www.tri-zen.com

Can there be another Australian LNG

project?

Tony Regan, Principal Consultant

Tri-Zen International, Singapore

www.tri-zen.com 2 2

Introduction to TRI-ZEN

TRI-ZEN is a consulting business focused on energy and utilities

We cover upstream & downstream, technical, commercial & financial

We offer a wide range of services:

Consulting

Strategy

Business Development

Project Management

Organizational Development

Alliances

Due diligence for M&A, project finance and IPO’s

Lead consultants located across Asia with a global extended network

Clients include the leading companies in energy and professional services

based in Asia, Europe & North America

ThyssenKrupp Uhde Energy & Power

ThyssenKrupp Uhde Energy & Power

Uhde Energy & Power, Oil and Gas Centre of Excellence based in UK, supporting regional Design centres including Uhde Australia.

A technical management consultancy providing multi-discipline technical support for major capital developments. The company has a significant track record of experience in the oil & gas, LNG and power sectors worldwide providing high quality project services to asset owners, operators and contractors in the oil, gas, LNG and renewables industries.

Core engineering design services focussed around process, facilities, utilities and structures with specialist services for due diligence and peer review, feasibility study, option appraisal, conceptual design and project management.

120 professional engineers, 20 LNG professionals

Experience gained from:

Over 30 LNG import terminals

Over 15 LNG liquefaction projects

13 Floating terminal projects (both FPSO’s and FSRU’s)

11 floating liquefaction projects (FLNG)

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Question 1

Are explosive costs and inadequate productivity affecting fresh investment in Australian projects

4

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Question 1

Are explosive costs and inadequate productivity affecting fresh investment in Australian projects

YES

5

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US$/tonne capacity

6

NWS T4

Darwin T1

NWS T5

Pluto T1 Gorgon

PNG LNG QCCLNG

GLNG

Icthys

Wheatstone

Pluto T2 Browse

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Start up date

Aus Pacific

Increased project costs

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Project cost overruns

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Cost variations FID v Latest est US$/bn

FID US$/bn Latest est US$/bn

US$ 1.3bn added to GLNG to account for net present cost of 3P gas purchased Latest estimate : Standard Chartered Bank Source: SCB, Bernstein Research

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Project cost overruns

8

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Cost variations FID v latest estimates US$/tpa

FID US$/tpa Latest est US$/tpa

US$ 1.3bn added to GLNG to account for net present cost of 3P gas purchased Latest estimate : Standard Chartered Bank Source: SCB, Bernstein Research

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Question 2

Competing for capital needed to develop future projects of global play

9

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Question 3

What is the reality of the global competition from new and emerging markets such as the USA, Canada, Russia & East Africa?

10

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R/P = 98

R/P = 265 R/P = 41

Euro

47 mill

tn North America 9 mill tn

Caribb, Cent & S. America 21 mill tn

Forecast LNG Supply & Demand 2015

LNG demand (million tonnes)

Asia Pacific

111 mill tn

Africa

71 mill tn

Middle East 103mill tn

Liquefaction capacity (million tonnes)

Asia Pacific 211 mill tn

(Existing, under construction, planned)

Europe

Liquefaction Capacity 313 million tonnes Base case demand 300 million tonnes

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R/P = 98

R/P = 265 R/P = 41

Australia

Norway

Algeria

Nigeria

Eq. Guinea

Trinidad

Peru

Oman

Qatar

Yemen

Abu Dhabi

Brunei

Malaysia Indonesia

Egypt Libya

Russia

Global LNG liquefaction capacity 2020

Angola

Colombia

PNG

Global liquefaction capacity 405 million tonnes

Russia

USA

Existing plus under construction

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Liquefaction projects expected to reach FID in 2010

13

Mill tn Start Shareholders Contracts

Pluto T2 5 2013 Woodside Tokyo Gas (1.75 M tn), Kansai Electric (2 M tn)

