thermal soaring forecasting skewt plots, boundary layers blipmaps, models and methods richard...
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THERMAL SOARING FORECASTINGTHERMAL SOARING FORECASTING SkewT Plots, Boundary Layers SkewT Plots, Boundary Layers
BLIPMAPS, Models and MethodsBLIPMAPS, Models and Methods
RICHARD KELLERMAN
SATURDAY , FEBRUARY 21, 2004
YOU DON’T NEED TO BE A WEATHERMAN 1YOU DON’T NEED TO BE A WEATHERMAN 1
YOU DON’T NEED TO BE A WEATHERMAN 2YOU DON’T NEED TO BE A WEATHERMAN 2
CONTENTCONTENT
WHY BOTHER?WHAT I CAN DOWHAT I CAN’T DO
CONTENT (CONT’D)CONTENT (CONT’D)
SKEWT’SBASIC BL PHYSICSBLIPMAPS AND THE RUC20 MODELMAKING THE FORECASTEXAMPLESGETTING THE DATA
WHY BOTHER?WHY BOTHER?
BLIPMAPS DO IT ALL SOMETIMES BLIPMAPS EXEMPLIFY THE POWER OF
COMPUTER GRAPHICS BLIPMAPS EXEMPLIFY THE LIMITATIONS ALSO WHAT’S UNDER THE HOOD? NOT DEPENDENT ON A SINGLE SOURCE
WHAT I CAN DOWHAT I CAN DO(WITHOUT BLIPMAPS)(WITHOUT BLIPMAPS)
ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS: WHEN LIFT WILL START AND END? HOW HIGH? HOW STRONG? WILL THERE BE CU? WILL THERE BE SPREADOUT? WILL THERE BE CONVECTIVE O.D?
WHAT I CAN’T DOWHAT I CAN’T DO(WITH OR WITHOUT BLIPMAPS)(WITH OR WITHOUT BLIPMAPS)
HANDLE CIRRUS WELL LOOK GOOD IN THE VICINITY OF FRONTS ACCOUNT FOR MICRO-SCALE EVENTS DEAL WITH WAVE SUPPRESSION PREDICT STREETING BE PRECISE ABOUT LIFT STRENGTH QUANTIFY TERRAIN EFFECTS
WHAT ONLY BLIPMAPS CAN DOWHAT ONLY BLIPMAPS CAN DO
PROVIDE USEFUL INFORMATION OVER A LARGE AREA
DEPICT BETTER AND WORSE CONDITIONS PROVIDE DETERMINISTIC LIFT STRENGTH
PREDICTIONS DITTO FOR THE BUOYANCY/SHEAR RATIO
WHAT’S THIS?WHAT’S THIS?
SKEWT’SSKEWT’S
COMPACT DATA DISPLAY (GRAPHS)BALLOON SOUNDINGSMODEL SOUNDINGSCALCULATORS IDEAL FOR THERMAL SOARING
FORECASTSRECAP
TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE AXESTEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE AXES
ADD DRY ADIABATSADD DRY ADIABATS
ADD CONSTANT MIXING RATIO LINESADD CONSTANT MIXING RATIO LINES“8 GM/KG”
DETAILS (SLIDE 1)
MAKING CLOUDS MAKING CLOUDS
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT LAPSE RATESLAPSE RATES
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATE ~5.3 F o/1,000 FT. DEWPOINT LAPSE RATE ~0.9 F o/1,000 FT
CLOUDBASE = ((T – DP) / 4.4) * 1,000 FT
LAPSE RATES AND ADIABATSLAPSE RATES AND ADIABATS
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATE DEWPOINT LAPSE RATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SATURATED ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE T AND DP LAPSE RATES ARE DATA DALR’S AND SALR’S ARE CALCULATED THEY ARE RESPECTIVELY ~3C/1,000 FT AND ~2C/1,000 FT THE “SURFACE ADIABAT” IS THE (DRY) ADIABAT PASSING
THROUGH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE CONVECTIVELY MIXED BL:
T LAPSE RATE = DALR
TEMPERATURE AND DP ALOFTTEMPERATURE AND DP ALOFT
GOOD DAY WITH CUGOOD DAY WITH CU
FORECASTS PM SOUNDING METHOD
GOOD DAY – NO CU GOOD DAY – NO CU
SOARING FORECASTS PM SOUNDING METHOD
BAD DAY BAD DAY (MIFFLIN, 2001 5/19)(MIFFLIN, 2001 5/19)
SOARING FORECASTSSOARING FORECASTS“THERMAL INDEX/AM SOUNDING METHOD”“THERMAL INDEX/AM SOUNDING METHOD”
(SLIDE 1)(SLIDE 1)
GET AM SOUNDING GET FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS CONSTRUCT SURFACE ADIABAT FOR
TRIGGER CONSTRUCT OTHER SURFACE ADIABATS
AS DESIRED
SOARING FORECASTSSOARING FORECASTS“THERMAL INDEX/AM SOUNDING METHOD”“THERMAL INDEX/AM SOUNDING METHOD”
(SLIDE 2)(SLIDE 2)
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF THE CONVECTIVE BLA DAY IN THE LIFE OF THE CONVECTIVE BL
THE FOLLOWING SEQUENCE SHOWS WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED ON SEPTEMBER 10 2003 AT ABE
