Towards to MRV in Indonesian

Transport Sector

Presented by :Hikmat Hidayat Putu

& Fahni Mauludi

Ministry of TransportationIndonesia

Photo : Hikmat (2011)

February 2011

OutlookCurrent Climate Change Progress Potential Mitigation Actions National Action Plan Local Action Plan BaU Approach Achievement of DGLTConclusion

Outline

Outlook

Sumber : ICCSR 2010 &

DNPI 2010

Proportion of Fuel consumption in transport sector

in 2005

Transport sector is Indonesia's largest consumer of primary energy (especially oil) 48% In 2005

CO2 emission from transport sector about 23%from energy sector (2005)

CO2 emission in 2010 67 Milion ton

The share of primary energy transportation sector (especially fuel) in 2005 : Road 90,7% Water 6,9% Air 2,4% Train <1%

Climate Change Progress

26% 26+15=41%

Our efffort Our effort and foreign funding

Presidential Decree No. 61/2011

NAP-GHG

Presidential Decree No. 71/2011

GHG Inventory

Forestry, Peat land

Farming

Energy and Transportation

Industry

Waste

Presidential Decree 61/2011

NATIONAL ACTION PLAN

ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTORS Emission Reduction Target (26%): 0.038 (Giga Tonne) CO2e 0,008 GT

(Transportation) Emission Reduction Target (41%): 1.056 (Giga Tonne) CO2e

Period 2010-2020

ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTORPolicies taken to support the NAP – GHG/RAN-GRK : 1. Increased energy saving 2. The use of cleaner fuels (fuel switching) 3. Enhancement of new and renewable energy (NRE) utilization 4. Utilization of clean technologies for both power generation and transportation equipment 5. Development of a low emission, sustainable and environmentally friendly national mass transport

Strategies: 1. Conserve the final energy both through the application of cleaner and more efficient technologies

and through reduction in the consumption of non-renewable energy (fossil) 2. Encourage the use of new and renewable energy in small and medium scales 3. (Avoid) – reduce the travel needs, particularly in city areas (trip demand management), through

land use management, reduce travel activities and unnecessary distances 4. (Shift) – shift from using private vehicles (transportation facilities with high energy consumption)

to low-carbon transportation pattern, such as non-motorized, public, or water transportation

Policies and Strategies

Core Activites and Supported Activities

AVOID

IMPROVE

Car labelling

NMT Infrastructure

ParkingManagement

Eco-Driving Campaign

ITS

CNG Switch

Traffic Impact Control (TIC)

Emission standard

Congestion charge

BRT

Public Transport Revitalize

ModernLogistics SHIFT

Local Action Plan

Local Action Plan

RAD-GRKLocal Action

Plan

2. Baseline GHG Emission

1. Source, Potention and

emission characteristic

GHG

3. Propose Mitigation Action

Plan 4. Priority of Mitigation Action

Selected

5. Institutions, Funding

Local Action Plan

Local Action Plan

Source : Ministrial Decree No. KP. 909 Year 2011

General Approach of Business As Usual

1. Prepare of the data nedeed, what are parameter/variable, such as :

• Number of vehicle• Population• National fuel consumption, etc.

2. Forecasting/Prediction Emission to 2020 (all parameter involved) bottom up approach

3. Cross Check with top down approach, (Count the emission CO2 from vehicle, compare to CO2 emission from National Fuel Sell)

Type of Data Regarding CalculationNo Type of Data Source Time

1. Road Length National Statistic Agency, Ministry of Public Work

1987-2008

2. Number of Vehicle National Statistic Agency

1987-2008

3. Local Emission Factor 2001

4. Population National Statistic Agency

2009

5. GDP National Statistic Agency

2008

7. Fuel Sales Handbook of Energy and economic statistic of Indonesia

2009

Achievement DGLT

ITS support Public Transport

Feeder (Peremajaan)

NMT

National and Local action plan for mitigation action8 Million GT CO2e

BaU :- Uncertanties- Available data, Quality of data- Improved of data

Capacity Building (especialy on local government level) Coordination among Stakeholder (regarding on data and

policies) Law Enforcement to implementation the policies Make a document for Proposed the 41% emission

reduction by foreign funding.

Conclusion

SALAMAT

Climate Change Progress Initiative from Indonesian President in G20 meeting in Pittsburgh,

USA and Conference of Parties (COP) 15 in Copenhagen December2009, that Indonesia will decrease emission GHG 26% from businessas usual and decrease 41% if supported by foreign funding, at 2020.

