Thinking [Better] About the Future:

A Hands-on Approach to Applying Foresight

Andy Hines

IABC Houston

May 12, 2011

Where I‟m Coming From

• Uncover new opportunities

• Detect threats

• Craft strategy

• Guide policy

• Understand emerging customer needs

• Explore new offering, markets, products, or services

Why Foresight?

Approach

Framing

Framing: What Are We Looking For?

1.1 Know your audience

1.2 Map the innovation landscape

1.3 Set your time horizon

1.4 Polling: Degree of “stretch”

If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra

Fence-sitters Bridge Builders

Laggards

Don’t Get It Get It

Ideologies

True Believers

Pragmatist

1.1 Know Your Audience

1.2 Map the Landscape

KnowledgeWork

WorkersWorkTools

WorkModels

WorkSpaces

EXAMPLE: The Trend Universe is a tool intended to stimulate individual and team thinking

about trends influencing growth or other aspects of the business

http://growth.intranet.dow.com/TrendsSection/TrendsHomePg.htm

ContextualTrends

Social

Chemical

House& Home

Health

Transportation

Food

Industry

Biotech

Infotech

Leisure &Entertainment

Materials

Energy

MarketTrends

Economic

Political

DemographicEnvironmental

Technological

the broad trends in the world at large that plant the seeds of longer-term business opportunities

the trends that are manifested in markets that point to nearer-term business opportunities

MORE TRENDS RESOURCESFor more info on trends or

how to use them in ideation contact

1.3 Set Your Time Horizon

Computer Chips = 18 months Cars = 3-5 years Oil Platforms = 30+ years

What is your product cycle , or the industries you work with?

Degree of Stretch

Degree of “stretch”1. SAFE

Smaller PayoffLess Risk

3. PROVOCATIVEBigger PayoffHigher Risk

A competitor announces a bold move into an innovative new area. How is your organization likely to respond?

Select where your organization falls on this continuum of less to more sophisticated responses

2. IN BETWEEN

In Sum…..

Framing

1.1 Know your audience

1.2 Map the innovation landscape

1.3 Set your time horizon

1.4 Degree of “stretch?”

Scanning

2.1 Look for changes “outside”

2.2 Talk to people

2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory

2.4 Capture the Insights

2.5 Create a trend inventory

Forecasting

3.1 Cluster trends into drivers

3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build

3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces

Scanning

The Kyoto: "These Zen-like slip-ons make me feel light on my feet and

lighthearted. Great for peaceful walks to and from yoga sessions." Oprah

2. Scanning: Where Are “Interesting Things” Happening?

2.1 Look for changes “outside”

2.2 Talk to people

2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory

2.4 Capture insights

2.5 Create a trend inventory

Breadth Plus Depth = Foresight with Insight -- Andy Hines

Issue Emergence: Find Opportunities Before

“ They” Do

Wildcard

Emerging

Framed

Event

LegislatedLitigatedMuch Influence

Little Effort

Little InfluenceMuch Effort

2.1 Look for Changes “Outside”

Industry

Organization

Political

EnvironmentalTechnologicalEconomic

Social

“Outside”

Co-Creation

Authenticity

Experiences

Self-Expression

Sharing

Spirituality

Sustainability

Example: Brands Capitalizing on External Changes

Finding Scanning Hits on the Web

• Search Engines, e.g. Google

• Syndicated Content/Feeds, RSS, Feed Demon

• Alerts, e.g., Google Alerts

• Target specific sites, e.g., Population Reference Bureau

• Bookmarking sites, e.g., Delicious, Magnolia

• Specialized software/data mining, e.g., Porter’s Technology Opportunity Analysis

• Databases, e.g., Lexis-Nexis

• 3rd Party Services, e.g., Social Technologies

2.2 Talk to People

• If I could answer any question for you, what would it be?

• If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the triumph in the ____, what would it be?

• If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the failure in the ______ , what would it be?

• What does the _______ need to forget?

• What are one or two critical strategic decisions regarding the __________ on the horizon?

• What are the top 2 or 3 trends driving the future of the ______?

• What are the obstacles to progress in the ________?

• What should I have asked that I didn’t? (at the end)

Source: Global Business Network, Developing & Using Scenarios, www.gbn.com

Good open-ended questions

2.3 Explore Unfamiliar Territory

Where do you get your best ideas?

