THECB 1/2007

Participation Forecast Participation Forecast andand

Report on Participation and Report on Participation and Success Progress Success Progress

January 25, 2007January 25, 2007

THECB 1/2007

Participation ForecastParticipation Forecast Designed to reflect current trends, and Designed to reflect current trends, and

be conservativebe conservative 5 years of historical enrollment by age, 5 years of historical enrollment by age,

race/ethnicity, and countyrace/ethnicity, and county Uses new population projectionsUses new population projections Projected population by age, Projected population by age,

race/ethnicity, and countyrace/ethnicity, and county Non-resident participation factorsNon-resident participation factors Institutional input on local conditionsInstitutional input on local conditions

THECB 1/2007

2015 Projection is lower than 2015 Projection is lower than previous forecastprevious forecast

Population projections decreased due to Population projections decreased due to change in the recommended migration change in the recommended migration rate which:rate which:

– Lowered statewide population projectionLowered statewide population projection

– Difference largest for HispanicsDifference largest for Hispanics

Most recent five-year enrollment trend Most recent five-year enrollment trend flatter than that used two years agoflatter than that used two years ago

THECB 1/2007

Changes in Population ProjectionsChanges in Population Projectionsfor 2015for 2015

2004 Projectio

n

2006 Projectio

n

% Chang

e

Total 28,060,000 26,160,000 -6.8%

Anglo 11,780,000 11,690,000 -0.7%

African-Am 3,030,000 2,910,000 -3.8%

Hispanic 11,860,000 10,440,000 -12.0%

Source: Texas State Data Center

THECB 1/2007

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000Actual Forecast

Forecasted EnrollmentPublic Colleges and Universities

THECB 1/2007

2004 and 2006 Participation 2004 and 2006 Participation Forecast DifferencesForecast Differences

1,150,000

1,250,000

1,350,000

2005 2010 2015

2004 Forecast 2006 Forecast

1,317,000

1,292,000

THECB 1/2007

Closing the GapsClosing the Gaps vs Forecast vs Forecast

Closing the GapsClosing the Gaps

Based on where Based on where Texas wants be by Texas wants be by 20152015

Expect changes to Expect changes to happen to reach happen to reach goalsgoals

ForecastForecast

Based on the historic Based on the historic trends trends

What will happen if What will happen if current patterns do current patterns do NOTNOT change change

THECB 1/2007

Close the Gaps in Close the Gaps in ParticipationParticipation

By 2015, close the gaps in By 2015, close the gaps in enrollment rates across Texas to enrollment rates across Texas to add 630,000 more students.add 630,000 more students.

THECB 1/2007

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Actual/Forecast CTGs Goals

Institutional Targets

Given Current Trends Texas Will Not Reach Closing the Gaps 5.7% Goal

Public Colleges and Universities

THECB 1/2007

11%

50%

27%

12%

Higher Education is more diverse Higher Education is more diverse

African-Am.

HispanicWhite

Other

Fall 2006

11%

23%

56%

10%

African-Am.

White

Hispanic

Fall 2000

Other

THECB 1/2007

2010 Hispanic Target remains2010 Hispanic Target remains a big challenge a big challenge

140,047

15,67883,990

126,523

51,68434,159

96,55954,618

35,830

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

240,000

2010 Insts. Targets

2010 CTG Target

2006 Progress

* Asians are not targeted in the plan.

White Hispanic African-Am

THECB 1/2007

4 Regions account for 91% of Hispanic 4 Regions account for 91% of Hispanic enrollment increase fall 2005 to fall 2006enrollment increase fall 2005 to fall 2006

Metroplex, 17.8%

Others, 9.0%

Gulf Coast, 21.4%

So. Texas, 36.0%

Central Tx, 15.8%

THECB 1/2007

Changes In Rate of IncreaseChanges In Rate of Increase

Decrease in the number of delayed-entry Decrease in the number of delayed-entry studentsstudents

University University – One-year persistence is stableOne-year persistence is stable– Two-year persistence dropped in 2002 and is Two-year persistence dropped in 2002 and is

reboundingrebounding

Two-Year CollegesTwo-Year Colleges– One- and two-year persistence is stableOne- and two-year persistence is stable

THECB 1/2007

108,778108,691105,63699,54194,84992,51088,59286,962

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

The percent of students entering from public high schools increased slightly.

