GEOG 102 – Population, Resources, and the Environment

Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Topic 3 – Population Theory

A – Demographic TransitionB – MalthusianismC – Neo-MalthusianismD – Creative Pressure

Demographic Transition

■ 1. Concept• What is the demographic transition?

■ 2. Stages• What are the major stages of its occurrence?

■ 3. Geographical Variations• Does the demographic transition occurred at the same time and

places?

AA

11 Concept

■ Overview• A “social modernization” of the reproduction process:

• Improved health care and access to family planning.• Higher educational levels, especially among women.• Economic growth and rising per capita income levels.• Urbanization and growing employment opportunities.

• Involves moving from one equilibrium to another:• Initial equilibrium: High birth and death rates.• Final equilibrium: Low birth and death rates.

• Theory backed by solid empirical evidence.• Involves four phases.

Concept

■ Epidemiological Transition• Focuses on changes over time in the causes of mortality

affecting certain populations:• Health conditions.• Disease patterns.

• Result in a decline in death rates and an increase of life expectancy.

• The society goes through a transition from communicative diseases to degenerative diseases.

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Concept

■ Stages in epidemiological transition• Three identifiable stages in the

transition.• 1) Age of communicative

diseases.• 2) Age of receding pandemics.• 3) Age of degenerative and man-

made diseases.

Communicative Diseases

Receding Pandemics

Degenerative and Man-made Diseases

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70 years

50 years

30 yearsHigh FertilityHigh Mortality

High FertilityDecreasing Mortality

Low FertilityLow Mortality

Survivorship of the British Population, 17th and 20th Centuries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

17th Century

1999 (M)

1999 (F)

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Demographic Transition Theory

190018001700

Stage I Stage II Stage IVStage III

Birth Rate

Death Rate

2000

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DemographicGrowth

Population

Crude Birth Rates, Western Europe, 1751-1991

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1751

1771

1791

1811

1831

1851

1871

1891

1911

1931

1951

1971

1991

Britain

Ireland

France

Sweden

Germany

Italy

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Crude Death Rates, Western Europe, 1751-1991

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1751

1771

1791

1811

1831

1851

1871

1891

1911

1931

1951

1971

1991

Britain

Ireland

France

Sweden

Germany

Italy

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Stages in Demographic Transition

Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV

High birth rates High birth rates Falling birth rates Low birth rates

No or little Family PlanningParents have many children because few surviveMany children are needed to work the landChildren are a sign of virilityReligious beliefs and cultural traditions encourage large families

Family Planning usedA lower infant mortality ratesIndustrialization means less need for laborIncreased desire for material possessions and less desire for large familiesEmancipation of women

Children as liabilities instead of assets

High death rates Falling death rates Low death rates Low death rates

Disease and plague (e.g. bubonic, cholera, kwashiorkor)Famine, uncertain food supplies and poor dietPoor hygiene, no clean water or sewage disposal

Improved medicineImproved sanitation and waters supplyImprovements in food production in terms of quality and quantityImproved transport to move foodA decrease in child mortality

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Fertility Declines, Real and Projected (1950-2050)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TFR

(2.1

= n

o po

pula

tion

grow

th)

Developing Developed Africa Asia South and Central America

11

33 Geographical Variations

■ Developed countries• Took 250 years for most developed economies to go through

their own demographic transition (from 1750 to 2000).• Population growth never surpassed the capacity of these

economies to accommodate it.■ Developing countries• Demographic transition started in the 20th century:

• The most advanced segment after WWI.• The least advanced segment after WWII.

• Very few have went trough the transitory mutation.• Most of them have a type III demographic transition.• By the time they reach type IV, a huge amount a population will

be added to their populations.

Beginning of Demographic Transition33

Fertility Transition in some Countries, 1962-2000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Nigeria

Philippines

Egypt

Banglad

esh

India

Mexico

Indone

siaBraz

il

China

South K

orea

TFR

1962198219902000

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Geographical Variations

■ Will demographic transition occur all around the world?• Model based upon the Western experience.• Evidence underline that the process is likely.• Problems:

• The base population in the developing world is large.• Low percentages of population increase will result in large numbers of

additional people.• Limited possibilities for immigration (Unlike Europe at the end of the 19th

century and early during the 20th century).• Religious and cultural influences.

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Malthusianism

■ 1. Concept• What are the principles of Malthusianism?

■ 2. The Malthusian Crisis• What does a Malthusian crisis involves?

■ 3. Contemporary Issues

BB

11 Concept

■ Context• Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) in his book

“Essays on the Principle of Population” (1798).• Relationships between population and food

resources (area under cultivation).• Growth of available resources is linear while

population growth is often non-linear (exponential).