The target 26% will be reached from three sector i.e. Forestry, Waste, and Energy (mining, refinery, industry, transportation, household)

2011

Presidential Decree No.61 - National Action Plan in GHG emission reduction

Presidential Decree No.71 – Implementation of National GHG Inventory

2012

• Guideline of local action plan in GHG Emission reduction

Sustainable

Urban

Transportation

Improvement

Project

Pengenalan1. BaU (Baseline)

BAU Calculation (has to be translated)

1. Input data: Populasi Kendaraan, Populasi Penduduk, Pertumbuhan InfrastrukturJalan, Pertumbuhan GDP, Persentase Penduduk Perkotaan-Perdesaan, Total Konsumsi Bahan Bakar (bensin dan solar), Total Emisi CO2

2. Proyeksi: GDP/Kapita, Panjang Infrastruktur Jalan, Jumlah Kendaraan (Mobil, Motor, Bus, Truk), Jumlah Kendaraan Perkotaan, Jumlah Penduduk

3. Analisa Regresi: Kepemilikan Kendaraan vs. Pertumbuhan Infr. Jalan, KepemilikanKendaraan vs. GDP/kapita.

4. Proyeksi Regresi: Populasi Penduduk (Urban dan Non-urban), Panjang Jalan (Urban-Non Urban), Populasi Kendaraan

5. Perhitungan: Perjalanan Kendaraan- tahun, Konsumsi Bahan Bakar Kendaraan-tahun , Validasi Konsumsi bahan bakar, Total Emisi CO2 Kendaraan-tahun, validasi Emisi CO2.

6. Distribusi: Emisi CO2 Kendaraan berdasarkan moda (mobil, motor, truk, bis) danstruktur kota (metropolitan, kota besar, kota sedang, total nasional)

Business As Usual Approach

Restrain Infrastructure

No action with

• Normal GDP growth

• Normal Population Growth

• Vehicle growth depends on restrain infrastructure growth

Normal

No action with:

• Normal GDP growth

• Normal Population Growth

•Normal Vehicle Population Growth

• Normal Infrastructure Growth

Sustainable

Urban

Transportation

Improvement

Project

Pengenalan1. BaU Baseline

Bensin

Tahun ESDM(kl) Estimasi- (kl) Deviasi (%)

2007 16.962.198 16.775.200 -1%

2008 18.653.344 18.880.214 1%

Diesel

Tahun ESDM(kl) Estimasi- (kl) Deviasi (%)

2007 8.511.215 8.145.660 -4%

2008 8.911.926 9.655.473 8%

Cross check with ESDM (Selling fuel consumption in transport sector)

Sustainable

Urban

Transportation

Improvement

Project

Pengenalan

Assumption

CO2 Emission related to the fuel consumption

1. Gasoline: Emisi CO2 - 2,33 kg/liter (SITNP, 1995)2. Solar: Emisi CO2 - 2,62 kg/liter (SITNP, 1995)

1. BaU Baseline

YearCO2 Emission (Million Ton)

Car Bus Motor Truck Total

2020 34.79 34.39 33.01 8.64 110.83

2030 57.55 61.59 44.04 11.58 174.77

Sustainable

Urban

Transportation

Improvement

Project

Pengenalan

Asumsi: Data Cipta Karya:Penduduk Kota tahun 2008 telah melewati jumlah penduduk desa (> 50%)Jumlah penduduk kota metropolitan: 55% total penduduk perkotaanJumlah penduduk kota besar: 19% total penduduk perkotaanJumlah penduduk kota sedang: 25% total penduduk perkotaan.

1. BaU Baseline

Year

CO2 Emission by Area (Million Ton)

Metro Large Medium Rest of Nat

2020 31.70 10.95 14.41 53.77

2030 49.98 17.27 22.72 84.80

Sustainable

Urban

Transportation

Improvement

Project

Pengenalan1. BaU Baseline

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

CO

2 Em

issi

on (M

illio

n To

n)

Year

BaU CO2 Emission

BaU Rest. Infr. BaU

Cross check with Estimation CO2 Emission in 2007 (data from Bappenas, 67 mt CO2)

Teknis Kerangka Kerja Pengumpulan Data Nasional dan Daerah Proyeksi yang relevan (Proyeksi infrastruktur; data makro

(populasi, GDP, dll);proyeksi tingkat kepemilikan kendaraanbermotor;proyeksi aktivitas kendaraan berdasarkan tipe kendaraan;proyeksi penggunaan transportasi massal dan moda lain.

