total energy model for connected devices
TRANSCRIPT
IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 2
Agenda
10h00 – 10h10 Welcome to the webinar and introduction
Moderator:
Emi Bertoli, Policy Analyst, Energy Efficiency Division, International Energy Agency
Presentation:
George Kamiya, Digital/Energy Analyst, Strategic Initiatives Office, International Energy Agency
10h10 – 10h40 Presentation and online interface demonstration:
Paul Ryan, Director, EnergyConsult Pty Ltd
Anson Wu, Director, Hansheng Ltd
10h40 – 11h00 Q&A
Moderator:
Emi Bertoli, Policy Analyst, Energy Efficiency Division, International Energy Agency
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Energy and climate impacts of digital technologies
28 April 2021 Webinar 8: Total Energy Model for Connected Devices
George Kamiya Strategic Initiatives Office
IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 4
Greenhouse gas emissions come from many sectors and sources
Source: Our World in Data (2020). Emissions by sector. IEA (2020), Energy Technology Perspectives.
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Secondary effects on other sectors
Direct and indirect effects of digital technologies
Direct effects on other sectors
Digital
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Secondary effects on other sectors
Energy and carbon emissions from digital technologies
Direct effects on other sectors
Digital
2000 EB
4.1 billion
130 trillion
23 PWh
7.7 billion6.1 billion
14 PWh
68 trillion
0.4 billion
0.9 EB
Population
GDP
Electricity use
Internet users
Internet traffic
2000 2019
Sources: UN (2019), World Population Prospects 2019; World Bank (2020), Data Bank: GDP, PPP (Constant 2017 International $); IEA (2020), Data and statistics;
ITU (2020), Statistics; Cisco (2015), The History and Future of Internet Traffic; Cisco (2018), Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Trends, 2017–2022
“It’s now reasonable to project that half of the electric grid will be
powering the digital-Internet economy within the next decade.”
Forbes (1999). https://www.forbes.com/forbes/1999/0531/6311070a.html#21a128aa2580.
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Data centre energy use
Data centres account for around 1% of global electricity use
Internet traffic, data centre workloads and energy use
Sources: Masanet et al. (2020). Recalibrating global data center energy-use estimates. IEA (2020). Data centres and data transmission networks; Cisco (2018). Global Cloud Index; Cisco (2019). Visual Networking Index.
SDS = Sustainable Development Scenario
Internet traffic
Data centre workloads
Data centre energy use
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2013 2016 2019
Inde
x: 2
01
0 =
1
Traditional
Cloud
Hyperscale
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
TW
h
Global data centre energy use
SDS
+1100%
+650%
+3%
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Energy efficiency trends
The energy efficiency of computing and data transmission has doubled every 2-3 years
Computing – “Koomey’s Law”
Aslan et al. (2018). Electricity intensity of Internet data transmission: Untangling the estimates.Koomey & Naffziger (2015), Moore’s Law Might Be Slowing Down, But Not Energy Efficiency.
Data transmission
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Raw materials
Manufacturing
Distribution
Use
Recycling & disposal
Impacts throughout the hardware lifecycle
There are environmental impacts beyond energy use and GHG emissions throughout the product lifecycle, including
impacts on soil, air water, biodiversity, and electronic waste.
Malmodin & Lunden (2018), The Energy and Carbon Footprint of the Global ICT and E&M Sectors 2010–2015
The Guardian (2017). https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/11/tsunami-of-data-could-consume-fifth-global-electricity-by-2025.
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Data centres: global energy use estimates
Global data centre energy consumption, 2010-2030
Sources: Andrae & Edler (2015), On Global Electricity Usage of Communication Technology: Trends to 2030 (banded area represents range from “Worst” to “Best”); Andrae (2017), Total Consumer Power Consumption Forecast (Expected
scenario shown); Andrae (2019), Projecting the chiaroscuro of the electricity use of communication and computing from 2018 to 2030; Andrae (2020), New perspectives on internet electricity use in 2030; IEA (2017), Digitalization &
Energy; IEA (2020), Tracking Clean Energy Progress: Data centres and data transmission networks; Masanet et al. (2020), Recalibrating global data center energy-use estimates.
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TW
h
Andrae & Edler (2015)
Andrae (2017)
Andrae (2019)
Andrae (2020)
IEA (2017-20); Masanet et al. (2020)
New York Post (2019). https://nypost.com/2019/10/28/why-climate-change-activists-are-coming-for-your-binge-watch/,
IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 15
Carbon emissions from streaming video
The carbon footprint of streaming video is relatively small, especially in countries with low-carbon electricity
Sources: IEA (2020), The carbon footprint of streaming video: fact-checking the headlines; The Shift Project (2020), Did The Shift Project really overestimate the carbon footprint of online video? Our analysis of the CarbonBrief and IEA articles.
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Driving 5km
Boiling a kettle once
Corrected
Original
Australia
France
United Kingdom
Average (updated)
Average (original)O
ther
activitie
sIE
A
kg CO2 per half hour of video
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Secondary effects on other sectors
Effects on other sectors
Direct effects on other sectors
Digital
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Changes in energy use and emissions from teleworking
Residential
buildings
Commercial
buildings
Structural / systemic
Errands
Direct
Other sectors
Urban sprawl?
Larger homes?
Commuting
Digital
Home ICT
Office ICT
Secondary, longer-term effects
Depends on frequency
Depends on climate /
season, fuels, grid mix
Depends on mode choice
For permanent
teleworkers
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Applying digital technologies in the energy sector
• Buildings: smart building controls & thermostats; connected appliances & lighting
• Transport: shared mobility services; automated & connected vehicles; freight optimisation
• Industry: robotics; digital twins; 3D printing; machine learning
• Electricity: IoT and automation to improve efficiency and reduce maintenance costs; machine
learning to improve solar and wind forecasts, and better match supply and demand from
increasingly decentralised sources
• Oil & gas: machine learning to reduce costs of detecting methane leaks
• Policy: data collection; modelling; assessing policy options and effectiveness
Net impacts on energy use and emissions will be shaped by climate policy
IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 19
Key takeaways
• Digital technologies have direct and indirect effects on climate change.
• Direct energy use and emissions from digital technologies have been flat over the past decade,
thanks to rapid energy efficiency improvements.
• Over the next decade, demand for digital technologies and services is expected to grow rapidly.
Limiting emissions growth hinges on energy efficiency (incl. RD&D into next-generation tech),
zero-carbon electricity, and decarbonising supply chains.
• The effects of digitalisation on other sectors and activities are potentially much larger than its direct
footprint, but these effects are complex and difficult to quantify.
• Strong climate policies are needed to ensure digital technologies are applied to reduce emissions
(and not increase them).