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Extreme Solar Particle StormsThe hostile Sun

AAS Editor in ChiefEthan Vishniac, John Hopkins University, Maryland, US

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Extreme Solar Particle StormsThe hostile Sun

Fusa MiyakeNagoya University, Japan

Ilya Usoskin and Stepan PoluianovUniversity of Oulu, Finland

IOP Publishing, Bristol, UK

ª IOP Publishing Ltd 2020

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval systemor transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recordingor otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, or as expressly permitted by law orunder terms agreed with the appropriate rights organization. Multiple copying is permitted inaccordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, the CopyrightClearance Centre and other reproduction rights organizations.

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Permission to make use of IOP Publishing content other than as set out above may be soughtat [email protected].

Fusa Miyake, Ilya Usoskin and Stepan Poluianov have asserted their right to be identified as theauthors of this work in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and PatentsAct 1988.

ISBN 978-0-7503-2232-4 (ebook)ISBN 978-0-7503-2230-0 (print)ISBN 978-0-7503-2233-1 (myPrint)ISBN 978-0-7503-2231-7 (mobi)

DOI 10.1088/2514-3433/ab404a

Version: 20191201

AAS–IOP AstronomyISSN 2514-3433 (online)ISSN 2515-141X (print)

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data: A catalogue record for this book is availablefrom the British Library.

Published by IOP Publishing, wholly owned by The Institute of Physics, London

IOP Publishing, Temple Circus, Temple Way, Bristol, BS1 6HG, UK

US Office: IOP Publishing, Inc., 190 North Independence Mall West, Suite 601, Philadelphia,PA 19106, USA

