towards rethinking project portfolio management the … · rethinking project portfolio management...
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6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
TOWARDSRETHINKING
PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
THE FIRST STEP
WHO AM I?
2
› Educations & Certification› PhD in Information Systems, Aalborg
University› M.Sc. in Social science (Cand.soc), Aalborg
University› Certified Project Manager
(PRINCE2, MS Project, IPMA)
› Experience› Started at Aarhus University 1. Oct. 2017› External lector at ITU› Municipality of Copenhagen› Projectum› Økonomi- og Erhvervsministeriet
› +10 years experience in project and portfolio management
› Teaching
› Projects and business development
› IT Projects and program management
› IT projects and portfolio management
› Agile portfolio management
› IS Philosophy of Science and Research
› Research Areas
› Rethinking project portfolio
management
› Agile and adaptive project portfolio
management
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AGENDA
• Background
• Project portfolio management research
• Identifying challenges
• Five fundamental challenges
• What next?
Background
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
FIRST STEP IN OUR RESEARCH PROCESS
• This is the first step in a future thorough research
of the academic literature on project portfolio
management
• The presented results are preliminary
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
METHOD
• We analyze a PPM model, whish in your view
represents an “ideal type” of the dominant PPM
literature
• We challenged this model with contributions
from the academic literature and experts
• Thus, we provide insights regarding some of the
fundamental challenges in PPM
• This provides insights to suggest new directions
in future PPM research
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
SEARCH FOR THE DOMINANT PPM LITERATURE
• Many citations means that many other research
contributions has taken the respective PPM
model into account
Database Search result
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
TOP TEN OF MOST CITED PPM MODELS
• Search conducted 11.11.17 via Google Scholar
• Utilized keywords: project portfolio management
• Review of the first 15 search pages in the search result
• Used the search result to at top 10 of the most citied PPM articles/books
Rank Contribution Citations*
1 Cooper, Robert G., Scott J. Edgett, and Elko J. Kleinschmidt. "Portfolio Management for New Product
Development." (2006).
1254
2 Turner, J. Rodney. Handbook of project-based management. McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing, 2008. 1230
3 Archer, Norm P., and Fereidoun Ghasemzadeh. "An integrated framework for project portfolio selection."
International Journal of Project Management 17.4 (1999): 207-216.
906
4 Cooper, Robert G., Scott J. Edgett, and Elko J. Kleinschmidt. "New product portfolio management: practices
and performance." Journal of product innovation management 16.4 (1999): 333-351.
808
5 Cooper, Robert, Scott Edgett, and Elko Kleinschmidt. "Portfolio management for new product development:
results of an industry practices study." r&D Management 31.4 (2001): 361-380.
717
6 Engwall, Mats, and Anna Jerbrant. "The resource allocation syndrome: the prime challenge of multi-project
management?." International journal of project management 21.6 (2003): 403-409.
492
7 Cooper, Robert G., Scott J. Edgett, and Elko J. Kleinschmidt. "Portfolio management in new product
development: Lessons from the leaders—I." Research-Technology Management 40.5 (1997): 16-28.
431
8 Ghasemzadeh, Fereidoun, and Norman P. Archer. "Project portfolio selection through decision support."
Decision support systems 29.1 (2000): 73-88.
419
9 Cooper, Robert G., Scott J. Edgett, and Elko J. Kleinschmidt. "New problems, new solutions: making portfolio
management more effective." Research-Technology Management 43.2 (2000): 18-33.
415
10 Jeffery, Mark, and Ingmar Leliveld. "Best practices in IT portfolio management." MIT Sloan Management
Review 45.3 (2004): 41.408
PPM research
THREE RESEARCH FIELDS DOMINATES PPM RESEARCH
Project Management New Products
Development
Information
Systems
Cooper et al (1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006)Archer and Ghasemzadeh (1999, 2000)
(Archer and Ghasemzadeh, 1999)
AN IDEAL TYPE OF CLASSIC PPM MODELS
(Archer and Ghasemzadeh, 1999/2007)
