thesis : impact of black campaign in social media towards indonesia's presidential election...

Isnanda Sofman Johara Siregar | 108020380 | Limkokwing University Of Creative Technology

IMPACT OF BLACK CAMPAIGN IN SOCIAL MEDIA

TOWARDS INDONESIA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2014: MEASURING SUCCESSFUL OF CAMPAIGN

STRATEGY IN POLITICS.

A STUDY THROUGH QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

A Thesis

Presented to the

Centre for Post Graduate Studies & Professional Development

LIMKOKWING UNIVERSITY OF CREATIVE TECHNOLOGY

In partial fulfillment of

The requirements for the

Masters of Arts in Communications

By

Isnanda Sofman Johara Siregar

108020380

July 2015

1


ABSTRACTThe issue of black campaign that occurred in the last presidential election have

had disturbed how voters decide their choice to be a president. And also the sides of printed media publisher and television channel towards a particular candidate. Somehow they have been violated the press law. The spread of pictures, which mocked and teased two candidates for president, some of them related to racism, religion, inter-group, or even social groups.These indicated that photos of black campaign have spread over the Internet by unknown people, who are not responsible for something they made.

A freedom of speech and campaigning through Facebook and Twitter, without bold practices and implementation of the law, had utilized by some people or group or individual for their own benefits.

This research aims to identify the influences, perception, and the effectiveness of black campaign in the last presidential election through social media.

Research methodology of this study is quantitative, and questionnaires were spread online through Survey Monkey with 200 respondents targeted based on rule of thumb. The reliability and validity of the questionnaires used a Cronbach’s alpha.

The research findings were use a descriptive analysis by explaining each question from the questionnaires from the charts and tables provided by Survey Monkey. And to add some findings, independents sample of T-test was utilized in order to fulfill the research objectives.

Research implication of this study, in short, is comparing the results with the literature review and theories. The theories that related are Elaboration likelihood model that found by Petty and Cacciopo (1987), agenda setting theory by McCombs and Shaw (1968) and limitation effects by Lazarsfield (1955).

In conclusion, this research did found that from the hypothesis that stated (H1) Black campaign gives good impact to the turnout and (H2) black campaign gives bad impact to the turnout are true.

2


ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would love to express my gratitude to Allah, the one and only, for giving me

the strength, patience and sensibility despite the obstacles that I encountered

throughout the journey of implementing this work. This dissertation marks another

milestone in my life and with the sense of humbleness.

This dissertation would not be made possible without the constant guidance

and feedback from my supervisor, Mohd Helmy. Thank you for all the hours you have

spent in making sure this dissertation is done correctly, according to the education

research guidelines.

But, of course, this dissertation would not be a success without the endless

support and unconditional love by my parents, Herman Siregar and Sofiati Masulili

who have been the faithful backbone for my journey. Thank you, papa and mama, for

not giving up on me and having faith in me and my life choices, despite how different

it is from your initial plans for me. Thank you, Allah, for blessing me, my parents.

Last but not least, all my love to my close friends who have been supporting

me mentally and psychically. Thank you guys for always listening to me rambling

about work and giving me ideas on how to make this dissertation a better one.

3


LIST OF CHART

Chart 4.2.1: Response summary ……........................................................... 85 Chart 4.3.1: Gender ...................................................................................... 86Chart 4.3.2: Age………… ............................................................................ 87Chart 4.3.3: Educational Background ........................................................... 87Chart 4.3.4: Occupation………………………..…. ................................... ..88Chart 4.3.5: Respondents’ location…...………...….. ....................................89Chart 4.3.6: Respondents’ participation in the turnout................................ ..90Chart 4.3.7: Political Involvement………………... ..................................... 90Chart 4.3.8: Coalition Preferences…………………................................... ..91Chart 4.3.9: Media Preferences…................................................................ ..92Chart 4.3.10 The use of media in regards to political candidates…………...94Chart 4.3.11: The influences…………….....................................................101Chart 4.3.12: The perception: Respondents’ opinion towards campaign.... 104Chart 4.3.13: Perception: Do they believe this in real life? life?..................105Chart 4.3.14: Perception: Good or Bad………………………................... .106Chart 4.3.15: Effectiveness: Campaign Sources ...………...........................106Chart 4.3.16: Effectiveness: Campaign Methods…....………………......... 107Chart 4.3.16 Effectiveness: Positive, Negative or Black campaign ads.......108

4


LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 : Schedule of Indonesia presidential election in 2014.................................................. 18Table 1.2 : Chart of Facebook audience in Indonesia ................................................................. 28Table 1.3 : Facebook user in Indonesia........................................................................................ 29Table 1.4 : Top 10 twitter user in the world................................................................................. 30Table 1.5 : Twitter audiences in Indonesia in 2012 ..................................................................... 31Table 1.6 : Data snapshot in Indonesia, January 2014 ..................................................................32Table 1.7: Indonesia Population Pyramid…………. ................................................................... 33Table 1.8: Personal & lifestyle characteristic ……...................................................................... 39Table 3.1: Cronbach’s case processing summary………………………..… .............................. 82Table 3.3: Cronbach’s alpha……………………………………………………………….…….83Table 4.3.1: Occupation respondents’ frequency and basic statistic……….................................88Table 4.3.2: Respondents’ involvement in the campaign process (Statistics)………………..….91Table 4.3.3: Media preference’s frequency ……..………………………………………………93Table 4.3.4: Media preferences’ basic statistics……………………….………………………...94Table 4.3.5: The frequency use of media in regards to political candidates…………….... .........98Table 4.3.6: The statistic use of media in regards to political candidates……………….......... 100Table 4.3.7: The influences’ frequency.………………... ......................................................... 103Table 4.3.8: The influences’ basic statistic.……...………......................................................... 103Table 4.3.9: The frequency of perception with the statistics..................................................... .105Table 4.3.10: Frequency for effectiveness: Campaign Sources............................. …………….107Table 4.3.11: Effectiveness: Positive, Negative or Black campaign ads’ frequency…………. 109Table 4.3.12: Effectiveness: Positive, Negative or Black campaign ads basic statistic ............ 109Table 4.3.13: Group statistic between generation X and Y towards perception of black campaign..................................................................................................................................................... 110Table 4.3.14: Independent samples test between generation X and Y towards perception of black campaign……………………………………………………..................................................... 111Table 4.3.15: Independent samples test between generation X and Y towards perception of black campaign (2)………………………………............................................................................... 112

5


LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 1.1: Quick count by RRI and SMRC ................................................................... .13Figure 1.2: Quick count by 9 independent survey ............................................................14Figure 1.3: A distribution number of votes for Prabowo-Hatta.........................................16Figure 1.4: A distribution map number of votes for Jokowi-Kalla…………................... 17Figure 1.5: The Info graphic of Indonesian elections in 2014………………………...... 19Figure 1.6: The differences black and negative campaign.................................................20Figure 1.7: The announcement of what was prohibited in Presidential Election 2014.....23Figure 1.8: Prabowo is on black campaign (1)……….................................................... .24Figure 1.9: Prabowo is on black campaign (2)………......................................................25Figure 1.10:Jokowi is on “Indonesia Sesat”..................................................................... 26Figure 1.11: Black Campaign on Tigers .......................................................................... 26Figure 1.12: Black Campaign & negative over social media ...........................................27Figure 1.13: Media attack candidates for president. ........................................................ 36Figure 1.14: A candidate Jokowi became a headline of “Obor Rakyat…………............ 37Figure 2.1: Elaboration Likelihood Model ...................................................................... 48Figure 2.4. Causal model research framework……………….………………………….76Figure 4.1: Example of political campaign .................................................................... 113Figure 4.2: Two step-flow model (Katz & Lazarsfield, 1955) 1955).…........................ 114

6


TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... 2

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS .........................................................................................……...7

LIST OF CHART……………………………………………….…………………………4

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. 5

LIST OF FIGURE................................................................................................................6

CHAPTER 1- INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 11

I.1.1 Black campaign and negative campaign in political campaign

advertising……………………………………………………………………20

I.1.2 The phenomena of campaigning through social

media……………………………………………...………………………….28

I.I.3 Political campaign through traditional media………………………... ..34

1.2 Research Problem....................................................... .................................. 38

1.3 Research Question .......................................................................................... 40

1.4 Research Goal ................................................................................................ 40

1.5 Research Objectives ...................................................................................... 41

1.6 Hypothetical statement................................................................................... 41

1.7 Research Scope……....................................................................................... 41

1.8 Significance of the Study ............................................................................... 42

1.8.1 Contribution to the Body of Knowledge……………………………42

1.8.2. Contribution to the Practice………………………………………..42

1.9 Operational Definition. .................................................................................. 42

CHAPTER 2 - LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction..................................................................................................... 45

2.2 Theoretical Framework ................................................................................. 47

7


2.2.1 Elaboration Likelihood Model (Petty&Cacciopo, 1987)……...………47

2.2.2 Agenda Setting Theory (McCombs & Shaw, 1968)…………………. 48

2.2.3 Limited effect or social influence (Lazarsfield, 1955)……………...…49

2.2.4 Two-step Flow theory (Lazarsfield&Katz, 1955)……………………..50

2.3 Literature Review ........................................................................................... 51

2.3.1 Demobilization………………………………………………………...52

2.3.2 Mobilization…………………………………………………………...53

2.3.3 H1: Stimulation of republican duty…………………………………....53

2.3.4 H2: Anxiety toward the candidates……………………………………54

2.3.5 H3: Perceptions of increased closeness of the race……………………55

2.3.6 Theory and Expectations………………………………………………57

2.3.7 Expectations: Public Attitudes Toward Campaigns…………………...57

2.3.8 Reactions to Candidate Criticism……………………………………...58

2.3.9 Variation in Attitudes Toward Campaigns……………………………58

2.3.10 Do Negative Campaigns Harm the Political System?..........................61

2.3.11 Measuring stimuli……………………………………………………64

2.3.12 Measuring Impact…………………………………………………….64

2.3.14 The effect of election campaigns…………………………………….69

2.4 Research Framework ...................................................................................... 76

CHAPTER 3 - RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 78

3.2 Type Of Research……................................................................................... 78

3.3 Purpose of research……… ............................................................................ 79

3.4 Research Method .............................................................................................79

3.5 Sample Population ......................................................................................... 80

3.6 Sample Frame ............................................................................................... 80

3.7 Sample Size Estimation…………………………………..……………….…80

3.8 Sampling Method……………………………………………………...……..81

3.9 Dependent and independent variables………………………………………..81

8


3.10 Instrument…………………………………......……………………………81

3.11 Validity and Reliability…………………………………..…………………82

3.11.1 Validity Test………………………………………………………82

3.11.2 Reliability Test……………………………………………………83

3.12 Data Collection……………………………………………………….…….83

3.13 Data Analysis……………………………………………………………….84

CHAPTER 4 - ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 85

4.2 Respondent Background ................................................................................ 85

4.3 Research Finding .............................................................................................86

4.3.1 T-Test independent sample between Generation X and Y towards

specific variables of black campaign in social media……………….……110

4.4 Hypotheses ....................................................................................................112

4.4.1 Influences, information perceived and the effectiveness………...…112

4.4.2 Hypothesis and research findings……………………………….….115

4.5 Conclusion………………………………………………………………….116

CHAPTER 5 – DISCUSSION, RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION

5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 118

5.2 Discussion .................................................................................................... 118

5.3 Achieving Research Objective ..................................................................... 122

5.4 Achieving Research Goal…………………………...………………………124

5.5 Research Implication………………………………………………………..124

5.6 Recommendation and future research………………………………………126

5.7 Limitation of research……………………………………………...……….127

5.8 Conclusion………………………………………………………………….127

REFERENCES ................................................................................................. ………..131

9


APPENDIX

Attachment A – Questionnaires (Survey Monkey) .........................................................140

Attachment B – Cronbach’s Alpha……………………………………………………..145

Attachment C – T-test independent sample test…………………………………….......171

10


|Chapter One|

I. I INTRODUCTIONIndonesia is the third largest democracy country in the world after United

States (USA) and India. The democratic freedoms are happening in various level of

society in Indonesia. When the citizens free to speak their minds and scholars and

college students often take to the street to protest or demonstration about government

policy or urges government to imprison criminals and corruptors.

Indonesia has already experienced 11 political elections since their

independence day on 17 August 1945. The year of those political general elections are

in 1955, 1971, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014 (Jakarta Globe,

2014)

But, the election that conducted in the democracy just started in 2004. Which

for the first time, legislative election does majority voting of the people for

Legislative needs (DPR/MPR) and presidential election conduct by direct election

chosen by individuals (Stott, 2014).

As stated in the previous paragraph, the election years before 2004, during

Soeharto's era as a ruler of the Republic of Indonesia. There was not any general

elections were conducted into democracy (Stott, 2014).

The years between 1971 and 1997, there were only three participants from the

political party who deserved tickets into the general election. They were PPP ( Partai

Persatuan Pembangunan), PDI (Partai Demokrasi Indonesia) and Golkar (Golongan

Karya) (Jakarta Globe, 2014).

But it changed considerably in 1998; the fallen of Soeharto's era, and when the

crisis economy attacked and chaos were destroying the country. The participants of

11


the political party who joined general election in 1999 increased dramatically to 48

political parties (Stott, 2014).

Indonesia's presidential election in 2004, when SBY (Susilo Bambang

Yudhoyono) and Jusuf Kalla won, they became president and vice president of RI.

This election was the first election that contains democracy practices in the system.

There was only one flaw, when Megawati, a contender of SBY, did not attend the

president and vice president ceremony (Hamid, 2009).

According to KPU regulations, the constitutions or law that govern the

election is UU no.42 Tahun 2008 about the election of president and vice-president.

Then, UU no 22 Tahun 2007 about the execution of the election, and for legislative

there is a UU no 10 Tahun 2008 about general election for DPR, MPR, DPD, DPRD.

The last presidential election conducted in last 2014. When Jokowi (Joko

Widodo) And Jusuf Kalla were crowned to lead the country for the next five years.

The election itself held on 9th July of 2014, with two pairs of candidates, they were

Jokowi and JK; the other was Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa (Connelly, 2014).

Connelly (2014) indicated that Jokowi, and JK have succeeded to collect about

70,9 million voters and gain 53 % of them, Prabowo and Hatta. Although, Prabowo

disappointed about the result and had suspected on vote buying from Jokowi's side,

abort his victory. And he dropped this issue to a Constitutional Court, but the

authority's answer took Jokowi's side, as the official president instead of Prabowo.

12


Figure I.1 a quick count about the result of the presidential election by RRI and

SMRC.

Source: https://twitter.com/DKUUSAKTI/status/486789998427910145

A quick count provided by two independent survey institutes, RRI, and

SMRC. It is showing that pair of Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla has won the election, by

winning 52.38 % and 52.81 % of an overall vote in the election. Which the other

candidate, Prabowo and Hatta Rajasa had only 47.62% and 47.19% of the votes

respectively.

13


Figure I.2 A Quick count result of the presidential election, conducted by nine independent survey institutes.

Source: google.com

The other results from 9 survey institutes in Indonesia also showed that

Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla won the election through percentage of the results from those

survey institutes, despite this quick counts was not an official.

14


A study institute from Populi Centre (2014) announced that Jokowi-Jusuf

kalla had won 47.2 %, while Prabowo-Subianto had only 36.9 %; the rest of 15.6 %

had decided not to vote.

Other surveys from SSSG, Alvara Research, and Cyrus Network (2014)

displayed that Jokowi-JK is the winner either. The result showed in percentage of

42.65% and 38.8% and 53.6%. Other candidates, Prabowo-Hatta had gained 28.35 %

and 29% and 41.1%. And the percentages of voters who did not vote were 29% and

32.2% and 5.2%.

Also more results from LSI Denny Ja, Pol-Tracking, and Indo Barometer

(2014) also won the candidate Jokowi and Kalla with the percentage of each 48.5 %

and 48.5% and 49.9 %. Meanwhile, the lost candidate had the result of 38.7 % and

41.1 % and 36.5 %. And the voters who failed not to vote were 12.8 % and 10.4% and

13.6%.

However, There were two survey institutes that decide a candidate Prabowo-

Hatta to be a winner of the election, it was based on their database surveys. Those

institutes were LSN and PDB. Prabowo-Hatta had each 31.8 % and 38.7 % of the

result. But Jokowi-Jusuf kalla had only 38.8% and 29.9%. And undecided voters were

reached 38.3 % and 12.8%.

15


Figure I.3 A distribution map number of votes for Prabowo-Hatta.

Source: http://ryanfanani.blogspot.com/2014/07/pilpres-map-2014-rekap-resmi-real-count.html

A map above is showing number of votes of each province in Indonesia,

which Prabowo-Hatta had won. There are total 34 areas in Indonesia. And both

candidates must do their best during the political campaign unto those provinces with

their influences. And their vision and mission to the country and the people, to win

people’s heart and to ensure they win the election in each province.

In the last presidential election of 2014, a pair of Prabowo-Hatta had won

some provinces as they have their influences there. On the map, it shows that this pair

covered some areas. Such as Aceh, West Sumatera, DKI Jakarta, Banten, West Java,

Maluku, North Maluku, West Nusa Tenggara, West Celebes, Southeast Celebes,

North Celebes and West Borneo.

The election abroad for the citizens who live in foreign countries, Prabowo-

Hatta had covered 46.29 % of votes.

16


Figure I.4 A distribution map number of votes for Jokowi-Kalla.

Source: http://ryanfanani.blogspot.com/

And also Jokowi-Kalla had their votes and came as a winner in some

provinces in Indonesia, during the political campaign and election. In this political

map, this pair of candidates covered regions. Such as North Sumatera, Batam,

Bengkulu, Riau Islands, Bangka-Belitung, Yogyakarta, East Borneo, North Borneo,

Central Borneo, West Borneo, West Celebes, North Celebes, Southern Celebes, West

Papua and Papua.

The election also conducted for Indonesian citizens who live abroad. In the

last election, this candidate had won 53.15 % of the votes.

17


Table 1.1. Schedule of Indonesia presidential election in 2014.

Source: http://www.pemilu.com/jadwal-pemilu-2014/

Table 1.1. Shows the stages of the election. It starts from April 2013 for

registering names and verification of the names of the representatives. And the early

next year, from 11 January to 5 April 2015 is the implementation of political

campaign in public. The legislative election is held on 9th of April and Presidential

election is on 9 July 2015.

18

http://www.pemilu.com/jadwal-pemilu-2014/


Figure I.5 The Info graphic of Indonesian elections in 2014.

Source: http://www.anwibisono.com/2014/03/infographic-talking-asean-indonesian.html

The info graphic from The Habibie Centre (2014) shows that in ASEAN

region, Indonesia makes up 39 % of total population of the region, it is include of

Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar, Burma, and

Cambodia.

Republic of Indonesia is also retaining 38 % of Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) throughout the region. It is proved that the country holds a significant role in

ASEAN. Indonesia’s chief exports are mining, crude oils, palm oils, fishes, garments,

handcrafted products, furniture, etc.

In the aspect of land area in ASEAN, Indonesia has 41 % of a total area. It

includes the islands and seas because the country is an archipelago. The largest

19


islands in Indonesia among others are Borneo, Papua, Java, Sumatera, Celebes, and

Bali.

I.1.1 BLACK CAMPAIGN AND NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN IN

POLITICAL CAMPAIGN ADVERTISING.

Figure I.6 The differences between Black and Negative campaign.

Source: https://twitter.com/indra_d0ank/status/472546059471056897

There are differences between Negative and black campaign in a political

campaign, both in definition term and practice term. Even tough these two types of

campaign are attacking a candidate with negative things, but they have the significant

difference in some reason. (Ali, 2015)

20


According to Wattenberg, Martin P. (August 22, 1996) the definition of

negative campaign is trying to win an advantage by referring to negative aspects of an

opponent or of a policy rather than emphasizing one's positive attributes or preferred

policies.

