tom holt climatic research unit, university of east anglia, norwich, uk
DESCRIPTION
Relating changes in extremes to impacts over the Mediterranean: developments since the AGM and application to D6.8. Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK ENSEMBLES WP6.2, Helsinki, April, 2007. Summary. Not much time spent on WP6.2 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Relating changes in extremes to Relating changes in extremes to impacts over the Mediterranean: impacts over the Mediterranean:
developments since the AGM and developments since the AGM and application to D6.8 application to D6.8
Tom HoltClimatic Research Unit,University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
ENSEMBLES WP6.2, Helsinki, April, 2007
SummarySummary• Not much time spent on WP6.2
– Two months on another project– Work on other ENSEMBLES WPs
• RT8– Public participation in science Web site
– Stakeholders
• RT4– Ambient climatology behind Mediterranean extremes
• WP6.2– Web site– Review of models
DeSurveyDeSurvey• Data may be of use in WP6.2
– ERA-40 on 1 degree grid over Mediterranean• Standard variables• 6-hourly• 1958-2002
– Downscaling to 1 km resolution• Weighted by topography• Most of Spain and mainland Greece done• Based on above ERA-40 data
RT 8: Public web site (1)RT 8: Public web site (1)• Two sections
– ENSEMBLES– Climate change
• Need contributions– Particularly on climate change part– url:
www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~tomh/ensemblespublic
RT 8: Public web site (2)RT 8: Public web site (2)
RT 8: Public web site (3)RT 8: Public web site (3)
RT 6.2 Web siteRT 6.2 Web site
Setting the scene: labourSetting the scene: labour
• Agricultural labour as % of total labour 1961-2004
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200520
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
70%
23%
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20055
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
40%
6%
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
51%
15%
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
5
10
15
20
25
30
30%
4%
Italy1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20052
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
22%
3%
France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200540
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
78%
43%
Turkey
Setting the scene: irrigationSetting the scene: irrigation• % of crop land under irrigation 1961-2003
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20053
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
3%
7%
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20058
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
9%
20%
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200514
16
18
20
22
24
26
15%
26%
Italy
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20052
4
6
8
10
12
14
2%
14%France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
15
20
25
30
35
40
12%
38%
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20055
10
15
20
5%
18%
Turkey
Setting the scene: meat productionSetting the scene: meat production
• Meat production (tonnes) 1961-2005
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
1
2
3
4
5
6x 10
5
0.9 x 105
5.5 x 105
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
1
2
3
4
5
6x 10
6
0.7 x 106
5.8 x 106
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20053.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7x 10
6
France
6.7 x 106
3.6 x 106
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5x 10
6
1.5 x 106
4.1 x 106
Italy
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5x 10
5
1.5 x 105
5.3 x 105
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8x 10
6
0.5 x 106
1.7 x 106
Turkey
Setting the scene: exportsSetting the scene: exports
• Food exports as % of total exports 1962-2002
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20%
0.5%
oil!
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
56%
15%
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
15%
11%
France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20056
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
15%
6%
Italy
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200520
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
67%
23%
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
20
30
40
50
60
70
68%
10%
Turkey
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
Chickens (1961-2005)Chickens (1961-2005)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
2
4
6
8
10
12
14x 10
4
1 x 107
12 x 107
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20053
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13x 10
4
3 x 107
13 x 107
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7x 10
5
0.9 x 108
1.4 x 108Italy1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6x 10
5
1.6 x 108
2.4 x 108
France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3x 10
5
0.3 x 108
3 x 108
Turkey
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2x 10
4
1.4 x 107
2.4 x 107
Greece
Chickens: climate vulnerabilities
• Temperature– >25 deg C: loss of appetite, lower egg
production– >30 deg C: illness
• Water– Up to 0.3 litres/day– 3-4 times that on hot days
HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>25 deg C
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
250
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
250
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
250
1961-1980
2041-2060 2081-2100
2001-2020
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
250
HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>30 deg C
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
1961-1980
2041-2060 2081-2100
2001-2020
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
Sheep (1961-2005)Sheep (1961-2005)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2x 10
4
0.4 x 107
1.8 x 107
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6x 10
4
2.2 x 107 2.4 x 107
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4x 10
4
0.9 x 107
1.3 x 107
France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20057500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
8 x 106
11.5 x 106
Italy
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20057400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
9200
9400
9.3 x 106
7.6 x 106
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20052.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5x 10
4
3.3 x 107
4.9 x 107
Turkey
Sheep: climate vulnerabilities
• Temperature– >30 deg C: decline in milk yield and fat
content even with low humidity– >32 deg C: reproduction declines, rams can
become impotent for 2-3 months
• Water– 3.6 litres/day in winter, 14 litres/day in
summer– more on very hot days
HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>32 deg C
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
1961-1980
2041-2060 2081-2100
2001-2020
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
Tourism receipts (billion $, 1990-Tourism receipts (billion $, 1990-2001)2001)
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
iop
n $
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
Tourism
• Problems making links with climate data– Too many other variables?– Numbers of tourists might be more
appropriate statistic than income from tourists
• Lack of good data available free– Europe is trying but is not there yet
Agricultural modelsAgricultural models
• The following climate vulnerability models have been developed and can be done for all Europe (where relevant!)– Wheat– Potatoes– Chickens– Sheep– Cattle– Citrus– Olives– Grapes
D6.8 (1)D6.8 (1)
Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to flood risk, agriculture, forest and property damage – Requires models on:
• Human health• Flooding• Drought• Wind storm• Forest damage• Agriculture (not clearly specified in the DoW)
D6.8 (2)D6.8 (2)
UEA has models on:• Human health
– heat stress– Atmospheric pollution
• Drought– What impacts?
• Agriculture• + a small contribution to wind storm and flooding• return period modeling and probabilities of extremes
– Other partners are also contributing to human health and agriculture.