• Took notice of famines in the Middle Ages, especially in the early 14th century (1316).

• From the data he gathered, population was doubling every 25 years.

• Over a century’s time, population would rise by a factor of 16 while food rose by a factor of 4.

Demographicgrowth

Resourcegrowth

Deficit

The Malthusian Crisis

■ The “Malthusian crisis”• Available agricultural spaces are limited.• Technical progresses (machinery, irrigation, fertilizers, and new

types of crops) are slow to occur.• Increasing incapability to support the population.• If this persists, the population will eventually surpass the

available resources.• The outcomes are “Malthusian crises”:

• Food shortages.• Famines.• War and epidemics.

• “Fix” the population in accordance with available resources.• Necessity of a “moral restraint” on reproduction.

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Overexploitation

The Malthusian Crisis

Population

Resources

Technological Innovation

Time

22

Quantity t2

t3

t1

The Malthusian Crisis

■ The Malthusian Crisis has not occurred• Malthus has been criticized on several accounts during the last

200 years.• Religious view (Protestantism), racist and elitist.• Did not foresee the demographic transition:

• Changes in the economy that changed the role of children in the industrializing societies.

• Failed to account for improvements in technology:• Enabled food production to increase at rates greater than arithmetic, often

at rates exceeding those of population growth.• Enabled to access larger amounts of resources.• Enabled forms of contraception.

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33 Contemporary Issues

■ The Malthusian crisis today• Demographic growth:

• Between 1960 and 2000, three billion persons were added to the global population.

• To sustain this growth, agricultural resources had to be doubled.• Required housing space surpassed all that was constructed since the

beginning of mankind.• Agricultural growth:

• Between 1960 and 1990, grain yields has increased by 92% while cultivated surfaces have only increased by 8%.

• Foresee a limit to growth in agricultural production.• Consumption growth.• Environmental degradation.

Contemporary Issues

■ Relevance of the Malthusian theory• Was Malthus right or the trend in agricultural production will

again increase to surpass population growth?• Are improvements in agricultural techniques enough to answer

demand?• The next 25 years will be crucial and will bring forward answers

to these questions.• The work of Malthus continues to be important to demographers:

• Influence of many contemporary theorists from various academic disciplines.

• Built upon Malthus’s ideas and linked them to modern sciences.

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Neo-Malthusianism

■ 1. Neo-Malthusian Concepts• How can the Malthusian theory be adapted to the current

situation?■ 2. The Commons• In which way common resources are used?

■ 3. Neo-Malthusianism and Human Reproduction• Is reproduction a right or privilege?

CC

Neo-Malthusian Concepts

■ Carrying capacity• Issue linked with the carrying capacity of land.• Limits to absorb ever-greater numbers of people.• Population growth has environmental impacts.• Support of family planning, contraception and abortion.• Population problems cannot be addressed through technology

beyond the short term.■ Overpopulation• A multidimensional issue linked with the carrying capacity.• Numbers should be linked with level of consumption.• The United States would be more overpopulated than China.

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Neo-Malthusian Concepts

■ Population bomb• Fast population growth seen as a threat:

• The word “bomb” obviously refer to the lethal character of the problem.• Brought forward by Paul Ehrlich in the late 1960s.• Most Third World countries were in the middle of their

demographic transition at the time.• Ehrlich and others continued the basic Malthusian numbers

game in which population growth outstrips food production.• Moved Beyond Malthus in their consideration of many

environmental issues.

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Neo-Malthusian Concepts

■ Limits to growth• “Club of Rome”, 1972• Scientific report on the limits to growth.• Used computer models for the first time:

• Population growth, food per capita, industrial output, resources and pollution.

• Blaming huge waste of resources by developed economies.

• Supporting a zero growth policy.• Main arguments:

• Resources are in finite number.• Demographic growth cannot occur

indefinitely.• Must stop at some point.

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Population

Industrial output

Resources

The Commons

■ Definition• Resources that we share as a population:

• Land and other inputs into the food production process.• Oceans and their contents, particularly fish as a food source.• The atmosphere.• Sources of energy.• Landscape for recreational purposes.

• Resources of the commons are in finite quantities while access is free (in theory).

• The world is finite and can support only a finite population:• Population growth must eventually equal zero.• Otherwise we have to abandon certain freedoms of access to the

Commons.• The only way freedoms can be saved is by relinquishing the freedom to

breed.

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The Commons

■ Example of using the commons• Decision on whether to increase the size of herd that grazes on

common lands.• A rational being seeking to maximize his gain:

• Positive component of adding animals is additional income from additional animals.