The example of negative campaign is when Jokowi were being cornered by his

opponent, Prabowo's coalition (Indonesia Bangkit), by questioning Jokowi's ability as

a Governor of Jakarta. They doubted Jokowi's commitment as a Governor of Jakarta

in period 2012-2017, but before he finished his role, he decided to resign and

participated in a presidential election (Masha, 2014).

Another example is Prabowo's controversy about his past when he was in

military service. His black history used by Jokowi's coalition (Indonesia Hebat) to

cornered Prabowo's vote in the election. Prabowo's past in Timor-Leste in 1998,

involved in brutally murder towards innocent people made him out from military.

President Soeharto's removed his role in military service after those incidents (Masha,

2014).

The definition of black campaign is a dirty campaign to knock down the

opponent by using negative issues like races, religions, and ethnicity and intergroup

(Ali, 2015).

The example of black campaign while the newspaper called "Obor Rakyat"

was told people during the election campaign that Jokowi is not a Muslim. But he was

misguided as a Christian and a Satan worshipper because he likes to listen to black

metal and rock music such as Metallica. He also said to be a communist stooge

(Republika, 2014).

Because Prabowo was accused as a gay, he is impotent that caused him got

divorced by his previous wife many years ago. Another black campaign stated that

21


Prabowo is not a patriot of the country but as a fascist and will change Indonesia as a

fascist country just like Germany back in World War II (Bachelard, 2014).

However, black campaign is a fraud in democracy, and there is a law set the

procedures of political campaign. It was contained in the article of third and fourth of

UU No 10 Tahun 2008. This law is concerning the election campaign that should not

be done by way of insulting someone, race, ethnicity, religion, class candidates or

other electoral participants, by inciting and pitting individuals and society (Habibi,

2014)

KPU (A Commission of General Election) has set a decree about violation of

black campaign. Which was contained in an act of law made by KPU. And it will

punish whoever spread the black campaign for 18 months of imprisonment. The Act

is the implementation of a presidential election of law of UU Pilpres no 23 Tahun

2008 article 28.

KPU had regulated what was banned in a political campaign. There are some

issues that must not happen during the campaign time. It is stated in the law of KPU

No 16 Tahun 2014, about presidential election, and UU no.42 Tahun 2008, about the

election of president and vice-president.

22


Figure I.7 The announcement of what was prohibited in Presidential Election

2014.

Source: https://twitter.com/fadjroel/status/477987704517296128

According to KPU regulation about general election no 15 tahun 2013, there

are things that prohibited during a political campaign:

1. Insulting ethnicity, religion, races, and social group of the candidates, it aims to

incite or provoke a person or people.

2. Money politics. It is by giving people money to ensure they choose the candidate.

3. Installing campaign attributes inappropriate location, such as hospital, government

building, educational institutes, places for pray, city roads, parks, and trees.

23


4. It is not allowed that a TV channel broadcast a candidate in a long period. And its

advertisement duration is should, not more than 30 seconds.

5. During the quiet period of the campaign, the candidates are not allowed to make

any movement of the campaign.

6. And all kind of mass media and printed media, both are below the line or above

the line are prohibited to broadcast for candidates.

Figure 1.8 Prabowo is on Black Campaign (1).

Source: www.facebook.com

These two pictures are showing Prabowo on black campaign through social

media during the campaign period in the year of 2014. Figure 1.8 demonstrates that

Prabowo is portrayed nakedly with both hands covered his legs. And it is written that

Prabowo just has a big ambition but he doesn’t have an active genital to reproduce, a

gay friend, and a girlfriend, even she male.

Figure 1.9 Prabowo is on Black Campaign (2).24

http://www.facebook.com/


Source: www.facebook.com

Figure 1.9 is showing Prabowo and his colleagues from coalition wore

woman dress with hijab as if in the Indonesian television show, “Surga yang tertukar”

or “ Heaven are swapped” to be “Survey yang ditukar” or “Survey were exchanged”.

This campaign was made after Prabowo did a protest of the result of the election,

which the result tells that Jokowi was the winner of the election.

Figure 1.10 Jokowi is on,”Indonesia Sesat”.

25

http://www.facebook.com/


Source: Twitter

A picture above is showing Jokowi misguided and not a Muslim. The

background is showing all Muslims enemy all over the world and said that;” Enemies

of the Islam support Jokowi”. While Jokowi himself is showing a metal sign from his

hand.

Figure 1.11 Black Campaign on Tigers.

Source: Twitter.

26


Figure 1.11 It is showing a picture two candidates for president and vice-

president of RI. A candidate Prabowo and Hatta was pictured as “ an Asian Tiger”.

Meanwhile Jokowi and JK are pictured as “a Market Cat”. What an unfair

comparison.

Figure I.12 Black Campaign and Negative over social media.

Source: http://sp.beritasatu.com/pemilu-2014/survei-politicawave-kampanye-hitam-paling-banyak-

menyerang-jokowi-jk/56964

The figure above is showing the black campaign and the negative campaign

over social media towards the candidates. According to politicalwave.com (2014),

27


Prabowo-Hatta has received attack that consist of 94,9 % of black campaign and 5,1%

of negative campaign.

1Meanwhile, a candidate of Jokowi-Kalla also received the attack, it consist of

94,9 % of black campaign and 5,1 % of negative campaign. It was happened during

the campaign in the period between 1th and 31 may of 2014.

I.1.2 THE PHENOMENA OF CAMPAIGN THROUGH SOCIAL

MEDIA.

Table 1.2 Chart of facebook audience in Indonesia.

Source: facebook.com

During presidential election campaign, there are some events that happened in

Indonesia's political situation. Firstly, there is black campaign that attack over social

media who cornered all both candidates. Secondly, the use of technology of the

Internet in Indonesia have raised significantly as emerging media for political

campaign compared to the previous election in 2004 and 2009 (Statista, 2015).

Thirdly, there are debate-wars about who-will-win the president over the Internet

1 Netizen : peipole who use internet

28


among netizen1. The use of Internet technology, such as Twitter and Facebook, has

made the citizen speak their mind without any limitation barriers.

Generation Y could be the main factor of why these things happened to social

media. Unlike generation X that is more familiar with Television's political campaign,

printed campaign in newspaper or magazines and posters and banners. Generation Y

is more open to something new such as Internet and smartphone, which easily to be

use nowadays. They can access those social media just by clicking their fingers on

their devices, and their voices spread to the whole country and netizen's world.

Table I.3 Facebook user in Indonesia

Source: http://missdk.blogdetik.com/files/2012/05/662de5d828d24d896dff0353bb44cce0_fb.jpg

From Table I.2, It explains that Generation Y (a combination of age range

between 13-17 and 18-25 years old) is the largest Facebook user in Indonesia by

reaching almost 62 %. While Generation X (an accumulation group age range

between 26-54 years old) reach their audience by 27 %.

29


Table 1.4 A List of top 10 countries with the most Twitter users in the world in 2013.

Source: http://poster.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Screen-Shot-2014-10-18-at-11.29.38-AM.png

In 2013, Indonesia was number four out of ten with most Facebook users in

the world, behind United States, India, and Brazil. With a population about

248.645.008 by end of 2012, the Facebook users in Indonesia reach 51.096.860 as an

equal to 25 % of the total population.

This means facebook user in a range of Generation Y is about 31.620.000

netizens (62%), meanwhile Generation X holds to 13.770.000 netizens (27%).

30


Table 1.5. Twitter audiences in Indonesia, in 2012.

Source: http://netpreneur.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/tabel-twitter.jpg

Table 1.4 shows that in a twitter world, Indonesia is the fifth largest Twitter

users in the world. While US leads the position as number one with 107 million users.

Followed by Brazil, Japan, and UK with 33, 30, 24 million users respectively. Netizen

in Indonesia, who use Twitter, have reached 19.5 million by 2012.

The use of social media in Indonesia has grown significantly year-by-year. It

shows in Table 1.5, about variety of social media that popular among netizen in

Indonesia. There are Facebook, Twitter, Google+, LinkedIn, and Instagram.

From data above, from January 2014 each of those social media usages raised

significantly than the previous month (on December 2013). Facebook usage has

increased 34 %; Twitter grew by 39%, Google+ by 41 %, then LinkedIn and

Instagram, by 24% and 20%.

31


Table I.6. Data Snapshot in Indonesia, January 2014.

Source: http://cdn.id.techinasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/slide-indo-1.jpg?f6b942

The graph above is showing total population with Internet users, Facebook

users and mobile subscriptions and its penetration of Indonesia by January 2014.

There are total 251.160.124 with 51 % of people are living in cities, and the rest lives

in villages, suburbs, and rural areas.

The Internet users in Indonesia have reached 15% of the population or equal to

28.191.873. Meanwhile, the Facebook users in Indonesia have reached 62.000.000,

and its penetration reached 25%.

Because the trend nowadays, people tend to use smartphone as a replacement

of conventional phone. They were exchanging email, chatting on the Internet, share

their ideas or thought through Facebook, twitter or other social media, just by clicking

their fingers on their smartphone (Smith, 2015).

32


Total mobile subscription, which is active, reached 281.963.665

subscriptions. With its penetration have reached doubled time by 112%, and it is still

growing by the time goes.

Table I.7 Indonesia population pyramid 2014 (by Indexmundi).

Source: http://aseanup.com/indonesian-youth-habits-entertainment/

Age structure in Indonesia (CIA World Factbook 2014 est.)

0-14 years: 26.2% – male 33.854.520 / female 32.648.568




65 years and over: 6.5% – male 7.176.865 / female 9.308.056

Total: 253.609.643 – male 126.857.388 (50.02%) / female 126.752.255 (49.98%)

33


These are the age structures of Indonesia population pyramid in 2014. It is to

measure the generation X and generation Y in Indonesia who involved in both general

election and the presidential election in 2014.

These generations who are voting and also participate in the spreading of

black campaign, negative campaign and also active campaign through media and

social media.

According to Youth Laboratory Indonesia (2014), generation Y is covered

17.1 % of a total population of Indonesia. And this generation consists of the male

with about 22.067.716 people, and female with 21.291.548.

And Generation X is covered up about 42.3 %, and it consists of male to be

about 54.500.650 and female 52.723.359.

I.I.3 POLITICAL CAMPAIGN THROUGH TRADITIONAL

MEDIA.

However, there were also TV channels that associated with some political

parties in Indonesia. Prabowo's coalition is Koalisi Merah Putih2 had TV One to

support his active campaign (The owner is a political leader of Golkar Party, Aburizal

Bakrie). And also RCTI (The owner was Harry Tanoe) was supporting Prabowo's

side too (Aminulloh, 2014).

BBC (2014) stated that Whether Jokowi's coalition is called Indonesia Hebat,

were cooperated with some TV channels to support their political campaign, such as

Metro TV (Owned by Surya Paloh, a chairman of Nasional Demokrat Party).

According to Tempo (2014), there are seven media publishing, including

television or printed media or online news that involved in the political campaign in

the last presidential election.

34


1. TV One was broadcasting more about Golkar Party.

2. Metro TV, were broadcasting more about Nasional Demokrat Party.

3. Media Indonesia is a national newspaper owned by Surya Paloh, a chairman of

Nasional Demokrat Party.

4. Rakyat Merdeka (Jawa Pos), is a national newspaper under a publisher of Jawa Pos.

This press tends to proclaim a good news about Dahlan Iskan, a chairman Jawa Pos

form Democrat Party.

5. Seputar Indonesia (MNC Group), is a news station that has a newspaper and news

channel in television.

6. Okezone.com is leading online news in Indonesia.

7. RCTI (MNC Group), were broadcasting about Prabowo and his colleagues.

In addition, according to Munir, R (2014). There are mainstream media that

was very obvious supporting their candidates for presidents. These media can be

classified into three groups:

A. PRINTED MEDIA:

1. Newspapers who support Jokowi: all media under the name of Kompas-

Gramedia(Kompas, Tribun), all media owned by Dahlan Iskan (Jawa Pos Group)

Suara Pembaruan, Sinar Harapan, Media Indonesia, Koran Tempo.

2. Newspapers who support Prabowo: Inilah Koran, Koran Sindo..

3. Magazine who supports Jokowi: Tempo

4. Magazines who support Prabowo: None.

B. TELEVISION MEDIA:

1. TV channel supports Jokowi: Metro TV

2. TV channels support Prabowo: TV One, Anteve, all television channels under of

MNC Group (Global TV, RCTI, TPI).

35


C. INTERNET MEDIA

1. Online news support Jokowi: Detik.com, Kompas.com, Tribunnews.com

2. Online news support Prabowo: Vivanews.com, Okezone.com, Inilah.com

Figure I.13 Media attack candidates for president.

Source: http://www.voa-islam.com/read/intelligent/2014/06/01/30701/prabowo-vs-jokowi-siapa-terpercik-black-

campaign-negative/#sthash.BZOeqfuJ.dpbs

A figure above is to show the compare of the attack of media towards two

candidates. Whether, according to Piktochart, Prabowo Subianto has received the

attack consist of 80 % of black campaign and 20 % of negative campaign.

And the issues that Prabowo must face were about human rights and his plan

to coup d’etat the Republic of Indonesia. Also, he had the face the negative campaign

about his harmony in a family, because he divorced with Titiek Soeharto. A daughter

from a former president of Indonesia, Soeharto (Suara Pembaruan,2014).

36

http://www.voa-islam.com/read/intelligent/2014/06/01/30701/prabowo-vs-jokowi-siapa-terpercik-black-campaign-negative/#sthash.BZOeqfuJ.dpbs

http://www.voa-islam.com/read/intelligent/2014/06/01/30701/prabowo-vs-jokowi-siapa-terpercik-black-campaign-negative/#sthash.BZOeqfuJ.dpbs


On the other hand, Pratomo (2014) wrote that a candidate of Jokowi has

received attack from the media that consist of 90 % of news of negative campaign and

the rest were 10 % of black campaign.

Media were investigating and found that Jokowi had done some lies and

imaging himself during his role as Major of Solo city and a governor of Jakarta. The

negative facts about him like the news of national car brand ESEMKA. And the issue

of restructuring of management of Tanah Abang market and Trans Jakarta’s issue

about importing buses, and also his plan in developing Mass Rapid Transportation:

Monorail, until he became president, was not successfully done during his career

(Pratomo, 2014).

Figure I.14 A candidate Jokowi became a headline of “Obor Rakyat”.

Source: http://www.jakpro.id/order-hitam-dibalik-obor-rakyat/

37


Figure above is an evidence of how black campaign happened during the

election. It was when a newspaper called “Obor Rakyat” were discredited a Jokowi’s

image by spreading black campaign news about him (Salim, 2015).

Salim’s (2015) articles indicates that the first cover, a left one, is showing

Jokowi kissed a hand of Megawati, a leader of PDI-P political party, and also a fourth

President of the Republic of Indonesia.

The second cover is showing Jokowi with many faces to attract people’s heart.

The headline said that” Jokowi with 1001 masks of imaging himself”(Priyo, 2014).

I.2. RESEARCH PROBLEMThis issue of black campaign had raised and became headlines throughout the

country during the presidential election.

Both traditional media and social media were pioneered the black campaign

spread over newspaper, television, magazines, facebook, twitter, path, and Instagram.

And public knows and aware of these things.

This issue generates the people, in this matter, generation X and generation Y,

were they affected by these issues, or not?.

38


Table I.8 Personal and Lifestyle Characteristic by generation.

Source: http://www.fdu.edu/newspubs/magazine/05ws/generations.htm

These traits between Generation X and Generation Y, this is only to mention

the core values and their communication media preferences.

Generation X core values are they are skepticism, fun, and informality. While,

generation Y is more realism, confidence, extreme fun and more social (Hammil,

2005).

Hammil (2005) added that in terms of communication media, generation X is

more into cell phone or call me only at work. While, generation Y is more modern

with the advancement of technology nowadays, by using an Internet, picture phones,

and e-mail.

The issue of black campaign that occurred in the last presidential election have

had disturbed how voters decide their choice to be a president. And also the sides of

printed media publisher and television channel towards a particular candidate.

Somehow they have been violated the press law. (Faisal, 2014)

39


The spread of pictures, which mocked and teased two candidates for

president, some of them related to racism, religion, inter-group, or even socials (Ali,

2014).

Ali (2014) indicated that photos of black campaign have spread over the

Internet by unknown people, who are not responsible for something they made.

Even tough Indonesia Government had responded to this problem and had

made legal basis of law to this problem, yet the application of the act was not firm and

bold (Ali, 2014).

A freedom of speech and campaigning through Facebook and Twitter,

without bold practices and implementation of the law, had utilized by some people or

group or individual for their benefits (Rutledge, 2013).

I.3. RESEARCH QUESTION

1. How is the black campaign influence the turnout for the presidential election over

social media?

2. How generation Y and X perceived the information of black campaign, their

thought process and their vote-intentions?

3. How much effectiveness is the black and negative campaign through social media

in Indonesia?

I.4. RESEARCH GOALThis study has a goal: to identify the influence, information received, and the

effectiveness of black campaign through social media.

40


In addition, because of the use of social media, this study also identify the

respondents based on their age, they are generation X and generation Y. So another

goal of this study is to identify the perception between these generation.

I.5. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE• Identify the influence of black campaign in presidential election towards the

voters.

• Identify on how voters perceived with this kind of advertisement.

• Evaluate the effectiveness of the black campaign and negative campaign and

positive campaign over social media in Indonesia.

I.6. HYPHOTETICAL STATEMENT1. Black campaign gives positive impact to the turnout.

2. Black campaign gives negative impact to the turnout.

I.7. RESEARCH SCOPEThis study uses Facebook and Twitter as medium for black campaign that

happened in the last presidential election for Indonesia in 2014, the clash between two

politicians, Prabowo Subianto, and Jokowi.

In political campaign, there are many types of advertising campaign. One of

them is black campaign, the other are positive campaign and negative campaign.

A sensitive issue of racism, religion, inter-groups and social level in the

political advertisement had injured the ethic code of press and democracy.

41


I.8. SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

1.8.1 Contribution to the Body of Knowledge

This study would help future researcher or educator to understand more of

how black campaign took influences the presidential election 2014, in regards to

generation differences and education. Besides that, this study and its finding could be

used as a starting landmark / platform for a more in-depth study of Political

advertisement.

1.8.2. Contribution to the Practice

As mentioned above, there is not much research done on the comparison

between generation X and Y in terms of the black campaign over social media

(Facebook and Twitter) in Indonesia. This study could help the advertising agency,

companies, and marketing team to understand better the effect and influence of black

campaign, negative campaign, and an active campaign have on during a political

campaign and election. The study's result could also improve organizations' marketing

and promotional initiatives.

I.9. OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONDPR is People’s Consultative Council. DPR has the same level of power as President.

MPR is People’s Consultative Assembly. MPR has higher power than President and

has right to dismantle a role of President of the Republic Of Indonesia.

42


PPP is a Party of Unity and Development. One of the oldest political party in

Indonesia. They have established since New Order when Soeharto’s regime is still on

top. And they have Muslims as their basis followers and green as their identity color.

PDI is Party of Democracy of Indonesia. This political party has been always become

an opposition party against the government since they have born. Their identity color

is red.

GOLKAR is Party of Work Group. Golkar was a dominant political party in

Indonesia in 1970’s – 1999’s. Because of Soeharto’s regime, this party was the

strongest above all and takes dominance in all aspect of the country.

Koalisi Merah Putih is a coalition to support a pair of candidate for president and

vice-president, Prabowo and Muhammad Hatta. This coalition consists of 5 parties

(Golkar, Gerindra, PPP, PAN, PKS).

