third quarter 2017 earnings conference call/media/files/t/tenneco-ir/...please see the tables that...
TRANSCRIPT
NYSE: TENOctober 27, 2017
Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call
Agenda
Third Quarter Highlights Brian KesselerChief Executive Officer
Segment Results and Financial Overview
Ken TrammellChief Financial Officer
Outlook and Strategic Priorities Brian KesselerChief Executive Officer
Questions and Answers
Safe Harbor Statement / Non-GAAP Results: Please see the safe harbor statement and the tables that reconcile GAAP results with non-GAAP results at the end of this presentation and in Tenneco’s financial results press release, which is incorporated herein by reference.
Prior period revision: Financial results for 2016 and first quarter 2017 have been revised for certain immaterial adjustments as discussed in Tenneco’s Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2016 and Form 10-Q/A for the quarter ended March 31, 2017. 2
Third Quarter Highlights
3
We delivered strong organic growth:• Record third quarter revenue, significantly outpacing the
industry in light vehicle, commercial truck and off-highway end-market applications in all regions by:
– Leveraging Tenneco’s technology and capability leadership– Capturing opportunities in high growth markets– Capitalizing on positive market trends in both product lines
• Record Q3 adjusted earnings – Net income and earnings per share
• Returned $85M to shareholders – Repurchased 1.3 million shares for $71M – Paid $14M in dividends
Built to Outperform – diversified business profile
Tenneco Revenue
4
Q3 VALUE-ADD REVENUE $1.8B
Outpacing industry production by 4 percentage points
Light Vehicle + 5%*
• Outpacing global LV production of +2%
• NA LV revenue strongly levered to light truck segment**
CommercialTruck + 31%*
• Outpacing global production of +4%• CT volumes up in all regions• India ramp-up of Bharat Stage IV
commercial truck regulations
Off-Highway & Specialty + 29%*
• Volumes up double digits in North America, Europe and Japan
• Off-highway recovering from weak industry conditions
Aftermarket - 1%*• In line with global market• Strength in South America; growing
the customer base
VA REVENUE – by product line
Ride Performance + 8%*
Clean Air + 5%*
* In constant currency **Light truck segment includes pickups, SUVs, CUVs and work vans (IHS definition)
CA LV47%
Aftermarket18%
OH 6%
CT 6%
VAREVENUE
Q3+ 6%*
Record VA REVENUE – by product application
RP LV23%
• Incremental revenue growth, particularly in commercial truck and off-highway
• Continued cost savings and productivity improvement activities
• Timing of steel economics recoveries and other offsets continuing from Q2
• Clean Air Europe impacted by significant increase in CTOH and light vehicle program launch activity and associated costs
Tenneco Earnings
Q3 ADJUSTED EBIT $154M, DOWN 2%
5
ADJUSTED EPS $1.67, UP 11%• Favorable Q3 tax rate of 23% vs. 28% last year
• 3.7 million shares repurchased over last 12 months
Record
VA Adj.EBIT %
Q38.8%
Adjusted EPS up 11% on revenue growth, favorable tax rate and share repurchases
Ride Performance by Segment
6
North America - 1%* VA Revenue $304M
LV - 2%*• Outpacing NA industry production
down 10%• New programs with Ford, Jeep, VW
CTOH + 13%*• Outpacing NA CT prod. +2%• Higher volumes with Daimler,
Hendrickson and Paccar
AM - 4%* • In line with softer market• Impacted by hurricanes
Light Vehicle
57% Aftermarket35%
OH 1%CT 7%
Europe and South America + 17%* VA Revenue $279M
LV + 22%*
• Outpacing production of Europe +5%, South America +26%
• New platforms and higher volumes on Monroe Intelligent Suspension
