2016 Traffic Forecast

Dubai International Airport

By : Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant

Dubai International Airport (DXB)DXB is the primary airport serving Dubai,

United Arab Emirates and is the world's

busiest airport by international traffic

passengers. It is also the 3rd busiest

airport in the world by passenger traffic,

the 6th busiest cargo airport in world and

the busiest hub for the Airbus A380. In

2014, DXB handled 70.5 million

passengers, 2.37 million tonnes of cargo

and registered 357,339 aircraft movements.

It is situated in the Al Garhoud district, 2.5

nautical miles (4.6 km; 2.9 mi) east of

Dubai and spread over an area of 2,900

hectares (7,200 acres) of land. The airport

is operated by the Dubai Airports

Company and is the home base of Dubai's

international airlines, Emirates and

flydubai; the Emirates hub is the largest

airline hub in the Middle East; Emirates

now handles 64% of all passenger traffic

and accounts for about 50% of all aircraft

movements at the airport. Dubai Airport is

also the base for low-cost carrier, Flydubai

which handles 10.7% of passenger traffic

at DXB. The airport consists of three

terminals and has a total capacity of 75

million passengers annually. Terminal 3 is

the second largest building in the world by

floor space and the largest airport terminal

in the world. (wiki)

Airport Performance Factors:

Each airport in world, has its own

performance monitoring system. While a

general practice, most of the airports in the

world report three factors that monitored

their business in the airport as Travelling

Passengers, Aircraft Cycles and Air-cargo

Shipment.

Based on their Goals and Targets, the Key

Performance Indicators (KPIs) are

developed, which is consequently the

foundation of Airport Performance System.

So setting Targets ( Forecasting ) is an

important task for the management to

enhance the airport planning, business and

activities.

Airport Forecasting Model: Airport Forecasting can be derived fairly

by applying two techniques, first defining

the right and fair value of coefficient of

determination, Second Minimizing the

control bond for the limits of signal

tracking, by addressing the following

constrains,

R2 greater than 80%, and Signal Tracking

is in the bond of -4 and +4.i.e Max-Min

signal tracking.

The seasonality

patterned for

Airport traffic

Model define

the following

periods /events

and shocks as:

Summer Season, Winter Season, Back to

School , Amarea and Haje, Crises Time,

Olympics Games, Shows and Conferences

Expected Number of Passengers For 2016 = 84,555,341 Growth Rate = 8.82%

Dubai International Airport – Forecast 2016:

1- Basic Data:

The basic analysis period is 3 years,

started from October 2012 to

September 2015, for Passengers, as

it is reported by the web site of

Dubai International Airport.

2- Forecasting 2016

The forecasting results are almost fair as

R2= 86.4 and Signal Tracking max/min

are ± 5.33

Summary:

Three years data base - number of

passengers are evaluated from (Oct. 2012 -

Sept. 2015), in spite of the data

discrepancy and certain shocks, the model

is fairly fitted (R2 = 86.4 ). While the

signal tracking analysis shows some

deviations, the expected numbers of

passengers for 2016 will be 84,555,342

passengers. The annual growth will be

8.82 % , three months shows a peak effect

in the year, The above table shows the

forecasted figures of 2016 with monthly,

Quarterly, and Half-year.

The monthly growth rate is high except in

July ( - 3.47 ) and weak in May ( 1.61 )

while the highest one is in Mar (11.08). ■