Indonesia Hebat is a coalition supporting Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla. This coalition

consists of four political parties (Hanura, PDI-P, NasDem, PKPI)

Netizen is a user of the Internet.

KPU is a Commission of General Election in Indonesia.

NasDem is Party of National and Democrat. They established after reformation era.

And NasDem is led by Surya Paloh; a dominant media corporate in Indonesia.

MNC is Media Nusantara Citra. MNC is a holding company, which has Television

channels and newspapers in Indonesia. TPI, RCTI, and Global TV are their products.

43


Generation X was born between 1965 and 1980, Generation X grew up in an era of

emerging technology and political and institutional was not advanced like today.

Generation Y was born between 1977 and 1994. They are much more racially and

ethnically diverse and they were much more segmented as an audience aided by the

rapid expansion of Cable TV channels, satellite radio, and the Internet.

RI is the Republic of Indonesia.

44


|Chapter Two|

2.1 INTRODUCTIONIndonesian general and presidential election has passed, and since the

ceremonial president had conducted around October 2014, the new government ruled

by the president and vice-president, Joko Widodo and Jusuf Kalla, have been rulling

the republic of Indonesia for almost 6 months or half year. (Connelly, 2014)

These new ruler of the countries had won over their rivals, Prabowo Subianto

and Hatta Rajasa, through direct voting that held on July 2014. But in the process of

the election and the campaign, these agenda had some flaws and somehow affect the

turnout (Bachelard, 2014).

The flaws that happened during the election of 2014 were a lot of the practices

of negative campaign and black campaign by both candidates over social media

(Stott, 2014)

Stott (2014) added that, this study sees social media as the main medium of

negative and black campaign through Facebook and Twitter.

In general, these kinds of practices are relatively new as a method of

campaigning. However, social media use, as campaign vehicles could not be avoided

unlike the previous edition of election in Indonesia (Aminullah, 2014).

Specifically, through deeper study, the practices of negative and black

campaign in Indonesia’s presidential election have destroyed four components in

advertising, politics, and the freedom of speech (Noor, 2014).

45


Firstly, advertising ethics, even tough in the country like United States, these

kind of practices had permitted and been implemented many times in the election. For

instances, from George Bush Sr. and Jr., Bill Clinton, and Barrack Obama’s era, these

candidates were obviously did negative and black campaign towards their rivals to

gain advantages and win the election. But in Indonesia, these things are relative new

and the voters both from generation X and Y, are not getting used to these. The

democracy in Indonesia has grown beautifully, we must learn from another countries’

election, especially towards this black campaign practices (Kartila, 2014).

Secondly, human rights, these practices have automatically violence basic

human rights. Even tough negative political advertisement is still acceptable, but the

black campaign is the opposite and not acceptable (Kartila, 2014).

Furthermore, by spreading lies towards the candidates, it will impact the

turnout decision to vote. In this side, education level and life experience is a key

factor of how and what the turnout’s thought process, their reaction and what will

they act later on. The miss information through social media has reached a level that it

has sensitive issues of human being; they are racism, religion, and human integrity

(Faisal, 2014).

Thirdly is the election law and ethics. Obviously, even tough both the

commission of national election (KPU) and government had regulated the law and

give punishment of whoever violence the law, in the last election this law was seemed

weak and was not bold to give any punishment to the actors of black campaign.

(Suara Pembaruan, 2014)

Fourth is the Internet law and ethics. As the medium of this propaganda, the

flaws of regulation had benefited the spreading of black campaign through twitter and

Facebook (Parikesit, 2014).

46


2.2 THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK

2.2.1 Elaboration likelihood model (Petty & Cacioppo, 1987).

Yocco (2014) wrote that Persuasion is part of every aspect of our lives.

Politicians want our vote, businesses want us to buy their products, and people want

us to like them.

The elaboration likelihood model (ELM) of persuasion includes two possible

routes of persuasion or attitude change: the central and peripheral. (Yocco, 2014)

The central route holds that a person is more likely to be persuaded if he is

able to elaborate on message extensively. That is, if he is motivated to think about the

message, is able to think about it, and if the message is strong one, he will be

persuaded in accordance with the message (Moore, 2000).

The peripheral route states that if a person is unable to elaborate on a message

extensively, then she may still be persuaded by factors that have nothing do with the

actual content of the message itself. That is that she would be drawn to the message

by factors that she is already familiar with and has positive attitudes about and would

associate those attitudes with the message. She would then be persuaded toward the

message, albeit weakly and temporarily (Moore, 2000).

47


Figure 2.1 Elaboration Likelihood Model.

Source: Petty, R.E., Kasmer, J., Haugtvedt, C. & Cacioppo, J. (1987)

2.2.2 Agenda setting theory (McCombs & Shaw, 1968)

This theory was founded spread to public by Maxwell McCombs and Donald

Shaw in 1972 in Public Opinion Quarterly. They originally suggested that the media

sets the public agenda, in the sense that they may not exactly tell you what to think,

but they may tell you what to think about. In their first article where they brought this

theory to light their abstract states (Davie, 2010).

48


This support Spring’s (2002) evidence that “ This impact of the mass media-

the ability to effect cognitive change among among individuals, to structure their

thinking- has been labeled the agenda-setting function of mass communication. Here

may lay the most important effect of mass communication, its ability to mentally

order and organize our world for us. In short, the mass media may not be successful in

telling us what to think, but they are stunningly successful in telling us what to think

about.” (McCombs and Shaw, 1976)

Agenda Setting has two levels. As mentioned in Theories of

Communication, the first level enacts the common subjects that are most important,

and the second level decides what parts of the subject are important. These two levels

of agenda setting lead path into what is the function of this concept. This concept is

process that is divided into three parts according to Rogers and Dearing in their

book Agenda Setting Research. The first part of the process is the importance of the

issues that are going to be discussed in the media. Second, the issues discussed in the

media have an impact over the way the public thinks, this is referred as public agenda.

Ultimately the public agenda influences the policy agenda. Furthermore “ the media

agenda affects the public agenda, and the public agenda affects the policy agenda.”

(Littlejohn, 2002).

2.2.3 Limited effect or social influence (Lazarsfield, 1955).

Costello and Moore (2007) in Cultural Outlaws: An Examination of Audience

Activity and Online Television Fandom quoted that “the influence of the media is not

consistent across the audience, but the impact varied according to the individual and

the situation” (Lazarsfeld & Katz, p.125, 1955 ).

49


Faudzi (2012) explained briefly about Lazarsfield’s theory who developed the

use of sophisticated surveys to measure media influence on how people’s thought and

act.

Moreover, Faudzi (2012) added that these surveys provided convincing

evidence that media rarely are powerful and has direct influence on individuals. The

effects were limited in scope. Media can only influence few people in their thoughts

and actions, which were referred to as Limited Effects Perspective. That is the idea

that the media have limited effects on individual.

The Limited Effects Theory is a mass communication theory, which argues

that the influence from a mass media message on individual is limited or even trivial.

Media rarely directly influence individuals. Most people are sheltered from direct

propaganda manipulation. People did not believe everything what they hear or see in

the media. And they usually turn to others for advice and interpretations (Katz

&Lazarsfield, 1955).

2.2.4 Two Step Flow (Lazarsfield & Katz, 1955).

The idea of this theory was that messages pass from the media through (inter-

mediaries) such as Opinion Leaders to Opinion Followers (Faudzi, 2012).

Opinion leaders was describe such as: media will be only be influence if the

opinion leaders who guide others are influenced first; opinion leaders are

sophisticated, critical and not easily manipulated by media content; by the time most

people becomes adults, they have developed strong held group commitments; the

individual media messages are powerless to overcome the commitment cause people

to reject certain messages; media effects occur, it will be small and isolated

(Lazarsfield & Katz, 1955).

50


Opinion followers was describe as people who receive information from

opinion leaders, they received second handed information. And receive not only facts

but also the input of an opinion leader on that particular subject (Lazarsfield & Katz,

1955).

Gatekeeper is people who screen media messages and pass on those messages

that help others share their views (Lazarsfield & Katz, 1955).

2.3 LITERATURE REVIEWSince Ansolabehere and his colleagues’ groundbreaking evidence of the

demobilizing effects of negative campaigns (Ansolabehere, Iyengar, Simon, &

Valentino, 1994), new research has begun to point in the opposite direction (Goldstein

& Freedman, 2002). Negativity in campaigns is increasingly thought to mobilize

rather than demobilize citizens.

Negative campaigns encourage discourage turnout: stimulation of republican

duty, anxiety toward the candidates, and perceptions of increased closeness of the

race.

The studies found that when respondents were shown a single negative

advertisement, they claimed that they would be less likely to vote and had worse

attitudes toward government. If people were shown a positive advertisement,

the effect was reversed. (Ansolabehere & Iyengar, 1995; Ansolabehere et al., 1994).

Studies consistently find that the more educated are more likely to vote (Nie,

Junn, & Stehlik-Barry, 1996; Verba, Schlozman, & Brady, 1995;Wolfinger &

Rosenstone, 1980).

51


Whereas experiments produce results showing demobilization, surveyresearch

suggests the opposite Using content analysis of all presidential television

advertisements since 1960, Finkel and Geer (1998) concluded that there is no

aggregate-level correlation between the tone of campaigns and turnout. Likewise,

using the National Election Studies (NES) cumulative study, these authors found no

influence of advertisement tone on self-reported vote.

Despite an accumulation of evidence, the reasons why negative campaigns

mobilize or demobilize the public are not well established. On the side of

demobilization, most authors make a case that citizens are repulsed by candidates

attacking one another.

According to Ansolabehere et al. (1994), “exposure to campaign attacks

makes voters disenchanted with the business of politics as usual”(p. 835). For those

proposing mobilization, most authors argue that campaign negativity stimulates

attention to and awareness of the campaign.

2.3.1 Demobilization

The problem with the demobilization argument is that it is a version of an

ostrich theory : negativity encourages citizens to stick their heads in the ground and

avoid politics.

The evidence supporting the view that citizens would act this way is

surprisingly weak. Robinson (1976), for example, originally made the argument that

media negativity encouraged what he called videomalaise (a sense of disengagement),

but the evidence presented in his study shows that when citizens were exposed to

negative information about politics and government, they did not shy away from

politics. Instead, they sought out opposition and third parties.

52


Several other studies offer indirect arguments—for example, media negativity

encourages distrust in government (Cappella & Jamieson, 1997; Miller, Goldenberg,

& Erbring, 1979).

2.3.2 Mobilization

On the side of the mobilization hypothesis, the preponderance of

psychological evidence concludes that negative information is arousing and attention

grabbing. People pay greater attention to negative information than to positive

information (Fiske, 1980; Kahneman & Tversky, 1984; Pratto & John, 1991).

And the process encouraging more attention to negative information appears

to be automatic—quick, effortless, subconscious—and induced by a perception of

threat, according to Pratto and John (1991).

When people are exposed to negative television images, they experience

greater arousal and demonstrate higher attention levels than when they are exposed to

comparable positive images1. Campaign negativity may be apt to stimulate the kind of

attention that could translate to 2mobilization. (Lang, Newhagen, & Reeves, 1996;

Reeves, Lang, Thorson, & Rothchild, 1989).

This paper explores three paths by which negative campaigns might motivate

citizens to vote. People may be motivated to participate because negative advertising

highlights threats in the social environment or threats from particular candidates, and

because it may indicate the closeness of a race.

2.3.3. H1: Stimulation of republican duty

2 One recent study argues against this view, pointing out that once arousal is controlled for, positive images are more memorable (Bolls, Lang, & Potter, 2001). Outside the laboratory, however, arousalis not controlled for, so we should expect negative messages to be more memorable.

53


It assumes that American citizens share some deep concern over the future of

their country and that this concern can be stimulated to encourage participation.

Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee (1954) argued something similar to this point,

suggesting that people did not vote because they were content with the status quo.

Drawing on the idea of republican civic duty, Martin (2000) found that when

people perceive more problems facing the country, they are more likely to participate

in politics.

The perception of problems also stimulates interest in the campaign and

beliefs about the importance of voting. As negative campaigns frequently center on

issues, it is likely that citizens pick up information about collective problems

inadvertently through negative ads more than they would from positive ads because of

the way that negative information is advantaged in attention, memory, and judgment.

Exposure to negative advertisement should encourage participation by

heightening perceptions of public problems, making an election appear of greater

importance, and thereby stimulating republican duty.

The result of this study found that exposure to negative advertisement

increases problem awareness. Negative ads appeared to increase public perceptions of

problems and, indirectly, the apparent stakes of the race2. People who watched similar

amounts of television in areas without campaign ads showed no increase in problem

awareness.

2.3.4 H2: Anxiety toward the candidates

This models of candidate threat that argue that campaigns may arouse anxiety

within the public, which in turn stimulates interest in campaigns (Marcus &

MacKuen, 1993; Marcus, Neuman, & MacKuen,2000).

54


The power of emotions such as anxiety to motivate participation should

not be underestimated. The impact on engagement from a person going from calm to

anxious is equivalent to or greater than the impact of going from a grade school

education to a college education (Marcus et al., 2000, p. 85).

One of the primary goals of negative campaigns is to paint opponents in the

worst possible light. These efforts may raise fears about the individual candidates,

especially for partisans.

This study is comparing how negative advertisement between Clinton and

Dole affect the candidates (US presidential election, Republican versus Democrat).

The results found that only Clinton’s negative ads produced any anxiety

among Democrats and independents, and then the ads influenced only feelings of fear

about Dole. Exposure to Dole’s negative ads did not influence the anxiety level of

independents and Republicans about Clinton.

2.3.5 H3: Perceptions of increased closeness of the race.

Rational actor models offer the suggestion that citizens participate in politics if

the utility of their participation outweighs the cost of their effort. And the marginal

utility of a vote is directly related to the closeness of a race. As a race becomes close,

the marginal utility of each vote increases. If potential voters believe that the contest

will be close, they will also believe that their vote will be of greater consequence

(Aldrich, 1993; Downs, 1957; Riker & Ordeshook, 1968).

Negative campaigns may signal to potential voters the relative closeness of an

upcoming race. Indeed, Kahn and Kenney (1999b) found that negative campaigns are

more likely in close races.

55


If candidates are running frequent and negative ads, then the race may appear

more competitive and citizens may infer that the race of election is tight.

The result of this analysis showing that exposure to negative advertisement

encourages perceptions that the race is closer. But it does so in a curious way.

Exposure to both Clinton’s and Dole’s negative ads made Republicans and

Republican leaners perceive the race to be closer. The effects are not mirrored on the

Democratic side.

One potential explanation for this finding is that Democrats were in general

less likely to think the race was close. Only 46% of Democrats believed the

presidential contest wasclose, versus 60% of Republicans. Exposure to negative

advertising may have encouraged Republicans’ wishful thinking about Dole’s

prospects.

***

Americans love to hate political campaigns. Majorities believe that “negative,

attack-oriented campaigning is undermining and damaging US democracy” (82%),

that unethical practices in campaigns occur “very” or “fairly” often (58%), and that

“in terms of ethics and values, election campaigns in this country have gotten worse

in the last 20 years” (53%).

There are two hypotheses. The first is derived from claims made by reformers

who assert that people want a campaign that is deliberative and substantive. The

second hypothesis, which is rooted in research on public opinion toward the political

process conducted by Hibbing and Theiss-Morse (2002), argues that people want a

campaign that actually requires less of them.

56


Respondents who are more educated and politically informed want more

substantive and deliberative campaigns, while those who have less schooling and

familiarity with the political process favor simple cues rather than deliberation.

2.3.6 Theory and Expectations.What does the public want from political campaigns, especially negative

television advertisements?. According to this view, citizens want more dialogue with

candidates in forums that promote direct contact with candidates and civilized

presentation of policy proposals.

That is, for substantive interaction among citizens and between citizens and

politicians that would ideally produce more informed citizen opinions and choices

(Ackerman & Fishkin, 2004).

In their book Stealth Democracy, Hibbing and Theiss-Morse (2002) argue that

citizens are dissatisfied with the government process as much as, if not more than,

policy outcomes, and that this “process gap” helps explain their low evaluations of

politicians and political institutions. People object to the process because they believe

elected officials do not have the best interests of the public at heart (p. 44).

2.3.7 Expectations: Public Attitudes Toward Campaigns

Hibbing and Theiss-Morse argue, citizens do not want to sort through

competing policy positions, and then they will not be eager to parse the criticisms that

candidates exchange on the campaign trail. Voters will oppose negative campaigning

because they do not want to take the time necessary to discern the “truth” about

candidates. Instead, they will prefer campaigns in which candidates present positive

information about themselves and refrain from criticizing their opponents.

Political “Involvement.” Other research shows that engagement with the

political process (measured in terms of education, interest in politics, and political

57


knowledge) fundamentally shapes how people process political information, form

attitudes, and act onthose attitudes (e.g., Zaller 1992).

Other scholars have found that the politically informed are more adept at

processing and using specific information about issues in their voting decisions (Delli

Carpini & Keeter, 1996; Neumann, 1986; Sniderman, Glaser, & Griffin, 1990).

Studies have found that age leads to a fixation of attitudes, which may increase

resistance to new styles of politics and new pieces of information (Brown, 1981;

Carlsson & Karlsson, 1970; Converse, 1969). Such findings suggest that 42 Keena

Lipsitz et al. older respondents may be more concerned with the state of modern

campaigns but less interested in watching debates and learning about candidate issue

positions.

2.3.8 Reactions to Candidate Criticism

It is common for reformers and citizens alike to complain about the

“negativity” of today’s campaigns. Hibbing and Theiss-Morse’s (2002) findings about

public aversion to political conflict are applicable to campaigns, we can expect people

to prefer that candidates avoid criticizing each other, however useful it might be,

because people find it too distasteful and difficult to disentangle what is scurrilous

from what is useful.

2.3.9 Variation in Attitudes Toward Campaigns

It hypothesizes that the politically involved will have different preferences

about the content, tone, and mode of campaign communication. In particular, they

will be more interested in campaign messages and forums that include issue

discussion. Other scholars have found that the politically informed are more adept at

processing and using specific information about issues in their voting decisions (Delli

Carpini & Keeter, 1996; Neumann, 1986; Sniderman, Glaser, & Griffin, 1990)

58


Political Involvement shows that engagement with the political process

(measured in terms of education, interest in politics, and political knowledge)

fundamentally shapes how people process political information, form attitudes, and

act on those attitudes ( Zaller 1992).

Political Ideology. Scholars believe that party identification is the primary lens

through which most citizens view political campaigns (Miller & Shanks, 1996).

Ethnicity and Citizenship. Studies have found that Latinos hold uniformly

more optimistic and trusting attitudes about government (Uhlaner & Garcia, 2002). If

this orientation is generalizable to other immigrant populations, Asian Americans may

hold similar views.

Age. Such findings suggest that older respondents may be more concerned

with the state of modern campaigns but less interested in watching debates and

learning about candidate issue positions; any new piece of information they might

learn is unlikely to outweigh a lifetime of accumulated political experience and

knowledge

Gender. Research has shown that women are more likely to oppose political

conflict and to prefer consensus building (Elshtain, 1982; Noelle-Neumann, 1993;

Tannen, 1994).

***

Negative campaigning had come to dominate American politics, it was

believed candidates who go on the attack usually see their ratings rise and have

greater support on Election Day than they would have gotten had they stayed positive.

The 1988 presidential campaign, when George H.W. Bush came from 10

points behind in the polls to a comfortable victory after the infamous Willie Horton,

59


Boston Harbor, and Dukakis ads began airing, has been offered as the poster child of

effective attack politics.