Contents

Preface x

Acknowledgments xi

Editor biographies xii

Contributors xiv

1 Introduction 1-1

References 1-3

2 What Can Be Learned from Modern Data? 2-1

2.1 Strength of Solar Flares 2-2

2.1.1 Introduction 2-2

2.1.2 Physical Model of Solar Flares 2-3

2.1.3 Magnetic Flux and Free Energy of Solar Active Regions 2-4

2.1.4 Relationship between Magnetic Energy and Flare Activity 2-8

2.1.5 Summary 2-10

2.2 Solar Particle Events 2-10

2.2.1 Galactic Cosmic Rays 2-10

2.2.2 Magnetospheric Shielding and Rigidity Cutoff 2-12

2.2.3 Solar Energetic Particles 2-13

2.2.4 Spaceborne Measurements 2-17

2.2.5 Ground-based Detection 2-18

2.2.6 Energy Spectrum of SEP Events 2-20

2.2.7 Statistic of the Known Events 2-23

2.3 Major Geomagnetic Storms 2-24

2.3.1 Space Hazards 2-24

2.3.2 Solar Sources 2-25

2.3.3 Favorable and Unfavorable Factors 2-31

2.3.4 Predictability 2-33

2.3.5 Climatology 2-33

References 2-34

3 State-of-the-art Theory and Modeling 3-1

3.1 Solar and Stellar Dynamos 3-2

3.1.1 Superflares and Dynamos 3-2

3.1.2 A Regime for Superflaring Stars 3-6

v

3.1.3 Superflares and Resonant Effects 3-11

3.1.4 More Options 3-13

3.2 Particle Acceleration at the Sun 3-14

3.2.1 A Brief History of Research on Solar Energetic Particles 3-14

3.2.2 The Case for Shock Acceleration of Protonsin Large SEP Events

3-17

3.2.3 The Case for Flare-resident Acceleration of Protonsin Large SEP Events

3-23

3.2.4 The Value of a Well-established Paradigm 3-27

References 3-27

4 Cosmogenic Isotopes as Proxies for Solar Energetic Particles 4-1

4.1 What Can We Learn about SPEs in the Past? 4-2


4.1.2 Earlier Views on Radionuclides and SEP Events 4-3

4.1.3 Redefining How Extreme SEP Events Can Be 4-6

4.1.4 Implications 4-7

4.2 Production of Cosmogenic Isotopes in the Atmosphere 4-7

4.2.1 Isotope Production Reactions 4-8

4.2.2 Production Function 4-11

4.2.3 Production of Cosmogenic Isotopes by γ-radiation 4-16

4.3 Isotope Transport 4-17

4.3.1 Atmospheric Air Advection Pathways 4-17

4.3.2 Atmospheric Diffusion/Mixing 4-19

4.3.3 Transport from the Stratosphere to the Lower Troposphere 4-20

4.3.4 Carbon Cycle 4-21

4.3.5 Gravitational Sedimentation 4-23

4.3.6 Dry and Wet Deposition 4-25

4.3.7 Isotope Distribution in the Atmosphere 4-27

4.3.8 Solar Influence on the Isotope Distribution 4-29

4.3.9 Isotope Response to Climate Change and Volcanic Eruptions 4-32

4.4 Isotope Archiving in Ice Cores 4-36

4.4.1 Archiving of 10Be 4-36

4.4.2 Archiving of 36Cl 4-38

4.5 Lunar Archives 4-41

4.5.1 Cosmogenic Radionuclides on the Moon 4-41

4.5.2 Near-surface Components of Cosmogenic and RadiogenicNuclides

4-42

Extreme Solar Particle Storms

vi

4.5.3 Lunar Archives Relevant for Solar and Galactic Cosmic-rayRecords

4-43

4.5.4 Past Lunar Investigations into SEP and GCR Production 4-44

4.5.5 SEP Spectra from Lunar Samples 4-50

4.5.6 Other Data Sets 4-53

References 4-53

5 Measurements of Radionuclides 5-1

5.1 Measurement Techniques 5-1

5.1.1 Measurement of Long-lived Radionuclides 5-1

5.1.2 Decay Counting 5-2

5.1.3 Accelerator Mass Spectrometry 5-2

5.1.4 Latest Developments in AMS 5-3

5.2 Tree Rings 5-3

5.2.1 Archives for Reconstruction of Past Atmospheric 14CConcentrations

5-3

5.2.2 How Tree Rings Record Past Atmospheric 14C Concentrations 5-4

5.2.3 IntCal13 as Record for Past Atmospheric 14C Concentrations 5-4

5.2.4 Benefits of Annually Resolved 14C Records 5-5

5.2.5 Detection of SEP 5-5

5.3 Analysis of Cosmogenic Isotopes Recorded in Ice Cores 5-6

5.3.1 General Information for 10Be and 36Cl Extractionfrom Ice Cores

5-7

5.3.2 Sample Preparation for the Analysis of 10Be and 36Cl 5-9

References 5-13

6 Characterization of the Measured Events 6-1

6.1 Observed SEP events: Knowns and Unknowns 6-2


6.1.2 Proxy Data for Extreme SEP Events 6-2

6.1.3 Data on Events Detected Using Cosmogenic Isotopes 6-6

6.1.4 Summary and Future Applications 6-11

6.2 Reconstruction of Energy Spectra 6-11

6.2.1 The 36Cl/10Be Ratio 6-12

6.2.2 Application to Historical Events 6-14

6.3 Known Visual Auroral Observations 6-15



vii

6.3.2 Low-latitude Auroral Displays during theCarrington Event in 1859

6-17

6.3.3 Equatorward Boundary of Auroral Ovals and Storm Intensity 6-19

6.3.4 Reconstruction of the Equatorward Boundaryof Auroral Ovals

6-20

6.3.5 Equatorward Boundaries of Auroral Ovals forthe Carrington Event

6-21

6.3.6 Auroral Visibilities during Extreme Space Weather Events 6-22

6.3.7 Equatorward Boundaries of Outstanding Auroras 6-23

6.3.8 Is the Carrington Event Really Exceptional? 6-27

6.3.9 Conclusion 6-28

6.4 Event Statistics and the Worst-case Scenario 6-29


6.4.2 The Hierarchy of Extreme Solar Flares 6-30

References 6-33

7 Further Search for Extreme Events 7-1

7.1 Terrestrial Cosmogenic Isotopes 7-2

7.1.1 Possible Rapid Changes in CosmogenicNuclide Data Other than by SEPs

7-2

7.1.2 Other Rapid Excursions in 14C 7-8

7.1.3 Further Search for Extreme Events 7-10

7.2 Historical Archival Records 7-12


