Trailing Behind, Moving Forward

An Educational Priority

High school reform has been on the national radar screen for nearly a decade

Staying in the public eye

♦ No Child Left Behind

♦ Small schools movement

♦ Graduation rates

♦ College and career readiness

♦ Driver of economic growth

♦ Common core

Exploring the Issues

Moving the Needle

As a nation we’ve set ambitious goals that will require major changes in rates of graduation and the quality of a high school education

♦ President Obama

“I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of

higher education or career training.”

♦ The Administration’s ESEA Blueprint

“Together, we must achieve a new goal, that by 2020, the United

States will once again lead the world in college completion.”

♦ Lumina Foundation’s Big Goal (Goal 2025)

Increase the proportion of Americans with high-quality degrees and credentials to 60 percent by the year 2025

Diplomas Count 2012

Trailing Behind, Moving Forward

The 2012 edition of the report explores the experiences of the American education’s fastest-

growing group: Latino Students

The nation’s educational and economic future may hinge on the ability to meet the needs of this diverse population

But, Latinos lag behind on many indicators of success and face a range of challenges, from economic to cultural

Inside Diplomas Count 2012

Diplomas Count examines the state of schooling for Latino students, the challenges they face, and lessons from schools and districts successfully serving this population

The report's journalism examines

♦ The “Demographic Imperative”

♦ Impact of new immigration laws

♦ Early foundations for success

♦ Transitions to college

♦ Barriers faced by Latinas

♦ Embracing diversity

Also: Profiles of major Latino heritage groups

Research

Highlights Diplomas Count 2012 features original research

and analysis from the EPE Research Center

♦ Graduation Rates • State of the nation

• Trends and gaps

• 50-state results

• 50 largest districts

♦ Focus on Latinos • Detailed graduation patterns

• Districts beating the odds

♦ State Policy • Progress on uniform rates

• What it takes to graduate

Profile of a Population

Demographic and

Educational Imperatives

What’s in Name?

A Note on Terminology

Hispanic or Latino?

♦ No universal agreement within or beyond Latino community

Census Bureau

♦ A person is of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin if the person’s origin (ancestry) is from Spanish-speaking countries of the Caribbean or Central or South America, or from Spain.

Pew Hispanic Center

♦ Slight preference to identify with countries of origin rather than broad population labels (e.g., Latino, Hispanic)

Our approach:

♦ “Latino” and “Hispanic” used interchangeably

♦ Identify countries of origin/heritage for students and families

Demographic Basics

Hispanics comprise 51 million (16%) of the nation’s 310 million residents

Native American

1% Asian 5%

Hispanic 16%

Black 12%

White 64%

Other, two or more

2%

White 64%

Other, two or more

33%

Race and Ethnicity (residential population)

Racial Identification (among Hispanics)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

Total Population (by age)

A Young Population

The Hispanic population is significantly younger than the population at large

0.0

%

5.0

%

10.0

%

15.0

%

515

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

Hispanic Population (by age)

median age 37 >

< median age 27

Total Population (by age) Hispanic Population (by age)

Demographic Shift in Progress

By 2050, Hispanics will comprise 30% of the U.S. population

♦ Non-Hispanic Whites will fall below 50% around 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Perc

ent

of popula

tion

-White -Hispanic

-Black -Asian -Two or more -Nat. Am.

The Educational Challenge

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Total Nat. Am. Asian Hispanic Black White

Perc

ent

of gro

up (

ages

25-6

4)

B.A. or more

Some Coll.

H.S. or equiv.

Less than H.S.

Hispanics have the lowest levels of educational attainment of any major racial or ethnic group

♦ Nearly two-thirds of Hispanics have a H.S. education or less

Education and Immigration

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Hispanic (all) Native born Immigrant

Perc

ent

of gro

up (

ages

25-6

4)

B.A. or more

Some Coll.

H.S. or equiv.

Less than H.S.