“Voters don’t pay much attention to campaign ads,” claims Bob Stern from

the Center for Government Studies in California, “but when they’re negative they

do. . . . That’s why negative ads are busting out all over— they can cut through the

flotsam of an election-year blitz; they tend to stick with us when less provocative ads

fade away; and they often provide voters with usable information about candidates

they know next to nothing about.” (May 2006).

Ugly, combative, negative advertising targeting a political opponent works.

You can see your opponent’s favorable polling numbers degrade while the negative

ad runs. (Richard Romero, former Democratic president pro tem of the New Mexico

State Senate; quoted by Quigley 2006).

If positive advertisements moved things to the extent that negative ads move

things, there would be more of them (Rep. Thomas Reynolds, chairman of the

National Republican Congressional Committee; quoted by Nagourney 2006).

Brooks (2006) conducted a systematic study of 186 newspaper and magazine

articles linking negative advertising and turnout from 2000 through 2005, and reports

that 65% of the articles concluded that negative campaigning depresses turnout, while

only 6% concluded that it might increase turnout.

The results of this study is the intermediate effects, is that negative ads and

campaigns are somewhat easier to remember than comparable positive ads and

campaigns.

Ten studies have examined the effects of negative campaigning on campaign

interest. Two of these (both conducted by Pinkleton) reported moderately large

60


increases in campaign interest, but four of the ten found effects in the opposite

direction. And the null hypothesis of the studies proved that none of the reported

studies found any significant effects.

Eleven of the fifteen pertinent studies reported positive effects—that is,

negative campaigns increased campaign knowledge— and the null hypothesis also

had proved that none of the 15 effects is significant.

Negative campaigns are designed, first and foremost, to diminish positive

affect for their target, the opposing candidate.

Although proponents of negative campaigning recognize that it may

simultaneously produce lower affect for the attacker (the so-called “backlash” effect:

see for example Roese and Sande 1993), they contend that the net effect, as reflected

in differential candidate affect, should work to the attacker’s advantage.

Lau et al. (1999) uncovered empirical support for the ideas that negative

campaigning does drive affect for the target of attacks down but also lessens affect for

the attacker.

The conclusion that negative campaigning is no more effective than positive

campaigning holds even though negative campaigns appear to be somewhat more

memorable and to generate somewhat greater campaign-relevant knowledge.

2.3.10 Do Negative Campaigns Harm the Political System?

Aside from any immediate impact that it may or may not have on the

candidates and electoral outcomes, negative campaigning could have consequences

for the political system itself.

61


By far the best example of this possibility is the demobilization hypothesis,

which holds that negative campaigning alienates many potential voters from politics

in general and from electoral politics in particular by Ansolabehere et al.’s (1994).

In this study, the expansion of the literature in recent years makes it possible

to locate the pertinent findings. The effects of negative political campaigning on

feelings of political efficacy (21 studies), trust in government (11 studies), and public

mood/satisfaction (10 studies), with positive effect sizes denoting favorable

consequences for the political system.

Thus, the conclusion to be drawn from the literature is clear: Negative

campaigning has the potential to do damage to the political system itself, as it tends to

reduce feelings of political efficacy, trust in government, and perhaps even

satisfaction with government itself.

***

There is very little work from a communication perspective exploring the

impact of campaign advertising (Cheng & riffe, 2008), as well as work relating to its

impact outside the U.S. context.

This study investigates the physiological and cognitive impacts of negative,

positive, and mixed campaign ads, in the context of the 2011 Canadian federal

election.

The objective is to explore the impact of the “tone” of campaign ads outside

the U.S., namely, over the course of the 2011 Canadian federal election campaign.

Impact is captured in an experimental lab setting using both cognitive and

physiological measures.

Physiological measures reveal the tendency for arousal and attentiveness to

increase for negative over positive ads.

62


Cognitive measures suggest the potential importance of audiovisual cues in

individuals’ processing of political advertising and point toward the possibility that

efforts to process information are higher and more conducive to message acceptance

when participants are exposed to ads reflecting participants’ own political affiliation.

There is now a considerable body of literature in political science on negative

advertising. Research focuses on the impact of negative ads, for instance, on political

participation (e.g., Ansolabehere & Iyengar, 1995; Kahn & Kenney, 2001; Nesbitt-

Larking, 2009), on voters’ cynicism (e.g., Dardis, Shen, & Edwards, 2008; Jin, An, &

Simon, 2009; Kaid, Postelnicu, Landreville,yun,&LeGrange, 2007), and on

persuasive processes, including attentiveness and memorization (e.g., bradley,

Angelini, & Lee, 2007; Cheng & riffe, 2008; Groenendyk & Valentino, 2002).

There remain significant debates within the literature regarding potential

effects of negative advertising on voters (see a review on this issue in Lau, Sigelman,

& rovner, 2007). For instance, some argue in favour of a positive impact on political

participation (Finket & Geer, 1998; Goldstein & Freedman, 2002; Marcus, Neuman,

& Mackuen, 2000; Pinkleton,1998), while others suggest that the use of negative ads

can trigger a “boomerang” effect that runs counter to the ad’s desired impact, notably

by enhancing political cynicism (Dardis, Shen, & Edwards, 2008) and ultimately

reducing voter turnout rates (Ansolabehere & Iyengar, 1995). overall, findings are

divided—Lau et al.’s two meta-analysis (Lau, Sigelman, Heldman, & babitt, 1999;

Lau, Sigelman, & rovner, 2007) find no regular relationship between negative

campaigns and turnout. Some scholars also highlight a “third-person effect,”

reflecting a tendency for some voters to project an influence of negative political ads

on others, but not on themselves (Cheng & riffe, 2008; Wei & Ven-Hwei, 2007).

Ads may provide information to voters as they weigh their voting options;

63


a. Ads may shift their view of the campaign;

b. Ads may also condition or frame the way in which voters interpret or seek

out information later in the campaign.

So while some research focuses on voting behaviour (e.g., Shaw, 1999),

another body of research focuses, typically within an experimental lab context, on the

short-term attitudinal, physiological, and cognitive responses to ads.

2.3.11 Measuring stimuli

The typical categorization of televised electoral ads is focused on the tone or

content of argumentation, essentially, the text of the ad. Argumentation is

unquestionably an important component of advertising.

Brader’s (2005, 2006) argument for the importance of “emotional cues” is

illustrative: “Political observers and practitioners share a strong belief that the audio-

visual nature of TV lends it special emotional power and much of this power in

political ads is borne by the imagery and music” (2006, p. 32); “Most systematic

studies of content and especially of effects pay little attention to emotion. Most of

these studies focus on the verbal content of ads rather than on the symbolic elements

most closely associated with emotional appeals, such as music and images” (2006, p.

42). It follows that, alongside the more traditional focus on the text of ads, it may be

important to capture emotional cues in ads (or in the various components of ads).

These cues can be used to evoke positive emotions (e.g., bright colors,

laughing, lively music), such as joy, and negative emotions (e.g., dark colors,

children’s cries, disturbing music), such as hate or fear.

2.3.12 Measuring Impact

This study focuses on a combination of physiological and cognitive measures.

Physiological effects

64


Impacts must be captured immediately and concurrently as respondents are

exposed to stimuli. Because emotions are short-term responses that often escape

awareness, their effect on attitudes occurs as information is perceived and processed,

making it difficult to discern their contribution once they have subsided (Brader,

2005).

For instances, an increase in heart rate, immediate changes in skin texture,

muscular activity, and contraction or dilation of the pupils.

Cognitive effects

Initially developed by Greenwald (1968) and then introduced in work on

advertising by Wright (1973), this approach supposes that the persuasive impact of an

ad is determined primarily by the scope and nature of the reflections that an individual

generates in response to a persuasive message (see also Eagly & Chaiken, 1993; Petty

& Cacioppo,1981).

Petty & Cacioppo’s (1981) Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM)

distinguishes between two routes of persuasion positioned along an elaboration of:

a) The peripheral route, where the individual uses the superficial attributes of

the ad (images, music, attractiveness of the source), which are often associated with

emotional cues, to accept or reject the message.

b) The central route, where an individual analyzes, with a higher mental

effort, the arguments presented (verbal and/or written content).

But the cognitive elaboration is not just as a result of the quantity of

individuals’ cognitions, but also on the quality of those thoughts. Moreover, unlike

Petty & Cacioppo (1981), this study argues that an individual can process all types of

information—whether central or peripheral—with varying degrees of cognitive

elaboration.

65


This analysis of the study based on cognitive responses on two categorization

systems:

1. Partially based on the original work of Wright (1973), accounts for

the type of cognition (e.g., corroboration, counterargument), as well

as for the strength of the cognitive elaboration, positioned along

between a weak and a strong mental effort.

2. The second system takes into account references to emotional cues

(music, visual effects, colors) and to verbal and/or written

arguments.

In addition, experimental work suggests that participants choose to read

negative rather than positive election stories (Meffert, Chung, Joiner, Waks, & Garst,

2006).

There may well be a link between the tone of media and the human brain.

Evolution may have produced humans with a tendency to focus primarily on negative

information (see Ju, 2008; Shoemaker, 1996; Soroka & McAdams, 2012).

Hypotheses 1:

Where televised election ads are concerned, the subjects will be more attentive

and activated on a physiological level when exposed to negative electoral ads,

compared with positive or mixed ads

Hypotheses 2:

That alongside changes in physiological activation, the subjects will show an

increase in unfavorable responses aimed at negative political ads as opposed to

positive or mixed-message ads.

The Results

Physiological effects

66


The finding study method is using ANCOVA (Analyses Of Covariances) of

both SCL and heart rate to the respondents. The physiological measure is modeled as

a function of the following:

1. Respondent identity, to account for level differences in

physiological symptoms across respondents.

2. An ordinal variable representing order of presentation of the stories,

to capture the possibility that respondents’ reactions change based

on the number of stories they have seen thus far.

3. Time (in 5-second intervals) and time squared, to capture the

(potentially non-linear) tendency for both SCL and heart rate to

decline slightly over the course of the experiment.

4. A categorical variable capturing ad tone (negative, mixed, positive),

included directly and in interaction with the time variables. The

direct effect captures the possibility that certain tones of ads

produce an initial impact that is greater or lesser in magnitude than

others; the interaction with time allows for the possibility that the

effect of negative ads is more long lasting.

First hypothesis (H1) states that respondents will be more attentive and

activated on a physiological level when exposed to negative electoral ads, compared

with positive or mixed ads. Based on ANCOVA results and SCL.results confirm the

expectation that the tone of ads is related to levels of skin conductance. There are

signs of a relationship regarding both the direct effect of tone and the impact of tone

overtime

Cognitive effects

67


Second hypothesis states that participants will show an increase in unfavorable

responses aimed at negative political ads as opposed to positive or mixed message ads

(H2).

The results is negative ads generated more emotional and attention responses

than positive ads, the results on cognitive impacts show a greater resistance to

persuasion, as evidenced by the increased number of counterarguments.

Therefore, the physiological activation associated with negative ad content

(negative bias) does not necessarily lead to greater persuasion.

***

There are six types of campaign effects:

1) The civic engagement effect that argues people will learn and become more

political engaged due to the campaign.

2) The priming studies argue that campaigns affect what issues the voters

evaluate the parties and leaders on and sequentially their vote.

3) The minimal effect models argue that campaigns only mobilize existing

prepositions and voters only seek to confirm their intermediated vote choice.

4) The memory-based models argue that the vote choice is based on sampling of

the available information filtered through the voters’ predisposition and in the

light of their political awareness and sophistication.

5) Online-based models argue that voters continuously incorporate the political

discourses in their vote choice and then soon forget these discourses.

6) The shortcut-based models highlight the various shortcuts to political choice

(e.g.basic likes and dislikes).

Norris (2000), echoed by many, has suggested that political parties today are

in a situation of permanent campaigning. That is, as the media are becoming more

fragmented and competitive and voters increasingly are becoming less tied to one

68


particular party with increased number of party switchers as a consequence, parties

have become more professional.

Campaign spending has increased dramatically over the recent elections,

Denmark spent well above DDK 100 million DKK (about 13.5 million euros) in the

last election in Denmark (Hansen & Pedersen 2008).

In Denmark it is possible for the prime minister to call a national election at

any time he decides, within a period of four years. For practical concerns this is

usually done three weeks before the election3. Usually the main parties and candidates

are known well in advance of this date4.

3

Surveying the voters on issue saliency, monitoring the media and the parties

campaign activities is usually the operationalization of the campaign.

(e.g. Sciarini & Kriesi 2003)

In the 2007 campaign 43 percent of the voters decided what party to support

during the campaign whereas this number was only 14 in 1971. Compared to the other

Nordic countries 5 of 21, Denmark is an outliner as Norway had 56, Sweden had 58,

Finland 51 and Iceland had XX percent that decided during the campaign at the last

general election.

But campaigns might cause effects on civic engagement. Generally speaking

the voters' own confidence in being able to debate politics and their feeling of

political responsiveness increases during the campaign whereas the trust in the

political leaders decreases during the campaign.

2.3.13 The effect of election campaigns

3 However the 1966, 1990, 1998 and 2001 elections were called only 20 days before the elections.4According to the election law the deadline for parties are 15 days and the deadline for candidates are 10 days

before the Election Day.

69


1. Civic engagement

Effects of civic engagement come as increases in political interest, awareness,

knowledge and the likelihood to vote. Freedman et al. (2004) find that exposure to the

campaign increase all of the above and in this sense the campaign is important, as it

brings voters closer to a normative ideal of an informed and political engaged public.

Craig et al. (2005) find that voters increase, their knowledge of the candidate's

positions during the campaign, but also the gap between the most knowledgeable and

less knowledgably tend to increase during the campaign.

Hypothesis: “Political efficacy increases during the campaign”.

Over the campaign the voters will increase their efficacy and political

knowledge, but due to selective attention we will also expect voters to learn the most

about parties and candidates they have sympathies for.

2. Priming

Several studies have shown how the agenda of the campaign affects the voters'

issue saliency (Iyengar & Simon 1993; Togeby 2007).

De Vreese (2004) shows how the issues of a referendum campaign causes

voters to evaluate the leading politicians' performance on the issue of the campaign.

Johnston et al. (1992) show how the issue of free trade increased its saliency

during the campaign and how the votes' evaluation of the candidates on free trade had

a strong impact on their vote choice.

The priming hypothesis: The agenda during camping (combined party and media)

affects the issue saliency of the voter. The parties which according to the voters

perform best on the salient issues will experience an increase in the number of vote,

as well as an increased party sympathy during the campaign and vice versa.

70


The voters’ stand on the issue, its importance and how the voters think the

parties perform on the issue is included. Traditional items of party choice, party and

party leader sympathy are also included.

3. Minimal effect

Campaigns only reinforce an initial choice by mobilizing the predisposition

and the strong party identification. As predisposition and party identification were

quite stable factors so was the vote choice regardless of the campaign. In this sense

the campaign only reassured the voters of their choice by activating a stable set of

dimension, in the vote choice (Berelson et al. 1954; Campbell et al. 1960; Lazarsfeld

et al. 1944).

E.g. liberals tend to focus on the liberal news channels (exposure) and they

primarily tend to process and remember liberal frames (perception) of the issues,

which ultimately only reinforce and do not challenge the liberals vote choice

(Festinger 1957; Hansen 2004; Iyengar 1990; Kinder & Sears 1985).

The minimal effect hypotheses: The political campaign reinforces initial party

choice by mobilizing predisposition, party identification and this mechanism is

reinforced by the voters' selective attention and perception of politics.

During the campaign we will see an increased correlation between

predisposition, party identification and party choice. The variables are predisposition

(materialism – post materialism), party ID and party choice, party and party leader

sympathy are also included.

4. Memory based models

Vote choice is based on sampling of the available information filtered through the

voters’ predisposition in light of their political awareness and sophistication (Price &

Zaller 1993; Zaller 1992).

71


That is, when the voter is exposed (which is a function of political awareness)

to the message she will try to recollect how this message fits her predisposition and

then provide an evaluation of the party or candidate.

The fourth hypothesis, the memory based model: The political campaign

affects the voters as a function of their predisposition, political awareness and

political knowledge.

Specifically the stronger the predisposition and political knowledge are and

the lower the political awareness are, the less likely it is that we see any effect of the

campaign.

5. Online based models

Campaign messages are processed as soon as they are encountered and then

forgotten. Whereas the voters forget remarkable quickly the campaign messages the

voters' overall evaluations of the candidate are very stabile (Lodge et al. 1989; Lodge

et al. 1995).

Recent experimental research supports the strength of the online-based model

as on-line processing create stronger and more clear cut opinions than memory based

models (Bizer et al. 2006).

Matthes et al. (2007) try to differentiate between on-line processing and

memory-based models simply by asking the respondents how they think when they

give an answer in the poll. They find that voters with primary on-line judgment

provide more polarized opinions, provide faster answers, and have stronger opinion

confidence than voters with memory-based judgment.

72


The fifth hypothesis, the online based model: The voters’ memories of the

campaign messages fade out quickly, but as the messages are processed continuously

their effect can be measured on the voters’ political preferences.

Variables are general knowledge and campaign message knowledge and party

vote, party sympathy and party leader sympathy is included as the basic dependent

variables.

6. Shortcut based models

The shortcuts are often conceptualized as political heuristic such as the

candidate's party affiliation or ideology. The voters then rely on stereotypical

understanding, of parties and candidates and are not learning what each candidate or

party specifically propose during the campaign.

E.g. politicians’ charisma, trust, and credibility or simple affective likes and

dislikes (Popkin 1991; Sniderman et al. 1991).

The voter could also rely on the various opinion polls as basic information in

their vote choice or simply the candidates' appearance (Lau & Redlawsk 2001).

The sixth hypothesis of the project, the shortcut model: Votes rely much on political

heuristic when making political choice.

Personal characteristic of the party leader explain more in the political

preference than current party politics. Stereotypical classification of parties according

to ideology explains more of the political preference then current party politics.

***

73


In the United States during election cycles, the use of social media by

presidential candidates has become a way for many voters to find out about

candidates.

This study examines whether campaigns that are more “social media savvy”

will ultimately garner more votes, specifically from those aged 18-24. By analyzing

social media tactics of the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections and surveying voters

within this age range.

On February 10, 2007 a relatively unknown junior Senator from Illinois

announced his candidacy for president. Almost 20 months later, that unknown senator

was elected President of the United States. Barack Obama's presidential campaign

was unorthodox (Simba 2009).

As Simba (2009) noted, Obama's campaign success had frequently been

credited to his public speaking and ability to inspire. However, his use of the Internet

and social media to engage new voters provided Obama with a level of support that

most candidates never see.

Although Barack Obama's campaign marked the most successful use of new

and social media by a presidential candidate, it certainly did not mark the first.

Howard Dean's 2004 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination offered the

country a glimpse into what Internet campaigning was capable of producing.

Murray (2005) stated that Howard Dean's rise to fame was centered on his use

of new and social media. Much like Barack Obama after him, Dean was unknown

prior to announcing his candidacy.

By disseminating his message through new and social media, Dean was able

to mobilize a new group of supporters. These supporters thrived on the ease that the

74


Internet provided in making a donation, getting information, or coordinating an event

(Murray 2005).

The Pew Research Center's Internet and American Life Project found that 95%

of 18-29 year-olds use the Internet, and 78% of all American adults use the Internet

on a daily basis.

The results of this study did find that participants rely heavily on social media

in order to gain information on political candidates. However, the vast majority of

respondents utilized Facebook much more than other types of social media. 46.4% of

respondents utilized Facebook to obtain information on political candidates 7 days per

week, while only 9% utilize Twitter and only 4% utilize blogs at the same rate.

According to the results from an ANOVA statistical analysis, there was no

relationship between social media usage and voter participation. As the result first

hypothesis (H1), that the presence of social media usage would positively effect voter

participation, was not supported.