CTOH + 31%*• Europe CT growth with Volvo Truck,
Daimler, Paccar and Scania • South America CT recovery
AM + 7%*• Europe -7%, softer market• South America up 29%, growing
customer base* In constant currency
Asia Pacific + 17%* VA Revenue $119M
LV + 19%*
• Outpacing production of China +1%, India +3%
• New launches and higher volumes including with SVW, Fiat Chrysler and SGM
AM ~ flat*• Investing in the emerging
market and increasing product coverage
Q3 RP VA REVENUE $702M VAREVENUE
Q3+ 8%*
VA REVENUE – by product application
Clean Air by Segment
7
North America + 2%* VA Revenue $479M
LV ~ flat*• Outpacing NA production down 10%• Strong platform mix on light trucks,
including Ford Super Duty
CTOH + 34%*• Commercial truck revenues up double
digits vs. production up 2%• New business award w/ Daimler Trucks• Off-highway recovering, up 32% with
CAT and Deere• Q3 improvement vs. ~flat YoY in Q2
Light Vehicle79%
AM7%
OH 10%
CT 4%
Europe and South America + 4%* VA Revenue $336M
LV + 3%*• Growth on existing platforms and
new Land Rover program ramping• Multiple programs launching
CTOH + 23%*• South America CT recovery• Launching CT business with MAN in
Europe• Europe off-highway up 25%• Continuing OH recovery and
incremental business with Deutz* In constant currency
Asia Pacific + 11%* VA Revenue $235M
LV + 5%*• Outpacing China production +1% with
new launches and higher volumes with SVW, SGM and FAW-VW
CTOH + 62%*• China CT revenue up 45%• Ramp-up of Bharat Stage IV
regulations across India
• Off-highway volumes up in Japan with Kubota
Q3 CA VA REVENUE $1,050M VAREVENUE
Q3+ 5%*
VA REVENUE – by product application
$ Millions Ride Performance Clean Air
Q3 2017 Q3 2017North
AmericaEurope
& SAAsia
Pacific Total North America
Europe& SA
AsiaPacific Total
Value-add revenue $ 304 $ 279 $ 119 $ 702 $ 479 $ 336 $ 235 $ 1,050
Adjusted EBIT $ 34 $ 10 $ 19 $ 63 $ 47 $ 25 $ 38 $ 110
Adjusted EBIT as a % of value-add revenue 11.2% 3.6% 16.0% 9.0% 9.8% 7.4% 16.2% 10.5%
Q3 2016 Q3 2016North
AmericaEurope
& SAAsia
Pacific Total North America
Europe& SA
AsiaPacific Total
Value-add revenue $ 306 $ 229 $ 101 $ 636 $ 468 $ 297 $ 211 $ 976
Adjusted EBIT $ 42 $ 8 $ 17 $ 67 $ 42 $ 30 $ 40 $ 112
Adjusted EBIT as a % of value-add revenue 13.7% 3.5% 16.8% 10.5% 9.0% 10.1% 19.0% 11.5%
Results by Product Line and Segment
8
Takeaways:• NA CA Q3 margin performance up 80bps YoY, driven by higher off-highway revenues; LV revenue flat• RP NA, RP E&SA and CA AP results impacted by timing of steel economics recoveries and other offsets• CA EU impacted by significant increase in CTOH and LV program launch activity and associated costs
Please see the tables that reconcile GAAP results with non-GAAP results in Tenneco’s financial results press release. See slide 9 on prior period revisions.
Financial Overview – Q3
Q3‘17 Q3’16** Change
Total Revenue 2,274 2,096 8%
Value-add Revenue Δ 1,752 1,612 9%
Adjusted EBIT † 154 157 -2%
Adjusted EBIT † (% of VA Revenue) 8.8% 9.7% (90)bps
Adjusted EBITDA *† 211 210 -%
Adjusted Net Income † 88 85 4%
Adjusted EPS ($) † $1.67 $1.51 11%
Cash Flow From Operations 53 130 -59%
Net Debt / Adjusted LTM EBITDA*† 1.7x 1.3x (0.4)x
Δ Value-add Revenue is total revenue less substrate sales. * Including noncontrolling interests. † Adjusted for restructuring activities and net tax adjustments. Please see the tables that reconcile GAAP results with non-GAAP results in Tenneco’s financial results press release.** Financial results for 2016 and first quarter 2017 have been revised for certain immaterial adjustments as discussed in Tenneco’s Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2016 and Form 10-Q/A for the quarter ended March 31, 2017.
