tns amcham 2009
TRANSCRIPT
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2008 2008 vsvs 20092009
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!! Half year 2008 Half year 2008 vsvs half year 2009half year 2009!! WealthWealth
!! Inflation / ConsumptionInflation / Consumption!! Consumer concernsConsumer concerns!! Branding Branding !! MediaMedia!! Environment Environment
Consumer Trends AgendaConsumer Trends Agenda
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GDP growth = 8.5% - OctFDI (US Billion) = $45 B - OctInflation (CPI) = 22% - OctExports ** = $48 B - SeptOverseas remittance = $8 B - DecConsumer confidence = 94%
(economy same/ better in next 12 months)Ad expenditure growth = 16%FMCG growth * = 20%Modern trade growth * = 27%
Internet users growth = 23%Car sales ^ = 30%
2009200920082008
Half year 2008Half year 2008 vsvs half year 2009 Comparisonhalf year 2009 Comparison
Source: GSO /TNS * Value growth / TNS Worldpanel ^VAMA end of August
Overall growth spend at half year is down by 25% compared to 2008While economic indices show a decline of over 50% in growth
" GDP growth = 4.5% - Oct" FDI (US Billion) = $23 B - Oct" Inflation (CPI) = 4.5% - Oct" Exports ** = $42 B - Sept"
Overseas remittance = 6.7 B - Dec" Consumer confidence = 86%
(economy same /better in next 12 months)" Ad expenditure growth= 23%" FMCG growth * = 8%" Modern trade growth * = 10%
" Internet user Growth = 25%" Car sales ^ = -19%
**Exports = End of September 09
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Vietnam by the numbers - half year 2008Vietnam by the numbers - half year 2008 vsvs 20092009Inflation down by 80%
Ad spend growth up by 23%
Internet growth up by 20%
GDP down by half
FDI down by half
Exports down by 15%
FMCG growth down 12%
Modern trade growth down by 17%
Car sales are down by 19%
As FDI & Exports accounted for US $120 Billion of the VN economy in 2008,VN will struggle moving forward, with only US $80 Billion in 2009 (est.)
H a l f y e a r c o m
p a r i s o n
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Wealth TrendsWealth Trends
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Vietnams GDP has doubled in 4 years , but only by 5% in 2009
GDP per capita evolution - USDGDP per capita evolution - USD
289
402 440
552
725
835
1,024 1,075
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 Est.
In USD
1,024
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5
7
20
24
30
14
27
37
34
27
26
31
20
20
23
12
11
5
6
12
32
18
12
11
5
3
2
4
5
3
8
4
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2008
2006
2004
2001
1999
SEC F SEC E SEC D SEC C SEC B SEC A SEC A+
HCMC Declared Monthly Household IncomeHCMC Declared Monthly Household Income
Source: TNS VietCycle: 1999-2008 =
SEC Income ScaleA1 = US $1,200 +
A = US $801 -1,200 B = US $401 - 800 C = US $400 - 276 D = US $181 - 275 E = US $126 - 180 F = US $ 45 - 125
A-B-C SEC has more than doubled in the last 4 years (+59%)
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1
6
26
46
40
7
26
44
36
37
35
38
20
11
14
23
10
4
3
5
31
18
5
3
3
1
0
1
1
1
2
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2008
2006
2004
2001
1999
SEC F SEC E SEC D SEC C SEC B SEC A SEC A+
Hanoi Declared Monthly Household IncomeHanoi Declared Monthly Household Income
SEC Income ScaleA1 = US $1,200 +
A = US $801 -1,200 B = US $401 - 800 C = US $400 - 276 D = US $181 - 275 E = US $126 - 180 F = US $ 45 - 125
Source: TNS VietCycle: 1999-2008 Base: N = 1,000
A-B-C SEC has almost doubled in the last 2 years
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Consumer ConcernsConsumer Concerns
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Quality of product and value for moneyQuality of product and value for money
The Chinese Milk scare could be felt for years &will make consumers more quality conscious
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64%
48%
39%
35%
17%
Health of my family
Personal health
Unemployment
Financial stability
Global recession TNS Consumer Poll - Jan. 09
Vietnamese main fears in life - 2009Vietnamese main fears in life - 2009
Health still tops consumers main fears, followed by money matters
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My personal standard of living forecastMy personal standard of living forecast
Source: TNS VietCycle 2006 / 2008 & TNS Consumer Confidence Poll Jan. 09
Vietnamese personal standard of living forecast for the next 12months has dropped from 70% forecasting a better living standard
in September 2008 to only 36% in January 2009
9
16
18
27
54
48
46
25
32
16
4
2
1
1
0
0
0
T NS Consumer Poll -Jan. 09
TNS VietCycle - Sept. 08
TNS VietCycle - Nov. 06
Far better A little better Same A little worse Far worse Don't know
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Will you reduce spending in 2009?Will you reduce spending in 2009?