The second hypothesis (H2), that the presence of social media would

positively effect likelihood of voting for a candidate, was also not supported in the

way this study originally predicted.

In terms of participation, the fact that the manipulation of social media use had

no significant effect on participation could be attributed to the high level of

importance that society places on voting. As Ruggerio (2010) points out, social

pressure has proved to be one of the most effective get out the vote tactics. Similarly,

Gerber and Rogers (2009 pg.187) found that “a citizen's intention to vote in a given

election is directly affected by her perception of whether others are going to vote in

the election.”

75


For participants who received a Democratic candidate brochure, the presence

or absence of social media had no significant impact on whether or not they chose to

vote for the candidate.

For Republican candidates, the presence of social media actually had a

negative effect on their candidate evaluation.

According to the Pew Research Center's Internet and American Life Project

(2009 pg. 22) “some 55% of all adults, and 74% of all internet users, said they went

online for news and information about the election or to communicate with others

about the race.”

In addition, Pew (2009) also found that 52% of American's who use a social

networking site utilize it for political purposes. During this election, Democratic

voters utilized social media more than Republicans (Pew 2009). As a result, it can be

said that Democratic voters, and especially young Democratic voters, were simply

initiated in to the culture of social media campaigning before Republican voters.

2.4 RESEARCH FRAMEWORK.Figure 2.4. Causal model research framework (King and Williams,1995)

Source: http://www.ninds.nih.gov/about_ninds/plans/NINDS_health_disparities_report.htm

Black campaign Social media

Influences

Information perceived

Voting Intentions

Effectiveness

76

http://www.ninds.nih.gov/about_ninds/plans/NINDS_health_disparities_report.htm


This study is using a causal model that identified a black campaign itself

through social media as the medium. And from it, this research would look at the

impact from the perspective of influences, information perceived or the perception of

the voters, and the effectiveness.

The influences of black campaign in Indonesia’s last turnout were happened

while there are freedoms of speech, media freedom, and the involvement of political

parties in the campaign.

And the factors that contributed mostly to the perception of the voters about

how the campaign goes were the propaganda of the media, voters thought process and

the advertising effects.

While the effectiveness of this study were formed by the internet as the

emerging media for the election, and black campaign itself could be said as a new

method of political campaigning, to be a next level of negative campaign, and how the

voters accept the information.

And from those aspects, the outcome is the voting intentions. It is when the

voters have made up their minds about what would they choose in the election.

77


|Chapter Three|

3.1. INTRODUCTION In chapter 2, we were discussed literature; it includes the theories, explanation,

and causal connection with the study and also gives some examples of case studies

In this chapter, there would be brief descriptions of type of research, purpose

of research, research method, sample population, sample frame, sample size

estimation, sampling method, dependent and independent variables, instrument,

validity and reliability test; data collection and data analysis.

3.2. TYPE OF RESEARCHFundamentally, the type of the research about “ an impact of a black campaign

in social media towards Indonesia’s presidential election 2014: measuring successful

of campaign strategy in politics” is quantitative research.

Snap Surveys (2015) explains about the objective of quantitative research:

To quantify data and generalize results from a sample to the population of

interest

To measure the incidence of various views and opinions in a chosen sample

Sometimes followed by qualitative research which is used to explore some

findings further

Meanwhile, They also added some information of qualitative research:

To gain an understanding of underlying reasons and motivations

To provide insights into the setting of a problem, generating ideas and/or

hypotheses for later quantitative research

To uncover prevalent trends in thought and opinion

78


Primary and secondary data of this research are common as some of the past

research studies. The primary data will become out from the survey, or

questionnaires. This survey will be gathered out from the respondents through an

online survey.

Secondary data of this study comes from many sources. This research uses

studies journal about politics and campaigning as well as the social media use within

the age range. And some case studies about the sample topics “black campaign”. And

some articles from newspapers and also theories that been conducted in the past

research will be use to support this study.

3.3. PURPOSE OF RESEARCHThere are three domains of purposes of this research. Firstly is the influence of

black campaign in presidential election towards the voters. These black and

negativity campaign occurred in the last Indonesian presidential election 2014. And

these things made the turnout paralyzed because of this propaganda over social media.

Secondly, to identify on how voters perceived with this kind of advertisement.

Thirdly, is to evaluate the effectiveness of the black campaign and negative campaign

and positive campaign over social media in Indonesia.

3.4. RESEARCH METHODThis study will use online survey through survey monkey in questionnaires

that will be spread over the Internet. The respondent will receive the questionnaires

via Internet and answer the questions straight away.

79


And to test the reliability and validity of the questionnaires and some variables

that related to generation X & Y, this research will utilize Social Package for Social

Science (SPSS).

3.5. SAMPLE POPULATIONThe sample population is generation X and generation Y. As it was explained

in the chapter 1, the generation X respondents are the accumulation of group age

range between 26-54 years old). Meanwhile, the generation Y is the accumulation

group of individual with the age range between 13-25 years old.

According to aseanup.com in 2014, generation Y in Indonesia is covered 17.1

% of total population in Indonesia as equal as 22.067.716 people for male and

21.291.548 for female (If both combined, it will be around 43.3 millions of people).

Then Generation X, the population in Indonesia covered up about 42.3 %, and

it consist of 54.500.650 male populations and 52.723.359 of female population (If

both combined would be around 105 millions of people). Therefore, the sample

population of this study is around 148 millions.

3.6. SAMPLE FRAMEThe sample frame for this study is Indonesian who eligible to vote for the

election, or had participated in previous election. They have accessed Internet daily.

Range age of the respondents are generation X and Y.

3.7. SAMPLE SIZE ESTIMATION

The sample size estimation of this study is based on sample size estimation

rule of thumb of multivariate analysis. It is said that 200 respondents is fair.

80


A good general rule of thumb for factor analysis is 300 cases (Tabachnick &

Fidell, 1996) or the more lenient 50 participants per factor (Pedhazur & Schmelkin,

1991). Comrey and Lee (1992) (see Tabachnick & Fidell, 1996) give the following

guide samples sizes: 50 as very poor; 100 as poor, 200 as fair, 300 as good, 500 as

very good and 1000 as excellent.

3.8.SAMPLING METHOD The respondents will be gathered through online survey “survey monkey”.

The questionnaires will be spread through paste the URL of the online survey through

many social media, such as Facebook, Path, and Twitter.

The basic assumptions of quantitative sampling are to generalize the

population, and then random events are predictable. Also, it is comparable to random

events to the result, and therefore probability sampling is the best approach for this

study.

3.9 DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT

VARIABLEThere is one dependent variable of this study. It is voting intention. And three

independent variables, they are the influences, the perceived of information from the

voters, and the black campaign effectiveness in the election.

3.10 INSTRUMENTThe instrument of this study will be questionnaires that would be attached in

the appendix. It consists of 4 sections, section A is about the respondents’ personal

data, section B is about political behavior of the respondents. Section C is about

respondents’ use of media and in regards to political candidates. Section D is more in-

81


depth of black campaign; to measure the influence, information perceived and

effectiveness of that kind of ads through social media.

This questionnaires actually adapted and modified from the past research

titled:

1. Use of Social Media in Presidential Campaigns: Do Social Media Have an Effect

on the Political Behavior of Voters Aged 18-24? by Samantha Hamiltion (2011).

2. The Effect of Social Media on Individual Voters in India by Neha Malik (2014).

3.11. VALIDITY AND RELIABILITY

3.11.1 Validity Test

Test the validity of the questionnaire was conducted using Cronbach’s alpha

using SPSS. The validity test done by correlating each item questionnaire scores with

the totally score. Item-item questionnaire that significantly correlated with total score

indicates that the items are valid.

There are five alternative answers to the Liker Scale. The questionnaires were

given to 25 respondents with a number of questions of 10 items. Data were obtained

as follows (SPSS, 2015).

Table 3.1 Cronbach’s case processing summary.

Case Processing Summary

N %

Cases

Valid 17 68.0

Excludeda 8 32.0

Total 25 100.0

a. Listwise deletion based on all variables in the procedure.

82


Table 3.3 shows the validity of the questionnaires, the number cases of 25

with the percentages of 68%. While the case excluded number is 8 with percentages

of 32.0 %. Totally the cases processed number of 25 with percentages of 100 %.

3.11.2 Reliability Test result

Table 3.2 Cronbach’s alpha.

Reliability Statistics

Cronbach's Alpha

Cronbach's Alpha Based on

Standardized Items

N of Items

.805 .776 22

Based on table 3.3, it shows that Cronbach’s alpha is 0.805 while Cronbach’s

alpha based on standardized items is 0.776. Number of items is 22. Based on these values,

they are all acceptable.

3.12. DATA COLLECTION The data collection of this research will be sourced from surveymonkey.com,

an online website that provide online survey. The sample will be random respondents,

an Indonesian citizen, and they eligible to vote in the last turnout, and have insight

into the trend of the black campaign that occurred during campaigning period in 2014.

Therefore the questionnaires will be gathered, from 200 respondents, then to

get insight in the form of statistics, percentages, graphs and charts, as well as the

numeric statistic include of mean, median and standard deviation, to support this

study research requirements.

83


The questionnaires itself will be spread online starts on 2nd to 10th of May, in

order to get around 200 respondents randomly over the internet. Then the collected

data as the finding result will be show in the next chapter, includes its discussion and

its explanation.

3.13. DATA ANALYSIS The analysis of data will consist of the brief and in-depth explanation of each

question provided in the questionnaires. Then it will analysis further in purpose to get

the numerical data such as maximum and minimum, median, mean, the standard

deviation of respondents in every question. In addition, the statistics in a form of

graphs, percentages and more variables in each question will be provided.

84


|Chapter Four|

4.1 INTRODUCTIONThis chapter describes on the processed of raw data that were collected from

all distributed questionnaires through survey monkey and SPSS and will be presented

in three formats – charts, respondent responses/ frequency, and basic statistic analysis

such as minimum and maximum, mean, median and standard deviation. This chapter

also presents the data in a more structured manner such as the presentation of the

tables and some explanation.

In addition, the use of SPSS software is to measure the generation X and Y

towards specifics variables, especially perception. This use of software is in order to

fulfill the research objectives, that

4.2 RESPONDENT BACKGROUNDBasically, the respondent of this study is Indonesian citizen who at least have

experienced or eligible to participate in the turnout.

Chart 4.2.1 Response Summary from survey monkey.

Source: Survey monkey

85


And random sampling was used to spread the questionnaires with survey

monkey and then the distribution of online survey were through social media, such as

Facebook, twitter, path, blogs and etc.

As it shows in the chart 4.2.1, the distribution of the questionnaires was started

from 2nd of May 2015 to 10th May 2015, and it gathered total 214 responses from

respondents.

In details, on Saturday (5/2/2015) it gathered 47 responses, on Sunday and

Monday 11 and 16 respondents were collected; while on Tuesday and Wednesday the

responses were 33 and 14; on Thursday the responses were 27 and Friday was the

highest responses with 61 responses.

4.3 RESEARCH FINDINGThere are some charts and tables to be explaining in this chapter from 17

questions.

Chart 4.3.1 Respondents’ gender.

86


From 214 respondents, 213 people were answered question number one, only

one skipped the question. With some details that 134 of them were male as equivalent

to 62.91 % and female who responded with 79 (37.09%).

Chart 4.3.2 Age of respondents.

When the respondents were asked about their age, this research found that

generation X is slightly more dominant than generation Y. The percentages show that

generation X is covered around 52.11 %, meanwhile generation Y is 47.42 %, while

veterans only reached to 0.47%. Overally, the respondents who answered this

question were 213, only one who skipped to answer this question.

Chart 4.3.3 Education level.

87


Majority of respondents’ background education were university graduate with

percentage to 77.10 %. It was then followed by who’s graduated from high school

with 16.36 %. And lastly was master degree with percentage around 6.54 %.

Chart 4.3.4 Occupation of respondents.

According to chart 4.3.4, private company employee led the percentage with

45.50 %, and then second position was entrepreneur with 28.44 % and the third

position was student with 17.54 %. People who answered this question were 211 and

there were 3 people who did not answer the question.

Table 4.3.1 Occupation respondents’ frequency and basic statistic.

The frequency of private company employee was 96, and then followed by

entrepreneur by 60 and high school student by 37. The statistic based on table 4.3.1,

88


minimum and maximum 1.00 and 6.00. While median and mean reached 3.00 and

2.91. Lastly, standard deviation value was 1.07.

Chart 4.3.5 Respondents location

Based on chart 4.3.5, majority respondents were located in Jabodetabek, it is

combined cities consist of Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, and Bekasi, with

percentages of respondents reached to 76.21% (157 responses).

The second highest were come from Makassar had percentages of 2.91% (6

responses, while the third highest were Bandung with 3.88 % (8 responses); fourth

position were come from Denpasar and Bali shared similar result with 2.43 % (5

responses); fifth position were from Balikpapan and Palembang with 1.94% (4

responses); then Semarang, Pekanbaru and Surabaya also exposed similar result with

1.46% (3 responses). Lastly, a combined cities like Kupang, Aceh, and Yogyakarta

with 0.97% (2 responses).

89


Chart 4.3.6 Respondents participation in the turnout.

When respondents were asked about their participation in the last turnout,

people who were participated to vote was 160 people (81.63 %), and people who did

not participate were 36 people (18.37%). Respondents who answered this question

were 196, while 18 respondents skipped not to answer.

Chart 4.3.7 Respondents’ involvement in the campaign process.

90


Chart 4.3.6 shows that 51.01% (101 responses) Respondents had a choice to

be neutral in their involvement in the campaign in the last turnout, meanwhile 23.74%

(47 responses) responded actively. Meanwhile, the respondents who are very active

reached 7.07% (14 responses). However, the respondents who were decided inactive

in political involvement were 9.60% (19 responses), and very sluggish with 8.59%

(17 responses).

Table 4.3.2 Respondents’ involvement in the campaign process, with frequency and

basic statistics.

And the statistics shows that, the value of minimum and maximum reached to 1.00

and 5.00; while median and mean were 3.00 and 3.11 and standard deviation was

0.97.

Chart 4.3.8 Respondents’ coalition preferences.

91


In the last election, voters were divided into two sides, Koalisi Merah Mutih

(Coalition of red and white) and Koalisi Indonesia Hebat (Coalition of great

Indonesia).

Chart 4.3.7 is showing that 54.74% (104 responses) of respondents were into

Koalisi Indonesia Hebat, compare to Koalisi Merah Putih with 45.26% (86

responses). Respondents who answered this question were about 190 respondents

while 24 respondents skipped.

Chart 4.3.9 Media preferences.

Chart 4.3.8 is showing the media preferences about political candidates. Print

media is the least choice for voters with the percentages about 31.23 % (57

responses), means mostly the citizens find out the candidates’ campaign from print

media one day per week. This study based on the table also found that 18.68% (34

responses) read newspaper three days/week while 12.09% (22 responses) of

respondents read the paper only two days/week. Than 11.54% (21 responses) of

respondents read it five days a week. 9.34% (17 responses) and 3.85% (2 responses)

92


read it 4 and six days a week. While people who utilize it a full week were only 13.19

% (24 responses).

Meanwhile, the broadcast media hold 26.52% (48 responses), means the

voters seek the campaign from it seven days per week. While 16.02% (29

respondents) utilized broadcast media one day/week; 17.68% (32 responses) seek it

from televised media three days a week. The other 13.81% (25 responses) and 10.50%

(19 responses) utilized it four days and two days a week. And the other responses

used broadcasted media by 8.84% (16 responses) and 6.63% (12 responses) as equal

to five days and six days a week.

And lastly is the most popular choice nowadays, new media that vigorously

being used as people source to see the campaign by hold the percentages about 49.73

% (93 responses) or seven days per week. And respondents who use new media six

days a week is 6.95% (13 responses); while 12.30% (23 responses) use new media by

5 days a week and 8.56% (16 responses) of respondents use it 4 days a week.

Furthermore, 9.63% (18 responses) use it three days a week, 2.14% (4 responses) of

them use it two days a week. While the people who use it a day per week reached

10.70% (20 responses).

Table 4.3.3 Media preference’s frequency

The frequency of printed media was 182, while broadcast media was 181 and

new media 187. The weighted average of print media was 3.22; broadcast media was

4.15 and new media was 5.29.

93


Table 4.3.4 Media preferences’ basic statistics

Table 4.3.4 shows that, specifically, the minimum, maximum, median, mean

and standard deviation for each media preferences; printed media had value of 1,00;

7.00; 3.00; 3.2 and 2.08. Next, broadcast media had value of 1.00; 7.00; 4.00 and 4.15

and 2.18. And lastly, new media had value of 1.00; 7.00; 6.00; 5.29 and 2.0.

Chart 4.3.10 The use of media in regards to political candidates.

94


95


In chart 4.3.9 and table 4.3.11 and 4.3.12, there are 11 parameters of the use of

media in regards to political candidates included the frequency and statistical data.

The respondents who answered these questions were 194 people when the other of 20

skipped to answer it.

Firstly, when respondents asked about, whether they listen to news stories

about political candidates before voting. Mostly, the respondents agree by the

percentages of 56.45 % (105 responses). Meanwhile, the respondents who choose to

be neutral were 19.9 % (37 responses). And people who strongly agreed were 19.35

% (36 responses). A total response to this question was about 186 responses with the 96


weighted average around 3.90. The statistic shows that the minimum and maximum

were 1.00 and 5.00; median and mean were 4.00 and 3.90 and standard deviation

value was 0.76.

Secondly, when respondents were asked about if a political candidate does not

have a web page, they would be less likely to vote for him/her. The highest respond

was neutral with percentages about 35.33 % (65 responses), meanwhile people who

disagreed was 28.26 % (52 responses) and individuals who agreed was 22.83 % (42

responses). Total responses to this question were about 184, and the weighted average

was 2.89. The statistic shows that the minimum and maximum were 1.00 and 5.00;

median and mean were 3.00 and 2.89 and standard deviation value was 1.02.

Thirdly, when researching political candidates on the Internet. Availability of

information on their beliefs is important to respondents. The respondents responded

agreed with 47.28 % (87 responses), neutral 26.09% (48 responses), and strongly

agree was 16.30% (30 responses). The total response for this question was 184 with

weighted average 3.65. The statistic shows that the minimum and maximum were

1.00 and 5.00; median and mean were 4.00 and 3.65 and standard deviation value was

0.97.

Fourth, whether they asked if the Internet is a reliable source of information

on political candidates. The percentages show that 40.32 % (75 responses) were

neutral, and 31.72 % (59 responses) were agreed. On the other hand, only 12.37 % (23

responses) disagreed with the question. A total response was 186 with weighted

average to 3.25. The statistic shows that the minimum and maximum were 1,00 and

5,00; median and mean were 3.00 and 3.25 and standard deviation value was 1,00.

Fifth, whether the respondents asked if the information presented on cable

news about political candidates is right. The respondents reacted neutrally with a

percentage of 45.36 % (83 responses), and people who disagreed 26.23 % (48

97


responses). Total responses were 183 with weighted average about 2.87. The statistic

shows that the minimum and maximum were 1.00 and 5.00; median and mean were

3,00 and 2,88 and standard deviation value was 0,94.

Sixth, if political candidates do not use Facebook. The respondents will be less

likely to vote for him/her. The respondents disagreed with percentages of 35.14 % (65

responses); neutral with 32.43 % (60 responses) and agreed with only 11.89 % (22

responses). Total responses were 185 with weighted average 2.44. The statistic shows

that the minimum and maximum were 1.00 and 5.00; median and mean were 2.00 and

2.45 and standard deviation value was 0.99.

Table 4.3.5 The frequency use of media in regards to political candidates.