7.2.2 Surveys and Approaches 7-13

7.2.3 Chronological Coverage 7-16

7.2.4 Historical Reconstructions of Space Weatherand Space Climate

7-19

7.2.5 Historical Records of Auroral Candidates around774/775 and 993/994

7-21

7.2.6 Conclusion 7-26

7.3 Sun-like Stars 7-27

7.3.1 Superflares on Solar-type Stars 7-27

7.3.2 Statistical Properties of Superflares on Solar-type Stars 7-28

7.3.3 Starspots on Solar-type Stars and Their Correlationwith Flare Activity

7-31

7.3.4 Can Superflares Occur on Our Sun? 7-35

References 7-36


viii

8 Possible Impacts 8-1

8.1 Environmental Effects 8-2


8.1.2 NOx and HOx Production 8-2

8.1.3 Ozone Destruction 8-5

8.1.4 Dynamical and Climate Effects 8-6

8.1.5 Modeling Studies 8-10

8.1.6 Summary 8-13

8.2 Technological and Societal Effects 8-13


8.2.2 Radiation Effects 8-14

8.2.3 Ionospheric Effects 8-26

8.2.4 Ground-induced Currents 8-27

8.2.5 Extreme Event Scenarios and Simultaneity of Effects 8-27

8.2.6 Societal Effects 8-28

8.2.7 Future Requirements 8-29

References 8-30

9 Concluding Remarks 9-1

Appendix A A-1


ix

Preface

The idea for this book was set at the ISEE International Workshop “Extreme solarevents: How hostile can the Sun be?” held at ISEE (Institute of Space–EarthEnvironmental Research) in Nagoya University, during 2018 October 02–06. Aninternational team of 16 experts from eight different countries gathered in a quietroom to discuss knowns and unknowns in our knowledge of extreme solar events,define the most important problems, and coordinate efforts in this field. Theseexperts form the core of the author team for this book. During the workshop, werealized that the topic is very acute and important, with different aspects, frompurely academic to technological and societal ones. Conversely, the availableinformation and knowledge were not systematized and spread among variouspublications and minds. Therefore, we proposed writing a jointly edited book wherethe present state of the art is reviewed and prospects are given. This is the book thatis now on your desk.

x

Acknowledgments

We would like to acknowledge ISEE of Nagoya University for support provided tothe stimulating international workshop, where the idea for this book was born anddeveloped. The authors thank Charles H. Jackman (NASA/GSFC), David W. J.Thompson (Dept. of Atmospheric Science, CSU), Brian Thomas (WashburnUniversity), Steven Hardiman, Adam Scaife, and Neal Butchart (Met OfficeHadley Centre) for providing help with the visual material. The work of E.C. inChapters 3 and 6 has benefited from his participation on the ISSI InternationalTeam led by Athanasios Papaioannou, which is investigating high-energy solarparticle events. D.S. is grateful to David Moss (Manchester University) for a criticalreading of his section and acknowledges financial support of RFBR under grant18-02-00085 and BASIS Foundation under grant 18-1-1-77-1. The work of E.R. andT.S. in Chapter 4 was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation undergrant 200020_182239 (POLE). The work of E.R. and T.S. in Chapter 8 wassupported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant 17-17-01060). S.P. and I.U.are thankful to the Academy of Finland for support in the framework of theReSoLVE Centre of Excellence (Project 307411) and ESPERA Project (321882).K.K. thanks Grants-in-Aid from the MEXT/JSPS, JP15H05814. H.H. thanksGrants-in-Aid from the JSPS, JP17J06954, JP15H05816, JP15H05812 andJP1801254, as well as the ISEE of the Nagoya University for their financialsupports. H.H. also thanks Yoshihiro Izumi, Delio V. Proverbio, Corpus ChristiCollege (the University of Oxford), the National Diet Library, Rainer Arlt, and LesCowley for providing the historical materials and permissions for their use: theauroral drawings in 1872, 771/772, and 773, the sunspot drawing in 1128, the auroraldrawing in 1770, Staudacherʼs sunspot drawing in 1770, as well as the HaloSimprogram. H.H. wishes to acknowledge the essential achievements of Sam M.Silverman in the studies of historical auroral records and to thank him for valuablediscussions during H.H.’s visit to Massachusetts, USA, and to thank F. RichardStephenson for valuable scientific discussions and advice, especially during H.H.’svisit to Newcastle and Durham.

xi

Editor biographies

Fusa Miyake

Fusa Miyake was born in Japan and educated at the Division ofParticle and Astrophysical Science, Nagoya University. Sheobtained her PhD at Nagoya University in 2013 and has workedsince then for the Institute for Advanced Research andSolar–Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (now the Institute forSpace–Earth Environmental Research, ISEE), Nagoya University.Her research explores occurrence features of extreme solar proton

events over the past several tens of thousands of years, focusing particularly onmeasuring cosmogenic isotopes. She, together with a team of researchers, discoveredthe extreme solar events of 775 CE and 993 CE in cosmogenic isotope (initially in14C) data, which forms the field of this book.