Pluto T3 5 2014 Woodside

Ichthys 8 2015 Inpex, Total

Fisherman's Landing 1.5 2012 LNG Ltd, Golar, Arrow Toyota Tsushu (1.5 M tn)

Gladstone LNG 3.6 2014 Petronas, Santos Petronas (2 M tn with option for another 1 M tn)

Queensland Curtis 7.4 2014 BG CNOOC (3.6 M tn plus portfolio options)

Australia Pacific 7 2014 Origin, ConocoPhillips

PNG 8 2014 InterOil

Total 45.5

Liquefaction projects expected to reach FID in 2010

Australia – the only show in town All other projects had been suspended/cancelled as the recession hit

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The competition in Asia Pacific

14

Project Country Mill tn FID Start up Shareholders

BC LNG Export Canada 1.8 2012 2015 LNG Partners, Hasla First Nation

Kitimat LNG Canada 10.0 2014 2018 Apache, Chevron

LNG Canada Canada 6.0 2015 2019 Shell, Mitsubishi, KOGAS, PetroChina

Prince Rupert LNGCanada 14.0 2015 2020 BG

Pacific NW LNG Canada 10.0 2014 2018 Petronas, Sinopec, Japex, IOC, Petroleum Brunei

Aurora LNG Canada ? ? ? Nexen/CNOOC

Grassy Point Canada SK E&S

Grassy Point Canada Woodside

WCC LNG Canada 15.0 ExxonMobil

Kitsault Canada 20.0 2014 Kitsault Energy

Triton LNG Canada 2.3 Triton, AltaGas, Idemitsu

Woodfibre LNG Canada 2.1 Pacific Oil and Gas

Abadi Indonesia 2.5 2013 2018 Inpex, Shell

Tannguh T3 Indonesia 3.8 2013 2018 BP, MI Berau, CNOOC, Nippon Oil, KG Berau, LNG Japan, Talisman

Basrah Iraq 2.0 ? ? Shell, Mitsubishi

Mocambique Mocambique 20.0 2013 2018 Anadarko, ENI

Sakhalin T3 Russia 4.8 2014 2018 Gazprom, Shell, Mitsui, Mitsubishi

Vladivostok Russia 10.0 2013 2017 Gazprom, Itochu, Japex, Inpex, Marubeni

Sakhalin 1 Russia 5.0 2018 Rosneft, ExxonMobil

PNG LNG T3 PNG 4.0 2018 ExxonMobil, Oil Search

TBA PNG 5.0 InterOil Total

Stanley PNG 3.0 Horizon Oil, Osaka Gas

Tanzania Tanzania 10.0 2019 BG, Statoil

Jordan Cove USA 6.0 2018 Veresen Inc

Oregon LNG USA 9.6 ? ? Leucadia National Corporation

Alaska USA 15.0 ? BP, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and TransCanada

181.9

Proposed & planned Asia Pacific liquefaction projects

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The competition - Atlantic

15

Project Country Mill tn FID Start up Shareholders

Cameroun LNG Cameroun 3.5 2014 2018 GdF, SNH

Goldboro NS Canada 5.0 2018 Piedidae Energy

Melford NS Canada 4.5 2016 2020 H Energy

Eq. Guinea T2 Eq. Guinea 4.4 2012 2018 Marathon,Sonagas, Mitsui, Marubeni, Union Fenosa, GALP

Tamar FLNG Israel 3.0 2013 2018 Noble Energy, DorGas, Isramco, Pangea & Delek

Brass Nigeria 10.0 2013 2017 NNPC, ENI, ConocoPhillips, Total

Yamal 2 Russia 16.5 2022-25 Novatek

Pechora Russia 2.6 ? 2018 Ch-Oil&Gaz

Baltic LNG Russia 10.0 2018 Gazprom

Freeport LNG USA 13.2 2012 2017 Freeport LNG, Macquarie

Lake Charles USA 15.0 ? 2017 BG, Southern Union

Cove Point USA 7.8 ? 2017 Dominion

Cameron USA 12.0 ? 2018 Sempre Energy

Corpus Christie USA 13.5 ? 2017 Cheniere

Brownsville USA 20.0 ? 2018 Gulf Coast LNG Export

Lake Charles LA USA 8.0 2017 Magnolia LNG

Pascagoula USA 11.5 ? ? Gulf LNG Liquefaction

Elbe Island USA 4.0 ? ? El Paso (Southern LNG)