Seventh, when the respondents asked if they enjoy researching political

candidates on the Internet; 43.48 % (80 responses) of respondents agree, while 29.89

(55 replies) of respondents were neutral. Total responses to this question were 184

with the weighted average of 3.57. The statistic shows that the minimum and

maximum were 1.00 and 5.00; median and mean were 4.00 and 3.56 and standard

deviation value was 0.97.

98


Eighth, whether the respondents follow political candidates on Twitter;

32.79% (60 responses) Respondents reacted neutrally while 26.23 % (48 responses)

disagree and 19.67 % (36 responses) agree. Total responses of this question were 183

and a weighted average of 2.75. The statistic shows that the minimum and maximum

were 1.00 and 5.00; median and mean were 3.00 and 2.88 and standard deviation

value was 0.94.

Ninth, whether the respondents asked if they look at political candidates’ web

pages; 40 % (74 responses) responded neutral and 33.51% (62 responses). Total

responses to this question were 185 with the weighted average of 3.17. The statistic

shows that the minimum and maximum were 1.00 and 5.00; median and mean were

3.00 and 3.18 and standard deviation value was 0.98.

Tenth, the respondents were asked if political candidates should use social

media as their campaign vehicle; 42.16 % (78 responses) reacted neutrally; while

25.41% (47 responses) agree. The total response for this question was 186 with

weighted average 2.96 The statistic shows that the minimum and maximum were 1.00

and 5.00; median and mean were 3.00 and 2.96 and standard deviation value was

1.00.

Eleventh, whether the respondents asked if they would follow candidates

from different political parties, 46.20 % (85 responses) were neutral and 23.37 % (23

responses) agree. The total response to this question was 184 with the weighted

average of 2.99. The statistic shows that the minimum and maximum were 1.00 and

5.00; median and mean were 3.00 and 2.99 and standard deviation value was 0.96.

Table 4.3.6 The statistic use of media in regards to political candidates.

99


100


Chart 4.3.11 The influences of respondents.

There is a chart and two tables to explain. Chart 4.3.10, and Table 4.3.13 and

4.3.14 will identify the influences of a black campaign in democracy in Indonesia.

Table 4.3.10 will show you the charts of the questions, table 4.3.13 is to measure the

frequency of each item and, table 4.3.14 is to find out the basic statistics data. There

101


are four parameters of how this kind of campaign influences the turnout. The

respondents were answered with 187 responses while 27 skipped answering.

Firstly, when the respondents asked about people are being misguided with

the campaign. Mostly the respondents agree with the statement with the percentage of

47.80 % (87 responses), and respondents who neutral was 34.73 % (45 responses).

Total responses were 182, with weighted average 3.67.

The statistic showed that for question number 1, the minimum and

maximum reached 1.00 and 5.00; median and mean was value to 4.00 and 3.67. And

the standard deviation was 1.01.

Secondly, the advertisement gives positive political influences to the voters.

The respondents reacted disagree with 33.33% (61 responses); 25.00% (45 responses)

of respondents agree and 21.11 % (40 responses) were neutral. Total responses were

184 with weighted average 2.71.

The statistic showed the minimum and maximum reached 1,00 and 5,00;

median and mean was value to 3,00 and 2,71. And the standard deviation was 1,14.

Thirdly, the advertisement affecting the voters’ decision; 51.67 % (95

responses) of respondents agree with the statement, and 22.79 % (42 responses) of

them were neutral. It contrasted while compared to the people who disagree only 7.78

% (14 responses). Total responses were 184 with weighted average 3,63.

The statistic showed that for question number 1, the minimum and maximum

reached 1.00 and 5.00; median and mean was value to 4,00 and 3.63. And the

standard deviation was 0.96. Total responses were

102


Fourth, this campaign is active to beat up your opponent. People agreed

with the statement with percentage of 30,56 % (57 responses), neutral with 26,11 %

(48 responses), and disagree with 23,33 % (42 responses).

The statistic showed that for question number 1, the minimum and maximum

reached 1,00 and 5,00; median and mean value to 3,00 and 3,15. And the standard

deviation was 1,14.

Table 4.3.7 The influences’ frequency.

Table 4.3.8 The influences’ basic statistic.

103


Chart 4.3.12 The perception: Respondents’ opinion towards campaign.

Chart 4.3.11 is identifying the perception of voters about the black campaign,

in the questionnaires there were two pictures attached. It was the comparation

between Jokowi and Prabowo in the campaign, and then respondents were asked if

these images were positive, negative or black campaign.

And Table 4.3.15 shows the frequency of perception with the statistics. Total

responses included as same as the explanation in the previous report.

In the section D (perception), total respondents who answered the question

were 182 and people who skipped not responding were 27.

So in the question number 12, the researcher asked the respondents about

their opinion of the political campaign. From the picture of A, it shows 56.59% (103

responses) of respondents answered it was a black campaign. While the other 43.96%

(80 responses) was thinking, it was a negative campaign.

104


Table 4.3.9 The frequency of perception with the statistics.

The frequency of black campaign was 103; meanwhile the negative campaign

was 80. The statistics showed that the minimum and maximum were 1.00 and 3.00.

Median and mean were 2.42 and standard deviation was 0.65.

Chart 4.3.13 Perception: Do they believe this in real life?.

The respondents were asked if they believe with the picture of A in real life.

Mostly of them thought that it were not true by the percentages of 80.00 % (144

responses) and the rest; 20.56 % (37 responses) thought that it was real. Respondents

who answered were 189 and who skipped not to answer were 29.

105


Chart 4.3.14 Perception: Good or Bad.

This section is to find out the perception of the voters. The respond was 62.01

% (111 responses) of this kind of advertising was not good form of advertising

campaign. But 37.99 % of respondents was responded the opposite, with the

frequency of 68.

Chart 4.3.15 Effectiveness: Campaign Sources.

This section is purposed to study the effectiveness. From question number 15,

when the respondents were asked where did they find out this kind of campaign;

106


social media held the highest source for black campaign distribution to the people

with 83.39 %, when broadcast media held only 23.20 % and printed media by 8.84 %.

Table 4.3.10 Frequency for effectiveness: Campaign Sources.

The frequency of social media was 152, while broadcast media had 42 and

printed media had 16 responses.

Chart 4.3.16 Effectiveness: Campaign Methods

Chart 4.3.15 described if this kind of method made the respondents more

interested with the campaign during the election time. The respond was no they were

not interested by 55.25 % (100 responses) and the other was agree if black campaign

made them more interested by 44.75 % (81 responses).

107


Chart 4.3.16 Effectiveness: Positive, Negative or Black campaign ads.

This section is purposed to bold the statements of the effectiveness of positive,

negative and black campaign advertisement in the last Indonesia’s presidential

turnout.

Chart 4.3.16 and Table 4.3.11 showed if positive campaign ads more

effective with 53.07% (95 responses). And it was very efficient with 34.64 % (62

responses). Total responses to it were 179 with a weighted average of 2.22.

On the contrary, negative campaign ads were not effective by 45.25 % (81

responses) and the others said that it was effective in 43.02 % (77 responses). Total

responses overall was 179 with weighted average 1.86.

And lastly, black campaign advertisement was not effective by 48.62 % (88

responses) and 34.25 % (62 responses) said it was effective. Total responses were 181

with weighted average 1.89.

108


Table 4.3.11 Effectiveness: Positive, Negative or Black campaign ads’ frequency

Table 4.3.12 Effectiveness: Positive, Negative or Black campaign ads basic statistic

The minimum and maximum of positive campaign advertisement was 1.00

and 3.00. Median and mean was 2.00 and 2.22. And standard deviation was 0.65

The minimum and maximum of negative campaign ads was 1.00 and 3.00.

Median and mean were 2.00 and 1.86. Furthermore, a standard deviation value was

0.68.

The black campaign ads minimum and the maximum was 1.00 and 3.00.

Median and mean was 2.00 and 1.69. And lastly, the standard deviation value was

0.75.

109


4.3.1 T-Test independent sample between Generation X and Y

towards specific variables of black campaign in social

media.

Table 4.3.13 a group statistic between generation X and Y towards perception of

black campaign.Group Statistics

What is your age? N Mean Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Perception

13 to 25 years old (Generation Y)

84 12.8690 2.46312 .26875

26 to 54 years old (Generation X)

99 13.2727 2.91309 .29278

Table 4.3.13 is showing the statistic of age, it consist of two groups,

generation X and Y. And perception, which combined four variables specifically

computed into one variable of perception through SPSS software. Those four

variables are people are being misguided; the advertisement gives positive political

influences to the voters; the advertisement affecting the voters’ decision; and this

campaign is active to beat up your opponent.

The statistic according to the table above is showing that, at the first row, the

perception of generation Y’s participants frequency (N), mean, standard deviation and

standard error mean.

From this it shows that the number of participants (N) reached to 84, while

mean reached to 12.86, while standard deviation is showing 2.46 and standard error

mean is showing 0.26.

110


The second row is showing generation X number of participants (N) reached

to 99; while mean scored to 13.27; and standard deviation reached 2.91 and standard

error mean reached to 0.29.

Table 4.3.14 Independent samples test between generation X and Y towards

perception of black campaign.Independent Samples Test

Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

t-test for Equality of Means

F Sig. t df Sig. (2-tailed)

Perception

Equal variances assumed

2.452 .119 -1.002 181 .318

Equal variances not assumed

-1.016 180.999 .311

Based on Table 4.3.14, it is basically showing Levene’s test for equality of

variances and the T-test for equality of means. Levene’s Test for Equality of

Variances shows that F (2.452) is not significant (0.119)*. Which indicates that the

variances are not significantly different.

(Note: * This score (sig.) has to be 0.05 or less to be considered significant).

And to make sure the result, this study is making a further step by analyzing

the T-test for equality of means. Analyzing that, under the “t-test for Equality of

Means” look at “Sig. (2-tailed)” for “Equal variances assumed”. The score is 0.318

(which is more than 0.05), therefore there is no significant difference between the

means of the two groups.

Thus, An equal variances t test failed to reveal a statistically reliable

difference between the mean perception for Generation Y (M = 12.87, s = 2.46) and

Generation X (M = 13.27, s = 2.91), t (181) = 1.00, p = .318, α = .05.

111


Table 4.3.15 Independent samples test between generation X and Y towards

perception of black campaign (2).

Independent Samples Test


Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference

Lower Upper

Perception


-.40368 .40290 -1.19867 .39131


-.40368 .39742 -1.18786 .38050

Based on table 4.3.15, the 95% confidence intervals for the difference in

means are given in the last two columns of table above shows that, the interval

associated with the assumption of equal variances is (–1.20 to 0.40), while the

confidence interval when equal variances are not assumed is (–1.19 to 0.38). Since

these intervals include 0 (zero), this study again concludes that there is no significant

difference between the means using either assumption regarding the variances.

4.4 HYPOTHESES

4.4.1 Influences. Information perceived and the effectiveness

The next findings of this research will be the influences, information perceived

and the effectiveness of a black campaign.

From the influences, this study found four findings that explain black

campaign advertising made the voters being misguided in terms of receiving

information.

112


This kind of ads also gives bad influences to the electorate, and affecting the

voters’ decision. Furthermore, this campaign in the last presidential turnout was active

to beat up the opponents.

In the aspect of perception and effectiveness, from two pictures (picture A and

B) showed in the questionnaires, there are some findings that related to the theories in

chapter 2.

Figure 4.1 Example of political campaign.

Source: twitter.com

There are three findings of perception from the collected respondents. Firstly,

respondents were agreed that picture A was the black campaign, which is true. But in

the second result, most voters do not believe that the image is a real character of

Jokowi. And the last finding of perception that most of the electorate do not think that

a black campaign is an excellent form of political campaign.

A theory that applicable to these findings is two-step flow that founded by

Paul Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson, and Hazel Gaudet. And later on the theory

developed by Katz and Lazarsfeld (Newmediatheory, 2010).

113


Figure 4.2 Two step-flow model (Katz & Lazarsfield, 1955).

Source: http://www.slideshare.net/aiyanacruz1/two-step-flow-ppt

Figure 4.2 is a descriptive example that a leader opinion through social media

could influences the followers. The leader in the further extent through their charisma,

track record, and the way he shows himself through mass media, could sparks

different reactions from their followers, either it is good or bad reactions.

The last finding of this research is the effectiveness of a black campaign in the

turnout; there are three facts that correlated to the theories as well as the hypothesis. It

is social media has become a dominant medium vehicle for the spread of the black

campaign. Secondly, this kind of campaign has made the voters slightly more

interested in the election.

Moreover, this study has found that in the last presidential election, the voters

are more prefer to active campaign advertisement rather than negative and black

campaign ad.

114

http://www.slideshare.net/aiyanacruz1/two-step-flow-ppt


4.4.2 Hypothesis and Research Findings.

In the beginning of this study, there was explanation about hypothesis:

H1: Black campaign gives positive impact to the turnout.

There are some facts from the research findings; firstly mostly the respondents

were participated in the election (81.63%/ 160 responses); and because of decent

education background they had, help them thought process (77.01% were graduated

form university/165 responses); they seek information about candidates from new

media (49.73 %/93 responses) and broadcast media (26.52 % / 48 responses), while

printed media became much lesser as media campaign vehicle (13.19% / 24

responses).

Furthermore, the study found that respondents believe that black campaign is

not a good form of political campaign (62.09% / 113 responses). People already

acknowledge differentiating the black campaign (56.45% /105 responses) and

negative campaign (44.09% / 82 responses). They also do not believe black campaign

propaganda in social media (80.43 % / 148 responses).

Therefore, results informed that positive advertising campaign (52.2% / 98

responses) is more effective than black (44.81% / 82 responses) or negative (48.11% /

89 responses).

H2: Black campaign gives negative impact to the turnout.

Based on research finding in section 4.3, this hypothesis was supported by

some findings that people are being misguided (47.80% / 87 responses), the

advertising affecting the others voting decision (51.63% / 95 responses), most people

agree this kind of campaign is capable to beat up the opponents (31.19% / 57

responses), but it also gives a bad influence (33.15% / 61 replies) and they acted

115


neutrally to get involve in the campaign process (51,01% / 101 replies) instead of

supporting it.

4.5 CONCLUSION

Indonesia’s last presidential election in 2014 already passed, and democracy

process was well implemented. The fight between the two candidates; Jokowi-Jusuf

Kalla versus Prabowo-Hatta had passed through fair and sportive voting, with

independent surveys authority and official commissioner of election watched over the

process of voting. The results were clear, Jokowi and Jusuf kalla was the winner and

deserved to be a president and vice-president of the Republic of Indonesia for the

2014-2019 period.

But, there are some flaws in the process of democracy while the campaign

conducted. The practices of the black campaign through social media had violated and

distorted the democracy process of the election. The lack of implementation of the

law and regulations helps the widespread of the black campaign, and it became an

epidemic of how inappropriate information transmitted through social media and the

citizens became the victims of the propaganda.

This chapter concluded 35 findings; it includes respondent background;

political behavior; sources of media; preferences to seek information about

candidates; influences, perception, and effectiveness of the black campaign.

The results of these findings from Survey Monkey are various and from them it

suits well with the H1 and H2. It proves that black campaign, however, gives good

and also bad impact to the turnout in the last presidential election.

116


And from SPSS’s T-test independent sample, it strengthens this research with its

finding, resulted there were no significant variances between perception through

generation X and Y.

117


|Chapter Five|

5.1 INTRODUCTIONThis chapter contains four sub-headings in which they are arranged

commencing from the discussion, achieving research objectives, achieving research

goal, research implication, recommendation and future research, limitation of research

and conclusion.

5.2 DISCUSSIONThis section will compare the results of the study with past journals; these

include the hypothesis, research findings and data analysis that similar and related to

the topic of the study.

As explained in the chapter 4, in order fulfilling two hypotheses in this study.

Two methods were used; the first one was descriptive analysis through Survey

Monkey to measure all variables into frequency, mean, median, standard deviation

and some of them valued into a weighted average. Then the second method was

Pearson’s correlation test to quantify the relationship generation X and Y with

specific variables to meet the requirements of this research.

As stated before in the previous chapter that the hypothesis statement of this

research is:

H1: Black campaign gives positive impact to the turnout.

Findings that supported H1 from the research were the respondents

participated in the election (81,63%/ 160 responses). Martin (2004) indicated that he

perception of problems also stimulates interest in the campaign and beliefs about the

importance of voting. As negative campaigns frequently center on issues. Exposure to

118


a negative advertisement should encourage participation by heightening perceptions

of public problems.

The second finding of this research is they seek information about candidates

from new media (49,73 %/93 responses). And broadcast media (26,52 % / 48

responses), while printed media became much lesser as media campaign vehicle

(13,19% / 24 replies).

Hamilton (2011) in her study found the result from an ANOVA statistical

analysis; there was no relationship between social media usage and voter

participation. As the result from her first hypothesis that, that the presence of social

media usage would positively affect voter participation, was not supported.

And her second hypothesis stated, “the presence of social media would

positively influence the likelihood of voting for a candidate,” was also not supported

in the way her study initially predicted.

The results of her study on “Use of Social Media in Presidential Campaigns:

Do Social Media Have an Effect on the Political Behavior of Voters Aged 18-24”. It

did find that participants rely heavily on social media to gain information on political

candidates. However, the vast majority of respondents utilized Facebook much more

than other types of social media. 46.4% of respondents used Facebook to obtain

information on political candidates seven days per week while only 9% utilize

Twitter, and only 4% use blogs at the same rate.

And the third finding, because of proper education background they had, help

them through the process (77.01% were graduated from university/165 responses).

Hibbing and Theiss-Morse (2002) argues that people who are more educated

and politically informed want more substantive and deliberative campaigns. While

119


those who have less schooling and familiarity with the political process favor simple

cues rather than the complex one.

Furthermore, fourth finding of this study found that respondents believe that

the black campaign is not a proper form of a political campaign (62,09% / 113

responses). Sixth finding, people already acknowledge differentiating the black

campaign (56,45% /105 replies) and negative campaign (44,09% / 82 responses).

Seventh finding, they also do not believe black campaign propaganda in social media

(80,43 % / 148 responses).

Therefore, eighth finding of this study results informed that positive

advertising campaign (53.55% / 98 responses) is more effective than black (34.58 % /

64 responses) or negative (43.72% / 80 responses).

Lau, Sigelman and Rovner (2007) concluded that negative campaigning is no

more effective than positive campaigning holds even though negative campaigns

appear to be somewhat more memorable and to generate slightly greater campaign-

relevant knowledge.

Brooks (2006) conducted a systematic study of 186 newspaper and magazine

articles linking negative advertising and turnout from 2000 through 2005. And the

report said that 65% of the articles concluded that negative campaigning depresses

turnout while only 6% found that it might increase participation.

H2: Black campaign gives negative impact to the turnout.

This hypothesis was supported by some findings, like the ninth conclusion,

that people are being misguided (47.80% / 87 responses),

According to Daignault, Soroka and Giasson (2013) Ads may provide

information to voters as they weigh their voting option:

120


a. Ads may shift their view of the campaign;

b. Ads may also condition or frame the way in which voters interpret or seek out

information later in the campaign.

Tenth finding stated that the negative advertising was affecting the others

voting decision (51,63% / 95 responses). Daignault, Soroka and Giasson (2013)

indicated that the results are negative ads generated more emotional and attention

responses than positive ads. The results on cognitive impacts show a greater

resistance to persuasion, as evidenced by the increased number of counterarguments.

Eleventh and twelve findings of this study stated that most people agree this

kind of campaign is useful to beat up the opponents (31,19% / 57 responses). But it

also gives a bad influence (33,15% / 61 replies).

Thus, the conclusion to be drawn from the literature is clear: Negative

campaigning has the potential to do damage to the political system itself. As it tends

to reduce feelings of political efficacy, trust in government, and perhaps even

satisfaction with government itself (Lau, Sigelman and Rovner, 2007).