Hispanics have the lowest levels of educational attainment of any major racial or ethnic group

♦ Nearly two-thirds of Hispanics have a H.S. education or less

Heritage Diversity

Hispanics can trace their heritage to dozens of countries and world regions

♦ But, nearly two-thirds claim Mexican roots

Mexican 65%

Puerto Rican 9%

Cuban 4%

Salvadoran 4%

Dominican 3%

Other 15%

Colombian 1.9% Honduran 1.4 Spaniard 1.4 Ecuadorian 1.3 Peruvian 1.2 Nicaraguan 0.7 Argentinean 0.5 Venezuelan 0.5 Panamanian 0.3 Chilean 0.3 Costa Rican 0.3 Bolivian 0.2 Uruguayan 0.1 Paraguayan <0.1 Other Central Am. 0.1 Other South Am. 0.1 All Other 3.1

Implications for the States

Better meeting the educational needs of Latino students is a critical challenge for the nation as a whole

But

From a policy perspective, the nature of those challenges will vary considerably from state to state, due to differences in

♦ Size of Hispanic population

♦ Heritage, cultural, educational background of a state’s Latino groups

♦ Concentration of recent immigrants (as well as country of origin)

Uneven Population Distribution

School-age Hispanics are concentrated largely in West, Southwest, and Florida

New Immigration to New Regions

Recent immigration has been heaviest in parts of country with historically small Hispanic populations

Latino Students Making Progress

Performance for Latinos on a wide range of educational outcomes has improved over the past few decades

However,

Latino students still fall below the national average on most indicators, and trail well behind their White and Asian peers

NAEP Trendlines Rising

Latinos have seen steady and significant gains since the early 1990s

♦ But scores for Whites have also improved

270

293 White

237

262 Black

246

270 Latino

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

1990 1992 1996 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

NA

EP

Ma

th 8

th G

rad

e (

sca

le s

co

re)

Coursetaking Converges

White-Latino gap in higher-level coursetaking has been cut in half since 1990

32

59 White

26

57 Black

22

55 Latino

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 2005 2009

Perc

ent co

mple

ting m

idle

vel or rigoro

us

curr

iculu

m

Graduation in the

United States

Upward Trend Continues

Updated Graduation Analysis

Diplomas Count 2012 features results for the public high school class of 2009, the most recent year of data available

Data source

♦ Common Core of Data (CCD), U.S. Department of Education

♦ Annual census of public schools and districts

Calculation method

♦ Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)

♦ Widely reported, independent source of information

Comprehensive data

♦ Consistent rates available from national to local level

Strengths and limitations

Graduation Rate Keeps Climbing

CLASS OF 2009

National graduation rate:

Second consecutive annual increase after several years of decline and stagnation

Analysis shows evidence of widespread improvements over past decade

♦ Nation as a whole

♦ Most states

♦ All major demographic groups

73.4%

The Long View

1870

2.0%

1900

6.4%

1940

50.8%

1969

77.1%

2009

73.4%

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SOURCES: Historical data: U.S. Department of Education Contemporary data: EPE Research Center

At 73 percent for the class of 2009, the

nation’s graduation rate is at its highest

point since the late 1970s.

Latinos Driving Gains

Broad-based improvements found for past decade

♦ Strongest gains for Latino and Black students

All Students 73.4

American Indian 53.1

Asian 80.5

Hispanic 63.0

Black 58.7

White 78.8

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Gra

du

ati

on

-ra

te p

erc

en

tag

e

1.1 Million Dropouts

1.1 million in context

● 1.1 million nongraduates each year

● 6,000 students lost every school day

● 1 student disappears every 29 seconds

4.0 Million 9th Graders in 2008-09

2.9 Million Graduates in 2012

1.1 Million Nongraduates in 2012

State-by-State

State graduation rates vary tremendously around the national average of 73.4%

Top states (80% or higher)

♦ New Jersey (1st)

♦ North Dakota

♦ Wisconsin

♦ Minnesota

♦ Iowa

♦ Pennsylvania

Bottom states (60% or lower)

♦ New Mexico

♦ Nevada

♦ District of Columbia (51st)