• Negative component is the overgrazing caused by the additional animals.• The costs are shared by those using the common grazing lands.• Decision to add the extra animals to his herd.• Unfortunately, all of the other villages will arrive at the same conclusion,

do the same thing.• The outcome is the ruin to the environment.

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The Commons22

Commons(sustain 14)

1

Village

2

4

3

Cattle (grazing)Benefits: +1 eachCosts: -1 each

Village 1 2 3 4

Cattle 3 3 3 3

Commons 14 – 12 = 2

Cattle (+1)4

(+1)4

(+1)4

(+1)4

Commons 14 – 16 = -2 (overgrazing)

The Commons

■ The tragedy of the commons• Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all.• All the resources will be used.

■ Solutions• Private property:

• Removes some of the Commons from access.• Encourages conservation and wise management.• Vested interest in maintaining it for future use.

• Collective property:• Parts of the Commons not possible to divide into private segments -

atmosphere, oceans, etc.• Collective (global) ownership.• Taxation and coercive laws as the primary means of preservation.

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World Fish Catch per Capita, 1950-1999

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998

22

Commercial Harvests in the Northwest Atlantic of Some Fish Stocks, 1950-95 (in 1,000 metric tons)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Flatfishes (flounders, halibuts, etc.) Haddock Red hake Atlantic cod

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Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning, 1751-2001

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1751 1771 1791 1811 1831 1851 1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991

Mill

ions

of t

ons

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Neo-Malthusianism and Human Reproduction

■ Human reproduction• Malthus was advocating “moral restraint”:

• A religious bias.• Modern contraception:

• A tool of population control (state perspective).• A tool of freedom in reproductive choice (market perspective).

• Against subsidizing reproduction:• Welfare state.• Many international aid programs.• Remove the punishment (such as children starving to death) from having

too many offspring.

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Neo-Malthusianism and Human Reproduction

■ Freedom to breed• Clashes between neo-Malthusianism and human rights.• UN’s Declaration of Human Rights:

• Defense of the individual family’s right to determine family size.• Support the freedom to breed for political reasons.• Few governments are able or willing to enforce restrictions on the

reproduction of their populations.• Human population control cannot be achieved through voluntary

means.• With freedom to breed comes equal obligations:

• Responsibility to the welfare of the children.• Difficult concept to grasp, especially by an uneducated population.

• Each new individual competes with other for resources.

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The Creative Pressure

■ 1. Concept and Issues• What does the creative pressure theory imply?

■ 2. Limits to Productivity• What may be the limits to productivity?

■ 3. Creative Pressure vs. Neo-Malthusianism• Can Neo-Malthusianism and creative pressure be reconciled?

DD

Concept and Issues

■ Concept• Opposed to the Malthusian and

Neo-Malthusian perspectives.• Brought forward in the early 1960s.• View shared by several economists.• Population has a positive impact on

economic growth.• “Necessity is the mother of all

inventions”.• Population pressure forces the

finding of solutions:• Agriculture.• Economy.

11Demographic

growth

Higher occupationdensities

Pressures to increase

productivity

Innovations

Productivity growth

?P

rob

lem

Solu

tion

Ou

tcom

e

Concept and Issues

■ Technological innovation and agriculture• Intensification of agriculture.• New methods of fertilization.• Pesticide use.• Irrigation.• Multi-cropping systems in which more than one crop would be

realized per year.■ Creative pressure and global population growth• Would lead to new productivity gains.• Humans don’t deplete resources but, through technology, create

them.• Resources will become more abundant.• Help overcome shortage in food production and employment.

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Limits to Productivity

■ Limits of food production by environmental factors• Soil exhaustion and erosion.• Evolutionary factors such as the development of greater

resistance to pesticides.• Climate change.• Loss of productive soils due to land use conversion to other

purposes, such as urbanization.• Water shortages and pollution.

■ Limits by technology• May be available but not shared.• Maybe too expensive for some regions (e.g. desalination).

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Creative Pressure vs. Neo-Malthusianism33Carrying capacity

Demographic transitionPopulation

Resources

21st century

Creativepressure

Environmentaldegradation

19th-20th century

Neo-Malthusianism

Malthusianism

Creative Pressure vs. Neo-Malthusianism

■ Neo-Malthusianism• Population consumes resources.• Population growth has

environmental consequences.• Notion of carrying capacity.• Population should be controlled

by strict family planning policies.• Overpopulation linked with levels

of consumption.

■ Creative Pressure• Population induces the creation

of resources and the substitution to alternative sources.

• “Necessity is the mother of all inventions”.

• Population will adjust itself to the quantity of available resources.

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