And the thirteen finding resulted they acted neutrally to get involve in the

campaign process (51.01% / 101 responses) instead of supporting it. Drawing on the

idea of republican civic duty, Martin (2004) found that when people perceive more

problems facing the country, they are more likely to participate in politics.

Martin (2004) also added that the perception of problems also stimulates

interest in the campaign and beliefs about the importance of voting. As negative

campaigns frequently center on issues. It is likely that citizens pick up information

about collective problems inadvertently through negative ads more than they would

from positive ads because of the way that negative information advantaged in

attention, memory, and judgment.

121


5.3 ACHIEVING RESEARCH OBJECTIVEWhen this research at the first stage was conducted, there are three objectives

questions to be answered while this research have been going and it must be

accomplished in order to complete the objective of this study.

In section 1.5, it was explained the research objective with three questions

included; R1, R2, and R3. And to proof if this questions are accomplished, this study

will answer each questions based on the research findings.

R1: How is the black campaign influence the turnout for the presidential election

over social media?

Based on the research findings, this study have found some findings based on

4 variables questions given to the respondents that, black campaign had successfully

make people being misguided caused of the spread of black campaign in the last

presidential election.

Second variables, black campaign gives bad influences to the voters.

Therefore in the third variables, resulted that it was somehow affect the voting

intentions and decision of the voters.

Fourth variable explained that black campaign, however, were effective to

beat up the opponents.

R2: How generation Y and X perceived the information of black campaign, they

thought process and their vote intentions?

Based on research findings, this study is want to identifying the perception of

voters about the black campaign, in the questionnaires there were two pictures

122


attached. It was the comparation between Jokowi and Prabowo in the campaign, and

then respondents were asked some questions to see their thought.

There are three findings of perception from the collected respondents; firstly,

respondents were agreed that picture A was black campaign, which is true. But in the

second finding, most voters do not believe that the picture is a true character of

Jokowi. And the last finding of perception that mostly of the voters do not believe that

black campaign is a good form of political campaign.

And some added findings to support this answer are before the respondents

vote their candidate choice, they are likely to listen to their stories and they must have

social media such as facebook, twitter, blogs or webpages to convince them to vote.

On the other hand, the information perceived for generation X and Y towards

black campaign advertisements with the use of Independent sample T-test; the result

was there are no significant values of perception towards generation X and Y.

R3: How much effectiveness is the black and negative campaign through social

media in Indonesia?

According to research findings, it is social media has become a dominant

medium vehicle for the spread of black campaign. Secondly, this kind of campaign

has made the voters slightly more interested during the election.

Moreover, this study has found that in the last presidential election, the voters

are more prefer to positive campaign advertisement rather than negative and black

campaign advertisement.

123


5.4 ACHIEVING RESEARCH GOALSResearch goal on this study has been achieved after it was successfully

identifying the influence, information perceived towards black campaign and the

effectiveness of black campaign through social media.

5.5 RESEARCH IMPLICATIONSo in this section 5.5, is basically to compare the findings with the theory in

chapter 2. There are three theories to relate to the findings; they are Elaboration

likelihood model that found by Petty and Cacciopo (1987), agenda setting theory by

McCombs and Shaw (1968) and limitation effects by Lazarsfield (1955).

There are many theories that applicable to this study research finding. Firstly,

the result of question number 9, measuring the number of respondents use sources of

media sees days per week. The result from 182 respondents indicated that most

respondents only use printed media 1 day/week with the percentages 31,32% (52

responses). Then broadcast media and new media had been their priority sources of

media by having a percentages of 26,52 % (48 responses) and 49,73% (93 responses).

This finding conclude that Indonesian voters today are more likely to checking

out the campaign from new media such as phone apps, blogs, facebook, pinterest,

instagram, and twitter.

Because of the advancement of the Internet and social networks, there are

varieties of opinions concerning agenda-setting effects online. Some have claimed

that the power of traditional media has been weakened (Meraz, 2011).

124


Klapper (1960) in Effects of Mass Communication also declared the limited

effect of media. Agenda setting caused a paradigm shift in the study of media effects

from persuasion to informing by connecting media content and its effects on the

public.

In question number 10, this research found some interesting findings about

respondents’ behavior when they are looking information of president candidates in

new media.

The first finding is the respondents choose to be neutral if the candidates don’t

have webpages. Second finding is they agree and believe with the information of

candidates in the Internet. Third finding is even tough Internet has become a reliable

source of information popular nowadays, the respondents is still acted neutral.

Moreover, most respondents enjoy researching political candidates on the

Internet, and most of them follow candidates on twitter and facebook, and they need

to get information about the candidates before voting.

But when respondents chose to be neutral when it comes to follow candidates

in social media; such as facebook, twitter, path, blogs, etc).

The findings of question number 10 proved that Lazarsfield (1955) in limited

effects theory, the media doesn’t have the impact we think it does. Only a few people

are actually open to psychological manipulation of the media and it is pretty

powerless in shaping opinion because individuals and groups are different to one

another.

Lazarsfield (1955) indicated that media rarely influences individual decision-

making. Direct propaganda comes from others such as friends, family, colleagues, etc.

When opinion leader influences people, then media is becoming influential. Audience

125


as adults have already developed opinions independent from the media, only socially

isolated people may be directly affected by media

And he added that Media effects us in a limited way because: Individual

differences, psychology or perception, personality characteristics of audiences, group

membership, e.g. age, gender, class and status, ethnicity, sexuality, disability/ability,

regional identity.

According to research result, mostly respondents whom answered the

questionnaires were university graduate, while generation X was slightly more

involved in this study rather than generation Y, and most of them have job occupation

as private company employee, and most of them situated in Jabodetabek (Jakarta,

Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi).

5.6 RECOMMENDATION AND FUTURE

RESEARCHFirst recommendations for the future researcher, especially in Indonesia, it is

to conduct a more in-depth study on the black campaign over social media and its

influence, perception, and the effectiveness. Therefore resulted in voting intentions.

As Indonesia is known globally as a democracy country, the future researcher

should take advantage of Indonesia's uniqueness and perhaps conduct a research

targeting with difference variables and different methods. To get more in-depth results

and achieve the more significant value of the research and could be usable for social

science and politics, as applied science and the implementation in real life.

126


Another recommendation for any kind of future research about political

campaign is to add more variables into research frameworks, thus the report will be

more attractive with more results.

5.7 LIMITATION OF RESEARCHWhen this research conducted, there are some obstacles and also weaknesses

faced by the researcher. It starts with lack of numbers of Indonesian political journals

that made and focused only on Indonesia’s issue. Therefore to get information of

Indonesia’s political situation, especially political advertisement, this study have

sourced a lot of foreign political journals, which has similar or closer to the topic of

this research.

Next, it is the biased of Indonesian media makes this research must be

objective and fair. It is because, in the last campaign, most of Indonesia’s media

corporate were supporting their candidates as agenda-setting theory implemented.

Another limitation that the researcher faced was during the data

implementation and collection phrase. The construction of the questionnaires was

rather challenging part since most of the previous research that conducted survey, as

their data collection method tends to focus on a different angle of political

advertisement through social media. It is usually an aspect that could not be justified

to be use in a study based on the Indonesian audience. Besides that, the small sample

would also not justify the entire generalization made since the whole population of

this country has reached approximately 250 million of inhabitants.

5.7 CONCLUSION

There are some highlights from the beginning of this research titled," IMPACT

OF BLACK CAMPAIGN IN SOCIAL MEDIA TOWARDS INDONESIA'S

127


PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2014: MEASURING SUCCESSFUL OF CAMPAIGN

STRATEGY IN POLITICS".

In chapter one, this research reviewed some important points of the history of

Indonesia's general election as well as the presidential election. It was explained

briefly from the first election to the latest one, timelines of election's years added as

well as some information about the development of democracy process in Indonesia.

Then this paper continues some important points and facts about the latest

election; especially the clash of two candidates and to make it straightforward, some

facts were equipped and added. For instances, the distribution maps of voters of both

candidates; political campaign methods they use traditional media and how mass

media in Indonesia were biased delivering information to the citizens. Then the trend

of social media as media vehicle of political campaign and how black campaign were

attacking the both candidates, were apparently told in the chapter one.

In chapter two, there were three theories: agenda-setting theories, elaboration

likelihood model, and limited effect methods. And also six past research journals that

support the studies and research framework of this study was created, which followed

the causal model, purposely to meet the objectives of the study.

The next chapter, which is chapter 3, is discussed on how this study

conducted. It started from the sample size estimation, the use of "rule of thumb" to

meet the criteria of the instrument of this research. It stated that it needed 200

respondents to start spread the questionnaires. It based on online surveys via Survey

Monkey.

The use of Cronbach's alpha to check the valid and reliability of the instrument

proofed that the tool was good enough. The questionnaires itself consist of seventeen

questions with scale-like and multiple-choice, and it divided into four sections;

128


section A is about the respondents’ personal data, Section B is about the political

behavior of the respondents. Part C is about respondents’ use of media and in regards

to political candidates. Section D is more in-depth of the black campaign, and to

measure the influence, information perceived and effectiveness of that kind of ads

through social media.

Chapter four discussed on research findings from survey monkey and some

support from SPSS software to seek the significant variances between Gen X and Y

towards perception. And from the survey monkey descriptive analysis was analyzed

briefly, to see if the hypothesis and the findings were coherent or not from the whole

study.

And lastly in chapter five, were mainly discussed the results with some

theories and past research that support or not support the hypothesis. Which from this

discussion, there are some strings can be pulled that social media has become an

important new vehicle of campaigning. And it is possible that new media would

replace a traditional media as the vehicle of the campaign in the future of the political

movement.

Research findings have supported this statement, first reason that Internet has

become common things nowadays, as more people are using this every day since ever

since it was founded. Voters tend to seek information about the candidates from the

Internet.

Then, the advancement of technology, like smartphones and another gadgets

also helps and make ease to people to access information, including black, positive or

negative campaign through their gadget in its application of their devices.

However, the spread of black campaign via social media in Indonesia give

good and bad impact to the turnout. This is a proof that, Indonesian citizens can

129


differentiate which campaign is true and which campaign is not true. Background of

education, experiences, and their thinking-process are developing by the time goes

and it is the key on how the democracy in Indonesia evolve to be better.

Hopefully, after what happened in the last general and presidential election,

the practices of black campaign through social media could be prevented by the

strength of the implementation of regulation and law. Thus then next election of

Indonesia could be more fair, sportive, and cleverer. For the better of democracy.

130


REFERENCES

Salim, H. (2015, January 22). Kasus Obor Rakyat Segera Disidangkan, 2 Tersangka

Tak Ditahan. Liputan6.com. Retrieved February 1, 2015, from

http://news.liputan6.com/read/2164540/kasus-obor-rakyat-segera-disidangkan-2-

tersangka-tak-ditahan

Order Hitam Dibalik Obor Rakyat. (2014, July 1). Jakpro. Retrieved February 4,

2015, from http://www.jakpro.id/order-hitam-dibalik-obor-rakyat/

Survei Politicawave : Kampanye Hitam Paling Banyak Menyerang Jokowi-JK. (2014,

June 6). Suara Pembaruan. Retrieved February 5, 2015, from

http://sp.beritasatu.com/pemilu-2014/survei-politicawave-kampanye-hitam-paling-

banyak-menyerang-jokowi-jk/56964

Pratomo, Y. (2014, May 8). Beredar kampanye hitam Jokowi meninggal dunia.

Merdeka.com. Retrieved February 4, 2015, from

http://www.merdeka.com/politik/beredar-kampanye-hitam-jokowi-meninggal-

dunia.html

Wattenberg, M., & Brians, C. (1996). Negative Campaign Advertising: Demobilizer

or Mobilizer? The American Political Science Review, 891-891. Retrieved April 3,

2015, from http://escholarship.org/uc/item/7gf3q1w1

Indonesian youth habits and entertainment - ASEAN UP. (2015, January 22).

Retrieved March 3, 2015, from http://aseanup.com/indonesian-youth-habits-

entertainment/

131

http://www.merdeka.com/politik/beredar-kampanye-hitam-jokowi-meninggal-dunia.html

http://www.merdeka.com/politik/beredar-kampanye-hitam-jokowi-meninggal-dunia.html


Connelly, A. (2014, January 1). INDONESIA ELECTIONS AND THE JOKOWI

PRESIDENCY. Lowyinstitute.org. Retrieved February 9, 2015, from

http://www.lowyinstitute.org/issues/indonesia-elections

Masha, N. (2014, May 30). Republika. Retrieved January 4, 2015, from

http://www.republika.co.id/berita/kolom/resonansi/14/05/29/n6c7pl-negative-

campaign-black-campaign-dan-bandul-suara-islam

Bachelard, M. (2014, June 24). Prabowo Subianto: Will he be Indonesia's next

president? The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved February 8, 2015, from

http://www.smh.com.au/world/prabowo-subianto-will-he-be-indonesias-next-

president-20140620-zsgeg.html

Black Campaign Rusak Esensi Demokrasi. (2014, July 6). Republika. Retrieved

January 23, 2015, from

http://nasional.republika.co.id/berita/nasional/politik/14/07/06/n894rw-black-

campaign-rusak-esensi-demokrasi

Hamid, S. (2009, July 7). Indonesia’s Presidential Election: History in the Making.

Asia Foundation. Retrieved February 8, 2015, from

http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2009/07/07/indonesias-presidential-election-history-

in-the-making/

History of Elections in Indonesia. (2014, April 8). Jakarta Globe. Retrieved February

10, 2015, from http://thejakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/blogs/globe-beat/history-

elections-indonesia/

Stott, D. (2014, March 13). Election threatens democracy in Indonesia. Asia Times.

Retrieved February 17, 2015, from

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-02-130314.html

132


Pimpinan Ponpes Ini Minta Sesama Muslim Jangan Saling Fitnah. (2014, July 6).

Republika. Retrieved February 14, 2015, from

http://www.republika.co.id/berita/pemilu/hot-politic/14/07/06/n8923f-pimpinan-

ponpes-ini-minta-sesama-muslim-jangan-saling-fitnah

Smith, A. (2015). U.S. Smartphone Use in 2015. Pew Research Center. Retrieved

May 1, 2015, from http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/04/01/us-smartphone-use-in-

2015/

How Obama Won the Social Media Battle in the 2012 Presidential Campaign. (2013).

The Media Psychology Blog. Retrieved February 2, 2015, from

http://mprcenter.org/blog/2013/01/how-obama-won-the-social-media-battle-in-the-

2012-presidential-campaign/

S. Martin, P. (2004). Effects of negative campaigning on turnout. In Inside the Black

Box of Negative Campaign Effects: Three Reasons Why Negative Campaigns

Mobilize (4th ed., Vol. 25). Oklahoma, Oklahoma: Department of politcal science,

university of oklahoma.

Nicholson, S. (2008). WHAT VOTERS WANT FROM OFFICIAL POLITICAL

CANDIDATE WEBSITES. Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of

Georgetown University.

Lipsitz, K., Trost, C., Grossman, M., & Sides, J. (2005). Political Communication.

What Voters Want From Political Campaign Communication, 22:337–354(ISSN:

1058-4609 print / 1091-7675 online), 337-354. Retrieved April 10, 2015, from

http://home.gwu.edu/~jsides/polcomm.pdf

133

http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/04/01/us-smartphone-use-in-2015/

http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/04/01/us-smartphone-use-in-2015/


R. Lau, R., Siegelman, L., & Rovner, I. (2007). The Effects of Negative Political

Campaigns: A Meta-Analytic Reassessment. The Journal of Politics, 69(4), 1176-

1209. Retrieved April 10, 2015, from

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00618.x/abstract

Daignault, P., Soroka, S., & Giasson, T. (2013). The Perception of Political

Advertising During an Election Campaign: A Measure of Cognitive and Emotional

Effects. Journal of Communication, 38, 167-186. Retrieved April 7, 2015, from

http://snsoroka.com/files/2013DaignaultSorokaGiasson.pdf

M. Hansen, K. (2009). The Effect of Political Campaigns – Overview of the research

Online Panel of Electoral Campaigning (OPEC). Political Communication:

Antecedents, Contents and Effects of Political Information.

Use of Social Media in Presidential Campaigns: Do Social Media Have an Effect on

the Political Behavior of Voters Aged 18-24? (2011). Honors Theses. Retrieved

February 3, 2015, from http://docs.rwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?

article=1003&context=honors_theses

Independent & Dependent Variables. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2, 2015, from

http://www2.uncp.edu/home/collierw/ivdv.htm

Noor, F. (2014, July 12). Playing the wrong cards at the Indonesian election. The

Strait Times. Retrieved February 13, 2015, from http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-

story/asia-report/indonesia/story/playing-the-wrong-cards-the-indonesian-election-

20140712

Kartila, I. (2014, July 11). Ke Mana Objektivitas Media Dalam Pilpres 2014? Antara

News. Retrieved February 11, 2015, from

134

http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-story/asia-report/indonesia/story/playing-the-wrong-cards-the-indonesian-election-20140712



http://docs.rwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=honors_theses

http://docs.rwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=honors_theses


http://babel.antaranews.com/berita/11454/ke-mana-objektivitas-media-dalam-pilpres-

2014

Hamilton, Samantha, "Use of Social Media in Presidential Campaigns: Do Social

Media Have an Effect on the Political Behavior of Voters Aged 18-24?" (2011).

Honors Theses. Paper 4. http://docs.rwu.edu/honors_theses/4

Parikesit, G. (2014, June 24). Fadli Zon Persoalkan Kompas dan Tempo. Tempo

Online. Retrieved February 12, 2015, from

http://pemilu.tempo.co/read/news/2014/06/24/269587526/Fadli-Zon-Persoalkan-

Keberpihakan-Tempo

Ke Mana Objektivitas Media Dalam Pilpres 2014? (2014, July 11). Suara Pembaruan.

Retrieved February 4, 2015, from http://sp.beritasatu.com/home/ke-mana-

objektivitas-media-dalam-pilpres-2014/59572

Faisal, H. (2014, July 15). KAMPANYE PILPRES 2014 Dinilai Terburuk Sepanjang

Sejarah Indonesia. Kabar24.com. Retrieved March 2, 2015, from

http://kabar24.bisnis.com/read/20140715/15/243584/kampanye-pilpres-2014-dinilai-

terburuk-sepanjang-sejarah-indonesia

Aminullah, A. (2014). RELASI MEDIA DAN KOMUNIKASI POLITIK PADA

PILPRES 2014 DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI POLITIK MEDIA.

Acdemia.edu. Retrieved May 6, 2015, from

http://www.academia.edu/9494842/RELASI_MEDIA_DAN_KOMUNIKASI_POLIT

IK_PADA_PILPRES_2014_DALAM_PERSPEKTIF_EKONOMI_POLITIK_MEDI

A

135


John T. Cacioppo and Richard E. Petty (1984) ,"The Elaboration Likelihood Model of

Persuasion", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 11, eds. Thomas C.

Kinnear, Provo, UT : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 673-675.

Moore, C. (n.d.). Elaboration Likelihood model. Retrieved March 16, 2015, from

http://130.18.140.19/persuasion/elaboration_likelihood_model.htm

Kerr, Gayle F., Beede, Park, Proud, William, & Schultz, Don (2010) The elaboration

likelihood model in the new millennium : an exploration study. In: 2010 American

Academy of Advertising European conference, 4 - 6 June, 2010, Milan, Italy.

McCombs, M. (2003). The Agenda-Setting Role of the Mass Media in the Shaping of

Public OpinionThe Agenda-Setting Role of the Mass Media in the Shaping of Public

Opinion.