Where do you typically come up with your most creative ideas….wherever that might be?

Discussion: Getting Ideas

2.4 Capture the Insights

A complicated form for students….

…a simpler one for time-pressed organizations

Understanding of brain/mind, and how to manipulate them, is growing.

Neuropharmaceuticals developingTechnology

BRIEF DESCRIPTIONINDICATORSCATEGORY

2.5 Create a Trend Inventory

KnowledgeWork

WorkersWorkTools

Work

Models

WorkSpaces

Transparency

Telepresence rooms like “being there”

Reverse brain drain

Gen Y wants to be in charge

Co-working collectives “Hotelling”

Core-contractor structure

Crowdsourcing

“Open innovation”

Free agent nation

Cloud-based tools

Virtual communities growing

In Sum…..

Framing

1.1 Know your audience

1.2 Map the innovation landscape

1.3 Set your time horizon

1.4 Degree of “stretch?”

Scanning

2.1 Look for changes “outside”

2.2 Talk to people

2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory

2.4 Capture the Insights

2.5 Create a trend inventory

Forecasting

3.1 Cluster trends into drivers

3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build

3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces

Forecasting

Forecasting: Where Are the Attractive Spaces?

3.1 Cluster trends into drivers

3.2 Identify “insights” around which to

build opportunity spaces

3.2.1 Identify key uncertainties

3.2.2 Challenge assumptions

3.2.3 Look for potential discontinuities

3.2.4 Create scenarios

3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces

The surprise-free future isn’t – Herman Kahn

The Cone of Plausibility

The Future is

many, not one.

Implications

Past

Source: Charles Taylor, Army War College

Present

Alternative

Futures

Alternative

Futures

Preferred

Future

3.1 Cluster Trends into Drivers

3.2 Identify Key Uncertainties

SnackingGranola

Bars(Healthy)

Donuts(Tasty)

Personal MassUrban Transit

Imp

ort

ance

Uncertainty

Settlement Patterns: Dense vs. Sprawl

Environmental: Lip Service vs. Deep Green

Vehicles: Electric vs. Gas

Transit: Personal vs. Mass

Future of DowntownsHi

Hi

3.3 Challenge Assumptions

Original Assumption:“This is the way the industry works.”

Alternative Assumption“What if we…..”

Libraries should be quietWhat if we made libraries fun places where people

eat, drink, and talk, as well as read and study?

3.4 Look for Potential DiscontinuitiesDematerialization: From Pounds to Sense

More and more of the value of products will come from the information content rather than the physical content. Selling by the pound makes less sense, if you can sell the sense!

TREND IT1: More consumers and businesses are embracing e-commerce.

TREND M1: Materials are becoming smarter.TREND EC12: Commoditization is happening faster and

faster.TREND EC10: New economic measures will emerge to

reflect socially desirable goals, such as environmental quality.

TREND EC11: New models are emerging to explain the "new economy."

TREND EN2: Products are being increasingly designed for re-use.

TREND P5: "Global management" of global-scale issues is emerging.

HydrocarbonCleaning

Solvents c. 1930’s

Perchloroethylenec. 1950’s

Cleaning Servicesc. 2001

• flammable• dangerous

• nonflammable• good vapor properties• neighborhood cleaners

• Safetainer• recycle

• provide expertise

Trend to Value Added

Interface Flooring Systems

Example: IBM Global Innovation Outlook

Insights from academics, industry experts, and business leaders

Define and research key trends in innovation on a global scale.

3.5 Create Scenarios

• A scenario is a product that describes some possible future state and/or that tells the story about how such a state might come about.

– The former are referred to as end state (or even day in the life scenarios); the latter are chain of events scenarios (or future histories).