Yes
52%
No
46%
Dont
know
2%
Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll Jan. 09
Over half of consumers shall reduce their monthly spending in 2009
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44
29
28
28
25
23
23
23
16
12
4
54
69
70
69
71
73
73
74
81
76
72
2
2
2
3
4
4
4
3
4
12
23
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
Entertainment & dining out
Home appliances (Wash machine, TV Hifi, etc)
Household utilities
Personal equipment (mobile phone, laptop ,Etc)
Communications telephone/ fax/ email
Personal care products
Transportation
House hold care products
Food & beverages products
Health care products/ services
Education
Less Same More Don't know
Consumers spending reduction in 2009?Consumers spending reduction in 2009?
Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll Jan. 09
Major Decrease
Less than25%
Stable
Base: All n = 500
Only education and healthcare seem to be unaffectedby the Global economic recession
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Brand impact Brand impact
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BRAND AS PERSONALITY (Classic Branding)
Intense CompetitionPsychographic Segmentation
Emotional / Lifestyle Ads
Saturated Market Usage Segmentation
Symbolic Ads
BRAND AS ICON (Customer Driven
Marketing)
BEYOND THE BRAND
(Post Modern Mktg)Niche Market
Needs Based SegmentationBrand Includes Company
Increasing CompetitionDemographic Segmentation
Rational Ads
BRAND AS REFERENCE
(Marketing)
Products have Power No Segmentation
No Advertising
NO BRAND(Commodity Selling)
Stage 1:Basic needs
Stage 2:Upgraded
needs
Stage 3:Social
recognition
Stage 5:Self-fulfillment
Stage 4:Esteem
Advertising Brand Consumer CycleAdvertising Brand Consumer Cycle
LOWCOMPETITION
NAVE COMPETITION
Brand aspirations and thebrand as an extension of theconsumer are now the normin Vietnam
Ralf Matthaes
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Vietnamese Brand PerceptionsVietnamese Brand Perceptions
International / healthy / badge value brands and brands of high quality are still much more preferred by VN consumers
-
32
39
50
56
56
71
73
81
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
There are no real differences between
the brands available in the market
I prefer local Vietnamese brands
Vietnamese brands are as goodas international brands
I prefer to buy well-know brands
I like to use the brand whichshows my success
Im willing to pay more for higher quality brands
I prefer brands with a health /environmental focus
I am equally concerned aboutPrice and quality
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Vietnamese brand perceptions are changingVietnamese brand perceptions are changingMy children will be very intelligent and grow-up faster as I feed her by a good quality
powder milk. I feel that I am agood mother
I always choose the most expensivedetergent which I think it has the best quality and good for my families clothes.I feel happy when my husband says toothers that I am a good housewife
Source: TNS 2007-2008 FGDs
P e o p l e s a y t h a t I a m a m o d e r n m o t h e r b e c a u s e I c h o o s e g o o d q u a l i t y b r a n d s f o r m y
b a b y . I t s h o w s
m y g r e a t l o v e f o r m y c h i l d r e n
RECOGNI TIONRECOGNI TION
S o c i a
l
S o c i a
l
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10 fastest growing brands10 fastest growing brands Half year - 2009Half year - 2009
Source: TNS Worldpanel
In 2007, 2 of the fastest growing brands were, Vietnamese, in 2008= 4 and thus far in 2009 = 8 were Vietnamese Thus, meaning that
Vietnamese brands and the Govt initiative to buy local is working
Value Share change%Market share movement
25%
22%
15%
12%
10% 10%9% 9%
8% 7%
VFRESH(Soya milk)
CHINSU(NAM NGU)
KOTEX(Pantyliner)
VFRESH(Fruit juice)
STING TRANGTIEN
TUONG AN(Margarine)
FAMI (Soyamilk)
DIELACANPHA 1
VINAMILK(UHT)
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Top-of-mind brand awareness
Top 5 foreign brands are among key technology and durablesmanufacturers
Top 5 local brands are more light manufacturers.It is interesting to see Honda in the list of Vietnamese
brand
Source: VietCycle 2009
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Perception of luxury - 2009
Car Car 54%54%
DiamondDiamond31%31%
LaptopLaptop9%9%
HomeHometheatretheatre
9%9%
OverseasOverseasholidayholiday
11%11%
HouseHouse7%7%
PlasmaPlasmaTVTV
13%13%
SecuritySecurity9%9%
Dish washer Dish washer 15%15%
GoldGoldJewelryJewelry
8%8%
Cars and Diamonds areseem as true luxury items
Source: VietCycle 2009
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Internet Internet usus @ @ gege
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Top 20 countries - internet usersTop 20 countries - internet users
Source: WorldInternetstats.com July 2009
@
Vietnam is now the 18th most active user of the internet globally.