IT ALSO MAKES VERY CLEAR ONE OF TWO FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS WITH THE AM SOUNDING/TI METHOD
8:00 AM8:00 AM
11:00 AM11:00 AM
2:00 PM2:00 PM
5:00 PM5:00 PM
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTIONTEMPERATURE EVOLUTION
SOARING FORECASTS, “TI” METHOD (SLIDE 2)
DEWPOINT EVOLUTIONDEWPOINT EVOLUTION
WHEN GOOD CLOUDS GO BAD, SLIDE 1WHEN GOOD CLOUDS GO BAD, SLIDE 1
WHEN GOOD CLOUDS GO BAD, SLIDE 2WHEN GOOD CLOUDS GO BAD, SLIDE 2
NUMERICAL MODELSNUMERICAL MODELS
RUC20/MAPS BLIPMAPS RUC VERSIONS
SOME OF WHAT THE RUC20 MODELSSOME OF WHAT THE RUC20 MODELS
TERRAIN SOIL MOISTURE LAND USE INCLUDING VEGETATION COVER CLOUD PHYSICS RADIATIONAL FLUXES CONVECTION ADVECTION 3D PRESSURE
RUC20 VEGETATION CANOPY AND RUC20 VEGETATION CANOPY AND SOIL PHYSICSSOIL PHYSICS
NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, RUC Development Group
RUC20 DATA INPUTSRUC20 DATA INPUTS
NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, RUC Development Group
SOME RUC20 ASSUMPTIONSSOME RUC20 ASSUMPTIONS
20 KM GRID50 LAYER ATMOSPHERE
RUC20 TERRAIN RESOLUTIONRUC20 TERRAIN RESOLUTION
NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, RUC Development Group
RUC20 2M TEMPERATURE PERFORMANCERUC20 2M TEMPERATURE PERFORMANCE
NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, RUC Development Group
RUC20 WIND FORECAST ERRORSRUC20 WIND FORECAST ERRORS
NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, RUC Development Group
RUC20 RAOB VERIFICATIONRUC20 RAOB VERIFICATION
NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, RUC Development Group
RUC20 SCHEDULERUC20 SCHEDULE
SOARING FORECASTS SOARING FORECASTS PM SOUNDING METHODPM SOUNDING METHOD
GET THE RUC20 PM SOUNDINGS CONSTRUCT THE SURFACE ADIABAT PASSING
THROUGH THE (2M) SURFACE VIRTUAL TEMPERATURE
DETERMINE HEIGHT OF LIFT ESTIMATE STRENGTH OF LIFT DETERMINE CLOUDBASE ASSESS THE CHANCE OF LATERAL OR VERTICAL OD ASSESS THE SENSITIVITY OF THE FORECAST TO DP
AND/OR T ERRORS
GOOD DAY – NO CU
GOOD DAY WITH CU
MIFFLINMIFFLIN 2001 P2: FORECAST 2001 P2: FORECAST
MIFFLIN 2001 P2: WHAT MIFFLIN 2001 P2: WHAT HAPPENED (SLIDE 1)HAPPENED (SLIDE 1)
STRONG LIFT WITH CU AT 7,000 FTQV’S AND X’S DAY
MIFFLIN 2001 P2: WHAT MIFFLIN 2001 P2: WHAT HAPPENED (SLIDE 2)HAPPENED (SLIDE 2)
EVERYONE ELSE’S DAYHEAVY RAIN SHOWERSBROTHER UNABLE TO LAND60 MPH GUST AT THE FIELDSPREADOUTDISGRUNTLED PILOTS
BLIPMAPSBLIPMAPS
SUPPLEMENTS COMPLEMENTS PAINTS THE SOUNDING GRID DATA THERMAL STRENGTH IS DETERMINISTIC
(NOT EMPIRICAL)
PREPARING THE PREPARING THE FORECAST (SLIDE 1)FORECAST (SLIDE 1)
1. SURFACE ANALYSIS
2. FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
3. SATELLITE IMAGERY
4. SURFACE OBSERVATION
PREPARING THE PREPARING THE FORECAST (SLIDE 2)FORECAST (SLIDE 2)
1. SKEWT PLOTS
2. BLIPMAP
DETAILS (SLIDE 1)DETAILS (SLIDE 1)
VIRTUAL TEMPERATURETV = T + W/6
VISIBILITYWIND SHEARCIRRUS
ADD CONSTANT MIXING RATIO LINES
SENSITIVITY ANALYSISSENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PRE-EMPTIVE EXCUSES HIGH INVERSION SURFACE DEWPOINT CLOSE TO CU/BLUE POINT SMALL T/DP SPREAD AT CLOUDBASE LITTLE OR NO INVERSION
SMALL T.I. – LOW INVERSIONSMALL T.I. – LOW INVERSION
SMALL T.I. – HIGH INVERSIONSMALL T.I. – HIGH INVERSION
GLIDER PILOTS ARE A BIG PART GLIDER PILOTS ARE A BIG PART OF THE PROBLEMOF THE PROBLEM
FORECASTS DEAL IN AVERAGES GLIDER PILOTS FLY FROM ONE MICRO
SCALE ANOMALY TO ANOTHER HOW TO FIND LIFT
SUMMARYSUMMARY
WEATHER IS BASIC TO GLIDING UNDERSTANDING IT IS REWARDING UNDERSTANDING FORECAST
LIMITATIONS HELPS YOU CAN AND SHOULD DO YOUR OWN
FORECASTS