Lavaca Bay TX USA 3.0 2013 2017 Excelerate (FLSO)

Golden Pass USA 15.6 ? 2018 ExxonMobil, Qatar Petroleum

Main Pass USA 24.0 ? 2018 United Energy, Freeport-McMoRan Energy

Ingleside TX USA 8.0 ? 2018 Pangea LNG

Plaquemines LA USA 8.0 2018 CE FLNG (Cambridge Energy)

Cameron Parish LA USA 1.4 Waller LNG Services

Cameron Parish LA USA 1.5 Gasfin Development

Cameron Parish LA USA 5.0 Venture Global

Brownsville TX USA 24.0 Eos LNG, Barca LNG

Brownsville TX USA 7.0 Annova LNG

Brownsville TX USA 4.0 2018 Texas LNG

West Cameron FLNGUSA 14 Delfin LNG

Plaquemines LA USA 2 Louisiana LNG Energy

282

Proposed & planned Atlantic Basin liquefaction projects

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Term LNG contracts Japan & China

16

Abu Dhabi 0%

Australia 37%

Brunei 4%

Indonesia 6%

Malaysia 7%

Oman 3%

Papua New Guinea

3%

Qatar 11%

Russia 6%

USA 19%

Others 4%

Japanese term contracts 2020

Australia 45%

Canada 8%

Indonesia 4%

Malaysia 5%

PNG 3%

Qatar 17%

Russia 5%

Others 13%

Chinese term contracts - China 2020

60 million tonnes 100 million tonnes

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Where will FLNG fit in?

Where will FLNG fit in? Is this the way to go for Australia

17

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FLNG Projects

18

Early proposed projects were off West Africa but focus switched to Australia

Now going global – Malaysia, Indonesia, Iraq, Israel, Colombia Africa and USA

FLNG

Firm

Existing

Proposed

PNG

AUSTRALIA

Greater Sunrise, 3.5 mtpa

Bonaparte, 2 mtpa

Shell/Prelude, 3.5 mtpa

Scarborough, 6 mtpa

Echuca Shoals,

1.5 mtpa

Abadi, 2.5 mtpa

INDONESIA

TIMOR LESTE PTT Cash Maple, 2 mtpa

Evans Shoal, Pandora 1.2 mtpa

Petronas FLNG, 1.2 mtpa

Petronas FLNG 1.5 mtpa

Others:

Iraq, Shell, Mitsubishi 2 mtpa

Israel, Noble, Delek, DSME

Colombia, Exmar 0.5 mtpa

USA , Excelerate 3 mtpa, Main Pass 24 mtpa

Browse, 12 mtpa

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R/P = 98

R/P = 265 R/P = 41

FLNG Projects Firm Proposed

Iraq

Canada

USA

Colombia

Gabon

Namibia Mocambique

Israel

Malaysia

Indonesia

Australia

PNG

FLNG Projects

Under construction – 4 Pre FEED/FEED stage – 9 Study/Prospects 19

Congo

Eq. Guinea Cameroun

Mauritania

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We add value

Strategy

Asset optimisation

Sector studies

Market studies

Forecasting

Commercial and technical studies

Commercial representation

New market entry

Detailed business cases

Project finance and management

Mergers & Acquisitions

Organisational Development

Based in Singapore with consultants

in:

Bangkok

Beijing

Hong Kong

Melbourne

Perth

Sydney

Calgary

London

TRI-ZEN International Pte Ltd

Ocean Financial Centre 40-00, 10 Collyer Quay, Singapore 049315

Tel: 65 6254 4791 tony.regan@tri-zen.com