20
20.02
21.53
23
23.99
25
26.50
27.40
28.63
29.14
37.47
38
42.05
48.76
55.22
67.51
81
94
227.63
338
Argentina
Poland
Vietnam
Iran
Canada
Indonesia
Turkey
Mexico
Spain
Italy
Korea South
Russia
France
United Kingdom
Germany
Brazil
India
Japan
United States
China
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3
89
21
34
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2001 2004 2006 2008
In-home Internet penetrationIn-home Internet penetration (Hanoi & HCMC)(Hanoi & HCMC)
Source: TNS VietCyle 1999-2008 HCMC & Hanoi
With 1 in 3 urban homes connected to internet,Internet based advertising will experience steady growth
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Online User ProfileOnline User Profile
26%
14%
24%14%
12%
10%
12%
8%35%
15%
14%
18%
Ge ne ra l Ne ti ze n*
40+
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
Age
56%
52%44%
48%
Ge ne ra l Ne tiz en*
Female
Male
Gender
63%
64%
37%
36%
General Netizen*
Married &Others
Single
Marital Status
Skewed towards young (68%
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A Shift in Advertising A Shift in Advertising
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,
TV 75
Radio0.6%
Newspapers16%
Magazines
8%
Internet (est.0.4%
TV Radio Newspapers Magazines Internet (est.)
Advertising spend breakdown - 2008Advertising spend breakdown - 2008
Source: TNS Media Co.
TV is King and has grown to 80% in 2009, asadvertisers are returning to the tried and trusted
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66%66%7%7%
4%4%7%7%
7%7%
Top 4 Daily Home activities
TV dominates followed by reading, using the computer and watching movies and listening to music
Source: VietCycle 1999-2008
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99
83
73
62 62
51
11
27
99
8576
6064
52
11
33
100
8477
6257
44
15
42
TV (Past Week) Outdoor (PastWeek)
Newspaper (Past Week)
Magazine (PastWeek)
DVD/VCD/Tape(Past Week)
Radio (PastWeek)
Cinema (Past 3Months)
Internet (PastWeek)
2006 2007 2008(%)
Base: Males and Females aged 15+ across all 4 major cities (HoChi Minh City, Hanoi, Da Nang and Can Tho)
Source: TNS Media Habits Survey (2006-2008)
Media ReachMedia Reach
TV is still King but Internet is by far thefastest-growing medium
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295
46
922 22
253
45
1024 30
233
46
821
43
TV Newspaper Magazine Radio Internet
2006 2007 2008
Base: Males and Females aged 15+ across all 4 major cities (Ho Chi Minh City,Hanoi, Da Nang and Can Tho)
Source: TNS Media Habits Survey (2006-2008)
Time Spent Per Day (Mins)
Media Exposure Trends
Time spend watching TV has decreased by 1 hour per day since 2006,while Internet is the only medium growing (21 minutes / day)
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230,000
937
42,050
828
20,500
36,980
20,429
171,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
TV Newspapers Magazines Radio
2008
2009
Ad spend half year 2008Ad spend half year 2008 vsvs half year 2009half year 2009
TV ad spend has increased by 26% andNewspaper increased by 12%, while both
Magazine & Radio have dropped.Total ad spend is up by 23% compared to 2008
(,000)
20092008
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Top 6 Growth Sectors ad spendHalf yr 2008 vs half yr 2009
The Beverage sector, followed byTelecoms has experienced the highestgrowth in Ad spend, followed by Foods,
Beauty Care, etc. Ironically, sector spend does not necessarily translate
into category growth in terms of sales
-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
Telecoms Food Hygiene &beauty care
Beverages Pharmaceuticals Householdproducts
2008 2009
66%+
35%+
34%+
93%+
15%+42%+
Source: TNS Media - June 2008-June 2009
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13,086,2
9,233,5
4,962,54,675,4
7,630,1
6,174,2
4,629,84
5,966,6
4,425,7
6,031,9
4,323,0 4,116,8
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Financial Automotive Computer &Audio Video
HouseholdAppliances
Retail Travel &Tourism
2008 2009
-65%
-36%
-29%-21%
-13% -12%
