thomas w. o’donnell the new school university, nyc graduate international affairs -&-
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The Failure of Bio-Fuel Alternatives, The Abundance of Cheap Fossil Fuels, & Bio-Fuel Harm to Food Supply & Price What is to be Done?. AID, New School Panel, 25 March 2011: Food Crisis & Impact on Developing Countries. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Failure of Bio-Fuel Alternatives,The Abundance of Cheap Fossil Fuels,
& Bio-Fuel Harm to Food Supply & PriceWhat is to be Done?
The Failure of Bio-Fuel Alternatives,The Abundance of Cheap Fossil Fuels,
& Bio-Fuel Harm to Food Supply & PriceWhat is to be Done?
Thomas W. O’Donnell
The New School University, NYCGraduate International Affairs
-&-Universidad Central de Venezuela, CENDES, Caracas
Ohio State University, Columbus, OH – S2011
AID, New School Panel, 25 March 2011: Food Crisis & Impact on Developing Countries
AID, New School Panel, 25 March 2011: Food Crisis & Impact on Developing Countries
Outline
1. The Failure of Bio-Fuel Alternatives2. The Abundance of Cheap Fossil Fuels 3. Bio-Fuel Harm to Food Supply & Price4. What is to be Done?
History and projections
IEA of OECD
Demand
EIA of U.S. DoE
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/howard070106.pdf
Transport problems
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/howard070106.pdf
Cifras de 2006
Transport problems
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/howard070106.pdf
Cifras de 2006
Transport emissions due to petroleum!
Problematic renewable hydrocarbon “alternative"
http://www.iea.org/textbase/country/graphs/weo_2006/gr12.jpg
"Alternativa" de hidrocarburos renovables
1. El etanol – Balance de energía – No celulósicas de maíz– celulósicas de maíz y no consumibles – La caña de azúcar, ejemplo Brasil– Monto de la tierra, elección de la tierra, los precios de los alimentos (geo-
estrategia más tarde)– Costo, las subvenciones– Mínimo impacto en la autosuficiencia (geo-estrategia más tarde) 2. Bio-diesel
http://www.iea.org/textbase/country/graphs/weo_2006/gr12.jpg
Corn Ethanol Production . . .expect to use 27% of ’07 corn crop for nearly 9 bil. gal.
0123456789
10
1980
/01
1983
/04
1986
/07
1989
/90
1992
/93
1995
/96
1998
/99
2001
/02
2004
/05
2007
/08F
Bill
ion
gallo
ns
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Perc
ent
Ethanol Share of Corn Production
Source: Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDAEIA Energy Outlook, Modeling, and Data ConferenceMarch 28, 2007
27%
Bush “20 in 10” Proposal Reduce U.S. gasoline use by 20% in
the next 10 years
Path:– Modify CAFÉ– Require 3 billion gallons of renewable
and alternative fuels by 2017
Easy to achieve?
Role of Ethanol and Biodiesel ?
Source: Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDA
Change in Fuel Use Since 2005 Met by Ethanol/Biodiesel
01020304050607080
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
% S
hare
Met
by
E&B
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Cha
nge
in U
se (q
uad
BTU
s)
Source: 2007 EIA Annual Energy Outlook
∆ Total Gas/Distillate Use
∆ E/B use
E/B share of ∆ total fuel use
Source: Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDA
Projected Corn Ethanol Production… The.
Source: USDA, 2009See notes herein
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 ("EISA")
• Renewable Fuel Standard ("RFS") increases bio-fuel production
• Funding encourages production of cellulosic and advanced biofuels.
• EISA signed Dec 07, took effect Jan 09.
• Under the EISA, the RFS will be expanded from the original mandate of – 7.5 billion gallons by 2012 to – 36 billion gallons by 2022– Minimum portions of the mandate must be satisfied by
advanced biofuel, cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel.
Projected Corn Ethanol Production… The.
Source: USDA, 2009See notes herein
USDA Baseline Biofuel Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
Bill
ion
gallo
ns
Ethanol Biodiesel
“20 in 10”
22 billion deficit
Source: Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDA
Chief Economist
USDA --
ethanol efficiency
improvements
2010 report(2005 & 2008 data)
19810
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
US Corn Ethanol
Production Ethanol
%
Mill
ion
Bush
els
1981$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
US Corn Ethanol
$/bushel %
Pric
e (
$/bu
shel
)
Corn Ethanol Production . . .expect to use 27% of ’07 corn crop for nearly 9 bil. gal.
