Thomas Veillet December 16th 2008

2008 IT’S OVER !!!

2Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Top Words of 2008

BailoutSubprimeCredit CrisisState BanksBillionsTrillions Paulson (Hank)Paulson (John)BernankeAIGLehmanBear StearnsBear MarketVolatilityObama

Chapter 11ForeclosureOilCommoditiesHedge FundsLeverageCapital ProtectedETFRate cutAutomakerWorst off reverse convertibleJérôme Madoff

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Picture of the year / S&P5001576

741

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NRJ Award of the year

96$

147$

40.5$

What a ride…

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Gold Medal

1032

680

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Vix : A Brand New World…

89%

10%

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Hedge Fund Year

HFRX US Global Hedge Fund Index Net Asset Value

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Man of the year

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Numbers of the year

700 Billions TARP 89.53% of Volatility on the S&P500 200 Billions for Freddie & Fannie 130 Billions for AIG 306 Billions for Citigroup 540 Billions for Mortgage refinancing 1000 Euros, price paid on Volkswagen on the 28th of October -60% performance of the China Index CSI300 -70% performance of the Russian Index 10 trillions is the value in $, destroyed by the US market this year 100$, the spread between the top and the low of the year for the

barel 1032.70 historical high for the Gold, the 8th of April 2008 +33% Best performance of the S&P500 for 2008 (Rohm & Haas) -96.57% Worst performance of the S&P500 for 2008 (AIG) 50 billions dollars fraud

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Key dates for 2008

January 24 (S&P500 1352) The National Association of Realtors announced that 2007 has seen the

largest drop in existing home sales in 25 years. We speak about « Great Depression »

March 16 (S&P500 1276.60) Bear Stearns is out of the game, JP Morgan make a « take-under » at 2$.

The deal is backed by the FED providing $30B to cover possible losses. May 6 (S&P1418)

UBS announce that they gonna cut 5’500 by middle 2009 June 18 (S&P1337)

Christopher Dodd (Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee) propose le Bailout de Countrywide Financial and admit at the same time that he got some support from the same Countrywide during is campaign

June 19 (S&P500 1342) Ex_Bear Stearns Fund Managers were arrested for fraud. They

misrepresented the real value of their funds.

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Key dates for 2008

July 11 (S&P500 1239) Indymac Bank is gone… It became the fourth largest bank failure in US. The

Credit Crisis start to take it’s toll. Indy was the seventh larger originator of mortgage in USA, and the Crude Oil is hitting historical new high, we’ve never see that level since then.

July 17 (S&P500 1260) Major banks and financial institutions had borrowed and invested heavily in

mortgage backed securities and reported losses of approximately $435 billion as of 17 July 2008

July 30 (S&P500 1284) President Bush signs a law who ‘s going to give some help to subprime

borrowers. Bill : 300 $BN.. September 7 (S&P500 1267)

Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which at that point owned or guaranteed about half of the U.S.'s $12 trillion mortgage market, effectively nationalizing them. This causes panic because almost every home mortgage lender and Wall Street bank relied on them to facilitate the mortgage market and investors worldwide owned $5.2 trillion of debt securities backed by them .

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Key dates for 2008

September 14 (S&P500 1251) Merill Lynch is gone… sold to Bank of America to avoid chapter 11

September 15 (S&P500 1192) Lehman Brother is gone… This time the Government failed to find a solution

and Lehman is out of the game and filing for chapter 11. Didn’t apply for the rule « to big to fail »

September 16 (S&P500 1213) The Genius from Moody’s & S&P are downgrading the rating of AIG forcing

them to go on the ground. September 17 (S&P500 1156)

The US Federal Reserve loans $85 billion to American International Group (AIG) to avoid bankruptcy.

September 21 (S&P500 1207) Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley becomes banks

September 23 (S&P 1188) Paulson propose a first version of the Rescue plan

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Key dates for 2008

September 25 (S&P500 1209) Washington Mutual was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation,

and its banking assets were sold to JP MorganChase for $1.9bn. September 29 (S&P500 1106)

Wachovia is out of the game, reminds will be boughts by Citigroup, but a fight will explode between Wells Fargo & Citi and Wells Fargo will get the cake.

October 1 (S&P500 1161) US Senate passes the 700 billions TARP plan, President will sign it on the 3rd.

The Hedge Funds Insustry have had their worst month since… a longtime. Credit Crisis is spreading in Europe.

Warren Buffet invest in Goldman Sachs October 6-10 (S&P500 899.22)

Worst week for the stock market in 75 years. The Dow Jones lost 22.1 percent, its worst week on record, down 40.3 percent since reaching a record high of 14,164.53 October 9, 2007. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 18.2 percent, its worst week since 1933, down 42.5 percent in since its own high October 9, 2007

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Key date for 2008

October 6 (S&P500 1056) Fed will provide $900 billion in short-term cash loans to banks

October 7 (S&P500 996) Fed makes emergency move to lend around $1.3 trillion directly to companies

outside the financial sector. October 8 (S&P500 984)

Central banks in USA, England, China, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland and the European Central Bank cut rates in a coordinated effort to aid world economy.

Fed also reduced its emergency lending rate to banks by half a percentage point, to 1.75 percent.

White House considers taking ownership stakes in private banks as a part of the bailout bill.

October 11 (S&P500 899.22) Historical record of volatility 89.53%, even Michael Phelps couldn’t go that fast… The G7, meet in Washington and agree to urgent and exceptional coordinated

action to prevent the credit crisis from throwing the world into depression. The G7 did not agree on the concrete plan that was hoped for.

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Key dates for 2008

October 16 (S&P500 946) The Swiss Confederation in becoming shareholder of UBS.

October 21 (S&P500 955) The US Federal Reserve announces it will spend $540 billion to purchase short-

term debt from money market mutual funds. November 4

Barack « Superman » Obama has landed November 12 (S&P500 852)

Treasury Secretary Paulson abandons plan to buy toxic assets under the $700 billion troubled asset relief program (TARP). Mr. Paulson said the remaining $410 billion in the fund would be better spent on recapitalizing financial companies.

November 15 (S&P500 850) The group of 20 of the world’s largest economies meets in Washington DC and

releases a statement of the meeting. Although no detailed plans were agreed upon, the meeting focused on implementing policies consistent with five principles; 1) strengthening transparency and accountability, 2) improving regulation, 3) promoting market integrity, 4) reinforcing cooperation, and 5) reforming international institutions.

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Key dates for 2008

November 24 (S&P500 850) Citigroup is rescued and becomes most recent bailout in history (until

GM, Chrysler & Ford).. Government will inject more than 20 billions in capital and offer a guarantee up to 300 billions for toxic assets.

December 10 (S&P500 910) Automaker got their bailout almost…

December 12 (S&P500 900) Senat says : NO !!!! Gm, Chrysler & Ford are back to hybrid again… But Treasury says : YES BUT!!!... This story can on forever…

December 15 (S&P500 870) Bernard Madoff is kicking Jérôme Kerviel out of the first place.. And is

taking a huge lead over the rest…. December 16 (S&P850)

Fed is cutting rates… again we’re getting very close to 0….@ 0.25%

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Merry X-Mas & Happy New Year

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Quotes of the year

"And according to 'The Washington Post,' during his eight years in office, President Bush spent 2,496 hours on the treadmill, elliptical machine, and mountain bike. And spent another 15 minutes working on the economy." --Jay Leno

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Thomas VeilletMorningbull

Solution for 2009