AN IDEAL TYPE OF CLASSIC PPM
Identifyingfundamental
challenges
IDENTIFYING CHALLENGES
1. Input from experts, e.g. Prof.Martinsou(two PPM contributions in top 25)
2. Mind mapping existing knowledge
3. More work to do..[..]
Fivefundamentalchallenges
CHALLENGE 1#
Project goals are defined early, but values is
created much later (Matinsou, 2017):
•The environment may change due to
uncertainties (Martinsou et al., 2014)
•Stakeholders may change preferences (Ward et
al., 2008)
CHALLENGE 1#
“it’s hard to alter course when you’re being swept down a large waterfall . . . Too much up-front planning means too much change management downstream” (Cooper, 2016)
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CHALLENGE 2#
Important decisions may be made decentralized
(Frey and Buxman 2014)
•Finding out what the ”customer” need
•Decentralized resource- and funding allocation
TREND DURING THE LAST 100 YEARS
Adapted from Bernstein et al (2016)
FROM ORG CHARTS TO WORK CHARTS
Adapted from Bernstein et al (2016)
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CHALLENGE 3#
PPM is not a strictly rational process (Christansen
and Varnes, 2008)
•Decisions are made on the basis on “logic of
appropriateness”
•Actors interpret and negotiate in PPM
interpretsinterprets
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CHALLENGE 4#
Decision making has conscious and unconscious
biases (Kahneman et al., 2003)
•Often we think we know (first and second level
thinking) (Kahneman et al 2003)
•Sometimes subordinates lies to decision makers
(Flyvbjerg et al., 2002)
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CHALLENGE 4#
ANCHORING BIAS
• Do you know where the numbers came from?
Can there be unsubstantiated numbers? ...
Extrapolation, from history? ... A motivation to
use a certain anchor?
• Reanchor with figures generated by other
models or benchmarks, and request new
analysis.
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CHALLENGE 5#
Context matters, one size does not fit all (Nolan
and McFarlan 2005)
• Strategic and operational importance of
projects has influence on extent and intensity of
PPM activities (Nolan and Mcfarlan, 2005)
• Different contexts favors different settings e.g.
agile vs. classic projects management (Rigby et
al., 2016)
IMPORTANCE OF PROJECTS AND EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF PPM ACTIVITIES
(Nolan and Mcfralan, 2005)
CONTEXTS AND DIFFERENT PROJECTS MANAGEMENT METHODS
(Rigby at al., 2016)
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
(Archer and Ghasemzadeh, 1999)
AN IDEAL TYPE OF CLASSIC PPM MODELS
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
What is next..?
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
FUTURE DIRECTION FOR RESEARCH
Some ideas:
•Build on excising frameworks/models
• e.g. SAFe or Christansen and
Varnes (2008)
•Suggestions…?
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
EXTENT INSIGHTS FROM CLASSIC PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT RESEARCH
(Adopted from Svejvig and Andersen, 2015)
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
QUESTIONS (IF TIME AVAILABLE)
1. Which of the five challenges do you see
as the most important related to your
organization’s PPM?
2. What solutions could be suggested?
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
FINAL QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS?
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
REFERENCES
Archer, Norm P., and Fereidoun Ghasemzadeh. "An integrated framework for project
portfolio selection." International Journal of Project Management 17.4 (1999): 207-216.
Archer, Norm, and Fereidoun Ghasemzadeh. "Project portfolio selection and
management." Morris, P./Pinto, JK (2007), The Wiley Guide to Project, Program &
Portfolio Management (2007): 94-112.
Bernstein, Ethan, et al. "Beyond the holacracy hype." Harvard Business Review 94.7/8
(2016): 38-49.
Christiansen, John K., and Claus Varnes. "From models to practice: decision making at
portfolio meetings." International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management 25.1
(2008): 87-101.
Cooper, Robert G. "Agile–Stage-Gate Hybrids: The Next Stage for Product Development
Blending Agile and Stage-Gate methods can provide flexibility, speed, and improved
communication in new-product development." Research-Technology Management
59.1 (2016): 21-29.
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
REFERENCES
Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette Skamris Holm, and Soren Buhl. "Underestimating costs in public
works projects: Error or lie?." Journal of the American planning association 68.3 (2002):
279-295.
Frey, Thorsten, and Peter Buxmann. "The importance of governance structures in IT
project portfolio management." ECIS. 2011.
Kahneman, Daniel, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony. "Before you make that big decision."
Harvard business review 89.6 (2011): 50-60.
Martinsuo, M., Korhonen, T. and Laine, T. (2014) Identifying, framing and managing
uncertainties in project portfolios. International Journal of Project Management 32 (5)
732-746
Matinsou, Mia 2017: lecture at implement 28 September 2017
Markowitz, Harry. "Portfolio selection." The journal of finance 7.1 (1952): 77-91.
Nolan, Richard, and F. Warren McFarlan. "Information technology and the board of
directors." Harvard business review 83.10 (2005): 96.
LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN
6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
REFERENCES
Rigby, Darrell K., Jeff Sutherland, and Hirotaka Takeuchi. "Embracing agile." Harvard
Business Review 94.5 (2016): 40-50.
Svejvig, Per, and Peter Andersen. "Rethinking project management: A structured
literature review with a critical look at the brave new world." International Journal of
Project Management 33.2 (2015): 278-290.
Ward, Peppard & Daniel (2008). Building Better Business Cases for IT investments, MIS
Quarterly Executive 7 (1).
THE END
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT