Thursday, May 4, 2023

A Prospective New Agenda for Long-Term, Conflict-Sensitive Development:

Moving from Anecdotes to an Analytical-Predictive Framework

Marc J. Cohen

Association for International Agriculture and Rural Development 42nd Annual Meeting

“Cultivating Peace: Agriculture in a World of Conflict and Violence”June 5-6, 20065

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Prevention Requires Understanding Causes

Current thinking emphasizes:• Ethnic animosities• Environmental Scarcities • “Resource Curse”

• Diamonds• Oil

• Geography

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A TALE OF TWO AFRICAN COUNTRIES

Country 1:• Depends on diamond exports• Landlocked• Has many ethnic groups• Has difficult environmental conditions• Bought Soviet arms during the Cold War

Country 2:• Diverse exports• Good ports• Ethnically homogenous• Pro-Western during the Cold War

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A TALE OF TWO AFRICAN COUNTRIES, PART 2

Country 1 = Peaceful, prosperous, democratic Botswana

Country 2 = Strife-torn Somalia, which is ruled by competing armed groups

Conclusion:The policy contexts in which conflict-inducing

factors play out matter greatly

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DOES SOWING AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT YIELD A HARVEST OF PEACE?

Yes, in Kenya• Smallholder dairy farming• Horticulture production for export• Maize breeding• New soil conservation practices

Yes, in Mali• Rapid growth in the cotton sector

Yes, in Zambia• Maize breeding• New soil conservation practices

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DOES SOWING AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT YIELD A HARVEST OF PEACE? Part 2

BUT:

Somalia and pre-genocide Rwanda received considerable amounts of agricultural aid

Again, socio-economic and policy contexts make all the difference