTALLED CAPACITY

Global installed transformer capacity has risen every year throughout the last and current centuries,

from XXX GVA in 1900 to XXXX GVA in 2016. The growth has been linear and it will continue as such until

it……………………….

Growth of installed transformer capacity is linear, but demand for equipment is cyclical.

Figure 1: Global installed transformation capacity and demand 1900 - 2050, GVA


18

16. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING

TRANSFORMER PRICES

The prices of electrical equipment have been volatile over the years and will continue to be so. Many

factors contribute to this. The principal factors influencing transformer prices are:

1. Demand for transformers, market and industry trends,

2. Production capacity,

3. Input prices of;

raw materials

energy

labour

4. The economic and financial climate.

These factors interact on each other; e.g. demand drives up input costs, which drive up the prices of

finished goods, which can eventually depress demand. Each of these factors is reviewed in this chapter.

We predict that demand for transformers will ………………………………………….

transformer report ed5 2017 - statplan energy research · analysis of demand and transformer stock...

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