0123456789
10
1980
/01
1983
/04
1986
/07
1989
/90
1992
/93
1995
/96
1998
/99
2001
/02
2004
/05
2007
/08F
Bill
ion
gallo
ns
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Perc
ent
Ethanol Share of Corn Production
Comment (TO’D):9 b gal is 10 days U.S. consumption, but 27% corn acres
Source: Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDAEIA Energy Outlook, Modeling, and Data ConferenceMarch 28, 2007
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300US Cereals and bakery products
1982-84 = 100
Retail cost
Farm-to-retail spread
Source: USDASee notes herein
Food and Oil Commodity Prices
Corn
Rice
Wheat
Oil
1980 1986 1991 1996 2003 2011
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com
23
Oil Consumption per capita
EIA 2003
Gallons per day
per capita
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com
24
Ethanol
Oil Consumption per capita
Gallons per day
per capita
The Failure of Bio-Fuel Alternatives
What sort of “energy independence” can cellulosic corn-based ethanol bring to the U.S.?
• To replace U.S. gas production with ethanol made from corn – the dominant and government-subsidized mode of producing ethanol in the U.S. Consider:
• Use claims from articles in NATURE: Note, the oil consumption of the U.S. is about 21 million barrels per day (21 mbbl/d).
• Hence, two Iowas, totally dedicated to producing corn for ethanol, AND, using not today’s methods of corn-to-ethanol production, but the as-yet not fully developed cellulosic methods, whereby nearly the entire corn plant, not merely the starches and sugars of the corn kernels, was turned to into ethanol, would replace, approximately:
• 1/21 * 100 ~ 5% of U.S. oil demand. Not what one would call “energy independence;” nor would it bode well for the price of corn flakes or Mexican tortillas, etc.
Oil Theories
Source: US DoEHubbert’s ½-depletion peak
Reserves
“An oil transition is not a shift from abundance to scarcity: fossil fuel resources abound. Rather, the oil transition is shift from high quality resources to lower quality resources that have increased risks of environmental damage, as well other risks”. Environ. Res. Lett. 1 (2006) A E Farrell and A R Brandt
Reservas Increasingly uncertain resources
Potential for liquid hydrocarbon production (Gbbl)
To be consumed
Already consumed
Reserves
“An oil transition is not a shift from abundance to scarcity: fossil fuel resources abound. Rather, the oil transition is shift from high quality resources to lower quality resources that have increased risks of environmental damage, as well other risks”. Environ. Res. Lett. 1 (2006) A E Farrell and A R Brandt
Reservas Increasingly uncertain resources
Potential for liquid hydrocarbon production (Gbbl)
To be consumed
Already consumed
“Long Term World Oil Supply: A Resource Base / Production Path Analysis” Energy Information Administration (EIA), DOE, 2000). http://www.umich.edu/~twod/oil-ns/articles/longterm_usgs_oil_peak_estim_eia2006.pdf
The authors’ note: “EIA presentation on estimates of the world conventional oil resource base and the year when production from it will peak and then begin to decline. A version of this presentation was given by former EIA Administrator Jay Hakes to the April 18, 2000 meeting of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) in New Orleans, Louisiana.”
“U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000 – Description and Results” “Chapter ES” (i.e., “Executive Summary”): http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/WEcont/chaps/ES.pdf
The USGS 2000 report referred to, and used in, the above EIA report: http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/ and often referred to very negatively by adherents of the Peak Oil school.
References
The problem of transportation Efficiency = 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x …
Masstransport vans, busses,trains, metros
Batteries
Petroleum CoalNaturalGas Water NuclearBio-
combustibles
Refinery Liquefy Hydroelectric Thermoelectric
Solar y wind
Individual:Automobiles, motorcycles, light trucks
Internal combustion Hydrogen cell
Mass transport: Vans, busses,trains, metros
Hydrogen
Ethanol & Diesel
3-4323-4
Transmission3
Electric motors
Electric motor
95%
FrictionFriction Friction
There are no “alternative fuels” able to transform today’s transport system in accord with:- Environment - Agriculture - Information revolution economy - Congestion & sprawl - Social justice
What To Do?
- Transform transportation itself not its fuel This need not be a ‘utopian’ program
References
5. Conclusions
Projected Corn Ethanol Production… expect 12 bil. gal. in 2016/17– 30% of corn crop
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Bill
ion
gallo
ns
Source: Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDA
Projected Soy Biodiesel Production… expect 700 mil. gal. in 2016/17 – 23% of soyoil production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16
Mill
ion
gallo
nsNota
Source: Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDA