Thomas J. Keil and Viviana Andreescu

Environmental Satisfaction and Local Migration Potential in Romania

Introduction

Romania, along with other parts of Eastern and Central Europe, experienced significant levels of environmental damage during the communist epoch. The degradation of Romania's environment emerged from a complex of domestic historical, political, economic, and ideological factors, as well as international factors stemming from its geopolitical location.

Goldman (1972); Hohman, Seidenstecher, and Vajna (1973); Fullenbach (1977); and DeBardeleben (1985) all have identified elements of what came to be official, party/state Marxist ideology that contribute to a disregard for the natural environment. Among the more important ideological elements are the fact that official state ideologies privileged technology as a solution to problems of economic growth and that Marxist ideology created economic obstacles against raising the costs for the use of natural resources in the production process (Goldman, 1972; Hohman, Seidenstecher, and Vajna, 1973; Fullenbach, 1977; and Busch-Luty, 1981). In discussing the role of ideology on the communist regimes' attitudes toward the environment, DeBardeleben (1985, p. 99) identifies the importance of "... materialism, anthropomorphism; the scientific-technical domination of nature, ecological optimism" as critical influences on the mode in which Marxist regimes responded to environmental issues, problems, and crises. She notes that while Marxist regimes shared most of these ideological assumptions with non-Marxist, Western societies, there is an important difference between the Marxist and non-Marxist, Western states. The difference lies in the fact that official Marxism never was able to produce an alternative vision of how humanity ought to relate to the environment, while Western market economies were able to generate a large number of such alternative visions. To this it might be added that the relatively greater openness of the Western, capitalist regimes allowed for the implementation of parts of this vision, thus avoiding, to a greater degree than the Marxist states, high levels of environmental despoliation.

With respect to political economy, a key factor in accounting for what happened with respect to environmental policy in Eastern Europe was the model for economic development put into place by the various Marxist regimes. Prior to 1989, Romania, like other Eastern and Central European regimes, followed a policy of economic development wherein comprehensive industrialization was seen to be the main pathway to modernization. Industrialization entailed a massive restructuring of the social and economic arrangements of the country. Among the major industries developed in

Romania during the communist period were petro-chemicals, heavy equipment manufacturing, automobile production, agricultural heavy equipment manufacturing, steel, ship building, railroad transportation equipment production, wood products, cement and building materials, the mining of relatively high sulfur coal, electrical equipment, and optical devices, to name just a few of the more significant industries. Between 1945 and 1989, most of the state investment went to the development of heavy industry and, from the mid-1970s onward, investment was directed mainly at heavy industry that produced for export markets (see Anuarul Statistic al Republicii Socialiste Romania, various years).

The drive toward industrialization was coupled with a rural collectivization campaign which virtually eliminated all large-scale, private, agricultural production for the market. The resulting large state farms and agricultural cooperatives were built around principles of mechanized agriculture that was energy intensive. It also required the development of complex irrigation systems and the heavy use of manufactured fertilizers, all of which contributed to environmental damage, directly or indirectly.

Before the Second World War, Romania largely was an agricultural country, the economic development of which lagged considerably behind that of the Western parts of Europe. Romania, like much of the area East of the lime that divided Eastern Europe into two zones of development prior to the start of World War I1 (see Chirot, 1989), had political and economic forms that were distinctive compared to Western Europe and to central Europe. It has been noted that Eastern Europe's economic underdevelopment was not something new in European history. It can be traced back at least to the fifteenth century, when Western Europe, in response to a grain crisis, began to lay the foundations for the development of capitalist relations of production, first, in agriculture, and, later in manufacturing. In response to the same crisis, Eastern Europe underwent a process of refeudalization (see Chirot, 1989). From this initial differential response to the same conditions, East was divided from West and the East was further subdivided into Mitteleuropa and a region to the East of it, where democratic political forms were less common and where modem forms of economic organization were largely absent. It is in this latter area that Romania is located. Coupled with the different social structures that began emerging, Eastern Europe further was differentiated in terms of the imperial powers that held sway over the area. Those regions under the hegemony of the Austro-Hungarian Empire developed differently from those dominated by Muscovy and, in turn, both of these regions were different from the areas controlled by the Ottoman Empire. Different territories of modern Romania were once held by each of these empires at various times.

Each of these imperial powers treated the areas they conquered and controlled as zones to be exploited. While the forms of colonial exploitation diiered across and within the empires, one constant was that the colonized regions were not allowed to have autonomous economic development and, as a result, did not have the freedom to develop along Western economic lines.

The emerging economies in Eastern Europe were placed in a position of supplying raw materials and semi-finished goods to Western Europe and, in return, they received various finished goods. This pattern of exchange, by and large, was unequal and it

helped maintain and extend existing patterns of uneven development across the European landscape and also within Eastern and Central European economies.

One of the principal goals of the communist regimes that came into power in Eastern Europe after 1945 was rapid economic development so as to try to overcome the economic gap between them and the Western European states. The new communist states used the economic model put into place in the Soviet Union (see Pipes, 1974) as the definitive example of how industrialization and, hence, economic growth could be accomplished in a relatively short time under extremely adverse conditions. Romania was no exception to this pattern.

Almost immediately after coming to power, Romania's communist regime began laying the foundation for industrial development. This meant major shifts in populations from the countryside to the cities and larger towns, where factory systems were being put into place or enlarged. In 1920,78.6% of Romania's population was rural; by 1948 this had dropped slightly to 76.6%. But, by 1956 the percentage of the population that was rural declined by 12.1% to 68.7%. In 1966, the percentage of the population that was rural stood at 61.8% and in 1977, it was 56.4%. By 1992, only 45.6% of Romania's population lived outside of municipalities and cities (Recensamintul Populatiei si Locuintelor: Rezultate Preliminare, 1992,12). While this percentage is high by Western standards, it represents a dramatic change in Romania since the end of the Second World War.

Such large scale population redistribution created demands for development of an urban infrastructure to house and meet the needs of the newly arriving migrants. This served to stimulate further industrial development. The large population transfers from the hinterland to towns and cities, in part, was made possible by agricultural collectivization which helped rationalize food production at the same time that it created large pools of surplus labor in the countryside.

Romania's rapid investment in industry seemed to have been a rational and effective economic strategy during the 1%0s. By that time, the population, overall, was being better fed, better housed, better educated, and was receiving better health care than it had at any time during its modern history. The country's growing affluence was not the result only of endogenous forces. Because of its relative independence from the Soviet Union in military and foreign policy, it had a "most favored nation status" with the United States and it had access to Western credits to assist its economic development.

There, however, were severe problems that were eroding the long-term growth potential of the economy, so that just as it appeared to be poised for si&~cant economic advance, instead it began a rapid plunge into economic and, ultimately, political chaos (see Keil, 1994 for a general discussion of the processes of regime collapse in Eastern Europe). One aspect of this plunge into economic chaos was a continuing state investment in heavy industry, even after economic signals began to show that this was a counterproductive policy (Ronnas, 1991).

One of the legacies of the particular way in which Romania and other Eastern and Southern European countries built their industrial infrastructures has been a wasted natural environment. Within the geopolitical context in which the industrial system was put in place in Eastern and Southern Europe there were few correctives built into the

system to prevent despoliation of the environment. From the Baltic to the Black Sea, half a century of accelerated industrialization and agricultural collectivization has stained the landscape of Eastern Europe. A great gray blotch covers the "dirty triangle" formed by the coal belt of northern Czechoslovakia, eastern Germany, and the Silesian district of southern Poland. Highly acidic rain falls in the same area and extends in a streak to the east. In this region pollution controls are often non-existent. Eastern Europe also experiences the fallout from acid-rains coming from the West, due to winds that bring pollutants from as far as Britain. More than 600,000 acres of woodland have been damaged in Poland, and close to one million acres in Czechoslovakia. Eastern Europe's network of rivers also has become a system for waste disposal. This is particularly the case for the Danube, recipient of the waste of eight nations. Industrial waste pollutes nearly seventy per cent of Bulgaria's farm land and sixty five per cent of its river water. One in ten Hungarians lack access to safe drinking water and half of Czechoslovakia's drinking water fails to meet the country's own health standards. One third of Poland's thirty eight million people live in "ecological hazard areas, according to the Polish Academy of Science (Thomson, 1991).

In the West two processes have stood out as limits to such vast levels of environmental degradation. One is the relatively open character of the political system, which provided social and political space for the emergence of relatively strong environmental movements. In Eastern Europe there was little room for such political and social action, although environmental movements did develop in Czechoslovakia and Hungary (Bernhard, 1993). In Romania, comparable movements did not develop, as the regime was more effective than were others in Eastern and Central Europe in blocking the emergence and sustained development of independent social movements that stood in opposition, no matter how minor, to regime policies.

The human right to an unpolluted environment was stipulated in the constitutions of Czechoslovakia (1968), Hungary (1974) - modified and republished after 1990, and the former Yugoslavia (1972). In Romania, Law 911973, concerning the protection of the environment, as well as the former and the present constitutions, do not explicitly confirm a right to a healthy environment as being one of the fundamental human rights and liberties (Lupan, 1993). This right to live in an unpolluted environment was promulgated as a fundamental human right, along with the rights of equality and freedom, as part of the first principle of the Declaration Concerning the Environment in Stockholm in 1972 (Lustacz, 1979). Such constitutional rights to a healthy environment offered a point of mobilization against these regimes which was lacking in the Romanian state structures.

Another factor that prevented setting limits to environmental degradation was the absence of a market that would have forced directors of enterprises to be more careful in husbanding their resources so as to operate more efficiently. The absence of an effective market also freed prices from scarcity constraints in the use of natural resources. Nowhere in the chain of production processes was there a market constraint applied to the consumption of resources. The same relation held in the circulation of goods. Prices did not reflect the costs of environmental despoliation, either directly or indirectly.

Finally, in the case of Romania, one must add to the list of factors that led to environmental damage the personal, idiosyncratic ideological and political practices of Nicolae Ceausescu. Two major projects that had negative environmental side-effects were the "systematization program" (Ronnas, 1989, 1991) and the Black Sea-Danube River Canal project. There were no sound economic rationales behind either program. In the case of systematization, the purpose was totally ideological. It was an attempt to eliminate the differences between the quality of life in the countryside and life in the cities, creating a common set of living conditions for the entire population. The canal project, likewise, did not have an economic basis, it seems to have been more of a prestige project that ended up consuming vast amounts of resources and that altered the ecology of the region through which it passed in not entirely beneficial ways.

It is just now that we are beginning to understand the full dimensions of environmental degradation in Eastern and Central Europe. Most of the research that has been done on this issue has tended to focus on the adverse effects pollution has had on the natural environment and its various ecosystems. Little work has been carried out looking at the consequences for human populations.This is the objective of our present study. Our research goal is to determine how perceptions of environmental deterioration influence respondents' expressed desires to migrate from their present locality.

Data and Methods

The present study examines the migration intentions resulting from a perception that one's local environment is inadequate. We use data collected from two communities in Romania, Copsa Mica and Bucuresti. Bucuresti, by far, is the largest city in Romania, numbering over two million inhabitants. It has a highly diversified population living under conditions of varying environmental quality. However, in almost all neighborhoods of the city, residents are subjected to a variety of pollutants. There are virtually no controls on auto emissions in Romania and the country still has high lead content in its gasoline. There are no factories with sophisticated controls on the emission of waste products. In addition, a chief source of energy for the country is a low grade, high sulfur coal, the burning of which throws large volumes of pollutants into the atmosphere on a daily basis, subjecting the population of Bucuresti and other large cities to a daily assault on its environment. Bucuresti has no sewage-treatment plant, and in fact, most of the country's sewage plants do not work properly. There also are places in Bucuresti where the integrity of the local water supply has been compromised, due to poor maintenance of facilities and deterioration caused by damage to the water system in the 1977 earthquake that struck the city. In some parts of the city, the water has a high lead content. Added to all of this is a heavy concentration of dust in the air.

Copsa Mica represents a different case. It is one of the most heavily polluted cities in Romania. Most of Copsa Mica's 7,000 residents depend for their livelihood, directly or indirectly, on a plant that produces the substance for making tires and a nearby lead factory. Houses, trees, animals, and the whole landscape are blackened by virtue of the

presence of permanent snowfalls of carbon black. If inhaled, carbon black can aggravate bronchitis and asthma. Even greater health risks in Copsa Mica, however, come from high soil levels of lead, zinc, and cadmium residuals coming from the local lead plant. Along with the pollutants from the chemical and metallurgical plants, residents of Copsa Mica also share exposure to the same general levels and types of pollutants common to all cities in Romania, such as those that come from gasoline consumption and the use of low sulphur coals for energy production.

Data were analyzed by means of logistic regression, a multivariate technique for estimating directly the probability that an event occurs. We began by estimating a complete main effect model and we next eliminated non-significant predictors, estimating a reduced form main effect model. The endogenous variable in the model was formed from responses to the question "Would you consider moving to another locality because of the quality of the environment where you live?" Respondents answering yes were given a score of one, those who said no or said they did not know were given a score of zero for the endogenous variable "migration potential".

We expect that residents of Copsa Mica will be more likely than residents of Bucuresti to see their local environment as being inadequate and, as a result, we expect them to be more willing to migrate to another community because of the perceived quality of the environment. Studies conducted by Samdahl and Robertson (1989) and by Arcury and Christianson (1990) have shown that the objective environmental conditions are a good predictor of how persons will respond to questions dealing with the quality of the environment and that individuals facing higher levels of environmental degradation have more concern over the environment (Lowe and Pinhey, 1982). Persons in areas with more severe problems, in general, tend to define their environment in more negative terms than do those who live in areas with higher quality environments. Evidence on the impact of demographic variables on environmental attitudes has been mixed, but, in general, younger, more educated, and urban dwellers tend to have higher levels of environmental concern than do others (Samdahl and Robertson, 1989; Arcury and Christianson, 1990). Therefore, we expect age and education to affect migration potential. Environmental concern appears to extend to various social classes (Mohai, 1985), but the type of work that an individual does may have an impact on environmental concerns. Workers that directly utilize natural resources tend to exhibit less environmental concern than do workers in other sectors of the economy (Rhyne, 1987). While both males and females have been found to express interests in environmental issues, women have been found to be more concerned than men with local environmental issues (Blocker and Eckberg, 1989). Some gender differences on this subject seem to be related to one's hierarchy of overall concerns about public issues. Industrial development may be supported by men because of a greater interest in the overall economic impact of such development, while women are more likely to focus on the possible environmental impacts of development (Stout-Wiegand and Trent, 1983). Further evidence suggests that socialization of men in relation to instrumental role activity explains differences in attitudes about the economy, the environment, and their relationship based on gender (George and Southwell, 1986), as men are expected to stress competition, while women are expected to be socialized into protective

attitudes, roles, and orientations (Milbrath, 1984). Therefore, we expect men to be more willing to migrate than women.

In addition to residential location, we have included in our analyses the following variables, as predictors of migration potential: "logarithm of the age" of the respondent; "worker", which is coded one for people in traditional proletarian occupations and zero for others; "income", where the low income category includes households making less than 50,000 lei per month (approximately $35.00), middle income contains households making between 50,000 and 200,000 lei, and high income includes households making over 200,000 lei per month; "private employer", scored one if the person is self- employed or is an entrepreneur with employees; "gender", coded one for men and zero for women; "unemployed, scored one if the respondent involuntarily is out of work and zero if otherwise; and an indicator for state sector employees that is coded one if the respondent is working in the state sector and zero if otherwise; "homeownership": respondents owning their place of residence were scored one and all others were given a score of zero; "relations with neighbors" : we asked respondents to indicate how often they spent time with their neighbors. The response categories were: "never", "a few times a year", "once a month, "twice a month", "once a week", "two or three times a week", and "every day". Higher scores indicate a more intensive level of informal neighboring relations; "association involvement": we asked respondents how involved they were in the activities of any club, association, or organization active in their neighborhood. Respondents were given the following categories: not a member/not involved at all; somewhat uninvolved; somewhat involved; deeply involved. Higher scores indicate more extensive involvement; "dissatisfaction with the local environment": respondents were asked: " what is your opinion about the quality of the environment in your locality?" They were given five response options: totally inadequate, inadequate, average, adequate, totally adequate. For the purpose of the present study, we coded "totally inadequate" and "inadequate" into one category and the remaining categories were grouped together to form a dichotomous variable; "adequacy of the local government environmental policy": we asked the respondents: " Do you think the government has done enough to protect the quality of the environment in your locality?" If the answer was "yes", the variable was coded one, if "no" the response was scored zero; "crime growth": we asked " What do you think about the level of crime in your neighborhood?" The response categories were: going down; staying about the same; going up; don't know. Responses indicating that crime was going up were scored one, all other responses were scored zero; "victim": respondents were asked whether they or anyone with whom they were personally connected had been a victim of an assault. The same question was repeated for property crimes. We combined the two responses to form this variable. If the answer was "yes", the variable was coded one, if the answer was "no" or "don't know/no answer", the variable was coded zero. Among the exogenous variables there were included three scales: "fear of crime", "neighborhood satisfaction", and "self esteem". Fear of Crime: we computed a summative scale made up of the following four items that have been used in U.S. studies and that have been shown to have acceptable reliabilities (Baba and Austin, 1989; Keil and Vito, 1991):

1. In our neighborhood people do not need to lock their doors when they leave their homes for a short period of time.

2. People in this neighborhood should think about someone breaking into their homes to steal things.

3. People in this neighborhood can walk around at night without fear of being attacked or bothered by strangers.

4. People in this area can have their personal property outside unattended without fearing that it might be stolen or damaged.

Respondents were given four categories for each of the above questions: strongly disagree; disagree; agree; and, strongly agree.

Higher scores indicate higher levels of concern about safety in a neighborhood. The alpha coefficient is .72, indicating an acceptable reliability level. Neighborhood Satisfaction: respondents were asked how satisfied they were with the following characteristics of their neighborhoods:

1. The amount of pride people who live in this neighborhood take in the neighborhood appearance.

2. The amount of open space between the housing units. 3. The amount of peace and quiet in the neighborhood. 4. The way people in this neighborhood watch out for homes an personal property

of others. 5. The extent to which other people who live in this neighborhood can be trusted.

The response categories were: very satisfied; satisfied; dissatisfied; very dissatisfied. Higher scores indicate higher levels of neighborhood satisfaction. The reliability coefficient for this scale is .83. Self-Esteem: we asked ten questions measuring respondents' self-esteem. These items were developed by Rosenberg (1965) and have been used in a number of studies-They are as follows:

On an equal basis with others, I feel I am a person of worth. I feel that I have a number of good qualities. I am inclined to feel that I am a failure. I am able to do things as well as most other people. I feel I do not have much to be proud of. I take a positive attitude toward myself. On the whole I am satisfied with myself. I wish I could have more respect for myself. I certainly feel useless at times. At times I think I am not good at all.

The response categories are: strongly agree; agree; disagree; strongly disagree. Higher scores reflect higher self-esteem. In our analysis we used only nine of the above items. The reliability for the summated scale is .83.

Based on existing research in the United States and elsewhere, we expect that these variables will have significant effects on expressed willingness to migrate due to the conditions of the local environment. We expect that fear of crime, which Moeller (1989) has seen to be a form of victimization itself, will be positively related to a willingness to migrate. Our expectation is that crime or, at least perceived crime, will be an important component in respondents' assessments about the quality of their local environment. As with "Fear of Crime", we anticipate that variable "Victim" will have a positive effect on willingness to migrate, too. As with "Victim" and "Fear of Crime" it is expected that persons who see crime on the increase will be more wiling to migrate due to their perceptions of poor local environment conditions. We presume that persons with higher levels of self-esteem will be more willing to migrate than will persons with lower levels of self-esteem. We also suppose that "Neighborhood Satisfaction" will be negatively related to willingness to migrate due to environmental conditions. We hypothesize that respondents who have more intensive neighboring relations will be less likely to consider moving due to local environmental conditions than would residents who have lower levels of involvement in informal neighboring relations. The idea of persons forming themselves into a community within a given spatial area includes not only the notion that they have a financial stake in a neighborhood through home ownership and/or that they are involved in informal social relations with neighbors. It also includes the idea that people are active in more formal, voluntary, secondary organizations within their communities (Janowitz, 1967). It is expected that a higher associational involvement will lessen the willingness to migrate.

Past research has also shown that homeowners are more likely to form what Janowitz (1967) has called a "community of limited liability" in any given locality. They have a financial and social stake in the maintenance of the integrity of the neighborhood in ways that renters do not. Therefore, we hypothesize that owners will be less willing to sever their ties with their local area than will be nonowners. In addition, if respondents are satisfied with government policy toward the local environment, we expect that they will be less williig to migrate due to local environmental conditions than are those who are not as satisfied. Based on existing research in the United States and elsewhere, we expect that these variables will have direct effects on expressed willingness to migrate due to the conditions of the local environment.

Data were collected in May 1994 by the Center for Urban and Regional Sociology, Bucuresti, Romania. The Center selected households in each city so as to obtain a probability sample representative of the population of each locality. A comparison of the structures of the sample with known parameters for each of the communities taken from the 1982 Romanian census, indicates that the samples do not differ from the respective populations of Copsa Mica and Bucuresti. The standard errors of estimate for each sample is plus or minus three per cent. In the present study, the overall sample consists of 593 cases, 301 from Copsa Mica and 292 from Bucuresti. We used mean

substitution to replace missing values, except for the variable "Income", where we used a median substitution.

To reiterate: our general expectation is that the population of Copsa Mica will have higher proportions of residents who are expressing a willingness to migrate because of the condition of the environment, even after controlling for demographic and other differences between the two communities.

Results

Table 1 presents the frequency distributions for the variables used in the present analyses. Table 2 contains the results for our logistic regression model, where the dependent variable is migration potential due to quality of the local environment.

Migration Potential No (0) 468 (78.9%) Yes (1) 125 (21.1%) Total 593 (100%)

Location Bucuresti (0) 292 (49.2%) Copsa Mica (1) 301 (50.8%) Total 593 (100%)

Unemployed No (0) 530 (89.4%) Yes (1) 63 (10.6%) Total 593 (100%)

Private Sector Employer NO (0) 573 (96.6%) Yes (1) 20 ( 3.4%) Total 593 (100%)

Gender Female (0) 311 (52.4%) Male (1) 282 (47.6%) Total 593 (100%)

Crime Growth NO (0) 271 (45.7%) Yes (1) 322 (54.3%) Total 593 (100%)

Adequacy of Local Government Environmental Policy No (0) 537 (90.69) Yes (1) 56 ( 9.4%) Total 593 (100%)

Natural Log, Age nean 3.737 Standard Deviation .374

Neighborhood Satisfact ion Mean 11.681 Standard Deviation 3.499

Associational Involvement Mean 1.182 Standard Deviation .587

Dissatisfaction with Local Environment NO (0) 159 (26.8%) yes (1) 434 (73.2%) Total 593 (100%)

Income Low (-1) 44 ( 7.4%) Middle ( 0) 416 (70.2%) High ( 1) 133 (22.4%) Total 593 (1001)

State Sector Worker NO (0) 363 (61.2%) Yes (1) 230 (38.8%) Total 593 (100%)

Worker NO (0) 457 (77.1%) Yes (1) 136 (22.2%) Total 593 (100%)

Homeownership NO (0) 99 (16.7%) Yes (1) 494 (83.3%) Tot a 1 593 (100%)

Victim NO (0) 323 (54.5%) Yes (1) 270 (45.5%) Total 593 (100%)

Fear of Crime Mean 11.454 Standard Deviation 1.859

Self Esteem Mean 27.076 Standard Deviation 4.038

Relations with Neighbors Mean 5.867 Standard Deviation 1.688

Table I: Frequency Distributions for Categorical Variables and Descriptive Statistics for Interval Variables

Variables in the Equation

Variable B Standard Error Wald df p R Exp (B)

Location, .60 Copsa Mica

Natural Log, -1.08 Age Crime Growth .63 Neighborhood Satisfaction -.I1

Self Esteem .05 Associational Involvement .38

Homeownership -.70 Environmental Dissatisfaction -82

Constant 1.38

Summary Statistics Chi-square df P

Model Chi-square 65.03 8 .OOO Goodness of Fit 623.52 584 .I25

Table 2: Logistic Regression Equation for Migration Potential

Geographic location, as expected, had a significant effect on the dependent variable. Residents of Copsa Mica expressed a greater willingness to move from their area because of conditions in the local environment than did residents of Bucuresti. This reflects the greater environmental deterioration in Copsa Mica as compared to Bucuresti.

Past research on migration, in general, has shown that age is negatively related to propensity to migrate. Our results show that this also holds for willingness to migrate because of environmental deterioration. The natural logarithm of age is inversely related to willingness to migrate, indicating that as age increases the propensity to relocate because of poor environmental conditions decreases.

Of the three measures dealing with crime - whether the respondent or someone who he/she personally knows has been a victim of a crime; perceptions about the growth of crime; and fear of crime - "perceptions of crime growth is the only variable with a statistically significant effect, and as expected, a positive one.

With respect to the three measures of involvement in a "community of limited liability" -homeownership, relations with neighbors, and association involvement - "homeownership" was the only indicator behaving as we had anticipated. It had a significant negative effect on willingness to migrate. "Relations with neighbors" did not have a significant effect, and "associational involvement", contrary to our hypothesis, was positively related to a willingness to migrate.

"Satisfaction with the local neighborhood" behaved as we expected, having a significant, negative effect on willingness to migrate due to local environmental

conditions. The more satisfied persons are with their local neighborhood, the less willing they are to migrate.

Persons who had highest levels of dissatisfaction with the local environment were the most willing to migrate. This result was consistent with our hypothesis.

"Self-esteem", as it has been anticipated, had a significant, positive effect on the dependent variable. Although the relation is small, those who claim they will be willing to migrate have higher self-esteem 'scores than do others.

Several of the variables that we thought would affect potential migration due to environmental conditions, in addition to those already mentioned, did not behave as expected or they did not have statistically significant effects. Notable among these are the socio-economic status indicators. Income level did not affect willingness to migrate. Expressions of a desire to migrate were equally distributed across income categories. Being a worker, being employed in the state sector, or being a private entrepreneur had no effect on migration potential. The failure of any of the socio- economic status indicators to differentiate between who would and who would not migrate is not consistent with previous findings from Romania on migration potential of workers with the goal of becoming a "guest" worker (Keil and Andreescu, 1994). In that study, skilled workers were more apt to express an intention to migrate temporarily than were others. Also, the indicator for satisfaction with government policy toward local environment did not have a significant direct effect.

Dbcussion and Conclusions

Our results show that willingness to migrate from one's locality due to local environmental conditions in Copsa Mica and Bucuresti is the result of a complex mix of factors. The data clearly indicate that subjective evaluation of the environment is among the more important predictors of willingness to move because of local environmental conditions. The more dissatisfied one is the greater the willingness to move. We also show that willingness to move from one's locality is related to objective environmental conditions, in that residents from Copsa Mica are more willing to migrate, other things being equal, than are residents of Bucuresti.

Perceptions about crime also enter into the equation. The fear of crime measure and the victim variable did not have significant effects. The important predictor was perception about changes in the level of crime. Persons who see crime as increasing in their neighborhood are more likely than others to express a willingness to move. In all likelihood, a more complex model would show that fear of crime and victimization had indirect effects that were mediated by perception that crime was increasing.

The equation also shows that one cannot understand the willingness to migrate unless one understands the levels and type of involvement in the local "community of limited liability". Persons with a financial stake in their neighborhood through home ownership are less willing to move than are persons lacking such a commitment. However, involvement in specific forms of social relations do not have the effects we hypothesized that they would. Informal social relations with neighbors does not have a statistically

si@icant effect. It neither acts to stimulate or to dampen an interest in migrating. On the other hand, involvement in formal neighborhood associations appears to stimulate an interest in migrating. We know of no a-priori reason to expect such a relation. More research obviously is needed to clarify this apparently anomalous association.

The more positive one's feeling about the quality of one's neighborhood, as indicated by our neighborhood satisfaction scale, the less likely that one will express an interest in moving, other factors being equal. Positive sentiments about one's locality serves to depress an interest in migrating in that it strengthens one's attachment to the place of residence.

Recent findings from a national study of temporary migration potential in Romania (Keil and Andreescu, 1994) are consistent with the findings reported here for age. The older the respondents the smaller is the likelihood that they will want to migrate. As in other studies of migration and migration potential, age has a negative effect on our dependent variable. Younger people, then, are significantly more likely to want to move because of local environmental conditions, even though they are less likely than older people to have a critical appraisal of the local environment.