Pengembangan asumsi berdasarkan konsensus Calculation tools (alat perhitungan)

Non teknis Proses kordinasi yang kuat (vertikal & horizontal) Identifikasi pengorganisasian lokal dan nasional (kualifikasi

institusi, finansial, administratif, dll) Training of Trainers (penyamaan persepsi, khususnya metode BaU

dan kriteria pemilihan aksi mitigasi, pendampingan untuk daerah, dll)

Usulan Langkah Selanjutnya

Back ground of International Climate Change Issue

G20 - Sept 2009 Pittsburg

Pernyataan PresidenTarget Penurunan GRK: 26% APBN 41 % plus PHLN

Dana untuk Adaptasi danMitigasi: USD 30 Milyar 2012 USD 100 Milyar 2020 Transfer technology REDD +

Copenhagen Accord 2009

Unilateral

NAMA

Supported

Credited

Indonesia Voluntary Mitigation Actions30 January 2010

Shifting to Low-Emission Transportation Mode

Transport Sector

Indonesian Approach

Evolution of “Climate Change” issues

March 2010 On progress On progress

Kesimpulan kondisi MRV saat ini (transportasidarat)

Page 26

Strategy Avoid/Shift Improve

Local

measures

Requires bespoke studies,

but substantial levels of

data already available.

Challenges exist in

incorporating impacts into

assessment at the national

scale.

Can rely on a top-down

approach. Some NAMAs can

be MRVd where localised data

is available.

National

measures

Requires substantial

collection of new data to

characterise vehicle activity

by mode.

Can rely on a top-down

approach. Some NAMAs can

be MRVd with currently

available data.

Usulan Langkah Selanjutnya

Data / Slide Pendukung

Passanger Cars Buses TrucksMotor CyclesPopulation

Urban Non Urban

Car/Capita in Urban

Car/Capita in Non Urban

Truck/Capita in Urban

Motorcycle/Capita in Urban

Buses/Capita in Urban

Buses/Capita in Non Urban

Motorcycle/Capita in Non Urban

Truck/Capita in Non Urban

Regression Model Cars/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length

Regression Model Trucks/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length

Regression Model Motorcycles/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road

Length

Regression Model Buses/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length

Population Projection

Car Projection in Urban

Truck Projection in Non Urban

Truck Projection in Urban

Bus Projection in Urban

Car Projection in Non Urban

Bus Projection in Non Urban

Motorcycle Projection in Non

Urban

Motorcycle Projection in Urban

Road Length

Non Urban Road Length

Urban Road Length

Road Growth

Urban Road Length

Projection

Non Urban Road Length

Projection

Business as Usual (BaU) Infrastructure Constrain

Car Projection Bus Projection Truck Projection

Motorcycle Projection

Annual Car km Travelled

Annual Motorcycle km

Travelled

Annual Truck km Travelled

Annual Bus km Travelled

Annual Car Gasoline

Consumption

Annual Bus Diesel

Consumption

Annual Truck Diesel

Consumption

Annual Motorcycle Gasoline

Consumption

Car CO2 Emission

Motorcycle CO2 Emission

Truck CO2 Emission

Bus CO2 Emission

FUEL

CONSMP

CO2

EMISSION

ANNUAL

VEHICLE

CO2 Emission in Metro Cities

TOTAL CO2 EMISSION

CO2 Emission in Large Cities

CO2 Emission in

Medium Cities

CO2 Emission in

Rest of Nation

Assumption :Avarage trip length, Vehicle usage, Daily operation/years, Avarege shift

operation, Avarage daily trips

Assumption :Vehicle Consumption

Assumption :CO2 Emission by Fuel

Type

Assumption :Percentage of Population

by City types

Fuel Sales Data from ESDM

Cross Check

Input Data Calculation ResultComputed output for further calculation

Integrated Modeling

Analysis of Indonesian Policies and Transport

System

Data Base Development• Vehicle number (type), age• Vehicle fuel consumption, annual km-driven

• Growth of population, GDP, etc• Modal Split• OD trends• etc

CO2 Emission reduction scenarios:

• Avoid• Shift• Improve

Strategy & Policy Recommendations

• Package of Sustainable urban transport policies

• Package of Freight Improvement Program

• etc

Development of BAU Scenario

• BAU normal• BAU restraint infrastructure

Integrated Modeling

IntegrasiModel (Tools)

Analisis Kebijakan dan SistemTransportasi di Indonesia

Pengembangan Data Base• Jumlah kendaraan (tipe, umur, dll)• Komsumsi bahan bakar dan jarak

tempuh kendaraan (per jeniskendaraan)

• Pertumbuhan populasi, GDP, dll• Modal Split

• Trend Asal-Tujuan• dll

Skenario PenguranganEmisi CO2

• Avoid (Hindari)• Shift (Beralih)• Improve (Tingkatkan)

Rekomendasi Strategidan Kebijakan

• Paket Kebijakan TransportasiPerkotaan yang Berkelanjutan

• Paket Kehijakan TransportasiUdara

• Dll

Pengembangan SkenarioBaU (Bottom-up and Top-

down)• BAU normal• BAU keterbatasan infrastrukutur

PengembanganMRV

• Pengukuran• Pelaporan• Verifikasi

Kerangka Pengembangan Aksi Mitigasi

CHALLENGES

Funding Capacity Building Coordination among

Stakeholder Local Government

Involvement Law Enforcement