$ Millions, except as noted
9
Adjustments
• Restructuring and related expense of $20M pre-tax, or 32-cents per diluted share
– In Australia, closure of the Clean Air plant and downsizing of Ride Performance operations for $9M
– Cost improvement initiatives
• Net tax adjustments of $6M, or 10-cents per diluted share, for adjustments to prior year estimates
10
Tax Expense
Reported tax expense of $22M, includes tax benefit of:• $3M on restructuring• $6M for tax adjustments to prior year estimates
Before those Q3 items, adjusted tax expense is $31M• Effective tax rate of 23% in the quarter; year-to-date 26%
Q3 cash tax payments were $31M
Updated 2017 tax expectations• Expect full year effective tax rate between 26% and 27% (prior 27% - 28%)
without the Shanghai JV high tech designation ruling – With high-tech designation, expect a 100 bps improvement to the effective tax rate
• Expect cash taxes in the range of $95M to $105M (prior $110M to $120M)
11
Continued focus on global tax planning
Cash Flow
• Cash generated from operations of $53M; would have been $98M excluding settlement antitrust claims
– $45M paid related to antitrust as discussed last quarter
– Incremental $17M invested in trade working capital (receivables, inventory and payables)
• Capital expenditures of $92M in the quarter– For full year 2017, we expect capital expenditures of about $390M; high
end of previous guidance due to accelerated move of Beijing plant
• Opportunistically repurchased 1.3 million shares for $71M – Year-to-date bought back 2.3 million shares for $131M– Remaining authorization of $269M available through December 2019
• Paid $14M in dividends (Q3 $0.25/share)– Year-to-date paid $40M in dividends
12
Debt and Cash Position
• Interest expense of $19M in the quarter, compared to adjusted interest expense of $16M last year
• Expect 2017 annual interest expense of approximately $72M
$ Millions September 30,
2017 2016
Total Debt $ 1,681 $ 1,434
Cash Balances 279 326
Net Debt $ 1,402 $ 1,108
13
Q4 Revenue Outlook – Expect Q4 revenue to grow 7%, or 3% constant currency, outpacing light vehicle industry production growth of 1%*• Better than industry performance will be driven by strong double-digit growth in commercial truck
and off-highway revenues• Light vehicle revenue expected in line with industry production
• Expect steady YOY contribution from the global aftermarket
• Value-add revenue also expected to grow 7%, or 3% on a constant currency basis, resulting in Q4 VA revenue about inline with Q3
Q4 Margin Outlook – Expect Q4 margins about even with prior year**• Sequential margin improvement vs. third quarter• Reporting segments impacted by steel economics begin to show sequential improvement in Q4• CA Europe impact from launch costs lessen as customer programs ramp
Full Year Revenue Outlook – Expect 2017 revenue to grow 7%, or 6% constant currency, outpacing light vehicle industry production growth of 2%*.• Value-add revenue also expected to grow 7%, or 6% on a constant currency basis
Outlook – Q4 and Full Year
* Source: IHS Automotive October 2017 global light vehicle production and Tenneco estimates. ** Q4 2016 VA adjusted EBIT margin 9.3% See slide 22 for our forecast assumptions 14
Industry Production – YoY% Change
Major Regions Q3’17 Q4’17 FY’17
North America -10% -3% -4%
Europe 5% 7% 3%
South America 26% 20% 21%
China 1% -3% 1%
India 3% 5% 6%
Global Industry Production 2% 1% 2%
Source: IHS Automotive October 2017 global light vehicle production forecast and Tenneco estimates. 15
2017 full year global production forecast of 2%; consistent with previous outlook
Accelerating Core Growth
16
1. Global Aftermarket• Best in Class Core Competencies – #1 position in Americas & EMEA• Leveraging competencies and investing in China – maturing to largest
vehicle aftermarket in the world*• Mobility models drive replacement rates
2. Monroe® Intelligent Suspension• Enabled by trends in autonomous driving, electrification and
connectivity• Growing installation rate and content per vehicle• Increasing need for engineered NVH solutions
3. Clean Air Commercial Truck & Off-Highway• More powertrains moving into regulation than regulated today* –