Scheufele, D. (2000). Agenda setting, priming, and framing revisited: Another look at

cognitive effects of political communication. Mass Communication & Society. 3(2-3),

297-316.

Littlejohn, Stephen W. Theories of Human Communication. Seventh

Edition.Albuquerque, New Mexico. Wadsworth, 2002.

McCombs, Maxwell E, and Donald L. Shaw. The Emergence of American Political

Issues. New York. West Publishing Co, 1977.

Wilson,James R., and Roy S.Wilson. Mass Media, Mass Culture, Fifth

Edition.Boston.Mc Graw Hill, 2001.

Costello, V., & Moore, B. (2007). Cultural Outlaws: An Examination of Audience

Activity and Online Television Fandom. Television & New Media, 8(2), 124-143.

136


Katz, E., & Lazarsfeld, P. (1955). Personal influence; the part played by people in the

flow of mass communications,. Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press.

Klapper, J. (1960). The effects of mass communication. Illnois: The Free Press.

Limited Effects Theory & Paul Lazarsfeld. (2010, January 23). Retrieved February 9,

2015, from https://almostcultured.wordpress.com/tag/limited-effects-theory-paul-

lazarsfeld/

Katz, E., & Lazarsfeld, P. (1955). Personal influence; the part played by people in the

flow of mass communications,. Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press.

Walgrave, S., & Aelst, P. (2006). The Contingency of the Mass Media's Political

Agenda Setting Power: Toward a Preliminary Theory. J Communication Journal of

Communication, 88-109. Retrieved February 16, 2015, from

http://uahost.uantwerpen.be/m2p/publications/00101132.pdf

Spring, S. (2002). Agenda Setting. Retrieved May 16, 2015, from

http://zimmer.csufresno.edu/~johnca/spch100/7-4-agenda.htm

Katz, E. (1948). Lazarsfeld'S Map of Media Effects. International Journal of Public

Opinion Research, 13(3), 270-279. Retrieved May 16, 2015, from

http://www.infoamerica.org/documentos_pdf/katz01.pdf

How Obama Won the Social Media Battle in the 2012 Presidential Campaign. (2013).

The Media Psychology Blog. Retrieved February 2, 2015, from

http://mprcenter.org/blog/2013/01/how-obama-won-the-social-media-battle-in-the-

2012-presidential-campaign/

137


Schonhardt, S. (2014, August 4). Indonesia’s Election: 5 Takeaways. The Wall Street

Journal. Retrieved April 6, 2015, from

http://blogs.wsj.com/indonesiarealtime/2014/08/04/5-takeaways-from-indonesias-

election/v

The Minimum Sample Size in Factor Analysis - Nathan Zhao - Wiki of Encorelab

Toronto. (2009, January 1). Retrieved May 2, 2015, from

https://www.encorewiki.org/display/~nzhao/The Minimum Sample Size in Factor

Analysis

Rules of thumb for minimum sample size for multiple regression. (n.d.). Retrieved

May 2, 2015, from http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/10079/rules-of-thumb-

for-minimum-sample-size-for-multiple-regression

Barrat, H. (2010, June 20). Methods of sampling from a population. Retrieved May 2,

2015, from http://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/public-health-textbook/research-

methods/1a-epidemiology/methods-of-sampling-population

Eng, J. (2003). Sample Size Estimation: How Many Individuals Should Be Studied?

Radiology, 309-313. Retrieved May 2, 2015, from

https://biotime.uchicago.edu/eng_samplesize.pdf

Sample Size Estimation. (n.d.). Retrieved May 2, 2015, from

http://www.cct.cuhk.edu.hk/stat/Means.htm

VanVoorhis, C. (2007). Understanding Power and Rules of Thumb for Determining

Sample Sizes. Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 3(2), 43‐50-43‐50.

Retrieved March 4, 2015, from

http://www.tqmp.org/RegularArticles/vol03-2/p043/p043.pdf

138


Spss, B. (2015, February 26). How to Test Validity questionnaire Using SPSS.

Retrieved May 22, 2015, from http://www.spsstests.com/2015/02/how-to-test-

validity-questionnaire.html

Meraz, Sharon. "The fight for ‘how to think’: Traditional media, social networks, and

issue interpretation."Journalism 12.1 (2011): 107-127.

Petty, R. E., & Brinol, P. (2012). The elaboration likelihood model. Pp. 224-245 in

van Lange,Kruglanski & Higgins, eds, Handbook of Theories of Social Psychology,

vol. 1 London: SagePublications.tracing the development of the elaboration likelihood

model (ELM)across three decades of research.

Lewis, B. (2015). Two-Step Flow Model. Wiley Encyclopedia of Management, 1-1.

139


APPENDIX

ATTACHMENT A (Survey Monkey’s questionnaires)

140


141


142


143


144


ATTACHMENT B: (Cronbach’s Alpha).RELIABILITY /VARIABLES=q0007_0001 q0009_0001 q0009_0002 q0009_0003 q0010_0001 q0010_0002 q0010_0003 q0010_0004 q0010_0005 q0010_0006 q0010_0007 q0010_0008 q0010_0009 q0010_0010 q0010_0011 q0011_0001 q0011_0002 q0011_0003 q0011_0004 q0017_0001 q0017_0002 q0017_0003 /SCALE('ALL VARIABLES') ALL /MODEL=ALPHA /STATISTICS=DESCRIPTIVE SCALE CORR COV /SUMMARY=TOTAL MEANS.

Reliability

Notes

Output Created 04-JUN-2015 22:54:57Comments

Input

Data/Users/ISJS/Downloads/result 4.sav

Active Dataset DataSet1Filter <none>Weight <none>Split File <none>N of Rows in Working Data File

25

Matrix Input

Missing Value Handling

Definition of MissingUser-defined missing values are treated as missing.

Cases UsedStatistics are based on all cases with valid data for all variables in the procedure.

145


Syntax

RELIABILITY /VARIABLES=q0007_0001 q0009_0001 q0009_0002 q0009_0003 q0010_0001 q0010_0002 q0010_0003 q0010_0004 q0010_0005 q0010_0006 q0010_0007 q0010_0008 q0010_0009 q0010_0010 q0010_0011 q0011_0001 q0011_0002 q0011_0003 q0011_0004 q0017_0001 q0017_0002 q0017_0003 /SCALE('ALL VARIABLES') ALL /MODEL=ALPHA /STATISTICS=DESCRIPTIVE SCALE CORR COV /SUMMARY=TOTAL MEANS.

ResourcesProcessor Time 00:00:00.05

Elapsed Time 00:00:01.00

[DataSet1] /Users/ISJS/Downloads/result 4.sav

Warnings

The determinant of the covariance matrix is zero or approximately zero. Statistics based on its inverse matrix cannot be computed and they are displayed as system missing values.

146


Scale: ALL VARIABLES

Case Processing Summary

N %

Cases

Valid 17 68.0

Excludeda 8 32.0

Total 25 100.0

a. Listwise deletion based on all variables in the procedure.

Reliability Statistics

Cronbach's Alpha Cronbach's Alpha Based on

Standardized Items

N of Items

.805 .776 22

Item Statistics

Mean Std. Deviation N

q0007_0001 2.9412 1.14404 17Print media (newspaper, magazines, flyers)

3.2353 1.88843 17

Broadcast media (radio, tv) 3.9412 1.95162 17New media (phone apps, blogs, fb, path, pinterest, instagram, twitter)

5.2353 1.75105 17

I listen to news stories about political candidates before voting.

4.0588 .65865 17

If a political candidate does not have a webpage, I will be less likely to vote for him/her.

2.9412 1.02899 17

147


When researching a political candidate on the internet, availability of information on their beliefs is important to me.

3.7059 .91956 17

The internet is a reliable source for information on political candidates.

2.9412 1.08804 17

The information presented on cable news about political candidates is generally true.

2.5294 1.00733 17

If a political candidate does not use facebook, I will be less likely to vote for him/her.

2.1765 1.13111 17

I enjoy researching political candidates on the internet.

3.1765 1.23669 17

I follow political candidates on Twitter.

2.5882 1.27764 17

I look at political candidate's webpages.

2.7647 1.20049 17

If a candidate wants to appeal to me, he/she should use social media (Facebook, Twitter, blogs, etc).

2.7059 1.31171 17

I would follow a candidate of a different political party than myself on social media sites (Facebook, Twitter, blogs, etc).

2.5882 1.00367 17

People are being misguided 3.9412 1.02899 17This advertisement gives positive influences to the voters

2.3529 1.36662 17

This advertisement affecting the voters decision

3.7647 1.03256 17

This campaign is effective to beat up your opponent

3.1176 1.05370 17

Positive campaign advertisement

2.2941 .68599 17

148


Negative campaign advertisement

1.6471 .60634 17

Black campaign advertisement

1.5882 .61835 17

149

Inter-Item Correlation Matrix

q0007_0001

Print media (newspaper, magazines,

flyers)

Broadcast

media (radio,

tv)

New media (phon

e apps, blogs,

fb, path, pinterest,

instagram,

twitter)

I listen to

news stories about politic

al candid

ates before voting

.

If a politic

al candid

ate does not

have a webpage, I

will be less

likely to vote

for him/h

er.

When researching

a politic

al candidate on

the intern

et, availability

of information on

their beliefs

is important to me.

The internet is a reliabl

e source

for information on

political

candidates.

The information

presented on cable news about politic

al candidates is genera

lly true.

q0007_0001 1.000 .123 .530 .507 .337 .315 .220 .499 .571Print media (newspaper, magazines, flyers)

.123 1.000 .479 .322 -.464 .394 .438 .251 .358

Broadcast media (radio, tv)

.530 .479 1.000 .535 .149 .247 .164 .558 .398

New media (phone apps, blogs, fb, path, pinterest, instagram, twitter)

.507 .322 .535 1.000 .204 .563 .434 .565 .527


.337 -.464 .149 .204 1.000 .098 -.073 .180 .139

If a political candidate does not have a webpage, I will be less likely to vote

.315 .394 .247 .563 .098 1.000 .641 .332 .755



If a political candidate does not use facebook, I will be less

likely to vote for him/her.

I enjoy research

ing political candidat

es on the

internet.

I follow political candidat

es on Twitter.

I look at political candidat

e's webpag

es.

If a candidate wants

to appeal to me, he/she should

use social media

(Facebook,

Twitter, blogs, etc).

I would follow a candidat

e of a different political

party than

myself on

social media sites

(Facebook,

Twitter, blogs, etc).

People are

being misguid

ed

This advertisement gives

positive influences to the voters

This advertisement

affecting the voters

decision

q0007_0001 .057 .494 .367 .171 .321 .032 -.056 -.066 -.383Print media (newspaper, magazines, flyers)

.389 .061 .379 .495 .282 .483 .136 .378 -.194


.288 .264 .140 .207 .335 .114 .278 .008 -.286


.072 .441 .074 .117 .141 .059 -.235 -.167 -.279


-.099 .217 -.267 -.060 .166 -.339 -.271 -.302 .205

150



.493 .598 .646 .443 .542 .580 -.417 .282 -.661


.113 .268 .529 .443 .287 .538 -.350 .187 -.472


.263 .566 .161 .180 .337 .205 -.227 .099 -.236


.571 .623 .666 .523 .598 .538 -.390 .174 -.474


1.000 .423 .443 .631 .795 .674 -.205 .685 -.230

151



.423 1.000 .365 -.012 .342 .515 -.286 -.039 -.504


.443 .365 1.000 .585 .595 .688 -.352 .411 -.741


.631 -.012 .585 1.000 .787 .537 -.417 .663 -.148


.795 .342 .595 .787 1.000 .567 -.384 .550 -.285


.674 .515 .688 .537 .567 1.000 -.388 .386 -.461

People are being misguided

-.205 -.286 -.352 -.417 -.384 -.388 1.000 -.118 .104

152


This advertisement gives positive influences to the voters

.685 -.039 .411 .663 .550 .386 -.118 1.000 -.159


-.230 -.504 -.741 -.148 -.285 -.461 .104 -.159 1.000


.401 -.209 -.008 .171 .207 -.070 .122 .664 .084


-.474 -.139 -.566 -.290 -.176 -.539 .026 -.518 .545


.370 .255 .446 .136 .176 .260 .065 .386 -.440


.468 .101 .247 .198 .227 .213 .058 .479 -.161


This campaign is effective to beat up

your opponent


Negative campaign

advertisement


q0007_0001 -.201 .183 .058Print media (newspaper, magazines, flyers)

-.046 -.346 -.141

Broadcast media (radio, tv) .034 .014 .034New media (phone apps, blogs, fb, path, pinterest, instagram, twitter)

-.422 .043 -.152


-.191 .651 -.101

153



-.281 -.328 .265


-.478 -.350 .138


.170 .192 -.128


-.180 -.239 .325


.401 -.474 .370


-.209 -.139 .255


-.008 -.566 .446


.171 -.290 .136


.207 -.176 .176


-.070 -.539 .260

People are being misguided .122 .026 .065This advertisement gives positive influences to the voters

.664 -.518 .386


.084 .545 -.440


1.000 -.224 .265


-.224 1.000 -.636

154



.265 -.636 1.000

Black campaign advertisement .463 -.581 .922

Inter-Item Covariance Matrix

q0007_0001

Print media (newspaper,

magazines,

flyers)

Broadcast

media (radio,

tv)

New media (phone apps, blogs,

fb, path,

pinterest,

instagram,

twitter)

I listen to news stories about

political

candidates

before voting.

If a politica

l candidate does

not have a

webpage, I will be less likely to vote

for him/her

.

When researching a

political

candidate on the

internet,

availability of information

on their beliefs

is importa

nt to me.

The internet

is a reliable source

for information on politica

l candida

tes.

The informa

tion presented on cable news about

political

candidates is

generally true.

q0007_0001 1.309 .265 1.184 1.015 .254 .371 .232 .621 .658Print media (newspaper, magazines, flyers)

.265 3.566 1.765 1.066 -.577 .765 .761 .515 .680


1.184 1.765 3.809 1.827 .191 .496 .294 1.184 .783

155



1.015 1.066 1.827 3.066 .235 1.015 .699 1.077 .930


.254 -.577 .191 .235 .434 .066 -.044 .129 .092


.371 .765 .496 1.015 .066 1.059 .607 .371 .783


.232 .761 .294 .699 -.044 .607 .846 .107 .290


.621 .515 1.184 1.077 .129 .371 .107 1.184 .471

156



.658 .680 .783 .930 .092 .783 .290 .471 1.015


.074 .831 .636 .143 -.074 .574 .118 .324 .651


.699 .143 .636 .956 .176 .761 .305 .761 .776


.537 .915 .349 .165 -.224 .849 .621 .224 .857


.235 1.121 .485 .246 -.048 .548 .489 .235 .632


.482 .699 .857 .324 .143 .732 .346 .482 .790

157



.037 .915 .224 .103 -.224 .599 .496 .224 .544

-.066 .265 .559 -.423 -.184 -.441 -.331 -.254 -.404

158


If a politica

l candidate does not use facebook, I

will be less

likely to vote

for him/her

.

q0007_0001 .074Print media (newspaper, magazines, flyers)

.831


.636


.143

159



-.074


.574


.118


.324

160



.651


1.279


.592


.640


.857


1.180

161



.765


-.239


1.059


-.268


.478


-.368


.254


.327

People are being misguided 162



-.103 .974 .022 -.401 -.272 .397 .235 .147 .239


-.452 -.379 -.577 -.504 .140 -.702 -.449 -.265 -.493


-.243 -.092 .070 -.779 -.132 -.305 -.463 .195 -.191


.143 -.449 .018 .051 .294 -.232 -.221 .143 -.165


.040 -.162 .040 -.162 -.040 .165 .077 -.085 .199


-.088 -.210 .037 -.272 -.037 .037 -.004 -.088 .107

Inter-Item Covariance Matrix

163


This campaign is effective to beat

up your opponent

Positive campaign

advertisement

Negative campaign

advertisement


q0007_0001 -.243 .143 .040 -.088Print media (newspaper, magazines, flyers)

-.092 -.449 -.162 -.210

Broadcast media (radio, tv) .070 .018 .040 .037


-.779 .051 -.162 -.272


-.132 .294 -.040 -.037


-.305 -.232 .165 .037


-.463 -.221 .077 -.004


.195 .143 -.085 -.088


-.191 -.165 .199 .107


.478 -.368 .254 .327


-.272 -.118 .191 .077


-.011 -.496 .346 .195


.217 -.239 .099 .147

164



.287 -.158 .140 .184


-.074 -.371 .158 .132

People are being misguided .132 .018 .040 .037This advertisement gives positive influences to the voters

.956 -.485 .320 .404


.092 .386 -.276 -.103


1.110 -.162 .169 .301


-.162 .471 -.265 -.246


.169 -.265 .368 .346


.301 -.246 .346 .382

Item-Total Statistics

Scale Mean if Item Deleted

Scale Variance if

Item Deleted

Corrected Item-Total Correlation

Squared Multiple

Correlation

Cronbach's Alpha if Item

Deleted

q0007_0001 63.2941 121.596 .467 . .792Print media (newspaper, magazines, flyers)

63.0000 111.500 .492 . .790


62.2941 108.721 .545 . .785


61.0000 117.000 .386 . .797

165



62.1765 134.529 -.018 . .810


63.2941 118.721 .665 . .783


62.5294 125.515 .404 . .796


63.2941 120.471 .546 . .788


63.7059 117.221 .754 . .779


64.0588 116.309 .701 . .780


63.0588 120.434 .469 . .791


63.6471 117.868 .548 . .786


63.4706 116.890 .630 . .782

166



63.5294 112.765 .725 . .775


63.6471 121.493 .551 . .789


62.2941 140.846 -.295 . .825


63.8824 120.110 .424 . .793


62.4706 146.890 -.530 . .834


63.1176 133.235 .014 . .813


63.9412 140.059 -.360 . .819


64.5882 131.132 .230 . .803


64.6471 131.743 .181 . .804

Summary Item Statistics

Mean Minimum Maximum Range Maximum /

Minimum

Variance N of Items

Item Means

3.011 1.588 5.235 3.647 3.296 .724 22

167


Scale Statistics

Mean Variance Std. Deviation N of Items

66.2353 134.691 11.60565 22

168


ATTACHMENT C (Independent Sample T-

Test)

COMPUTE Perception=(q0011_0001 + q0011_0002 + q0011_0003 + q0011_0004).EXECUTE.T-TEST GROUPS=q0002(1 2) /MISSING=ANALYSIS /VARIABLES=Perception /CRITERIA=CI(.95).

T-Test

Notes

Output Created 01-JUN-2015 00:52:10Comments

Input

Data/Users/ISJS/Downloads/result 4.sav

Active Dataset DataSet1Filter <none>Weight <none>Split File <none>N of Rows in Working Data File

220

Missing Value Handling

Definition of MissingUser defined missing values are treated as missing.

Cases Used

Statistics for each analysis are based on the cases with no missing or out-of-range data for any variable in the analysis.

169


Syntax

T-TEST GROUPS=q0002(1 2) /MISSING=ANALYSIS /VARIABLES=Perception /CRITERIA=CI(.95).

ResourcesProcessor Time 00:00:00.03

Elapsed Time 00:00:00.00

[DataSet1] /Users/ISJS/Downloads/result 4.sav



Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference

Lower Upper

Perception


-.40368 .40290 -1.19867 .39131


-.40368 .39742 -1.18786 .38050

170

Group Statistics

What is your age? N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean

Perception

13 to 25 years old (Generation Y)

84 12.8690 2.46312 .26875

26 to 54 years old (Generation X)

99 13.2727 2.91309 .29278


Levene's Test for Equality of Variances


F Sig. t df Sig. (2-tailed)

Perception


2.452 .119 -1.002 181 .318


-1.016 180.999 .311


171