52.4

59.2

59.4

61.7

62.2

62.7

64.0

67.9

68.0

68.1

69.2

69.2

69.3

69.5

70.4

70.5

70.6

71.2

71.3

71.5

71.5

72.1

72.3

72.3

73.1

73.6

73.9

74.1

75.3

75.8

75.8

76.0

76.0

76.4

76.4

76.6

77.4

77.4

77.9

78.4

78.4

78.4

79.1

79.1

79.3

80.5

80.5

82.6

83.8

85.9

87.4

73.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

District of ColumbiaNevada

New MexicoSouth Carolina

MississippiGeorgia

LouisianaDelaware

North CarolinaWashington

HawaiiAlabama

AlaskaSouth Dakota

FloridaKentuckyArkansas

IllinoisCalifornia

TexasWest Virginia

IdahoArizona

MaineOregon

OklahomaWyomingMichigan

Rhode IslandIndiana

TennesseeConnecticut

VirginiaColorado

OhioNebraskaVermontMontanaMaryland

UtahKansas

New YorkNew HampshireMassachusetts

MissouriPennsylvania

IowaMinnesotaWisconsin

North DakotaNew Jersey

National Average

Graduation-rate percentage (class of 2008)

Focus on

Latinos

Minorities, Males Most At-Risk

Graduation rates are well below the national average for:

♦ Racial and ethnic minorities

♦ Male students

♦ Males from historically underserved groups

73.4

63.0 58.7

53.1

69.6

58.1

51.9 49.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Latinos Overrepresented

Hispanics comprise 27% of the nation’s 1.1 million nongraduates but only 21% of the student population

Native American

2%

Asian 3%

Hispanic 27%

Black 27%

White 41%

Percent of nongraduates (by group)

A Concentrated Crisis

310,000 Hispanic Dropouts

District Context

California and Texas product half the nation’s Latino dropouts

Just 25 districts account for 37% of dropouts

But …

Schools, districts, and communities across the nation are beating the odds

A special analysis for Diplomas Count identifies 38 school systems that are exceeding expectations for Latino graduation

♦ Lompoc Unified, Calif.

♦ Ceres Unified, Calif.

♦ Merced Union, Calif.

♦ Yuma Union, Ariz.

♦ Providence, R.I.

♦ and Others

The State

of State Policy

The 2012 Policy Survey

Each year, the EPE Research Center surveys the 50 states and District of Columbia about their policies in a wide range of areas

Meticulous administration and vetting of surveys

Research Center survey and outside sources provide information about:

♦ Defining college and work readiness

♦ Coursetaking requirements for a diploma

♦ High school completion credentials

♦ High school exit exams

♦ Implementation of federal accountability for graduation rates

Defining College Readiness

Currently, 37 states define what it means to be ready for college

♦ Increase from 11 in 2007

♦ Five additional states have definition in progress

11

15

20 23

33

37

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Fewer Completion Options?

States have offered a variety of routes to high school completion as well as a range of credentials for those exceeding and falling short of standard requirements

Class of 2012

♦ 23 states offer advanced diploma or recognition

♦ 26 states offer alternative credential

♦ 18 states offer ONLY a standard diploma

Analysis suggests states may be reducing the number of credentials offered to high school completers

♦ For class of 2011, 13 states offered only standard diploma

What it Takes to Graduate

Requirements for the Class of 2012

EPE Research Center review of other state policies shows relatively little change from prior year

Coursetaking for diploma

♦ 21 credits in average state

High school exit exams

♦ 24 states with exit exam for Class of 2012

♦ All but 3 of those states have an alternative route or appeals process

A Common Formula

Online Resources

From

Education Week and the EPE Research Center

Diplomas Count 2012

Full report plus Web-only features

♦ www.edweek.org/go/dc12

Graduation Briefs for States and Nation ♦ www.edweek.org/go/dc12/sgb

Education Counts ♦ www.edcounts.org

EdWeek Maps

♦ maps.edweek.org

With support from the Carnegie

Corporation of New York and the

Charles Stewart Mott Foundation

Contact the EPE Research Center

Christopher B. Swanson

Vice President, Editorial Projects in Education by email: rcinfo@epe.org

Sterling C. Lloyd by phone: 301-280-3100

Senior Research Associate, EPE Research Center

Trailing Behind, Moving Forward