APAC driven• Higher content per powertrain – proven technology solutions• Anticipated market recovery in Americas & EMEA
4. APAC Light Vehicle Production• 70% of global production growth thru 2030*• Highly competitive technical, manufacturing and supply chain footprint
Multiple and diverse long-term growth drivers* Source: IHS Automotive forecasts, PSR forecasts and/or Tenneco estimates
LV Light VehicleCTOH Commercial Truck & Off-highwayAM Aftermarket
Product ApplicationsVA Revenue
Q3 YTD 2017
Clean Air Opportunities
• Electrification is an opportunity; hybridization driving CA growth– Hybrid production CAGR 32%* through 2025 – EU6 Hybrid value-add CPV expected to increase
30% - 40%** by 2025; at par with ICE CPV– Plug-in hybrids offer additional content
opportunity; packaging, engineering, acoustics and thermal management
• Leveraging increasing regulations– U.S. and Europe LV regs increase content– China and India LV regs catching up to developed
markets– Euro VI equivalent commercial truck regs into
China, India and Brazil– EU Stage V off-highway in 2019, requires DPFs– Phase-in of new off-highway regs in China, India
and Brazil
17
Source: PSR production forecast and Tenneco estimates
Electrification of Light Vehicles
CTOH – Growing # of Vehicles Under Regulation
HybridCAGR 32%
(millions) 2016 2020 2025 CAGRCT: Euro VI (equivalent) 1.1 2.2 3.2 13%
Regulated Off-Hwy 1.1 2.1 4.3 16%
Total 2.2 4.3 7.5 15%
*Source: IHS Automotive October 2017 global production forecast
** Tenneco estimates
Strong Clean Air growth outlook through the next decade
(millions) 2016 2020 2025BEV/FC 0.5 2.2 4.6Hybrid 2.7 12.0 33.3Total build 93 102 110
BEV/FCCAGR 28%
HybridCAGR 32%
Ride Performance Opportunities
• Increasing demand for advanced suspension systems to differentiate ride
• Existing portfolio of technical solutions align with autonomous and electrification trends
– Ride comfort – Reduced NVH– Improved handling – Lightweighting
18
• New mobility models create demand for replacement parts
• Significant aftermarket opportunities as China car parc grows and ages over next decade
RIDE CONTROL and NVH Technology and capability leadership driving growth
AFTERMARKET Bringing market-leading capabilities to high growth markets
Strategic Priorities
19
Diversified portfolio drives organic growth and shareholder value
Current Value-add Revenue Long-term Value-add Revenue
Aftermarket
Ride Performance (OE)
Clean Air (OE)
• Continue outpacing industry production by 3% to 5+%
• Drive margin expansion and improve cash flow performance
• Shift investments to become more light vehicle powertrain agnostic as mix evolves– Invest in Ride Performance technologies aligned with market trends– Increase Aftermarket revenue in portfolio mix
• Build financial strength and maximize flexibilityAftermarket
Ride Performance (OE)
Clean Air (OE)
Source: IHS database, Power Systems Research, Tenneco analysis
Appendix: Commercial Truck and Off-Highway Diesel Aftertreatment Customers
20
Brazil
Commercial Truck• Daimler Trucks • IVECO • MAN• Scania
Japan
Off-Highway• Kubota• Caterpillar / Perkins –
Exported from North America and Europe
India
Commercial Truck• Daimler Trucks• Mahindra• MAN Trucks India (MTI)• Tata Motors• VE Commercial Vehicles• Volvo Trucks
Europe
Off-Highway• AGCO• Caterpillar / Perkins • Deere• Deutz• MAN• Scania
Commercial Truck• Daimler Trucks• Scania• MAN
North America
Off-Highway• Caterpillar / Perkins • Deere
Truck• Chrysler (LV 3/4 ton +) • GM (LV 3/4 ton +)• Ford (LV 3/4 ton +
and CTrk)• Daimler Trucks (CTrk)
China
Commercial Truck• China National
Heavy-Duty Truck Co.• Dalian Diesel Engine Co.• DFAC• FAW• JND• Shanghai Diesel
Engine Co.• Weichai• YuChai
Appendix:Pension and OPEB
Pension 2014 2015 2016 Q3’17 2017E
Defined Benefit Expense* $15 $15 $11 $5 $14
Defined Benefit Contributions $46 $25 $38 $3 $32
OPEB 2014 2015 2016 Q3’17 2017E
Expense $3 $8 $10 $3 $10
Cash Payments $8 $9 $9 $2 $10
* Does not include settlement or curtailment amounts21
$ Millions
Appendix:Tenneco Projections
Tenneco’s revenue outlook for 2017 is as of October 2017. Revenue assumptions are based on projected customer production schedules, IHS Automotive October 2017 forecasts, Power Systems Research October 2017 forecasts and Tenneco estimates.