(44.1%)(43.6%) (43.4%)(44.1%)(44.2%)

Percent of GraduatingClass

(44.4%) (45.4%)

Into public higher education only.

(44.5%)

THECB 1/2007

Participation SummaryParticipation Summary

Fall 2006 enrollments represented 2.1% Fall 2006 enrollments represented 2.1% growth over previous fall; low rate but growth over previous fall; low rate but better than 0.9% growth from fall 2004 to better than 0.9% growth from fall 2004 to fall 2005fall 2005

Hispanic enrollment growth was Hispanic enrollment growth was substantial but continues to trail targetssubstantial but continues to trail targets

Percentage of students coming directly Percentage of students coming directly from high school increased slightlyfrom high school increased slightly

THECB 1/2007

Close the Gaps in Close the Gaps in SuccessSuccess

By 2015, award 210,000 undergraduate By 2015, award 210,000 undergraduate degrees, certificates and other identifiable degrees, certificates and other identifiable student successes from high quality student successes from high quality programs.programs.

THECB 1/2007

31,460 more Bachelor’s, Associate’s 31,460 more Bachelor’s, Associate’s and Certificates awarded than in 2000and Certificates awarded than in 2000

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2005 2010 2015

Th

ou

san

ds

Target Actual

31,460

93,765

THECB 1/2007

University Graduation Rates University Graduation Rates Increasing Increasing

Graduation Rate FY 1999 FY 2005

4-Year 19.9% 24.3%

5-Year 39.7% 48.1%

6-Year 49.2% 56.7%

Graduation & Persistence 63.5% 70.3%

Transfers’ Grad Rate 49.3% 52.2%

Students Receiving Pell 25.7% 31.6%

THECB 1/2007

Two-Year CollegesTwo-Year CollegesGraduation and Persistence IncreasingGraduation and Persistence Increasing

FY 2000 FY 2005

Bachelor’s Degrees 12.6% 16.3%

Associate’s Degrees 8.7% 9.9%

Certificates 4.4% 4.4%

Persisting 12.3% 13.4%

Total Grad & Persist Rate 38.0% 44.0%

THECB 1/2007

Public Institutions’ Bachelor’s targets still Public Institutions’ Bachelor’s targets still below the 2010 Closing the Gapsbelow the 2010 Closing the Gaps

7,163

21,115

13,04711,763

14,263

5,664

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

2010 Insts' Targets

To Reach 2010 CTG Target

2006 Progress

Bachelor’s Associate’s

THECB 1/2007

Public Doctoral Institutional targetsPublic Doctoral Institutional targetsExceed 2010 Closing the Gaps targetExceed 2010 Closing the Gaps target

1,201

422

120

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500 2010 Insts' Targets

To Reach 2010 CTG Target

2006 Progress

THECB 1/2007

Institutional Targets for Undergraduate Institutional Targets for Undergraduate Minority Awards’ are Far Short Minority Awards’ are Far Short

3,403

17,5189,976 11,806

14,177

13,492

4,6206,254

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000 2010 Insts' Target

To Reach 2010 CTG Target

2006 Progress

* Not targeted in the Plan.

White* Hispanic African-Am.

THECB 1/2007

How can we increase graduates in How can we increase graduates in critical fields?critical fields?

4,075

11,022

4,997

501

3,018

5,380

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,0002010 Insts' TargetTo Reach 2010 CTG Target2006 Progress

Technology Nursing/Allied Health

THECB 1/2007

Technology degree change is not Technology degree change is not consistent across disciplinesconsistent across disciplines

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

ComputerScience

Engineering Math PhysicalScience

2000 2003 2006

THECB 1/2007

UG awards in Allied Health and Nursing UG awards in Allied Health and Nursing continue to improve continue to improve

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

THECB 1/2007

Percentage increase in UG awards at public Percentage increase in UG awards at public institutions greatest for underrepresented groupsinstitutions greatest for underrepresented groups

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

White African-Am Hispanic Other

Fall 2000 Fall 2006

+15.0%

+31.0%

+51.4%

+55.3%

THECB 1/2007

Next Steps?Next Steps?

Revise strategies for each Revise strategies for each Closing the Closing the GapsGaps area to focus efforts on pertinent area to focus efforts on pertinent activities that lead to genuine progressactivities that lead to genuine progress

Concentrate on Hispanic participation and Concentrate on Hispanic participation and success success