three work/technology global scenarios for...
TRANSCRIPT
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Three Work/Technology Global Scenarios for 2050
Jerome C. Glenn, CEO
The Millennium Project
World Strategy Forum 2016
Seoul, Korea
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When this begins to happen, the speed of increasing AI’s intelligence will
be far faster and produce more change than Moore’s Law
by responding to feedback from sensor networks worldwide, will accelerate AI’s intelligence worldwide… moment by moment
Artificial General Intelligence and/or Super Intelligence… that can autonomously “write” and improve its code…
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Will our artificial Brains out think us?
Artificial Intelligence 1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence 2. Artificial General Intelligence 3. Artificial Super Intelligence
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Computational Science
Computational biology
Computational Chemistry
Computational Physics All accelerated with Moore’s Law AND autonomous AI programing worldwide
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These three together will change…
what we think is possible
Artificial Intelligence
Moore’s Law
Computational Science
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Increasing Intelligence: both Individual and Collective Intelligence
EU, US, China Human Brain Projects; Google & IBM artificial brain projects
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Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991
By 2030 billions of people
could be augmented
geniuses, and what could
they create?
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Old Way of Seeing Future
Technologies
Artificial Intelligence
Robotic manufacturing
Computational Science
3-D4-D Priting
Nanotechnology
Quantum computing
Synthetic Biology
Drones
Artificial General Intelligence
Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybody the Semantic Web
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Future Way of Seeing Future
Technologies - Integration/Synergies
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Future Technology Synergies
Robotic manufacturing
Drones
Quantum computing
Robotic manufacturing
3D,4D Printing
Augmented Reality Tele-Presence, Holographics
Nanotechnology Artificial General
Intelligence Tele-Everything
Tele-Everybody the Semantic Web
Increasing individual and collective intelligence
Synthetic Biology
Nanotechnology
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Future Technology Synergies
Artificial Intelligence
Robotic manufacturing Quantum computing
Drones
Future Technology
Robotic manufacturing
3D,4D Printing
Augmented Reality, Tele-Presence, Holographics
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Integration of photovoltaics, robotics, satellites,
AI, drones, ICT, and generic engineering
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If \ Then Nano-
technology
Synthetic
Biology
Artificial
Intelligence
Robotics 3-D Printing Augmented
Reality
Nano-
technology xxx
Synthetic
Biology xxx
Artificial
Intelligence xxx Robotics
xxx 3-D Printing
xxx Augmented
Reality xxx
Emerging Technologies Matrix
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IoT AI Contact Lens – always in Virtual
Reality connected to the word
Hands-free, phone free,
laptop free, AI-human
symbiosis
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Humans becoming cyborgs
Conscious-Technology Age
Built environment becoming intelligent
When the distinction between
these two mega trends becomes
blurred, we will have reached the
Post-Information Age
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Simplification/Generalization of History
and an Alternative Future
Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time
Agricultural Extraction
Food/Res
Religion
Land
Earth/Res
Location
Cyclical
Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear
Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible
Conscious-Technology
Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented
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Consciousness
Technology
Technology Changes Consciousness and
Consciousness Changes Technology
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Future Mind: Artificial Intelligence
by
Jerome C. Glenn
Merging the Mystical and the
Technological in the
21st Century
1989
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If you can’t beat AI,
why not join with it?
…and evolve together?
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Inevitability of New Economics
• Concentration of wealth is increasing
• Income gaps are widening
• Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm
• Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually
better than labor
• Future technologies can replace much of human labor
• Long-term structural unemployment is a “business as
usual” surprise free forecast
• What can we do about this?
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Future of Work/Technology 2050 Study
1. Literature and Related Research Review
2. Real-Time Delphi
3. Road Maps and Scenario Drafts
4. RTDelphi Feedback on the Scenarios
5. Final Scenarios, Policy Implications, and produce initial report
6. Initial Report as input to the National Planning Workshops
7. Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze &
synthesize results
8. Final report for public discussion
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Global Work/Technology Scenarios 2050
1. It’s Complicated - A Mixed Bag
2. Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair
3. If Humans Were Free – The Self-Actualizing Economy
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Global Employment Scenario Assumptions
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 1 Billion
Self-Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 3 Billion
Unemployed or
in transition 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion
Informal
Economy 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion
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Will STEM Education (S&T, Engineering,
Mathematics) Make a Difference?
After 2030 as AI
learns how to learn
in general,
simultaneously
and world/wide?
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Examples of Issues for Korea’s
Long-Rang Strategy?
1. Education: How should education, training, and learning systems
change? And what strategies will make that happen?
2. Government: Will a guaranteed income program become necessary?
What kind? When? Cash flow projections to show what is possible?
3. S&T (AI/Robotics/synthetic biology/nanotech) changes affecting work by
2025, 2035, 2050?
4. Culture: What changes in culture will be needed? culture that says
jobs/employment is the source of self-respect?
5. Business: What should be the roles of private business in a national
long-range strategy? Reducing income gaps and concentration of wealth.
These issues become the Workshops Groups
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Some Considerations for Korea’s Strategy
Education/Learning: • Make increasing intelligence an objective of education
• In parallel to STEM, create self-paced inquiry-based learning for self-actualization
• Begin shift from mastering a profession to mastering combinations of skills
• Increased focus on developing creativity, critical thinking, human relations, philosophy,
entrepreneurship, self-employment, ethics, and values.
Government: • Produce alternative cash flow projections for universal basic income (consider: License and
tax AI/robots and their creations, reduction of tax havens, value added tax, and taxes on
carbon, massive wealth growth from new technologies, minimum corporate tax, etc.).
• Work with other countries to establish the International S&T Organization (ISTO)
• Create and implement a global counter organized crime strategy
• Add TransInstitutional law in addition to for-profit and non-profit law
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Some Considerations for Korea’s Strategy
Science & Technology • Augment Movement – Tech to augment humans; not replace them
• What are the likely impacts of AI and AGI? When?
• Could synthetic biology create more jobs than AI replaces?
• Create ISTO (International S&T Organization as an online collective intelligence system
not as a mew bureaucracy)
Culture: • Arts, media, entertainment, computer games to explore cultural transition to
self-actualization economy
• Media/Arts Alliance to create the “One Species” movement
• Invest into what replaces you.
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Some Considerations for Korea’s Strategy
Business:
Invest in and promote Kickstarter-like crowd sourcing platforms to expand business startups and share the wealth of success
Create personal AI/Avatars to support self-employment
Individual augment genius apps
International collaboration to create ISTO
Synergetic intelligence, synergetic advantage and strategy as well as competitive
intelligence, completive advantage and strategy
Qualitivity as well as productivity
Memes in advertisements to help create the cultural transition
World Billionaires Club on Global Strategic Philanthropy
World Cyber Game to explore self-employment
New roles for labor unions – Augment Movement; NT Data base
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Strategic Questions:
• Will synthetic biology create microbes to clean the plaque
in the brain making the elderly more productive?
• Will AI re-write its own code and set its own goals?
• Will the job culture change to accept self-employment for
self-actualizaton?
• Will next technologies create more jobs that they replace?
• Can universal basic income be financially sustainable?
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Future Work/Tech Strategic Planning
Workshop Process
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For further information
Jerome C. Glenn +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
www.StateoftheFuture.org
Global Futures Intelligence System: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html
2015-16 State of the Future: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html
Futures Research Methodology 3.0: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html