Top 6 declining Sectors ad spendTop 6 declining Sectors ad spendHalf yr 2008Half yr 2008 vsvs half yr 2009half yr 2009
Not surprisingly, the finance
sector has seen the highestdecline in ad spend in the past12 months, followed by
Automotive, whos sales havedropped by 19%
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Environmentnvironment
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I would be willing to pay 10% more for groceries/products that are more environmentally friendly
15
10
15
15
22
26
28
41
44
38
51
38
54
54
55
58
56
55
47
46
55
42
34
33
27
27
18
17
14
11
9
6
5
13
4
3
2
1
3
1
1
1
2
3
New Zealand
Japan
Hong Kong
Singapore
South Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Philippines
Chinese mainland
India
Strongly agree Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Ave
Source: Grey Group study
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
3.4
Environmental awarenessEnvironmental awareness
Evidence of increasing concern across Asia
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orecas n e nex mon sorecas n e nex mon sEnvironmental PollutionEnvironmental Pollution
5
5
7
22
17
22
9
27
23
27
40
37
36
12
9
0
0
0
T NS Consumer P oll -Jan. 09
T NS VietCycle - Sept. 08
T NS VietCycle - Nov. 06
Far better A little better Same A little worse Far worse Don't know
Source: TNS VietCycle 2006 / 2008 & TNS Consumer Confidence Poll Jan. 09
In a short time consumer sentiment towards the worseningof Vietnams polluted environment has increased by 300%!
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How do we rate VietnamHow do we rate Vietnam s environment?s environment?By SEC, age group and gender By SEC, age group and gender
Base: All respondents
We can see the next generation of adults (teens)are quite skeptical of the environmentalsituation.
Quality of Vietnam environment
252528
18
3221
292624
5257
4760
5354
515355
2016
2220
1423
171918
3122
12213
AB (n=283)
CD (n=539)
EF (n=173)
Teenagers (n=195)
Young Adults (n=185)Mature (n=296)
Older (n=324)
Male (n=503)
Female (n=497)
Very bad Fairly bad Fairly good Very good
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13
17
20
26
34
39
45
51
69
45
2
3
4
13
5
7
13
4
Less us e of motorbike / take morepublic transpor t
Use more public transport
Walk or us e more bicy cle / electricbicycle
Use energy sav ing bulbs / solar pow er lights
Recy cle / separate w aste items for recycling
Less us e plastic bags
Use less w ater
Use less energy ( gas, electricc ity)
Not litter ing
Most important Actions
What are we doing to look after the environment?Current actions vs Perceived most important action
Stopping littering isconsidered the #1 action
to fight environmentalpollution
Source: VietCycle 2009
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So letSo let s smarten ups smarten up
&&start to clean up!start to clean up!
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Is the glass half full or half empty - Synopsis
Overall spend has continued to increase on almost allconsumer categories, but growth has declined by 15% to 50%compared to 2008.
Not all sectors have been impacted the sameTelecoms / Food / Beverages / Pharmaceuticals / Household Products /Education have all maintained steady if not staggering growth
Electronics / Automotive / Travel-tourism, Computer-Audio video /Finance-banking, beauty-personal care and real estate have all seen amild to steep drop off
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Is the glass half full or half empty - Synopsis
Inversely, big ticket items such as cars and computers,
banking and real estate products have all been relegated to alater date, during these times of uncertainty.
Bottom-line:Glass is half empty due impact of global recession (EXORTS/ FDI/ MR)Glass is half full due to strong performance of domesticmarketGlass is full compared to the rest of Asia as Vietnam is 1 of
only 5 Growth economies in the region
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Thank you fo r 13 yea rs o f s upp
o r tThank you fo r 1
3 yea rs o f s uppo r t
www.tnsglobal.com