The Long Boom The Soft Path

Source: Hines; Innovaro (www.innovaro.com)

3.5 Create Scenarios

In the Long Boom world…•25 years of prosperity, freedom, and a better

environment •Current recession just a speed bump

•Driven by five great waves of technology: •(1) PCs

•(2) telecomm• (3) biotech

• (4) nanotech •(5) alternative energy

In the Soft Path world…•Enoughness: consumers rethink consumption

and their lives in general•Recognition of limits

•Sustainability a fact of life•Grassroots-driven change

Sample Scenario: Communi-city

http://vimeo.com/171

23084

35

In Sum…

Framing

1.1 Know your audience

1.2 Map the innovation landscape

1.3 Set your time horizon

1.4 Degree of “stretch?”

Scanning

2.1 Look for changes “outside”

2.2 Talk to people

2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory

2.4 Capture the Insights

2.5 Create a trend inventory

Forecasting

3.1 Cluster trends into drivers

3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build

3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces

ActingPlanningVisioning

4. Visioning, Planning ,& Acting

4.1 Implications via Futures Wheel

4.2 Actions via Start, Stop & Continue

4.3 Institutionalizing

If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra

Future

of

Work

4.1

Implications

via

Futures

Wheel

Augmented

Workers

Need a

policy

Nearsourcing

Strengthen

Local ties

Negotiate w/

multiple

jurisdictions

Training?

Going beyond

paycheck

What fits w/

cultures

What motivates

workforce

Revisit

traditional

practices

Recruiting for

int‟l experience

Inter-

generation

conflict

New pay

practices?

Success-base,

% of profits

Time-based

Rethink hiring

& firing

Annual

contracts?

Project-based

contracts

Intelligence

Lands

Where?

Integrating

smartness

Built-in

smart

infrastructure

Plug & Play

„Docking”

Infrastructure

Fairness

Impossible

Customization

Explaining

“special”

treatment

Need for

Transparency

The Industry Your organization

Challenge

___________

Implication

_______

Alternative: Implications for Different

Stakeholders

Implication

_______

Biz Idea

Biz IdeaBiz Idea

Biz Idea

Implication

_______

Implication

_______

Start Stop Continue

4.2 Planning Exercise: Start, Stop & Continue

4.3 Institutionalize: Push, Pull, Build

• Push: Spread the word to new potential clients– Site Visits, Intranet sites, Business TV, Podcasts, Webcasts, Newsletters, Brown-

Bag lunches, Futures Rooms , Sample Ideation Workshops

• Pull: “Deliver the goods” and create positive “word-of-mouth” – Success breeds success

– Craft a one-pager to concisely describe how you do it

– Set up appointments with other functions in need of filling their innovation pipeline

• Build: Grow your support network– Cultivate communities-of-practice

– Developing your own training course

Activity Benefits

FRAMING (22%) 1. Thinking more diverse open, balanced and non-biased (9%)

2. Focusing on the right questions and problems more clearly (7%)

3. Being aware of, and influencing, assumptions and mental models (6%)

SCANNING (16%) 4. Understanding the context, in all its complexity, through establishing

frameworks (5%)

5. Anticipating change and avoiding surprise (10%)

FORECASTING

(22%)

6. Producing more creative, broader, and deeper insights (16%)

7. Identifying a wider range of opportunities and options (5%)

VISIONING (10%) 8. Prioritizing and making better and more robust decisions (10%)

PLANNING (7%) 10. Constructing pathways from the present to the future that enable

rehearsing for the future (7%)

ACTING (23%) 10. Catalyzing action and change (7%)

11. Building alignment, commitment and confidence (14%)

12. Building a learning organization (2%)

Benefits of Foresight

Recommended Books

• Hines, Bishop, Thinking About the Future

• Peter Schwartz, Art of the Long View

• Glenn, Jerome and Gordon, Ted, Futures Research Methodology, edited by

Jerome Glenn. Millennium Project, February 2003. (CD-ROM)

• Coates, Mahaffie & Hines, 2025

• Wendel Bell, Foundations of FS (but only vol 1)

• Ed Cornish, Futuring

• Richard Slaughter, Knowledge Base of Futures Studies

• Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future

• Alvin Toffler, Future Shock or The Third Wave

• Harman, An Incomplete Guide to the Future or Global Mind Change

• Bernard deJouvenel, Art of Conjecture

• Petersen, John, Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises:

How to Anticipate and Respond to Profound Change, The Arlington

Institute,1997.

• Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology,

Viking 2005.

• Meadows et al, Limits to Growth: The Thirty Year Update

• William Gibson, Neuromancer, Bruce Sterling, Heavy Weather, Vernor Vinge,

Across Real Time

Contact Info

Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence

ahines@uh.edu

832 367 5575

www.andyhinesight.com

Andy HinesU of Houston Futures Studies