While research has shown that men usually are more interested in migrating than are women, we did not find that this was the case for this particular case of migration. The gender variable did not have a statistically significant effect. Self-esteem had a significant effect. It is an important psychological resource enabling the migration decision.

In sum: while the objective condition of the physical environment is important as a factor shaping the willingness of people to migrate, as evidenced by the effect of Copsa Mica, it alone does not provide an exhaustive explanation for the formation of such an intention. Also important is how one evaluates the physical environment. Persons considering the environment as unsatisfactory are likely to say they will move independent of the objective conditions that may or may not be present. Similarly, the level of satisfaction with the neighborhood also is important in shaping a willingness to migrate because of local environment conditions.

Structural political, economic, ideological, and social transformations have begun to be put into effect in Romania in the last five years. For the first time since the interwar period, there is a possibility for major changes in the ways in which the environment is perceived and related to by the general citizenry, the state, and economic enterprises. Among the most important changes are the creation of a multi-party political system with open, democratic, competitive elections; the development of a political-legal framework for a market economy that eventually will result in rational pricing mechanisms that will help encourage more efficient use of natural resources; and the opening of the society so as to allow social space for the emergence of free, autonomous social movements. In the long run, all of these are capable of producing an increase in environmental consciousness and changes in state and enterprise policies toward the environment.

However, even though there now are two ecological parties in Romania, they have not been able to generate major support in the electorate. One of the most significant post-revolutionary change in laws pertaining to the environment came in a 1990 decree

by the new government (Monitorul Oficial: September, 1990). Among other things, this decree created the Minister of the Environment as a specialized agency charged with improving the quality of life in Romania; developing a rational and efficient program for water management; developing a program in forest management; and maintaining, through environmental protection, an ecological equilibrium; and controlling nuclear power industries.

In May, 1991, the above decree was replaced with a new governmental decree: 264/91 (Monitorul Oficial, May, 1991). The functions of the Ministry of Environment, now called the Ministry of Waters, Forests, and Protection of the Environment, were as follows: conduct research and develop plans to protect ecological systems; propose the development of administrative regulations and laws dealing with the environment and its rational use; co-ordinate the ecological reconstruction of deteriorated areas, develop programs for protecting threatened areas, and develop maps of these areas; establish official information for guaranteeing ecological equilibrium, disseminate such information to economic agents, and monitoring and verifying their compliance with legal requirements; insure Romania's integration with international programs run by governmental and non-governmental organizations and represent the Romanian government in these circles, including suggesting the development of programs needed by Romania; participate in establishing environmental programs in Romania that are required by international convention, and accords with respect to the environment; co- ordinates activities in national parks and other protected areas in order to preserve and extend biological diversity and heterogeneity; co-ordinate ecological research programs; develop respect for environmental laws and regulations; co-ordinate relations between the government and other groups so as to protect the environment; collaborate with other national and local institutions to develop environmental education and training programs; organize information and documentation on the environment and develop public information programs on the environment and on the utilization of natural resources; and develop model legislation dealing with the environment (Lupan, 1993).

Even though the current law governing environmental activity was passed in 1973, there have been a number of new laws promulgated to extend protection to waterways, wetlands, forests, and the like and to develop programs to contribute to a cleanup of the atmosphere. These laws included financial penalties for violating environmental regulations. In 1991 (1991/8), the Romanian parliament ratified the 1979 Geneva Convention on air pollution. Law (1990/17) was passed regulating the use of internal maritime waterways in order to control the pollution of the maritime environment in the Black Sea and along the Danube, as well as other internal waterways (Monitorul Oficial: August, 1990).

While these laws represent significant juridical responses to the environmental problems in Romania, the state has had difficulty putting them into practice, given the other economic problems the nation faces. Until there is a resolution of the difficulties associated with converting the Romanian economy from a centrally planned, command system to one oriented toward and guided by market structures, Romania is likely to have continuing difficulties putting into place a system of sustainable economic

development that is oriented toward, and organized around, protecting the environment in combination with balanced economic growth.

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