In addition to the information set forth on this slide and slides 14 and 20, Tenneco’s revenue projections are based on the type of information set forth under “Outlook” in Item 7 – “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” as set forth in Tenneco’s Annual Report on Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2016. Please see that disclosure for further information. Key additional assumptions and limitations described in that disclosure include:
• Revenue projections are based on original equipment manufacturers’ programs that have been formally awarded to the company; programs where the company is highly confident that it will be awarded business based on informal customer indications consistent with past practices; and Tenneco’s status as supplier for the existing program and its relationship with the customer.
• Revenue projections are based on the anticipated pricing of each program over its life.
• Except as otherwise indicated, revenue projections assume a fixed foreign currency value. This value is used to translate foreign business to the U.S. dollar.
• Revenue projections are subject to increase or decrease due to changes in customer requirements, customer and consumer preferences, the number of vehicles actually produced by our customers, and pricing.
Certain elements of the restructuring and related expenses, legal settlements and other unusual charges we incur from time to time cannot be forecasted accurately. In this respect, we are not able to forecast EBIT (and the related margins) on a forward-looking basis without unreasonable efforts on account of these factors and the difficulty in predicting GAAP revenues (for purposes of a margin calculation) due to variability in production rates and volatility of precious metal pricing in the substrates that we pass through to our customers.
22
Adjusted EBIT as a Percentage of Value-add Revenue – Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Results
23
(1) Tenneco presents the above reconciliation of revenues in order to reflect value-add revenues separately from substrate sales, which include precious metals pricing, which may be volatile. Substrate sales occur when, at the direction of its OE customers, Tenneco purchases catalytic converters or components thereof from suppliers, uses them in its manufacturing processes and sells them as part of the completed system. While Tenneco original equipment customers assume the risk of this volatility, it impacts reported revenue. Excluding substrate sales removes this impact. Tenneco uses this information to analyze the trend in revenues before this factor. Tenneco believes investors find this information useful in understanding period to period comparisons in the company's revenues.
(2) Generally Accepted Accounting Principles(3) Tenneco presents the above reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP earnings measures primarily to reflect the results in a manner that allows a better understanding of the results of operational activities
separate from the financial impact of decisions made for the long-term benefit of the company and other items impacting comparability between the periods. Adjustments similar to the ones reflected above have been recorded in earlier periods, and similar types of adjustments can reasonably be expected to be recorded in future periods. Using only the non-GAAP earnings measures to analyze earnings would have material limitations because its calculation is based on the subjective determinations of management regarding the nature and classification of events and circumstances thatinvestors may find material. Management compensates for these limitations by utilizing both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings measures reflected above to understand and analyze the results of the business. The company believes investors find the non-GAAP information helpful in understanding the ongoing performance of operations separate from items that may have a disproportionate positive or negative impact on the company’s financial results in any particular period.
(4) Tenneco presents adjusted EBIT as a percentage of value-add revenue to assist investors in evaluating our company’s operational performance without the impact of substrate sales.
*Financial results for 2016 and first quarter 2017 have been revised for certain immaterial adjustments as discussed in Tenneco’s Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2016 and Form 10-Q/A for the quarter ended March 31, 2017.
$ Millions Q1’16* Q2’16* Q3’16* Q4’16* FY’16*
Net sales and operating revenues $ 2,136 $ 2,212 $ 2,096 $ 2,155 $ 8,599
Less: Substrate sales 510 519 484 515 2,028
Value-add revenues (1) $ 1,626 $ 1,693 $ 1,612 $ 1,640 $ 6,571
EBIT $ 124 $ 171 $ 150 $ 71 $ 516
Adjustments (reflect non-GAAP (2) measures)
Restructuring and related expenses 14 5 7 10 36
Pension charges / Stock vesting - - - 72 72
Adjusted EBIT (non-GAAP Financial Measures) (3) $ 138 $ 176 $ 157 $ 153 $ 624
Adjusted EBIT as % of value-add revenue (4) 8.5% 10.4% 9.7% 9.3% 9.5%