Ilya G. Usoskin

Ilya Usoskin was born and educated in the previous century andmillennium, in a city and country whose names no longer exist:Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) of USSR (now RussianFederation). He graduated (with honors) from LeningradPolytechnic (now St. Petersburg State Technical University) with aMSc in space physics and then enrolled, as a junior researcher and aPhD student, in the A. F. Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute, where

he studied energetic particles of extraterrestrial origin, cosmic rays. He obtained hisCand. Sci. degree in astrophysics in 1995 and then worked as an internationalpostdoctoral fellow at INFN Milano, in Italy, where he was involved in the highlysophisticated spaceborne astroparticle experiment AMS (Alpha MagneticSpectrometer). Since 2000, Ilya Usoskin has worked as the head of the Oulu CosmicRay Station at the University of Oulu in Finland. The station includes one referenceneutron monitor in Oulu, two neutron monitors in Antarctica, and a muon telescopein Central Finland. Since 2012, he has been a full professor of space physics at theUniversity of Oulu, and for 2014–2019, he served as the vice-director of theReSoLVE (Research on SOlar Long-term Variability and Effects) Center ofExcellence of the Academy of Finland. The most honorable awards he has receivedinclude knighthood (first class knight) of the Order of the Lion of Finland (2013), theJulis Bartels medal (2018) of the European Geosciences Union, and membership inthe Finnish Academy of Sciences and Letters.

Prof. Usoskin is an expert in solar activity as well as in the variability of cosmicrays and their atmospheric effects. He is one of the founders of the space climateresearch discipline. He has authored or co-authored more than 200 peer-reviewedresearch publication in the fields of solar and heliospheric physics, solar–terrestrialrelations, and geophysics. He is also actively involved in numerous expertʼs dutiesfor the research community.

xii

Stepan V. Poluianov

Stepan Poluianov was born in Murmansk, USSR. He received hisSpecialist degree (the equivalent of a MSc) with honors in opticsfrom the ITMO (Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics)University in St. Petersburg. After graduation, he moved backhome to Murmansk and worked at the Polar Geophysical Institute,where he did experimental research in the propagation of artificialultralow-frequency radio waves. In 2012, Stepan Poluianov became

a doctoral student at the University of Oulu, Finland. He received his PhD degree inspace physics in 2016, studying cosmic rays and their interaction with matter.Afterwards, he continued working at the university in the same field. He is involvedin measurements of cosmic rays by neutron monitors in Finland and Antarctica. In2019, he became a member of the AMS Collaboration, which runs the cosmic-rayexperiment AMS-02 at the International Space Station. With colleagues, he hasdeveloped a universal and detailed model of cosmogenic nuclide production in theatmosphere, and a novel method for the estimation of solar energetic particle spectrafrom lunar rocks, and has participated in the formulation of updated GLE andsub-GLE definitions.


xiii

Contributors

Melanie BaroniCEREGE, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, INRA, Collège de France,Technopôle de l’Arbois, Aix-en-Provence, France

Edward W. CliverNational Solar Observatory, 3665 Discovery Drive, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Clive DyerCSDRadConsultancy, Fleet, Hampshire, UKVisiting Professor, University of Surrey Space Centre, Guildford, UK

Yusuke EbiharaResearch Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere, Kyoto University, Uji, JapanUnit of Synergetic Studies for Space, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

Aryeh FeinbergInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Zurich,SwitzerlandEawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf,Switzerland

Hisashi HayakawaGraduate School of Letters, Osaka University, Toyonaka, JapanScience and Technology Facilities Council, RAL Space, Rutherford AppletonLaboratory, Didcot, UK

A. J. Timothy JullDepartment of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA

Gennady A. KovaltsovIoffe Physical-Technical Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia

Kanya KusanoInstitute for Space–Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University,Nagoya, Japan

Hiroyuki MaeharaSubaru Telescope Okayama Branch Office, National Astronomical Observatoryof Japan, Okayama, Japan

Florian MekhaldiDepartment of Geology-Quaternary Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

xiv

Yasuyuki MitsumaFaculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba,Tsukuba, Japan

Fusa MiyakeInstitute for Space–Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University,Nagoya, Japan

Raimund MuschelerDepartment of Geology-Quaternary Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

Markku OinonenLaboratory of Chronology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University ofHelsinki, Helsinki, Finland

Dmitry SokoloffDepartment of Physics, Moscow State UniversityIZMIRAN, Moscow, Russia

Stepan PoluianovSpace Climate Research Unit and Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory,University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland

Eugene RozanovPhysikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium, World Radiation Center, Davos,SwitzerlandWest Department of Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere andRadio Wave Propagation Russian Academy of Sciences, Kaliningrad, RussiaInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Timofei SukhodolovPhysikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium, World Radiation Center, Davos,SwitzerlandWest Department of Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere andRadio Wave Propagation Russian Academy of Sciences, Kaliningrad, RussiaInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Ilya UsoskinSpace Climate Research Unit and Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory,University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland

Lukas WackerLaboratory of Ion Beam Physics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland


xv

F. WangSchool of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

David M. WillisScience and Technology Facilities Council, RAL Space, Rutherford AppletonLaboratory, Didcot, UKCentre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University ofWarwick, Coventry, UK


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